Re: The FINAL Kirk Cousins Saga thread. 5.0
 

[quote=diehardskin2982;1188022]I am going to my thoughts on the idea of us franchising Kirk and trading him here, I invite honest discussion and feedback.

How would this work> Redskins would Franchise Kirk, and attempt to trade him before the draft. We would invite his agent to negotiate a long-term deal, while we workout possible compensation with the other team. If this is true, the team has to have an agreement in play with a possible team.

Why would Kirk do this?

> To lock-in $34mm for one year

> Because Redskins could pay him that money and make him sit out of football for a year. Highly unlikely, but I think this management group is crazy enough to do it.

> Lost of opportunity- When the desired team of choice gets another QB.

Why would he not do it...

> Pissing match with Redskins brass.

> He can bank on them not keeping $34 mm on the books.

> The prospect of truly becoming a Free Agent

> His future team losing draft picks in the exchange for him.[/quote]

Tandler sums it up well so I'll just leave this here

[url=http://www.nbcsports.com/washington/redskins/redskins-cant-trade-kirk-cousins-now-and-heres-why]The Redskins can't trade Kirk Cousins now and here's why | NBC Sports Washington[/url]

Re: The FINAL Kirk Cousins Saga thread. 5.0
 

Hi, I'm new here.
Re: Cousins future.

I believe a tag and trade is being worked upon and is the preferred method for Bruce and Dan. Especially so for Bruce, if for nothing else than to attain the most symmetrical and even trade "equation" possible, as it relates to what they are giving up for Alex Smith.

Most of the counter arguments I've read fail to recognize the rules and regulations of the CBA or they tend to focus why what they believe Cousins would or would not do, or some amalgam of how cost prohibitive it would be (in theory) in carrying Cousins on a franchise tag (for example) simultaneous with Smith.

But those arguments fail to see that, of course, the tag and trade will be negotiated prior to the new league year and that said cap hit of the franchise tag will be removed as quickly as it appears on March 14th, the same exact day. And that ultimately Cousins will still be able to negotiate his long term contract with his preferred team, while his suitor team will avoid uncertainties from a free for all bidding process, with compliance to Bruce's remuneration request, which will ultimately be below market (at least as I see it).

One thing people keep glazing over, once Cousins signs the Tag, he's under team control. He can't do anything to stop a trade. The trade itself is only between Bruce and the suitor team, for whatever remuneration Bruce/Redskins deem sufficient.

There's no red card to pull or grievance for Cousins to file.
He signs it ... his contract is property.


Running concurrent to the Smith trade would be the remuneration for Cousins, who, of course, has a market. While everyone can see that multiple teams are lining up and players of said organizations are actively stumping for their orgs to attain Cousins, many detractors of the tag-trade claim the Redskins don't have a market for Cousins. Unfortunately, competent and established QBs in the NFL always have a market.


And of course when under the Tag (using the franchise tag as the example), it would require a suitor team to trade for the contractual rights. That is of course the only thing that is being traded. Cousins isn't agreeing to a contract extension deal with Bruce, Cousins would be agreeing to a contract with his already preferred team, his #1 choice if you will, the team that is trading for him.

That's essentially what Bruce is selling on the tag and trade. He would be selling that Cousins still gets to choose his team, which is what he wants. Bruce is just insinuating himself in the middle in order to get compensation. And of course, once Cousins signs the tag, which he will, his one-year tender contract is under team control. Bruce can do whatever the hell he wants to do, accept whatever compensation and sell to whomever.

Of course, that's the gambit there for Bruce. Rather than go through with a threat of selling Cousins to Siberia for a pack of smokes, he'll offer to send him to his team of choice, his ultimate want. Which also entails that the contract that Cousins wants from his #1 team is there, in advance, so his requirements are met.

All that remains is the remuneration between Bruce and the suitor, in this case Elway and Denver.


So, a market does exist. Notwithstanding the generally accepted tenet of the importance of the QB position in the NFL.

I'm quoting someone from memory, but paraphrasing, "if you don't have a QB for your organization in the NFL, the search for one is all consuming. It dominates your field of view. And careers are made or broken, jobs are lost or saved upon the right or wrong choice for a QB."

Something like that.
So, tenet #1 involving any trade scenario of a QB in the NFL starts from the fundamental position of ... thirsty teams are thirsty.


There are many reasons to this end, and to be clear I've read many if not all of the standard arguments against that notion (tag - trade) that have been presented here in this thread as well as other threads on other boards and platforms. To me many of those arguments miss the target and conflate different aspects into one, or outright superimpose the incorrect one onto another, missing the underlying reason or cause.

I'd love to craft an OP in a thread which details all the various tangents and extrapolations, the rules and regulations set forth by the CBA, as well as each action and right granted to all parties involved, including the various ploys that many people have already thrown out in arguments, but to do so in detail, in one place showcasing the larger picture. Perhaps I can do that in time to come when I'm able.

Re: The FINAL Kirk Cousins Saga thread. 5.0
 

The staging for this negotiation is, of course, going to be at the Combine between March 2nd and March 5th, where virtually all free agent deals and/or trades are brokered prior to the new league year (March 14th).

The Combine will be the summit because, of course, the availability of all front offices being there together, likewise Mike McCartney also being there to broker a long term contract for Cousins.

The LTC exists in of itself and it doesn't change which organization that Cousins prefers as his "#1," nor does it change the perimeters of the contract that they (Cousins/McCartney) would be looking for whether as an unrestricted FA or as an owned commodity under the Tag for a trade.

It might be presumptuous of me for saying this, but, everyone knows that the connection to Denver is real and the Shanny aspect to it, via Elway, is also clearly a motivating factor. Not to mention that Denver has a much more favorable selling position of its Front Office to Cousins, by way of their not too distant history of being in two SuperBowls, which neither of the other two major players (Browns & Jets) would be able to sell themselves.

The contract will be the same regardless if written for free agency, or written for a tag and trade. The only thing that would be different would the guaranteed dollars in year one. Obviously, because of the Tag being fully guaranteed. But in general either contract will between (ballpark) 26/27 million AAV, with 90 million guaranteed (give or take) over the life.

That's an important point, I tend to think.


Most of the retorts I've read after that point is made is something like: "why would Cousins even negotiate at all?"

Well, you're asking why Cousins would want to negotiate with an organization he already likes, wants to be with, in Denver? Sure he would. That's his "#1" (I'm presuming). Are you asking why Cousins would be interested in 90 million dollars guaranteed? Well, of course he would.

