Re: North Korea: Threat or Blackmailer?
 

Its certainly possible it may not be a test.
Our analysts have stated that they do not have a missle that can reach Guam.
If that is correct and its not a test then South Korea or Japan will get nuked tomorrow.

Or we will shoot it down right after it enters international space.
Imagine the can of worms that will open.

Re: North Korea: Threat or Blackmailer?
 

[quote=CRedskinsRule;1002649]I just don't understand why people(media) assume this is a test. I hope that the military isn't assuming that. I think he believes his country to be on equal par with the US now that he has useful nukes, and his military believes in the strength of numbers in terms of soldiers.[/quote]

If it were an actual attack, do you think they'd be so obvious about it? One would think they'd be more sneaky.

Also, saying North Korea has "useful" nukes is a bit of an overstatement. they've only got a handful of nukes, and i'd be shocked if anyof them were even hiroshima-grade. Also, their missles dont have the range to go much further than Japan. I'm not saying countries in the region shouldnt be worried, but i'm not worried about N Koreas actual threat to the US.

The US and allied countries have thousands of nukes with essentially unlimited range, most of which are significantly more powerful than anything North Korea has.

North Korea might [I]think[/I] its on par with the US, but its not.

Re: North Korea: Threat or Blackmailer?
 

Japan getting hit by a NK nuke would just be sad, honestly in the great scheme of things what did Japan do to anybody to be the worlds nuclear wasteland?

I certainly don't think that NK is on par with us, but they do, and in terms of useful nukes, it only takes a few IF they use them. For all the nukes we have, there is no chance in this world that we would nuke NK, even if they nuked Japan. Korea would be a land war, and if NK felt they could launch a few nukes to equalize the battlefield, I think they might. They hate Japan, and have re-run articles on Japan's poor record when Korea was a colony of Japan.

I really hope that I've just bought into the paranoia, and that it all settles down in the next few days.

Re: North Korea: Threat or Blackmailer?
 

[quote=CRedskinsRule;1002704]Japan getting hit by a NK nuke would just be sad, honestly in the great scheme of things what did Japan do to anybody to be the worlds nuclear wasteland?

I certainly don't think that NK is on par with us, but they do, and in terms of useful nukes, it only takes a few IF they use them. For all the nukes we have, there is no chance in this world that we would nuke NK, even if they nuked Japan. [B]Korea would be a land war,[/B] and if NK felt they could launch a few nukes to equalize the battlefield, I think they might. They hate Japan, and have re-run articles on Japan's poor record when Korea was a colony of Japan.

I really hope that I've just bought into the paranoia, and that it all settles down in the next few days.[/quote]

I think the days of land wars are over. Theres simply no reason for it. I'd see tons of stealth areal bombings and Guerrilla warefare. theres no reason to send thousands of soldiers into battle if you can send in a few seal teams to paint targets and let planes take em out.

I also dont think the NK could nuke South Korea or Japan without equivalent retalliation.

Re: North Korea: Threat or Blackmailer?
 

[quote=BigHairedAristocrat;1002707]I think the days of land wars are over. Theres simply no reason for it. I'd see tons of stealth areal bombings and Guerrilla warefare. theres no reason to send thousands of soldiers into battle if you can send in a few seal teams to paint targets and let planes take em out.

I also dont think the NK could nuke South Korea or Japan without equivalent retalliation.[/quote]

How would you then hold the ground, rebuild the infrastructure and convert the people to happy quasi-Americans?

At some point you have to put boots on the ground unless it's just a retributive strike/scorched earth deal.

Re: North Korea: Threat or Blackmailer?
 

[quote=BigHairedAristocrat;1002707][B]I think the days of land wars are over. Theres simply no reason for it.[/B] I'd see tons of stealth areal bombings and Guerrilla warefare. theres no reason to send thousands of soldiers into battle if you can send in a few seal teams to paint targets and let planes take em out.

I also dont think the NK could nuke South Korea or Japan without equivalent retalliation.[/quote]
What do you call Afghanistan? I will not get started on the level of wounded soldiers coming back, or the dead, but NK is a land of tunnels and hardened bunkers. When you say guerrilla warfare, I am calling that land warfare, armed forces trying to recapture highland from a numerically superior enemy. Can we, and would we win, yes - depending on casualty count, and public reaction. But remember this is an entire society that lives day to day basically only on the glory and eventual defeat of the US. They have very little else to compare life too.

Re: North Korea: Threat or Blackmailer?
 

