Re: 26-27-60 QB formula
 

[quote=GMScud;794595]Randy Moss 12, Chris Johnson 10, Frank Gore 6? Has anyone taken a wonderlic? I'm far from a genius and I could still score in the 20's if I was blind drunk. It's amazing how stupid some of these guys are.[/quote]

Well in all fairness, these guys are football players not scholars.

Re: 26-27-60 QB formula
 

[quote=NC_Skins;794479][URL="http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news?slug=lc-carpenter_memory_improves_gabbert_stock_041911"]Great memory turns Gabbert into top prospect - NFL - Yahoo! Sports[/URL]


A piece on Gabbert's great memory and ability to pick up things fast.[/quote] Yeah, that piece made me covet him for the Skins. Doubt that will happen but a fan can dream can't he?

Re: 26-27-60 QB formula
 

[quote=NC_Skins;794491]Tyrod Taylor is a poor man's version of Pat White. He's definitely not as good as White was in college, and he's not a NFL type of QB. Maybe he can follow in the footsteps of Randal El and return punts for a .35/yard average.[/quote]

I think Tyrod is just about the exact same player as White. White had a better system with better players around him. Of course White has been a washout in the NFL so what does it matter? I still like Taylor a lot for some reason. He didn't get near the credit he deserved last season. He should have been in the discussion for Heisman.

Re: 26-27-60 QB formula
 

[quote=GMScud;794595]Randy Moss 12, Chris Johnson 10, Frank Gore 6? Has anyone taken a wonderlic? I'm far from a genius and I could still score in the 20's if I was blind drunk. It's amazing how stupid some of these guys are.[/quote]

I believed they changed it to take place in the morning, and I'm not sure when they did...but the Wonderlic used to be administered at the end of a long day of physical workouts and interviews. So imagine you've spent several hours doing physical tests (lifts, sprints, etc), running through position drills, speaking with coaches and front office execs, and then you're given less than 15 minutes to take this test

Re: 26-27-60 QB formula
 

[quote=SBXVII;794538]I agree with you, however I think some QB's picked up by teams are picked up because of their ability and not looked at if they would fit the scheme the team runs.

and on another note how many HC's who pick up a QB build the scheme around the QB? I think when you see a really bad team go out and pick up a QB and the next year they are in the playoff hunt I start thinking the HC did a good job of changing up his scheme to what the QB does best. Then there is the HC that simply say the QB needs to learn the plays. I think the latter is ok for a team who already has a starting QB and picks one up in the draft to ride the bench a few yrs to learn the play calls.[/quote]

Interesting you should mention that because McNabb and Kyle Shanahan illustrate some of the scenarios that presents. Trying to explain why McNabb didn't perform that well last season, you could say it was McNabb's ineptitude at learning a new playbook, the Shanahan's "inflexibility" in accommodating him, or other factors (questionable OL, no receivers, etc).

The real question: assuming you can attribute some of McNabb's struggles to having trouble learning the playbook, could that have been predicted based on his Wonderlic score? Or could Andy Reid have predicted McNabb's poor clock management abilities?

IMO, way too many factors to say definitively that there's a clear link between the two. But at the same time, it's definitely in the back of my mind during talent selection. I think GMs should pay attention to the 26-27-60 forumula.

Re: 26-27-60 QB formula
 

[quote=BuckSkin;794477]Of those 9 QB's you listed, Mallett has the 8th best completion %. I thought that was his calling card, his "amazing" arm. Doesn't matter if he can throw an 80 yard pass if it's in the dirt.[/quote] Mallett had a 64% completion % last year and threw for 32.

Re: 26-27-60 QB formula
 

[quote=NC_Skins;794521]Not hardly. Up until last year, Vick has been horrible as a QB.

[url=http://www.nfl.com/players/michaelvick/careerstats?id=VIC311467]Michael Vick: Career Stats at NFL.com[/url]

He had a grand total of one year where he threw for over 2,500 yards and had a QB rating over 78. (81)

I'm sorry, he's the DeAngelo Hall of the QB position. He's hyped up because fans see him avoiding tackles on ESPN and think that's the mark of a good QB.

Vick the running back on the other hand is very good. Too bad he plays the QB position.[/quote]

[quote=NC_Skins;794575]You mean the same teams that led the league in rushing and had an above average defense? No, you're right. It was Vick and those ESPN highlights that carried them to glory...lol

It's funny, that basically the same team that Vick played with did so much better with Matt Ryan (11-5 in fact). Wonder why that is?