90 million dollars guaranteed over a 5 year deal is better than 34 million, or 28 million, guaranteed on a one year deal. Simple. Which ultimately satisfies the "security" aspect he has wanted and that which he has said is one of two main things he wants in any deal, while simultaneously giving him "his choice" of team (the other desire he has stated), which he spelled out during his fireside chat with the local radio guys ... (Grant & Danny, I think).


So, naturally, whenever referencing the negotiation here after, it's referring to Indianapolis, between March 2nd and 5th. And between the major parties, namely Bruce/Dan and Elway/Denver and Cousins/McCartney.


And of course, the deal, as I've run through it, will be presented under the attempt to have it agreed upon in principal there before the weekend is over, prior to the new league year, with compliance of the deal in principal signed by all parties to a non-disclosure and/or affidavit, and ultimately the timeline being, roughly, tagged prior to the March 6th deadline, the tag signed at an agreed-to date prior to the new league year, like March 9th (for example), and the trade initiating on the first day of the new league year of March 14th at 4pm.

So, clearly, the deal will start under the premise, being pitched as under the Franchise tag. That's how it will be presented to Elway/Broncos and Cousins/McCartney.

Why? Because, as you know, the Franchise tag for the 3rd installment of the FT makes it the exclusive version, as per the rules of the CBA and by using the FT, it therefore eliminates the Transition tag loophole of Cousins/McCartney using the offer sheet tactic.

That tactic being one of signing an offer sheet which if the Redskins tried to match, solely for the purpose of immediately flipping Cousins back in a trade to the team which wrote the offer sheet, would mean that they (Redskins) would have to match the signing bonus in full, which if trading Cousins on that contract, would then accelerate the signing bonus in full onto the 2018 year cap.

So, of course, the offer sheet tactic has to be eliminated. That's why it has to be pitched as the Franchise tag, at least initially.

The FT also ensures compliance from Cousins, who, of course will sign the tag "immediately," for lack of a better word. I know here will be a great spot for someone to jump in and argue that point above, I've already read those arguments. The answer to it is simply, that not signing the tag would be self defeating for Cousins and ultimately harm his earnings and his market if he willfully tried to keep himself in limbo off the market rather than agree to the resolution. I can get into all of those reasons later.


But, to wrap this introductory part up, I believe in the end, the Transition tag will ultimately be used, only as a sweetheart deal to sweeten the trade between Bruce and Elway, while giving Cousins exactly what he wants simultaneously.

The sweetheart aspect relates to the cost differential between the FT and TT, that of 34.47 versus 28.73. I believe before all is said and done, that once Bruce walks both Elway and Cousins/McCartney through the parameters, he'll then throw out the idea of doing it on the transition tag, thus lessening the year-one amount that Elway would have to pay.

And in kind-of a genius stroke for Bruce (I know ...) it will actually enlist Elway to become the agent to drive the notion home that McCartney should comply to the idea of signing the TT rather than exercise their right to solicit offer sheets.

I can definitely get into more detail on that if need be.

So, in the macro, Cousins tagged, and traded to Denver for a 3rd round pick in 2018 and Aqib Talib. Of course Elway and the Broncos will have already negotiated a long term contract extension upon the one year Tag tender and thus will have offered Cousins, (ballpark) a 5 year deal between 26/27 AAV with 90 million guaranteed (give or take).

Elway seeing that the asking price for Cousins of a 3rd round pick is a pittance to what he would calculate for an established and competent QB, already NFL proven. Likewise, the Talib thing would be addition by subtraction for Denver, but it would be important for Bruce for optics purposes.

The basic timetable as I see it being that it is negotiated (the LTC between Cousins and Denver, the remuneration also) between March 2nd and March 5th. The tag being applied March 5th, one day before the tag deadline. Then a predetermined date for Cousins to sign the Tag, March 9th, for example. Leading to the actual trade itself on March 14th.

Re: The FINAL Kirk Cousins Saga thread. 5.0
 

"Why would Cousins sign the tag, why wouldn't he just not sign it?"

Because that would ultimately be self defeating. He would be removing himself from the market, on purpose, and be in self imposed limbo.

The teams that were all lining up to write him a contract in (supposedly) free agency, would then see that he's neither signed, nor under contract, and they would have to start to make plans in lieu of his situation.

That would negatively affect his ability to do the two main things he's been telling everyone, up to and including prior to the SuperBowl, that of wanting to choose his team as well as secure the LTC representative of a franchise QB.

So Cousins signs the tag. That should go without saying.


Another argument floating around. Cousins will just sign the tag and fold his arms and say that "he'll not negotiate with anyone."

This also doesn't make sense to me.

Firstly, he doesn't have a choice. Once he signs the Tag, he's under contract. Bruce can trade him to whoever he wants. Bruce can threaten to send him to Buffalo, or Miami, or wherever.

All that that is simply saying is that Cousins would be sent to team not of his choosing, to a team he wasn't fond of. That's the threat if he doesn't want to comply.

Yeah, perhaps that's an empty threat by Bruce (if he were indeed to make it). Maybe that's just me projecting an example onto the situation that doesn't carry water.

But it applies, if you ask me. The threat of sending Cousins to Buffalo for a 6th round pick ... of course Buffalo would pay a 6th for Cousins. Are you going to tell me that in this year's draft, by the time we get to the 6th round, that the available QBs are going to be anywhere nears to as good as Cousins? No way.

So, of course it's a bluff, intended to see if Cousins would call, but ultimately it's about Bruce offering a better option at the same instance. That of going to Cousins' first choice team, to send him to the place he already wants to be instead of a place he doesn't want to be.



Secondly, the more obvious reason, no sports agent on the planet is going to advice their client not to sign a 90 million dollar guaranteed contract in order to stay on a 34 (or 28) million dollar contract, one that would ultimately see him riding the bench and collecting dust.


Of course McCartney would advise Cousins to negotiate a LTC with Elway/Denver in order to receive the 5 year 90 guaranteed deal. And of course Elway would offer that so as to lock into Bruce's cost of a 3rd round pick.

Buttressed by the fact that a team like the Jets, who have a HC and Front Office personnel whose jobs are hanging in the balance, who is a team that is desperate for competent QB play, would be more than willing to give a throw away 3rd round pick for Cousins, but who more than likely would be the team to offer even more than that, more than Denver, in order to secure Cousins.

