Re: Palin to resign
 

[quote=12thMan;567700]Yeah, TPaw is solid and I like him but, again, he doesn't have that it factor. I'm telling you Obama screwed shit up for the next boring run-of-the-mill politician. As much as Republicans hate on Obama's celebrity factor, they would like to have their own version of Obama. Of course someone who stands for conservative principles and values, but someone electrifying nonetheless.

Tell you guys a quick story. The only time I'll share an actual campaign experience.


One Sunday morning two elderly caucasion ladies (had to be in their early to mid eighties) walked into our Charlotte, NC office looking around. I approached them and asked if I could help them with something. I honest to goodness thought they were either lost or spying for the GOP. Seriously, this is what briefly ran through my head. They told me they wanted to get to work - now! Now I'm kind of reeling and I didn't want to ask them obvious. Mam, are you supporting Senator Obama? Of course we are! What do you think we're doing here? Shit, I can't send them into some bad ass AfAm neighborhood knocking on doors. I didn't have any lists ready for them to call folks. So I grabbed a stack of voter registration forms, two highlighters and put them to work. I came back in about an hour and they were ready for more.

Finally I had to ask the what, who, when, and why? They told me all the history of growing in NC as kids, about racism and politics, and good old Jesse Helms. I was truly captivated. But then I point blanked them and asked what prompted them to come down and volunteer today. Almost without hesitation it was the nomination of Sarah Palin that had gotten them so pissed that they had to get work. One of them stood up and started wagging her finger in the air and swearing. Looked like they had just come from church too.

But I say all of that to say this, Sarah Palin has the ability to make an emotional connection with voters. Those that like her and those that hate her. Mitt Romney, for all of his political savvy, doesn't have that. I'm willing to say Pawlenty doesn't either. I guess the real question is will some eighty year old women down in North Carolina or in somewhere in rural Pennsylvania see Mitt and Tim worthy enough to forfeit their Sunday afternoons. I can almost assure you that there are a few that would do it for Palin.[/quote]


Nice...they hope Obama is Carter, they unknowingly compare him to FDR thinking it's a negative, and they fail to see he has a Reagan like celebrity. All good news.

Re: Palin to resign
 

[quote=12thMan;567692]As unqualified as I personally think Sarah Palin is, I don't see Romney beating her. I thought so about three months ago, but not now. If she can survive this latest misstep with how she abruptly resigned, she'll be in good shape going down the road.

Someone mentioned the economy being Romney's strength. Romney has kept his nose clean for as long as anyone can remember, gives substantive interviews (although I think his foreign policy views seem to be more rhetoric than anything else), he's actually governed a state [I]and[/I] has executive experience. On paper Mitt Romney is a ten. But the economy was bad when John McCain was running for office and Romney still couldn't get his party's nomination. And I don't think it will be any different 3 1/2 years from now. So the notion that if the economy is still bad in a few years, that favors Romney, is a false argument in my opinion. In fact, he and Obama have very similiar views on how they would deal with GM.

Secondly, Palin with all of her demons and drawbacks commands media attention like no other politician except for President Obama. This is a huge plus for her. If she can figure out how to use that as an asset instead of a liability, Romney won't stand a chance. One more thing that Palin has going for her that Mitt Romney doesn't and that's the forgiveness factor. It seems to me that people are more willing to overlook Palin's flaws and give her a second chance whereas I don't sense the same type of goodwill towards Romney. He has to be damn near perfect; in fact, that's what people don't like about him. He comes off as the perfect candidate.[/quote]Makes a lot of sense. Also the campaign story was great. The only point about the economy and Romney/McCain was that the economy had some early indicators of sputtering but didn't really tank until after McCain had the nomination.

Unfortunately though, I'm concerned your analysis is correct looking at the current field of GOP hopefuls. The nomination will be simply a popularity contest and in that light Palin will certainly win. She'll have over two years to prep and will likely not make the same mistakes she did in 2008. Unless someone comes out of nowhere that's a better candidate, I'll be pulling for Romney.

Re: Palin to resign
 

Whats so electrifying about a man who cannot go anywhere without his teleprompter with words other men have written?

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jiow64UjuQQ]YouTube - President Obama's Teleprompter Crashes During Speech![/ame]

Re: Palin to resign
 

[quote=Slingin Sammy 33;567704]Makes a lot of sense. Also the campaign story was great. The only point about the economy and Romney/McCain was that the economy had some early indicators of sputtering but didn't really tank until after McCain had the nomination.