Child please.[/quote]Um what?

Vick was a horrible QB?

Beating the Packers [I][B]at[/B][/I] Lambeau to go to NFC championship game ring a bell?

Horrible.
2x Pro Bowl.
Horrible.
Winner.
Horrible.

Revisionist history Island must be a great place.

I used to live in ATL and Mike Vick [I][B]was[/B][/I]the team.
Ryan is part of a good team.

Re: 26-27-60 QB formula
 

I also don't feel like 60% should be the baseline for completion percentage. 62% is an average college completion percentage. If you're below 57%, you pretty much don't have the skill to complete passes. But 60% and 58% are both below the average. Neither is at 62%. So there's no reason that Mallett, Stanzi, and Kaepernick should "fail" in completion percentage while Gabbert "passes." Gabbert us higher, but below the average.

If you bumped up the baseline to 62%, only really great prospects would get past. And also, the only guy who would have passed the rule this year is McElroy.

Re: 26-27-60 QB formula
 

[quote=BuckSkin;794477]Of those 9 QB's you listed, Mallett has the 8th best completion %. I thought that was his calling card, his "amazing" arm. Doesn't matter if he can throw an 80 yard pass if it's in the dirt.[/quote]re: Mallett's accuracy, its not great, and should be treated as such on draft day. However, the raw completion percentage number is somewhat deflated by Mallett not playing his senior season, which would (theoretically) be one of his higher comp% seasons.

He's already being punished for coming out early by the games started total, so I would treat that 58% completion as a bottom end projection for him in the NFL. As in: he'll be at 58% or better as a pro. Which is what you want from a player.

Re: 26-27-60 QB formula
 

Devlin, Tolzien, TJ Yates all pass as well, and are all great late round prospects in the form of Greg McElroy.

Re: 26-27-60 QB formula
 

[quote=GMScud;794595]Randy Moss 12, Chris Johnson 10, Frank Gore 6? Has anyone taken a wonderlic? I'm far from a genius and I could still score in the 20's if I was blind drunk. It's amazing how stupid some of these guys are.[/quote]

I've taken some of the sample ones and I think the lowest that I've ever gotten was a 42. Went to high school in the sticks and only have 15 college credits. These guys float through college somehow...

Re: 26-27-60 QB formula
 

[quote=GTripp0012;794619]re: Mallett's accuracy, its not great, and should be treated as such on draft day. However, the raw completion percentage number is somewhat deflated by Mallett not playing his senior season, which would (theoretically) be one of his higher comp% seasons.

He's already being punished for coming out early by the games started total, so I would treat that 58% completion as a bottom end projection for him in the NFL. As in: he'll be at 58% or better as a pro. Which is what you want from a player.[/quote]

Ryan Mallett consistently throw passes that hits his wr in stride. He's accurate in and outside of the pocket.

Re: 26-27-60 QB formula
 

[quote=Landry44;794629]Ryan Mallett consistently throw passes that hits his wr in stride. He's accurate in and outside of the pocket.[/quote]That's what I saw from him THIS year. I also saw, in the past, an erratic but potentially accurate passer.

You'd have to assume, for lack of better information, that he's going to develop in the pros similar to how he developed in college. Which means, inaccuracies at the beginning of his career.

Re: 26-27-60 QB formula
 

The accuracy or predictive value of forecasting is a myth.

It leads to this type of spurious logic:

[QUOTE]"Has there ever been a red-headed quarterback in the NFL who's really done well?" a coach asked one reporter last week. "It sounds idiotic, but is there any way that could be a factor? We've wondered."[/QUOTE]
From MMQB Peter King

Read more: [url=http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/article/magazine/MAG1184612/3/index.htm#ixzz1KALUViPM]Despite an explosion in information - 04.25.11 - SI Vault[/url]

[QUOTE]Rotoworld points out that red-headed quarterbacks historically haven't been successful in the NFL. They cite the likes of Jeff Garcia and Todd Marinovich. Carson Palmer is also a red head, but I'm not sure if he helps the concern or goes against it.[/QUOTE]

Its also a myth that comp%=accuracy.
Accuracy is about ball placement and ball placement can only be determined by watching a QB throw a tedious amount of throws.

Its also a myth that comp% is a variable that one can reasonably isolate and attribute to the QB alone without factoring in scheme, personnel i.e pass protection and receiver talent.

At the end of the day QB evaluation and football evaluation in general doesn't lend itself to evaluation through stats alone.