Because the Jets ultimately know what we all know, which is they cannot sell their organization to Cousins in the same way that Denver can, despite the Bates connection.

That, IF, this scenario were that Cousins was a free agent, that the Jets would lose out on him to a team like Denver.

So ... in a situation where it's no longer about Cousins being free in an open market (because the Redskins have tagged him), that it's a situation where teams need to offer a draft pick in order to secure his contractual rights, the Jets would look at that as their only chance to win out and get Cousins. Thus, they would be willing to out bid Denver, stands to reason.

And that only means that the Jets would be the team most likely to start the landslide of a bidding war for Cousins, despite him being on a one-year tender. Not only do the Jets have the cap space for 28 or 34, they know that a LTC would spread the guaranteed dollars out over 5 years. And they would simply have to convince Cousins that they were worthy.


Bruce doesn't have to ensure that Cousins would agree to a LTC with the Jets before the fact of a trade, he can accept whatever he wants and let them deal with the negotiations.

It's all about Bruce selling that he'll send Cousins to his top choice.


So when Bruce says to Elway, "hey, I bet I can get a 2nd from the Jets" ... or better yet, if/when the Jets get desperate and do offer a 2nd, Bruce can tell Elway that he'll still agree with him and take the 3rd and Talib, despite getting a high draft pick bid from the Jets.

One, that reinforces to Elway that his cost would be at a value. It also ensures that Elway becomes an additional pressure source upon McCartney for compliance. It would also reassure McCartney and Cousins to feel like Bruce would honor Cousins "#1" team, that he still has his freedom of choice, while simultaneously still getting the LTC with the guaranteed dollar threshold he wants, by willing to sign his signature to a non-disclosure form and an affidavit.

If Bruce commits to them and agrees to not double cross Cousins, to not accept any last minute bids, and if Cousins/McCartney agree to sign and not double cross the Redskins by exercising their right to solicit offer sheets (if the transition tag was placed), then all parties would ideally agree to it by March 4th, in Indy.

Just lay it all out on the table.

So, yeah.


The tag won't hit the Redskins on their cap. There won't be this long drawn out period where the Redskins are unable to sign free agents for weeks while Cousins is sitting over in the corner. Cousins will want to be where he is wanted, not with the Redskins. Cousins will also recognize that the contract is the same in the end, be it on the tag and trade or otherwise as obtained in free agency.

Same contract, same first choice team, Cousins' requirements are met.

Elway will want to secure Cousins on a cheaper cost (3rd rounder) than allow a lesser Front office like the Jets to outbid him.


This is why locking into a deal at the Combine and signing a non-disclosure ensures that his bid wins (Elway) and it eliminates any last minute, 11th hour bids, from teams like the Jets or the Browns, who have picks to burn.


A 3rd for Elway also ensures he can claim victory on the trade by not losing his 1st round, or 2nd round picks, which will both be sold as the core pieces to add to the bringing in of Cousins. The 3rd would be seen as requisite based upon what the Skins paid for Alex Smith.


Precedent seems like a big thing in the NFL. Especially recent precedent in terms of cost (like draft picks) on trades. The fact that Smith cost a 3rd means it's fundamentally sound for the Redskins to ask for a 3rd for Cousins. Especially so when many people compare the two QBs in terms of skill and style. I disagree somewhat, I lean toward Cousins as superior, kind-of heavily in fact, but that's a different thread.



Cousins would not be "hamstringing" his new team, as many have argued, at the cost of a 3rd rounder. Cousins has nothing to do with that compensation. He has no say in that whatsoever. The trade compensation is between the Redskins and Denver only.

*
Again, is someone going to argue that the QBs available in the [B]3rd round[/B] of the 2018 NFL Draft are going to be better than Cousins, Day 1?
Are we going to say that? Because that would be wholly incorrect, imo.


When you look at a 2018 3rd round pick in that kind of context, it puts into perspective of what Cousins is actually worth, versus what Bruce would be asking for compensation.

A 3rd is not a hefty price tag.
I might even ask folks, what round grade would you place on Cousins, as he is today, being an NFL vet, if he were placed into this years draft?

No mention of his contract size being much different, and larger, than a rookie contract, that is already understood and taken for granted, but just pure round grade on Cousins?

For me, personally, it far exceeds a 3rd rounder.
Cheap deal for Elway if you ask me. Elway's other alternative, don't give up the 3rd round and watch him go elsewhere, and Elway gets to continue to fart around with next Semian (sp), or Osweiler (sp), or whoever. *


In fact, when Bruce offers that the tag and trade could still be executed as drawn up, but only this time on the transition tag, for 28.73 instead of 34.47 on the franchise, Cousins will see that as his opportunity to give his new a "break," thus lessening what Elway would have to pay on year-one in guaranteed money.

Of course the LTC will average out to 26/27 AAV, or whatever it ends up being, but year one will have to be guaranteed at 28.73, but years 2 through 4 would probably have the base salary drop and the cap hit be like ... IDK, between 18 to 20 million. The signing bonus obviously spread out on the life of the deal.

All that means is that Elway once again can claim victory and say that in years 2 through 4, they can still be big players in FA because of how adeptly he structured Cousins new deal. And Cousins of course (by proxy of McCartney) will be ultimately enticed by the total guaranteed dollars on the deal. Which I've guesstimated at 90 million.

That's what is going to get Cousins to comply.

His only alternative would be to not sign the tag, which he won't, so it's moot.


And Bruce wants a balanced trade. Where the 3rd round pick from Denver offsets the 3rd he sent to KC for Smith. Bruce would want Talib to offset the addition of Fuller to KC in the Smith trade. Notwithstanding that Talib represents "Tampa True," so ... this whole thing, from the Elway and Shanny connection onto Cousins, to Tampa Talib and Bruce, just drips with symbolism.

Re: The FINAL Kirk Cousins Saga thread. 5.0
 

[quote=Macro;1188031](snip)[/quote]

Macro, please read the link MTK posted.

[URL="http://www.nbcsports.com/washington/redskins/redskins-cant-trade-kirk-cousins-now-and-heres-why"]Here[/URL]

Basically there's no way the Skins can force Cousins to do anything. He's looking forward to a bidding war between teams that actually want him. There's no reason for him to trust the Redskins front office at this point or roll the dice a third year with injury or some other unforeseen, or to agree to any deal that takes draft picks away from the team he is going to.