Unfortunately though, I'm concerned your analysis is correct looking at the current field of GOP hopefuls. The nomination will be simply a popularity contest and in that light Palin will certainly win. She'll have over two years to prep and will likely not make the same mistakes she did in 2008. Unless someone comes out of nowhere that's a better candidate, I'll be pulling for Romney.[/quote]

Palin (and why does it sound like I'm tooting her horn today? Weird) has an Op-Ed in today's Washington Post. She's slamming Obama on cap and trade. It's a pretty good piece.

Re: Palin to resign
 

[quote=saden1;567646]LOL....funny...I'm not entirely convinced the GOP will be up to the task. You kinda have to have an attractive platform and ideas to get to people to vote for you. [B]I know you guys loath Obama[/B] but don't let all the hate cloud your judgment, he's a f'ing jugernuat and jugernauts never lose the second time around. Like the Emperor said, "search your feelings, Lord GMScud. You will know it to be true. He could destroy [you]."

If I was a rich man I would send you a $100 too but I'm not. Good luck.[/quote]

I don't loathe Obama. I think he's a smart guy and a brilliant orator. I dislike his politics. Hate is a strong word. I think he's trying to do too much too fast with way too big of a price tag. I also think he's directly contradicted several of his campaign promises, although every politician does.

He's a media darling who ran a fantastic campaign. That sure as hell doesn't make him a good president. He's slipping in the polls - a sign of buyers remorse by many IMO. I'm not cynical enough to cheer for our Commander and Cheif to fail - the exact opposite really. I just don't have much confidence in the man.

Re: Palin to resign
 

[quote=saden1;567694][yt]mfjvKT-tu7E[/yt][/quote]
Classic. It's amazing what you can find on YouTube. There's only one Bruce, shame he passed so early.

Re: Palin to resign
 

[quote=GMScud;567708]I don't loathe Obama. I think he's a smart guy and a brilliant orator. I dislike his politics. Hate is a strong word. I think he's trying to do too much too fast with way too big of a price tag. I also think he's directly contradicted several of his campaign promises, although every politician does.

He's a media darling who ran a fantastic campaign. That sure as hell doesn't make him a good president. He's slipping in the polls - a sign of buyers remorse by many IMO. I'm not cynical enough to cheer for our Commander and Cheif to fail - the exact opposite really. I just don't have much confidence in the man.[/quote]

There's a good website out there, don't have it at my fingertips but actually tracks all of his campaign promises broken. He's holding his own I must say. He hasn't kept every single one, most he hasn't gotten to yet but I think it's like six he's broken so far. One of them they nailed him on not posting a bill on the internet as long as he said he would. They've done this a couple of times. But a promise is a promise. I can't think of any "big" promises or contradictions though. Not that I know every single one anyway.

As far as the polls he's still at a solid 58/59, depending on which one you like. Gallup has him at 60% right now. And he's right where Reagan was during this point in his presidency. But the polls don't tell the entire story. I constantly hear pundits and critics fixated on Obama's poll numbers pointing to slipperage as evidence of buyers remorse. I think there's some of that at play but also for the first time in a long time, people are paying attention to what their government is doing - and what they said they would do. So in part, I think people are truly engaged. Secondly, I can't remember any of his predecessors taking over during two wars and one of the worst economies in recent history, a bankrupt auto industry and a banking industry in crisis. So I think those numbers have to be put in proper perspective with those realities in mind and not as a partisan issue.

Re: Palin to resign
 

GMSCud, he's up to seven broken promises.

Here you go: [url=http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/]PolitiFact | Sorting out the truth in politics[/url]

Re: Palin to resign
 

[quote=12thMan;567720]GMSCud, he's up to seven broken promises.

Here you go: [URL="http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/"]PolitiFact | Sorting out the truth in politics[/URL][/quote]

Well like their rating system I give that a HALF TRUTH. He has broken seven promisses but some of those he has broken over and over again. Do you really think that more Americans are now paying more attention to goverment?

Re: Palin to resign
 

[quote=12thMan;567720]GMSCud, he's up to seven broken promises.

Here you go: [URL="http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/"]PolitiFact | Sorting out the truth in politics[/URL][/quote]

Thanks for the link, 12th. Looking around I saw this interesting [URL="http://www.reason.com/blog/show/134282.html"]blog regarding someone's opinion[/URL] (looks libertarian to me?) of the Promises Kept and the Promises Broken. The blogger seems to focus on each promise as a more government or less government.