[quote=RedskinRat;1002711]How would you then hold the ground, rebuild the infrastructure and convert the people to happy quasi-Americans?

At some point you have to put boots on the ground unless it's just a retributive strike/scorched earth deal.[/quote]

North Korea is so indoctrinated/brainwashed,* I imagine any sort rebuilding infrastructure/conversion would be 100 times more difficult than in Iraq/Afghanistan. I dont see the US wanting to get involved in that. In all honesty, if Iraq didnt have oil, i think there would have bee more of a scorched earth approach there. North Korea has absolutely nothing the rest of the world cares about. I dont think a strong argument could be made not to take the scorched earth approach. Maybe im just cynical.

*[I]Note - this is where you accuse me of the same prejudice i accused you of in the middle eastern thread. :)[/I]

Re: North Korea: Threat or Blackmailer?
 

[quote=BigHairedAristocrat;1002694]

Also, saying North Korea has "useful" nukes is a bit of an overstatement. they've only got a handful of nukes, and i'd be shocked if anyof them were even hiroshima-grade. Also, their missles dont have the range to go much further than Japan. [/quote]


I stand corrected. North Korea has tested a missle that could hit Alaska.

[url=http://edition.cnn.com/interactive/2013/04/world/north-korea-missile-capabilities/]North Korea's missile capabilities[/url]

Re: North Korea: Threat or Blackmailer?
 

We also don't know what size nuke they actually have tested, only what we assume they have. Certainly they aren't going to be volleying hundreds of nukes a la WarGames, but they don't have to start a major confrontation.

Serious question: Hypothetically they test fire a long range ICBM, or even a midrange missile capable of hitting Guam, with a live nuke on it. But they aim it away from a live target, ie japan/guam. It explodes harmlessly in the pacific, but the point is made that they could have reached Guam effectively. What step should the US take?

Re: North Korea: Threat or Blackmailer?
 

Send in a QRF and abduct and hold Un after a UN resolution supporting action against a rogue state. Probably atek a week or two, but let's do things right.

Re: North Korea: Threat or Blackmailer?
 

[quote=CRedskinsRule;1002725]We also don't know what size nuke they actually have tested, only what we assume they have. Certainly they aren't going to be volleying hundreds of nukes a la WarGames, but they don't have to start a major confrontation.

Serious question: Hypothetically they test fire a long range ICBM, or even a midrange missile capable of hitting Guam, with a live nuke on it. But they aim it away from a live target, ie japan/guam. It explodes harmlessly in the pacific, but the point is made that they could have reached Guam effectively. What step should the US take?[/quote]

Surrender lol

Re: North Korea: Threat or Blackmailer?
 

[quote=BigHairedAristocrat;1002728]Surrender lol[/quote]

Perhaps this would be more appropriate?
[url=http://www.rodong.rep.kp/InterEn/index.php?strPageID=SF01_02_01&newsID=2013-04-09-0001&chAction=T]Floral Basket, Congratulatory Letters to Kim Jong Un[/url]

Re: North Korea: Threat or Blackmailer?
 

[quote=CRedskinsRule;1002729]Perhaps this would be more appropriate?
[url=http://www.rodong.rep.kp/InterEn/index.php?strPageID=SF01_02_01&newsID=2013-04-09-0001&chAction=T]Floral Basket, Congratulatory Letters to Kim Jong Un[/url][/quote]

Wtf is wrong with these people?

Re: North Korea: Threat or Blackmailer?
 

[quote=BigHairedAristocrat;1002747]Wtf is wrong with these people?[/quote]

I agree. I looked through their news releases trying to just kinda prove to myself that this was the normal junk they do every year, but this year's releases are just so far out there, even compared to their normal loopiness.


This is the headline banner from their daily newspaper (the Rodong Sinmun):
[quote]All out for a general offensive to achieve the prosperity of the
great Kim Il Sung's nation, Kim Jong Il's Korea![/quote]

Re: North Korea: Threat or Blackmailer?
 

[quote=BigHairedAristocrat;1002707][B]I think the days of land wars are over. [/B]Theres simply no reason for it. I'd see tons of stealth areal bombings and Guerrilla warefare. theres no reason to send thousands of soldiers into battle if you can send in a few seal teams to paint targets and let planes take em out.

I also dont think the NK could nuke South Korea or Japan without equivalent retalliation.[/quote]

What do you think the Iraq war was? Sure we hit them first by air but our main attack was by land and they ran the other way.