Re: 26-27-60 QB formula
 

Unbelievable that hair color would even be brought up.

Re: 26-27-60 QB formula
 

All of this over analyzing, off season testing, college completion % really doesn't mean anything. All that matters is what a guy does once he gets on a team and adjusts to the pro game. Out of all of these QB's, which one can come in and command an NFL playbook? Which one can get hit in the mouth and get up and throw a td pass? Which one is mentally tough or can maybe play through pain? We're really not going to know until they get drafted and start playing.

Re: 26-27-60 QB formula
 

just to back up your point:

[QUOTE]Despite a decent streak in the last three drafts, NFL general managers haven't improved much in picking the most important player on the field. From 1980 to '95 (16 drafts), teams selected 35 first-round passers. Nine, from John Elway to Kerry Collins, became consistent long-term starters or stars. Ten, from Art Schlichter to Heath Shuler, had very little impact. The others either were middle-of-the-road players or were derailed by injuries.

From 1996 to 2010 (15 drafts), G.M.'s chose 36 first-round quarterbacks. Excluding Sam Bradford and Tim Tebow, who just finished their rookie years, that leaves 34 QBs. Of those, 11 appear to be long-term starters or stars (if you include recent picks Jay Cutler, Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco), and eight appear to be busts or doomed by injury.

We'll call the bust rate 29% in the earlier group and 24% over the last 15 years, with 26% stars before to 32% now. It's a little better, but not the change you might expect from the information explosion of the last two decades, all the tools and analytics teams employ to determine if a prospect is the next Dan Marino or Dan McGwire. "Why is it still such an inexact science?" Harbaugh says. "Because there's still some variables you just can't measure."
[/QUOTE]
Read more: [url=http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/article/magazine/MAG1184612/1/index.htm#ixzz1KAmPtwvQ]Despite an explosion in information - 04.25.11 - SI Vault[/url]

Re: 26-27-60 QB formula
 

The way the media has scrutinized these quarterbacks in the lead up to the draft seems unusually high this year. It seems like there is no quarterbacks without major flaws, and that nobody is worth taking a flier on. How does Blaine Gabbert put up a mediocre season in missouri's gimmick offense, and is now in the equation for a top 5 pick, whereas guys like Jake Locker or Ryan Mallett have okay or good seasons with comparable (or much tougher) schedules and are valued way lower. I'm still sticking with either Mallett or Locker at this point as my pick.

Re: 26-27-60 QB formula
 

[quote=Mattyk;794685]Unbelievable that hair color would even be brought up.[/quote]

He'd fit in well here as a WP member in the offseason.



Follow-up:


[URL="http://kissingsuzykolber.uproxx.com/2011/04/the-search-for-the-greatest-ginger-quarterback-of-all-time.html"]The search for the greatest ginger quarterback of all time | Kissing Suzy Kolber[/URL]




Unbelievable, do a Google search for red-haired quarterbacks and check out the results for several pages. This is a huge issue apparently.

I say, draft Dalton.
[URL="http://www.google.com/search?q=red-haired+quarterbacks"]red-haired quarterbacks - Google Search[/URL]




Also,

[IMG]http://www.deliafamily.net/FBCI/ToppsMisc/68ToppsSU/68TSU%2010%20Sonny%20Jurgensen.jpg[/IMG][IMG]http://www.blogcdn.com/blog.redskins.com/media/2010/10/si-jurgensenlombardi.jpg[/IMG]

Re: 26-27-60 QB formula
 

[quote=cdskins26;794716]The way the media has scrutinized these quarterbacks in the lead up to the draft seems unusually high this year. It seems like there is no quarterbacks without major flaws, and that nobody is worth taking a flier on. How does Blaine Gabbert put up a mediocre season in missouri's gimmick offense, and is now in the equation for a top 5 pick, whereas guys like Jake Locker or Ryan Mallett have okay or good seasons with comparable (or much tougher) schedules and are valued way lower. I'm still sticking with either Mallett or Locker at this point as my pick.[/quote]

Technically it's a very deep QB class but the thing that at least scares off many fans is the lack of High Floor High Ceiling types. In fact it scares people off every year. People here in Atlanta yelled at Dimitroff for taking Ryan over Dorsey. "Are you kidding me? The guys inaccurate. He throws to many picks. He can't even win the ACC! Build the trenches then draft a QB." Now people are all Matty Ice this Matty Ice that.