Re: The FINAL Kirk Cousins Saga thread. 5.0
 

[quote=HailGreen28;1188032]Macro, please read the link MTK posted.

Basically there's no way the Skins can force Cousins to do anything. He's looking forward to a bidding war between teams that actually want him. There's no reason for him to trust the Redskins front office at this point or roll the dice a third year with injury or some other unforeseen, or to agree to any deal that takes draft picks away from the team he is going to.[/quote]

Tandler assumes the same fallacy I've read everywhere else.

If tagged with the franchise tag Cousins has only one choice, an A or B choice. Either sign it and become under contract, or not sign it and therefore damage his own very market.

That bidding war you're talking about doesn't occur if he doesn't sign the tag and self imposes himself into limbo. All he would be doing is collecting dust while the teams who want him, have to start signing other players and use their money elsewhere instead of upon him.

So, Cousins will sign the tag.


From that point forward, his one-year tender contract is the property of the Redskins. They can trade him to whoever and for whatever. But of course Bruce and Dan will tell him that they will send him to his favorite team, no worse for the wear. That he'll end up in the same place for the same contract.

And that the only thing that matters for Bruce and Dan is whatever they can come to agree upon with Elway for compensation.


And, as I contend, we already know which is his favorite team. But, ultimately that doesn't matter, be it Denver or Cleveland, or whoever.

The fact is that the contract that Cousins wants (the one that ballparks between 25/26/27 AAV and up 90 (+/-) guaranteed dollars) will be written by his most enamored suitor regardless if it was in open market free agency, or upon a tag and trade.


The whole notion that Cousins could hold the Redskins free agent spending hostage really doesn't stand up to the light. First, once he signs, he doesn't have a choice on the matter. So his compliance of signing the tag and detailing which team is his first choice ensures he ends up where he wants to be.

Likewise, as it has been pointed out time and again, IF the Redskins just let Cousins leave in free agency, ostensibly going the passive route and playing for the 2019 3rd round compensatory pick, the Redskins would STILL have to show restraint and not sign "much of anyone," in free agency to begin with.


The notion that tagging Cousins somehow leads to Cousins stilling in the corner refusing to talk to teams that are offering him 90 million in guaranteed money, that teams across the league hungry, thirsty and desperate for legit, proven, NFL QBs are all going to collude together to lowball the Redskins and offer only 6th or 7th round picks for compensation to obtain the contractual rights just isn't going to happen.


The team that wants Cousins and the team that Cousins wants will be one and the same.

A signed affidavit or other legal document produced by Eric Schaffer ensures that Bruce will deal Cousins to his favorite team. The same team that Cousins say so in Indy during the Combine, during the trade summit. That would be the in-principal aspect of the trade to nullify your point of Cousins/McCartney's reticence to broker a deal.

Re: The FINAL Kirk Cousins Saga thread. 5.0
 

If the Skins pull it off I’ll say bravo [emoji122]

Re: The FINAL Kirk Cousins Saga thread. 5.0
 

Macro welcome to the site. I read through everything you wrote and find your case quite compelling.

But one thought for you to consider. If you know that Kirk’s desired team is Denver, couldn’t Elway know that? Follow me here. If Cousins signs the tag immediately so that he can then get permission from the Redskins to seek a trade partner, what would stop Mike McCartney and Elway from discussing terms, and agreeing to patiently wait the Redskins out?

If Elway were to get assurances from McCartney that Cousins would wait to sign with Denver, what would stop Cousins from sitting on the tag until April when FA was ostensibly over? If he knows what his preferred destination is, and if his preferred destination gets some assurances, I think that puts Denver/Cousins in position to call Allen’s bluff. All the while free agent opportunities pass the Redskins by.

Wondering your thoughts on that. Still, your position has caused me to reconsider my previously dismissive stance on the possibility. But I ultimately don’t like our chances for this simple reason: I don’t think Bruce Allen is half as smart as you. Welcome to the board.

Re: The FINAL Kirk Cousins Saga thread. 5.0
 

If the Skins are dumb enough to try it, KC will say thank you for the free money and sit on the sideline for a year and hit FA next year. Nothing he has done or said should make you think otherwise. He wants to hit Free Agency on his own terms. Meanwhile the Skins would be stuck with either trading Cousins at bargain basement prices, or keeping him on at the expense of a self imposed salary cap hell.

The only way it happens is if KC acts in good faith to give the Skins draft picks from the team he supposedly wants to lead to the superbowl.

It's really crazy how fandom clouds realism. Hopefully this Skins FO is more savvy then the Vinnie Cerrato FO.

Re: The FINAL Kirk Cousins Saga thread. 5.0
 

I don’t remotely agree that Cousins would be willing to sit for a year behind Alex Smith.

Re: The FINAL Kirk Cousins Saga thread. 5.0
 

[quote=Schneed10;1188038]I don’t remotely agree that Cousins would be willing to sit for a year behind Alex Smith.[/quote]

He wants FA on his own terms, and if the Skins try to FT him, he has said repeatedly he will sign it. From there it becomes a pissing match between Snyder and KC. KC would compete at training camp, but ultimately would Gruden have the guts to play KC over AS?

An aside note, if we did try this stunt, would AS and KC keep to the trade. A big part of AS' reason for not wanting to go to Cleveland was that he wants to be the guy. IF we franchise KC do you think AS goes to Reid and asks if the Denver trade was still a possibility.

Re: The FINAL Kirk Cousins Saga thread. 5.0
 

I don’t think the tag would be applied without first coming to an understanding between Cousins and his destination of choice.

If no understanding can be reached then I don’t think the tag will be applied.

Macro is saying that the three parties could sit down prior to the tag deadline and hammer out terms. If Bruce can’t pull it off then I agree it would be silly to then still go about applying the tag.

Re: The FINAL Kirk Cousins Saga thread. 5.0
 

I still think it requires KC to be a "good" actor. And I can't imagine, based on his past comments about how he feels about the FT, that he would sign it, then not stay on this team and play out the tag. And then he would be a FA the next season.

But like Matty said, if the Skins pull it off, then bravo to them

Re: The FINAL Kirk Cousins Saga thread. 5.0
 

The question is whether he’d rather collect $34M and compete w Alex Smith for the job, or be a good actor. That’s a choice he might be forced to make, and based on his stated desire to play for a winner, I think there’s a more likely chance he’ll come to the table.

