Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

[QUOTE=Dirtbag59;886173]Next years class [Always]> This Years Class



Why don't you guys read my BLOG?!?!11[/QUOTE]

Because your a doctor and I'm a lawyer. I don't wanna fix people, I wanna get them outta jail.

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

This is for you NC_Skins:

[url=http://www.ps3youtube.com/v/john-cena-my-time-is-now-_JAa3NvP6f4]John Cena - My Time Is Now - boxyorkata - PS3 Youtube - Watch HD Youtube On PS3 - Gametrailers - Revision3[/url]

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

[quote=Son Of Man;886182][U]Looking at the most recent 20 SuperBowl Champion Quaterbacks:[/U]

- 12 of those games were won by a QB drafted in the 1st round within the first 11 picks. ([I]including Steve Young in the Supplemental draft after coming from the USFL[/I])

- 9 of those Super Bowls were won by a QB chosen 1st overall ([I]Incl. Young[/I])

- 15 were won by Quaterbacks who were drafted within the top 33 picks overall ([I]after you account for Favre, Brees and Rodgers[/I])

- 3 were won by Tom Brady ([I]yes we know...drafted 199th overall[/I])

- The other 2 were Kurt Warner and Brad Johnson.

- 3 were won by a QB who was acquired via free agency. ([I]Brees, Dilfer, Brad Johnson[/I])(excluding Warner who was in the Arena league prior to the Rams).


[B]Summary:[/B]

60% of the Super Bowls were won by a QB drafted high in the 1st Round.

3 out of 4 were won by QB's drafted in the top 33 picks.

10% were won by FA QB's with an historically great defense.

1 was one by a free agent QB without a great defense.

1 was one by a once in a generation Cinderella Story (Warner)

You have a great chance to win with a late round "developmental QB"....if his name is Tom Brady.

[B]My hope: [/B]

We draft our guy high in the 1st round.[/quote]Most of the quarterbacks in the league -- good or bad -- were first round picks. If you have a starting QB who wasn't picked in the first round, you're already in a pretty severe minority. Knowing where they were drafted isn't predictive of QB quality, unless your universe is ALL quarterbacks drafted. Because later round picks tend to be backups and let go out of the league where first rounders keep getting picked up to get additional chances (some successful).

So saying that there is a tendency for highly drafted quarterbacks to win the super bowl is sort of like pointing out that the highest paid coaching staffs tend to win the super bowl. It's very true, but when you compete at the highest level, you kind of expect the alpha types to make it to the top. And you don't consider it science when they do. That was the whole idea.

With that said, research shows that the late round picks who do last a long time in the league are just as good once they are veteran quarterbacks as are first round picks. But the reason that first round picks have much longer careers is that lesser prospects aren't around for their 6th, 7th, and 8th years, when QBs are in their prime.

I'll give you an example: Dan Orlovsky is probably one of the 30 best NFL quarterbacks. He was out of the league for two years. Curtis Painter was employed by a team during this time Orlovsky was out of the league. The biggest difference: Curtis Painter is a 3rd year player. Orlovsky was a 7th year player. Painter is probably going to be out of the NFL next year.

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

[quote=Son Of Man;886185]Long and corny way to say....get our QB of the future and [B]build around him [/B]while we develop him. Don't be afraid to multi-task.[/quote]

Well you wouldn't be able to surround the young QB with a lot of new talent this season (since you'd be giving up picks), but possibly the next season.

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

[quote=Ruhskins;886184]Would this team be able to win more games than this past season's team:

QB: RG3(starter), Clausen (backup)
RB: Helu, Hightower, Royster
FB: Young
TEs: Cooley, Davis, Paulsen
WR 1: (VJax, Bowe, or Colston) WR 2: Hank WR 3: Moss or Gaffney
OT: T. Williams, Free Agent RT
OG: Chester, Grubbs
C: Montgomery[/quote]yes

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

[QUOTE=Ruhskins;886184]Would this team be able to win more games than this past season's team:



QB: RG3(starter), Clausen (backup)

RB: Helu, Hightower, Royster

FB: Young

TEs: Cooley, Davis, Paulsen

WR 1: (VJax, Bowe, or Colston) WR 2: Hank WR 3: Moss or Gaffney

OT: T. Williams, Free Agent RT

OG: Chester, Grubbs

C: Montgomery[/QUOTE]

Hell yes, and I have been saying that for a while now.

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

[quote=NC_Skins;886180]Apparently you haven't been keeping up with Smoot's reports on how the Redskins feel about RGIII. They like him, but not enough to sell the farm.[/quote]

And there are sources that point to the Redskins going after Griffin. Granted I would bet on them signing Peyton at this point but it's certainly not outside the realm of possibility that they will trade up for RGIII.

[quote]According to Carol Ross Joynt of the Washingtonian, Redskins president of operations Dennis Greene was overheard telling people at a luncheon that a new quarterback has been chosen “and fans will be elated.” [B]He said the players name won’t be revealed until April’s NFL draft.[/B][/quote]

[url=http://washington.cbslocal.com/2012/02/08/haslett-insider-confirms-discussion/]Haslett “Insider” Confirms Chat « CBS DC[/url]

[quote]Denny posted numerous tidbits, including the Skins not being interested in free agent QB Matt Flynn, their strong interest in trading up to the second overall pick and more. Haslett has come out and denied the story, which Denny understands.