Raven fans thought Newsome had lost it when they traded up into the first round to take Flacco. "A spread QB from an FCS school? We're doomed."

Bottom line, unless you're drafting Andrew Luck or have built in the trenches for years with nothing to show for it like St. Louis your fans will yell at you for taking a QB. Lol, thats why Ram fans got on board with Bradford. While we were talking about the shoulder and the risk of injury the Ram fans were like "if we draft another freaking lineman I'm going to shoot myself."

Re: 26-27-60 QB formula
 

[quote=skinsfan69;794688]All of this over analyzing, off season testing, college completion % really doesn't mean anything. All that matters is what a guy does once he gets on a team and adjusts to the pro game. Out of all of these QB's, which one can come in and command an NFL playbook? Which one can get hit in the mouth and get up and throw a td pass? Which one is mentally tough or can maybe play through pain? We're really not going to know until they get drafted and start playing.[/quote]

Thank you. I am tired of all of the speculation and opinion. Can not wait for the draft to be here and for the season to start. As usual we will all be proved wrong once the rookie QB's got on the NFL field. Who will be the next diamond in the rough Tom Brady? That is what people will notice, not the top QB's that were expected to be good.

Re: 26-27-60 QB formula
 

[quote=30gut;794679]The accuracy or predictive value of forecasting is a myth.

It leads to this type of spurious logic:


Its also a myth that comp%=accuracy.
Accuracy is about ball placement and ball placement can only be determined by watching a QB throw a tedious amount of throws.

Its also a myth that comp% is a variable that one can reasonably isolate and attribute to the QB alone without factoring in scheme, personnel i.e pass protection and receiver talent.

At the end of the day QB evaluation and football evaluation in general doesn't lend itself to evaluation through stats alone.[/quote]

Locker is the weirdest prospect I've seen in terms of accuracy.


[quote]Spent early career in option-heavy system and last two seasons in pro-style offense with lousy pass protection. Has become a product of environment, as a result[B]. Is more comfortable throwing under fire while on the run than from within the pocket.[/B] He has [B]excellent accuracy when throwing on the run and/or outside the pocket (approximately 70-percent in 2010)[/B]. Oregon State 2010 game is a good example (completed 71.4-percent of throws outside the pocket compared to 57-percent of throws inside the pocket)[B]. Looks least comfortable when he's in pocket going through progression read[/B]s. He has a long stride at times, which throws off his balance and prevents him from transferring weight from back-to-front. [B]He appears to be thinking too much about mechanics and does not look natural unless he's throwing from on the run.[/B]
[/quote]

Re: 26-27-60 QB formula
 

Locker needs some good coaching IMO. I think a lot of his issues are with mechanics, mainly footwork. Correctable stuff at the next level. If he had real accuracy problems, he wouldn't have gone 40/42 at his pro day. Even at a scripted workout, balls would be hitting the dirt or sailing over people's heads if he had a real problem with throwing the football.

I'd be more concerned with someone like Newton, who threw some god awful balls at his pro day.

Re: 26-27-60 QB formula
 

[quote=Mattyk;794772]Locker needs some good coaching IMO. I think a lot of his issues are with mechanics, mainly footwork. Correctable stuff at the next level. If he had real accuracy problems, he wouldn't have gone 40/42 at his pro day. Even at a scripted workout, balls would be hitting the dirt or sailing over people's heads if he had a real problem with throwing the football.

I'd be more concerned with someone like Newton, who threw some god awful balls at his pro day.[/quote]

At the very least Lockers accuracy problems aren't nearly as black and white as some want to believe.

Re: 26-27-60 QB formula
 

Also looks like I was wrong about Ponder being a third round pick.
[url=http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/04/21/schefter-dalton-ponder-both-likely-to-go-in-first-round/]Schefter: Dalton, Ponder both likely to go in first round | ProFootballTalk[/url]

No matter. Next Friday the Redskins will draft Locker at 10 and suddenly the title of Warpath Rain Man will be mine. ALL MINE!

Re: 26-27-60 QB formula
 

[quote=Dirtbag59;794778]Also looks like I was wrong about Ponder being a third round pick.
[url=http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/04/21/schefter-dalton-ponder-both-likely-to-go-in-first-round/]Schefter: Dalton, Ponder both likely to go in first round | ProFootballTalk[/url]

No matter. Next Friday the Redskins will draft Locker at 10 and suddenly the title of Warpath Rain Man will be mine. ALL MINE![/quote]

I respectfully offer that you have undervalued Ponder, our future Pro Bowl QB, all along.