Re: The FINAL Kirk Cousins Saga thread. 5.0
 

Every single sound bite for the last 3 years, when asked about the tag, KC has had the same response. If they tag me, I will sign it and play under it. At no time has he ever sounded inclined to take a team focused trade. Last year there were all the signs it was going to happen, but between KC and Snyder, it never came about. I don't think they are going to change their stripes and suddenly play nice.

Re: The FINAL Kirk Cousins Saga thread. 5.0
 

[quote=Schneed10;1188036]Macro welcome to the site. I read through everything you wrote and find your case quite compelling.
...
If Cousins signs the tag immediately so that he can then get permission from the Redskins to seek a trade partner, what would stop Mike McCartney and Elway from discussing terms, and agreeing to patiently wait the Redskins out?[/quote]

Wait them out for what though? If Cousins doesn't sign the tag he's only hurting his own market. If he signs it and Elway refuses to offer any draft pick compensation in a trade, all that does is ensure that Elway doesn't get his guy and that Cousins ends up in Buffalo (or wherever he doesn't want to be) having to deal with a different front office going through the same old song and dance of the one year tags and awkward LTC negotiations.

Compliance from all parties ensures everyone gets something that they want.


That's the whole thing about the Combine preceding the tag deadline. The premise is that trade negotiations, laying out each step, identifying each move and counter move, all occurs in Indy, before any tag is placed.


We already know that teams and agents are going to be discussing contracts during the Combine week. There's no need for the Skins to place the tag prior to getting an in-principal agreement there in Indy. The tag isn't needed for Bruce to talk to McCartney, or McCartney to Elway.

It's about getting the in-principal deal done, then executing it in actual sense, starting with the tag prior to March 6th. Which is why the Combine taking place between March 2nd and 5th is the perfect testing grounds.

As you know, if the franchise tag is used, Cousins has only two choices, either sign it or not. So ... for all the reasons in the world he'll sign it.

And once that happens his contract is owned property.


The end game for Bruce in Indy, as I see it, is that once all those various things are established, one after another, that of Cousins having a market, identifying whichever team is his preferred choice, that the valuation of Cousins in trade (3rd rounder) is reasonable and cross correlated with recent trade precedent (Alex Smith) in the QB market no less, that the Redskins will indeed force the issue with a tag and a team would need to trade ... "something" in order to secure his rights, that teams like the Jets are desperate for a QB and that they are a wildcard being that they are positioned behind both Denver and Cleveland not only in the draft but also by way of outward Front Office appearance, that they'd be a team willing to meet the threshold asking price with ease if not escalate the bids, I assume that at that point Bruce dealing with both McCartney and whichever team they see as the best fit, their #1, Bruce and Scheffer would produce a legal document where Bruce would attest to send Cousins to his team of choice.

And additionally they (Bruce) would want McCartney to sign that document as well to ensure compliance. That the LTC McCartney/Cousins wants from their #1 team is their own bag, 'get what you want' is what Bruce would say. It's not up to Bruce to worry about the LTC. He just needs to sell that Cousins still gets his choice and that Cousins needs to tell Bruce who his favorite team is, because otherwise Bruce is bound to sell him to Buffalo for a bag of peanuts.

Yes, the Redskins would have to bluff going to crazytown.

But from there a timetable would be established where things happen in sequential order. The tag occurs. Then Cousins signs it at a pre determined date, like March 9th. Which leaves plenty of scramble time in case that McCartney decides to do something duplicitous, like you suggested.

The idea of the affidavit occurred to me when toiling with the Franchise tag versus the Transition tag.

Something along the lines of (assuming all parties had agreed to the idea of a trade for Cousins' rights on the transition tag and Cousins had also agreed in principal to the contract being written by his #1 team), that IF McCartney/Cousins did not show up at the predetermined date of March 9th, that the transition tag would be dissolved and it would revert to the Franchise tag, thus taking away McCartney and Cousins' ability to just head out on March 14th under the transition tag and sign an offer sheet, which would screw with the Redskins cap if all they wanted to do was match and flip him right back.

Offering the transition tag part is simply a ploy by Bruce after it's established that the franchise tag dictates that Cousins can choose only to sign it or not.

If a team is interested in Cousins, all Bruce has to say is: "would you rather trade for him at 28 million or 34 million?" And of course every team showing interest in Cousins is going to say 28. Therefore, it actually becomes the other teams, ideally Cousins' #1 team, who are the ones to compel him to sign the TT and relinquish his CBA rights to freely solicit offer sheets.

The teams trying to obtain Cousins become the agents of pressure instead of Bruce.

It ends up being the suitor team which sells Cousins on compliance, not Bruce. Which is actually kind-of smart, because people keep conflating that this is somehow Cousins doing Bruce a favor, when in fact it's Cousins doing his new team a favor, giving them a lower entry price, as well as ensuring he gets to where he wants to be by being clear and upfront, instead of ending up somewhere just like the Redskins org but colder.

Re: The FINAL Kirk Cousins Saga thread. 5.0
 

[quote=Schneed10;1188042]The question is whether he’d rather collect $34M [/quote]

Well, I only compare the two dollar amounts per each of those theoretical deals: 34 million guaranteed for one year versus 90 million guaranteed.

I know which one I'm choosing.


I don't know why Cousins wouldn't want to negotiate with a team he wants to be with (assuming its Denver or whoever) for a guaranteed dollar amount that he also wants.

You mean he declines to go where he wants for what he wants just to go cray-cray with Bruce and Dan?

IDK.


I likewise don't know why he'd want to sabotage his own career by staying with the Redskins just so that he doesn't play for a year. That can only negatively affect his earnings in future years and jeopardize whether any team would actually give him a long term deal if/when he ever made it to the open market.


But ultimately none of that matters the second he signs the tag. Once he does that Bruce can sell him to ... I was going to Ottawa, I used Siberia previously. But I figured Bruce already explored the whole CFL angle, lol. (Joking).

So that's just it, at least for me, Bruce forces Cousins to the table with the tag, albeit begrudgingly: "tell me where you want to go, or I'll just throw a dart at a board."

Re: The FINAL Kirk Cousins Saga thread. 5.0
 

[quote=Schneed10;1188038]I don’t remotely agree that Cousins would be willing to sit for a year behind Alex Smith.[/quote]

For 34 million and a chance to stick it to the Skins and become a UFA in 2019?

