Re: Election predictions thread
 

[IMG]http://img.skitch.com/20081026-x2im57n1u5csefs549hyman3qg.jpg[/IMG]

Re: Election predictions thread
 

[quote=hooskins;495650]hahaaaa I love the last two predictions. Almost as hilarious as bill o'reilly's electoral map[/quote]

Obama's arrogance of proclaiming himself the next President, already planning his transition, even doing a Hollywood-produced commercial with him in a room very similar to the Oval Office is also going to contribute to his loss.

He has his followers convinced he can't lose because he doesn't believe he can.

There will be riots. :D

Re: Election predictions thread
 

[quote=Buster;495657]Obama's arrogance of proclaiming himself the next President, already planning his transition, even doing a Hollywood-produced commercial with him in a room very similar to the Oval Office is also going to contribute to his loss.

He has his followers convinced he can't lose because he doesn't believe he can.

[B]There will be riots.[/B] :D[/quote]

I'm glad your happy about that.

Re: Election predictions thread
 

[quote=Buster;495648]McCain will win by at least 5-6% and by over 100 EC votes.

The fact that Obama is not up by at LEAST 10 points in the polls is bad, bad news to his campaign since polls are always weighted in Democrats' favors. Remember how Kerry was up last time and lost? Gore? Even McGovern had a lead over Reagan a month out. :rofl:

The lead has been rapidly shrinking for Obama this week as the pollsters adjust to try to salvage credibility.

[URL="http://hughhewitt.townhall.com/blog/g/ff2dbb51-f269-4ff2-a82d-e4f6120ef228"]Choosing Prosperity and Strength: The Polls Move Towards McCain[/URL]
[URL="http://hughhewitt.townhall.com/blog/g/ff2dbb51-f269-4ff2-a82d-e4f6120ef228"]Townhall.com::Blog[/URL]

[B]In my state, PA, a few days ago, Obama was up by 10-12 points.[/B]
now:



Also, early voting SHOCKINGLY has been in favor of McCain and independent "undecided" voters are almost all doing to McCain.[/quote]
i just checked the latest gallup poll, and obama is up 11 points. thats was around lunch time. its all in what poll you look at

Re: Election predictions thread
 

[url=http://www.reuters.com/article/vcCandidateFeed7/idUSN2950447220081030]POLL-Obama takes 7-point lead on McCain | Reuters[/url]

Re: Election predictions thread
 

[quote=dmek25;495679]i just checked the latest gallup poll, and obama is up 11 points. thats was around lunch time. its all in what poll you look at[/quote]
Their traditional pole most use is around 3% which is through the 28th. Maybe you have a more updated pole.
[url=http://www.gallup.com/poll/election2008.aspx]2008 US (United States) Presidential Election and Candidate Coverage -- Gallup.com[/url]

Re: Election predictions thread
 

[quote=firstdown;495693]Their traditional pole most use is around 3% which is through the 28th. Maybe you have a more updated pole.
[URL="http://www.gallup.com/poll/election2008.aspx"]2008 US (United States) Presidential Election and Candidate Coverage -- Gallup.com[/URL][/quote]

It says 5 - 7% right now

Re: Election predictions thread
 

sorry, i was talking about Penn. Buster and my home town

Re: Election predictions thread
 

If McCain wins it's because democrats just didn't get out to the polls. But in all reality, I expect Obama to win, though it won't be with my vote.

Re: Election predictions thread
 

Prediction: pain. Obama kicks a late field goal to win 20-17. McCain does his best Wade Phillips impression by being old.

Seriously, Obama wins.

Re: Election predictions thread
 

Either Obama's going to win by a slim margin (less than 5%) or he's going to win by more than expected (I'd say by over 7-8%).

Everyone pretty much knows Black people are going to go out in droves, moreso than 2004. I'm hoping that will be enough to tip him over..

I mean my sig link won't make anymore sense if he loses... :(

Re: Election predictions thread
 

[quote=Mattyk72;495665]I'm glad your happy about that.[/quote]

I wouldn't mind it. Beating up a pretentious Republican might make me happy? Whoooo knows! It could be an effective therapy technique!

(Note: All Republicans are not pretentious)

Re: Election predictions thread
 

[quote=DynamiteRave;495740]Either Obama's going to win by a slim margin (less than 5%) or he's going to win by more than expected (I'd say by over 7-8%).

Everyone pretty much knows Black people are going to go out in droves, moreso than 2004. I'm hoping that will be enough to tip him over..

I mean my sig link won't make anymore sense if he loses... :([/quote]
I think if he wins the increase in turn out in the black vote will show to be the margin of victory. Who really knows its all just one big halfway educated guess.

Re: Election predictions thread
 

[quote=firstdown;495744]I think if he wins the increase in turn out in the black vote will show to be the margin of victory. [B]Who really knows its all just one big halfway educated guess.[/B][/quote]

Yep. That's politics for ya.

Personally, I just want Tuesday to come and go. So these boards can go back to, like 70Chip said, models and monkey's throwing crap. Those were the good old days.

Re: Election predictions thread
 

I thopught this was interesting ... the guy is in baseball stats so I thought it was fitting, hes got 344 to 193
[IMG]http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_5ieXw28ZUpg/SQks0JhKnYI/AAAAAAAAAgM/JkcyS93Myfk/S1600-R/1029_scenario.png[/IMG]
[url=http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/]FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right[/url]