Re: 26-27-60 QB formula
 

[quote=Lotus;794789]I respectfully offer that you have undervalued Ponder, our future Pro Bowl QB, all along.[/quote]

Well in my defense it was never me assigning him a third round grade. If I had to grade him I would say late first is where he deserves to go based on his talent.

The reason I kept on saying that he was a third round pick was based on what happened to Colt McCoy last year being pretty similar. The main difference between the two is that Colt was more accomplished but Ponder had experience in a pro style offense making the two a push. In fact I thought that Ponders injury concerns were much worse then that of Colts going into last year.

Still maybe I'm overreacting to this speculation as I've heard it before. Most notably with Chris Simms in the days leading up to the draft. So in the end maybe I'll be right in terms of where I've said he'll be drafted. However I wouldn't bat an eye if Ponder ended up as a late first round pick.

Re: 26-27-60 QB formula
 

[quote=Dirtbag59;794790]Well in my defense it was never me assigning him a third round grade. If I had to grade him I would say late first is where he deserves to go based on his talent.

The reason I kept on saying that he was a third round pick was based on what happened to Colt McCoy last year being pretty similar. The main difference between the two is that Colt was more accomplished but Ponder had experience in a pro style offense making the two a push. In fact I thought that Ponders injury concerns were much worse then that of Colts going into last year.

Still maybe I'm overreacting to this speculation as I've heard it before. Most notably with Chris Simms in the days leading up to the draft. So in the end maybe I'll be right in terms of where I've said he'll be drafted. However I wouldn't bat an eye if Ponder ended up as a late first round pick.[/quote]

I think you are right on with your Colt McCoy example. We keep hearing that tons of QB's will be taken in the first round this year but McCoy's example makes that seem unlikely. Yes, there are many teams that need QB's and have no recourse to free agency, making this year different. But most of the QB's this year are not immediate starters so I still don't see a first round stampede. This is not a 1983 crop. A run on QB's in the second round, maybe, but there are too many top-quality defensive players this year which will demand first round choices.

Re: 26-27-60 QB formula
 

[quote=Mattyk;794772]Locker needs some good coaching IMO. I think a lot of his issues are with mechanics, mainly footwork. Correctable stuff at the next level. If he had real accuracy problems, he wouldn't have gone 40/42 at his pro day. Even at a scripted workout, balls would be hitting the dirt or sailing over people's heads if he had a real problem with throwing the football.

I'd be more concerned with someone like Newton, who threw some god awful balls at his pro day.[/quote]

I agree with you about Newton. Theisman was on the radio here in DC saying that he is shocked Carolina is talking about taking Newton #1 when he doesnt think he's even 1st round material. JT thinks Newton only has 1 year as a starter in an O where the QB runs alot plus when he does throw he has accuracy problems and that doesnt bode well for success as an NFL QB. For once I agree with JT.

Re: 26-27-60 QB formula
 

[quote=Dirtbag59;794790]Well in my defense it was never me assigning him a third round grade. If I had to grade him I would say late first is where he deserves to go based on his talent.

The reason I kept on saying that he was a third round pick was based on what happened to Colt McCoy last year being pretty similar. The main difference between the two is that Colt was more accomplished but Ponder had experience in a pro style offense making the two a push. In fact I thought that Ponders injury concerns were much worse then that of Colts going into last year.

Still maybe I'm overreacting to this speculation as I've heard it before. Most notably with Chris Simms in the days leading up to the draft. So in the end maybe I'll be right in terms of where I've said he'll be drafted. However I wouldn't bat an eye if Ponder ended up as a late first round pick.[/quote]

[quote=Lotus;794791]I think you are right on with your Colt McCoy example. We keep hearing that tons of QB's will be taken in the first round this year but McCoy's example makes that seem unlikely. Yes, there are many teams that need QB's and have no recourse to free agency, making this year different. But most of the QB's this year are not immediate starters so I still don't see a first round stampede. This is not a 1983 crop. A run on QB's in the second round, maybe, but there are too many top-quality defensive players this year which will demand first round choices.[/quote]

Agree with the quick consensus. We're hearing that seven different passers could go in round one. That's nominally true. But I don't think more than one or two teams are going to be able to go up into the first round to get guys they like because of the limit of what they can give up.

Then the recent history shows that: while Colt McCoy and Jimmy Clausen had first round draft profiles, not only did teams not trade up into the first round to get them, no team traded up at all to get them.