I just don't see how the risk is worth the reward for us. If we want to recoup the pick or picks as we basically need to replace the pick plus Fuller, we can simply trade down in the 1st or 2nd round.

Re: The FINAL Kirk Cousins Saga thread. 5.0
 

[quote=Schneed10;1188036]
If Elway were to get assurances from McCartney that Cousins would wait to sign with Denver, what would stop Cousins from sitting on the tag until April when FA was ostensibly over? If he knows what his preferred destination is, and if his preferred destination gets some assurances, I think that puts Denver/Cousins in position to call Allen’s bluff. All the while free agent opportunities pass the Redskins by.[/quote]

Well, wait to April for what? To make the Redskins itch and finally cave and rescind the Tag? Or wait until April to come in and sign the Tag?

I believe that ultimately any ploy Cousins tries in not signing the tag actually negatively affects him and his market. I've argued that the only thing that act ensures is that the teams who want him, but see nothing but uncertainty, are going to get antsy themselves and start making decisions both in FA and the draft without knowing what his deal is, or when he might even be available.

He would only be hurting his earnings power as teams across the league, who would have otherwise offered him a contract, just allocate that money elsewhere.


So, not only would Cousins be holding hostage the Skins cap but he'd also be impacting his "new team's" cap by making them sit out FA in any real sense.
Those free agent opportunities also pass Elway and the Broncos bye as well, though. Assuming that's his team.

That's the thing for me, not only would the Redskins have to keep the cap space neccessaory for the tag and trade, but so too would Denver have to keep their cap space in order to sign Cousins were the Tag to be rescinded.


Folks have argued that Cousins would not agree to any tag and trade scenario because it would impact his new team by making them spend a draft pick, but Cousins not signing the tag makes his new team wait out FA too, makes them not spend money in FA to improve their team.

So, seems pretty defeating to me if one argues that any team trading for Cousins' contractual rights would be totally adverse to Cousins himself, while he'd willing enact a pact with Elway where they just wait out FA to see if the Skins break and rescind the Tag.

Re: The FINAL Kirk Cousins Saga thread. 5.0
 

[quote=Macro;1188047]Well, wait to April for what? To make the Redskins itch and finally cave and rescind the Tag? Or wait until April to come in and sign the Tag?

I believe that ultimately any ploy Cousins tries in not signing the tag actually negatively affects him and his market. I've argued that the only thing that act ensures is that the teams who want him, but see nothing but uncertainty, are going to get antsy themselves and start making decisions both in FA and the draft without knowing what his deal is, or when he might even be available.

He would only be hurting his earnings power as teams across the league, who would have otherwise offered him a contract, just allocate that money elsewhere.


So, not only would Cousins be holding hostage the Skins cap but he'd also be impacting his "new team's" cap by making them sit out FA in any real sense.
Those free agent opportunities also pass Elway and the Broncos bye as well, though. Assuming that's his team.

That's the thing for me, not only would the Redskins have to keep the cap space neccessaory for the tag and trade, but so too would Denver have to keep their cap space in order to sign Cousins were the Tag to be rescinded.


Folks have argued that Cousins would not agree to any tag and trade scenario because it would impact his new team by making them spend a draft pick, but Cousins not signing the tag makes his new team wait out FA too, makes them not spend money in FA to improve their team.

So, seems pretty defeating to me if one argues that any team trading for Cousins' contractual rights would be totally adverse to Cousins himself, while he'd willing enact a pact with Elway where they just wait out FA to see if the Skins break and rescind the Tag.[/quote]

The whole thing seems like way too much effort all for like a 3rd round pick. There are easier ways to get more picks, mainly trading down in draft, that lets Cousins go where he wants and saves all the scrutiny from the media and fans. Plus our track record practically guarantees this blows up in our faces.

Re: The FINAL Kirk Cousins Saga thread. 5.0
 

With Smith on the books any chance of a trade went out the window. You're trying to save face and you can't at this point. Move on and be done with it.

Re: The FINAL Kirk Cousins Saga thread. 5.0
 

Assuming all sides get on board what Macro is saying makes sense. Should be interesting to see what happens.

Re: The FINAL Kirk Cousins Saga thread. 5.0
 

[quote=CRedskinsRule;1188043]Every single sound bite for the last 3 years, when asked about the tag, KC has had the same response. If they tag me, I will sign it and play under it. At no time has he ever sounded inclined to take a team focused trade. Last year there were all the signs it was going to happen, but between KC and Snyder, it never came about. I don't think they are going to change their stripes and suddenly play nice.[/quote]

He said he would sign it and play under it when Colt McCoy was the only other QB on the roster. I would contend that if tagged, he would sign it, but not at all be interested in playing on it now that Alex Smith is here. He's going to want out - he's not going to be interested in possibly losing a QB camp battle to Alex Smith.

Re: The FINAL Kirk Cousins Saga thread. 5.0
 

It all sounds like a fan's overarching ability to rationalize something that they want. It's never been done in the NFL that I know of, and maybe the Skins FO is just that smart to make it happen as laid out, ultimately the Skins are the only ones who really risk anything in that type of move.

If Denver promises, but backs out - they blame the Skins FO (rightly or wrongly) the Skins are stuck with KC on a tag, yes they could try to trade him to somewhere else, but who is going to trade for KC with his history of non-negotiation.

If KC signs the tag right away, but then decides that he really just wants to collect aroun 80 million total from the Skins for 3 years and walk into the sunset after this year. The Skins are stuck with no FA space.

If the Skins back out before the FT tag is signed, no one else is hurt.

Going into negotiations where you are the only one with possible negative consequences is to risky a move to put the franchise under.

Then you throw in an owner, who (supposedly) didn't want to give Kyle Shanahan any trade options, and I don't know why anyone would think that he would be happy to send KC anywhere he wants after paying him 40+Mil.

Re: The FINAL Kirk Cousins Saga thread. 5.0
 

[quote=Macro;1188044]Wait them out for what though? If Cousins doesn't sign the tag he's only hurting his own market. If he signs it and Elway refuses to offer any draft pick compensation in a trade, all that does is ensure that Elway doesn't get his guy and that Cousins ends up in Buffalo (or wherever he doesn't want to be) having to deal with a different front office going through the same old song and dance of the one year tags and awkward LTC negotiations.

Compliance from all parties ensures everyone gets something that they want.