Re: Palin to resign
 

[quote=12thMan;567707]Palin (and why does it sound like I'm tooting her horn today? Weird) has an Op-Ed in today's Washington Post. She's slamming Obama on cap and trade. It's a pretty good piece.[/quote]

does she know what she's talking about though?

[url=http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2009/07/sarah-palin-does-not-understand-cap-and-trade.html]The Daily Dish | By Andrew Sullivan[/url]

Re: Palin to resign
 

[quote=12thMan;567717]There's a good website out there, don't have it at my fingertips but actually tracks all of his campaign promises broken. He's holding his own I must say. He hasn't kept every single one, most he hasn't gotten to yet but I think it's like six he's broken so far. One of them they nailed him on not posting a bill on the internet as long as he said he would. They've done this a couple of times. But a promise is a promise. I can't think of any "big" promises or contradictions though. Not that I know every single one anyway.

As far as the polls he's still at a solid 58/59, depending on which one you like. Gallup has him at 60% right now. And he's right where Reagan was during this point in his presidency. But the polls don't tell the entire story. I constantly hear pundits and critics fixated on Obama's poll numbers pointing to slipperage as evidence of buyers remorse. I think there's some of that at play but also for the first time in a long time, people are paying attention to what their government is doing - and what they said they would do. So in part, I think people are truly engaged. Secondly, I can't remember any of his predecessors taking over during two wars and one of the worst economies in recent history, a bankrupt auto industry and a banking industry in crisis. So I think those numbers have to be put in proper perspective with those realities in mind and not as a partisan issue.[/quote]

Good points. I agree that he entered office in the midst of a shit storm more severe than any his predecessors faced. I also realize that he was rock star popular at the time of his election (I think he can thank Bush's unpopularity for a lot of that), so he really had no where to go but down in the polls.

I don't get any joy out of this, but I think he's broken a few more than 6.

[url=http://foxforum.blogs.foxnews.com/2009/03/03/kerpen_obama_budget/]Obama’s Top Five Broken Promises « FOX Forum « FOXNews.com[/url]

[url=http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/article/2009/apr/24/first-100-days-obamas-promises-broken/]PolitiFact | First 100 Days: Obama's Promises Broken[/url]

[url=http://www.infowars.com/obamas-broken-promises/]Obama’s Broken Promises[/url]

[url=http://www.wnd.com/index.php/index.php?pageId=91286]Obama racks up list of broken promises[/url]

Re: Palin to resign
 

[quote=12thMan;567707][B]Palin (and why does it sound like I'm tooting her horn today? Weird) has an Op-Ed in today's Washington Post. She's slamming Obama on cap and trade. It's a pretty good piece[/B].[/quote]

And one which Peggy Noonan undoubtedly believes Palin did not actually write.

Re: Palin to resign
 

[quote=724Skinsfan;567722]Thanks for the link, 12th. Looking around I saw this interesting [URL="http://www.reason.com/blog/show/134282.html"]blog regarding someone's opinion[/URL] (looks libertarian to me?) of the Promises Kept and the Promises Broken. The blogger seems to focus on each promise as a more government or less government.[/quote]

Also an interesting link. One commenter said the following:
"And the true tax level is the amount of money the government spends. The rest is just details about when the taxes are going to be levied."

[Reminds me of the joke, (I'm sure everyone knows it) about the guy asking to sleep with a woman for $1million, when she agrees, he says great, here's $20.]

I would be shocked if Pres. Obama does not get a full 8yrs in office, what will be the telling tale will be if the Republicans can make any gains in the House. In order to do that, I believe, a large number of people in local elections will have to be sending Small Government advocates to the House. No big spending Republican is gonna get elected, because the Democrats hold the funding keys. We need to remember that Pres. Obama was not a long standing national politician, having only served in the Senate for 3 years. I believe People are looking for that right balance, or new style politician who can appear savvy, show concern for individuals, and somehow touch a deeper cord.

I really doubt that we have any good idea of who the next strong opposition candidate is yet.

Re: Palin to resign
 

[quote=BringBackJoeT;567726]And one which Peggy Noonan undoubtedly believes Palin did not actually write.[/quote]

Peggy Noonan can't figure out whether she loves or hate Palin.