That's the whole thing about the Combine preceding the tag deadline. The premise is that trade negotiations, laying out each step, identifying each move and counter move, all occurs in Indy, before any tag is placed.


We already know that teams and agents are going to be discussing contracts during the Combine week. There's no need for the Skins to place the tag prior to getting an in-principal agreement there in Indy. The tag isn't needed for Bruce to talk to McCartney, or McCartney to Elway.

It's about getting the in-principal deal done, then executing it in actual sense, starting with the tag prior to March 6th. Which is why the Combine taking place between March 2nd and 5th is the perfect testing grounds.

As you know, if the franchise tag is used, Cousins has only two choices, either sign it or not. So ... for all the reasons in the world he'll sign it.

And once that happens his contract is owned property.


The end game for Bruce in Indy, as I see it, is that once all those various things are established, one after another, that of Cousins having a market, identifying whichever team is his preferred choice, that the valuation of Cousins in trade (3rd rounder) is reasonable and cross correlated with recent trade precedent (Alex Smith) in the QB market no less, that the Redskins will indeed force the issue with a tag and a team would need to trade ... "something" in order to secure his rights, that teams like the Jets are desperate for a QB and that they are a wildcard being that they are positioned behind both Denver and Cleveland not only in the draft but also by way of outward Front Office appearance, that they'd be a team willing to meet the threshold asking price with ease if not escalate the bids, I assume that at that point Bruce dealing with both McCartney and whichever team they see as the best fit, their #1, Bruce and Scheffer would produce a legal document where Bruce would attest to send Cousins to his team of choice.

And additionally they (Bruce) would want McCartney to sign that document as well to ensure compliance. That the LTC McCartney/Cousins wants from their #1 team is their own bag, 'get what you want' is what Bruce would say. It's not up to Bruce to worry about the LTC. He just needs to sell that Cousins still gets his choice and that Cousins needs to tell Bruce who his favorite team is, because otherwise Bruce is bound to sell him to Buffalo for a bag of peanuts.

Yes, the Redskins would have to bluff going to crazytown.

But from there a timetable would be established where things happen in sequential order. The tag occurs. Then Cousins signs it at a pre determined date, like March 9th. Which leaves plenty of scramble time in case that McCartney decides to do something duplicitous, like you suggested.

The idea of the affidavit occurred to me when toiling with the Franchise tag versus the Transition tag.

Something along the lines of (assuming all parties had agreed to the idea of a trade for Cousins' rights on the transition tag and Cousins had also agreed in principal to the contract being written by his #1 team), that IF McCartney/Cousins did not show up at the predetermined date of March 9th, that the transition tag would be dissolved and it would revert to the Franchise tag, thus taking away McCartney and Cousins' ability to just head out on March 14th under the transition tag and sign an offer sheet, which would screw with the Redskins cap if all they wanted to do was match and flip him right back.

Offering the transition tag part is simply a ploy by Bruce after it's established that the franchise tag dictates that Cousins can choose only to sign it or not.

If a team is interested in Cousins, all Bruce has to say is: "would you rather trade for him at 28 million or 34 million?" And of course every team showing interest in Cousins is going to say 28. Therefore, it actually becomes the other teams, ideally Cousins' #1 team, who are the ones to compel him to sign the TT and relinquish his CBA rights to freely solicit offer sheets.

The teams trying to obtain Cousins become the agents of pressure instead of Bruce.

It ends up being the suitor team which sells Cousins on compliance, not Bruce. Which is actually kind-of smart, because people keep conflating that this is somehow Cousins doing Bruce a favor, when in fact it's Cousins doing his new team a favor, giving them a lower entry price, as well as ensuring he gets to where he wants to be by being clear and upfront, instead of ending up somewhere just like the Redskins org but colder.[/quote]

I'm impressed at your ability to think multiple moves ahead.

But I'm still struggling with why Elway would find it [B]necessary[/B] to give up a 3rd rounder and Talib (or whatever the price is). I'm not convinced that Elway would feel the pressure to make that deal with the Skins. His reason for doing so would be to preclude other teams from coming to the Skins and making a trade offer, and from making a lucrative contract offer to Cousins.

But if Elway can establish via discussions with McCartney and Cousins that he has assurances that Cousins wants to be a Bronco, couldn't he tell Allen that the Broncos will play no part in a trade offer?

That then puts Allen in the position of deciding whether he's going to crazytown or whether he'll never apply the tag at all.

My concern is that at the combine, if you give Cousins the opportunity to meet with the Broncos and work out a contract, couldn't they have conversations that say listen I want to be a Bronco, give me that good deal and you won't need to trade picks to the Skins.

The key is preventing Cousins from having a discussion on contract like that with Elway without first getting an assurance from Elway that he would trade picks. As you say, I suppose if the Redskins can sequence the order of events properly, they can maintain the upper hand in discussions. They'd want those assurances from Elway, and then and only then would they allow Cousins permission to speak with them about a contract.

But man, it's a huge sequence of dominoes that have to fall just right. The Redskins have to think through it, set all the dominoes up, and make sure nobody's finger accidentally knocks one over too soon.

I hope you're right.

Re: The FINAL Kirk Cousins Saga thread. 5.0
 

[quote=Macro;1188047]Well, wait to April for what? To make the Redskins itch and finally cave and rescind the Tag? Or wait until April to come in and sign the Tag?

I believe that ultimately any ploy Cousins tries in not signing the tag actually negatively affects him and his market. I've argued that the only thing that act ensures is that the teams who want him, but see nothing but uncertainty, are going to get antsy themselves and start making decisions both in FA and the draft without knowing what his deal is, or when he might even be available.

He would only be hurting his earnings power as teams across the league, who would have otherwise offered him a contract, just allocate that money elsewhere.


So, not only would Cousins be holding hostage the Skins cap but he'd also be impacting his "new team's" cap by making them sit out FA in any real sense.
Those free agent opportunities also pass Elway and the Broncos bye as well, though. Assuming that's his team.

That's the thing for me, not only would the Redskins have to keep the cap space neccessaory for the tag and trade, but so too would Denver have to keep their cap space in order to sign Cousins were the Tag to be rescinded.


Folks have argued that Cousins would not agree to any tag and trade scenario because it would impact his new team by making them spend a draft pick, [B]but Cousins not signing the tag makes his new team wait out FA too, makes them not spend money in FA to improve their team. [/B]

So, seems pretty defeating to me if one argues that any team trading for Cousins' contractual rights would be totally adverse to Cousins himself, while he'd willing enact a pact with Elway where they just wait out FA to see if the Skins break and rescind the Tag.[/quote]

This is an excellent point.

Re: The FINAL Kirk Cousins Saga thread. 5.0
 

[quote=Schneed10;1188060]This is an excellent point.[/quote]


Which as I have said before a team like Denver doesn't want to wait and see with KC, they WANT him now

Re: The FINAL Kirk Cousins Saga thread. 5.0
 

[quote=skinsfaninok;1188061]Which as I have said before a team like Denver doesn't want to wait and see with KC, they WANT him now[/quote]

That is the key assumption in all of this. It is very much within the realm of possibility that Denver, or other teams, could decide that they like Cousins but don't love him, so to speak.

Meaning that if Washington wants to force a 3rd rounder and a player as compensation, the Broncos could very well say nah you know what, we're good. We'll pursue another player as a bridge and draft somebody to groom.

In this thought exercise we're assuming there's a major market for Cousins. We'll find out just how major.

I'd argue myself that he's not worth $27M per season, let alone worth $27M plus a trade package. We'll see.

Re: The FINAL Kirk Cousins Saga thread. 5.0
 

[quote=Schneed10;1188060]This is an excellent point.[/quote]

not really, because signing KC basically eats up Denver's cap space anyways. So they won't be players. The Broncos according to Overthecap have about 27M in cap space. If they are intent on signing KC, they aren't 1st week players in FA anyways.

Re: The FINAL Kirk Cousins Saga thread. 5.0
 

I guess it’s hard to see a 3rd rounder being a big deal in getting the guy you want, and dumping Talib only helps their cap.

Re: The FINAL Kirk Cousins Saga thread. 5.0
 

[quote=Schneed10;1188063]That is the key assumption in all of this. It is very much within the realm of possibility that Denver, or other teams, could decide that they like Cousins but don't love him, so to speak.

Meaning that if Washington wants to force a 3rd rounder and a player as compensation, the Broncos could very well say nah you know what, we're good. We'll pursue another player as a bridge and draft somebody to groom.

In this thought exercise we're assuming there's a major market for Cousins. We'll find out just how major.

[B]I'd argue myself that he's not worth $27M per season, let alone worth $27M plus a trade package. We'll see.[/quote]
[/B]


I have said that too, 23M? Maybe but I still think the offer last yr which was reported to be 20+ a year was a great offer. In the end I dont see a trade happening but I don't blame the team for trying to get a good pick for kirk

Re: The FINAL Kirk Cousins Saga thread. 5.0
 

[quote=CRedskinsRule;1188064]not really, because signing KC basically eats up Denver's cap space anyways. So they won't be players. The Broncos according to Overthecap have about 27M in cap space. If they are intent on signing KC, they aren't 1st week players in FA anyways.[/quote]

They have been rumored to be cutting big $ guys like Talib coming up and probably others like Thomas if they need too.

Re: The FINAL Kirk Cousins Saga thread. 5.0
 

[quote=Schneed10;1188063]That is the key assumption in all of this. It is very much within the realm of possibility that Denver, or other teams, could decide that they like Cousins but don't love him, so to speak.

Meaning that if Washington wants to force a 3rd rounder and a player as compensation, the Broncos could very well say nah you know what, we're good. We'll pursue another player as a bridge and draft somebody to groom.

In this thought exercise we're assuming there's a major market for Cousins. We'll find out just how major.

[B]I'd argue myself that he's not worth $27M per season, let alone worth $27M plus a trade package. We'll see.[/B][/quote]

Exactly, it's hard to see Denver specifically trading for KC with the possibility of Foles, the 3 Vikings qbs, and the draft. I think it's MUCH more likely that Denver trades for Nick Foles (for example) and gives up their 2nd round pick. Philly gains cap space. Denver can sign Foles to an Alex Smith type deal, taking this years cap hit at around 10M, and still cut Talib, leaving them with a +25M cap space.

The only team with enough cap space to make the sign and trade remotely plausible is the Jets. (Cleveland too, but KC is not signing up for Cleveland)

Re: The FINAL Kirk Cousins Saga thread. 5.0
 

The Eagles current payroll for both QB's is less than 15M a season lol that is unreal

Re: The FINAL Kirk Cousins Saga thread. 5.0
 

[quote=skinsfaninok;1188071]The Eagles current payroll for both QB's is less than 15M a season lol that is unreal[/quote]

And they are 10M over the cap. That is either great management or going to blow up in their face. Since I hate them, I have to assume it will not blow up in their face :(

Re: The FINAL Kirk Cousins Saga thread. 5.0
 

[quote=CRedskinsRule;1188072]And they are 10M over the cap. That is either great management or going to blow up in their face. Since I hate them, I have to assume it will not blow up in their face :([/quote]

I heard that they have almost every impact player coming back besides Graham who will prob demand a high pay day after this season.

Re: The FINAL Kirk Cousins Saga thread. 5.0
 

How could the Redskins sign free agents and resign their own free agents w/ both Cousins and Smith on the roster? No way that is happening. If the Redskins keep Cousins and Smith then they're just being assholes. Then it becomes very personal. No way they do that. Not even the Redskins would go that far...

Re: The FINAL Kirk Cousins Saga thread. 5.0
 

[quote=MTK;1188052]Assuming all sides get on board what Macro is saying makes sense. Should be interesting to see what happens.[/quote]

Even assuming our front office could pull this off with other teams, you don't think that the NFLPA, Goodell, and Mara & Co. would veto our gaming the system this way? (and maybe penalize us again?)

The FINAL Kirk Cousins Saga thread. 5.0
 

[QUOTE=HailGreen28;1188077]Even assuming our front office could pull this off with other teams, you don't think that the NFLPA, Goodell, and Mara & Co. would veto our gaming the system this way? (and maybe penalize us again?)[/QUOTE]



How is it gaming the system especially now there’s a legal tampering period? I don’t know what they could do really

Re: The FINAL Kirk Cousins Saga thread. 5.0
 

[quote=MTK;1188078]How is it gaming the system especially now there’s a legal tampering period? I don’t know what they could do really[/quote]

Couldn't the NFLPA protest, and Goodell and Co. act, on the basis that they were limiting a player's (Cousins) potential earnings, as well as going way beyond tampering to collusion with other teams?