Denny, a pastor, went on to defend himself from critics who don’t believe his story, admitting he only thought he was only writing to “two or three hundred friends of mine.”[/quote]

[quote][B]They are strongly considering trading up with St. Louis Rams[/B]. He said, they have already talked with Jeff Fisher about the possibility. He did not elaborate on the details, other than to say they had talked with Fisher and are serious about getting a good QB. So again, I am eating crow, since I thought the Redskins would trade down for extra picks. They are not trading down, since they do not believe the QB's in the later rounds are talented enough to lead the team. Haslett believes the team is good enough to win, if they just had one of the two talented QB's at top.
[/quote]

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

[quote=EARTHQUAKE2689;886186]Because your a doctor and I'm a lawyer. I don't wanna fix people, I wanna get them outta jail.[/quote]

Exactly. By the way that jerk I operated on last week wants to sue me. Said surfing the web on my smart phone during emergency surgery counts as Malpractice.

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

[quote=Ruhskins;886190]Well you wouldn't be able to surround the young QB with a lot of new talent this season (since you'd be giving up picks), but possibly the next season.[/quote]

...and the season after that...and the season after that....and

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

[quote=GTripp0012;886189]Most of the quarterbacks in the league -- good or bad -- were first round picks. If you have a starting QB who wasn't picked in the first round, you're already in a pretty severe minority. Knowing where they were drafted isn't predictive of QB quality, unless your universe is ALL quarterbacks drafted. Because later round picks tend to be backups and let go out of the league where first rounders keep getting picked up to get additional chances (some successful).

So saying that there is a tendency for highly drafted quarterbacks to win the super bowl is sort of like pointing out that the highest paid coaching staffs tend to win the super bowl. It's very true, but when you compete at the highest level, you kind of expect the alpha types to make it to the top. And you don't consider it science when they do. That was the whole idea.

With that said, research shows that the late round picks who do last a long time in the league are just as good once they are veteran quarterbacks as are first round picks. But the reason that first round picks have much longer careers is that lesser prospects aren't around for their 6th, 7th, and 8th years, when QBs are in their prime.

I'll give you an example: Dan Orlovsky is probably one of the 30 best NFL quarterbacks. He was out of the league for two years. Curtis Painter was employed by a team during this time Orlovsky was out of the league. The biggest difference: Curtis Painter is a 3rd year player. Orlovsky was a 7th year player. Painter is probably going to be out of the NFL next year.[/quote]

Not disagreeing with you...just showing the data.

In my business we have a saying: "Men lie, women lie, numbers don't lie."

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

[quote=Son Of Man;886202]Not disagreeing with you...just showing the data.

[B]In my business we have a saying: "Men lie, women lie, numbers don't lie."[/B][/quote]

And I've heard: "There are lies, damned lies, and statistics"

Speaking of the first-round QB and SB wins. Aaron Rodgers doesn't count on that argument. Although he was picked up in the first round (late in the first), Rodgers sat for three years on the bench, and I am sure anyone who's making a case for RG3 is not saying that we should pick him up to sit him for three years.

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

[quote=Ruhskins;886204]And I've heard: "There are lies, damned lies, and statistics"[/quote]

Perfect segway :D


How numbers in statistical surveys can be used to deceive and how one can be scammed.
[YT]XVsPHRsCvlY[/YT][YT]XBjQy9LHpcs[/YT]

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

[quote=GTripp0012;886183]I disagree that trading draft picks for other draft picks is somehow costing you value in the long run. [/quote]


It's a simple numbers game. Would have have more of a chance of winning the lottery if I gave you 100 tickets or if I game you 1?


[quote=Son Of Man;886185]I keep hearing the "we can't afford to take risks"...."let's stockpile our picks" arguement.[/quote]


Nobody's said that. You are using part of what was said and nobody has said lets stockpile our picks.

I said we can't afford to take huge risks [U][B]NOW[/B][/U]. This doesn't mean not to take them at all or sometime in the near future. Huge difference in what I said and what you are saying.


[quote=EARTHQUAKE2689;886188]This is for you NC_Skins:

[url=http://www.ps3youtube.com/v/john-cena-my-time-is-now-_JAa3NvP6f4]John Cena - My Time Is Now - boxyorkata - PS3 Youtube - Watch HD Youtube On PS3 - Gametrailers - Revision3[/url][/quote]

Whadda know? That was Vinny's theme song too. Good company.

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

[quote=Ruhskins;886204]And I've heard: "There are lies, damned lies, and statistics"

Speaking of the first-round QB and SB wins. Aaron Rodgers doesn't count on that argument. Although he was picked up in the first round (late in the first), Rodgers sat for three years on the bench, and I am sure anyone who's making a case for RG3 is not saying that we should pick him up to sit him for three years.[/quote]

I don't see why that excludes him from the data....even so it only changes the data by 1 Super Bowl out of the last 20.

Look. I am not saying that drafting a QB high is a lock for the Lombardi trophy....it does appear that it can help though.

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

[quote=Son Of Man;886199]...and the season after that...and the season after that....and[/quote]Not to step on Dirtbag's toes because this is kind of his territory, but you can do it either way. Sure you can give up one draft and try to land the best QB, because eventually, if the player pans out, you will make up for it in the long run.

That's never not true. You can also do what NC_Skins is suggesting, and build up your roster this season...and the season after that...and the season after that, until you find the QB of your future is already on your roster. That happens sometimes.

Most teams prefer to do it your way: get the quarterback, fill in the rest later. The Parcells/Belichick model is really the only one that suggests you can find your quarterback internally if you keep picking intriguing guys that one else believes in, which is why Brady is where he is and Romo is where he is.

Getting RG3 and building around him later isn't a wrong move, but you still have to be VERY comfortable with the player, if the actual return on the investment isn't going to be noticeable for five or six years. If you're comfortable with the player, I say go for it. But then don't try to trade for Jay Cutler three years in when you haven't yet received ROI.

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

[QUOTE=Ruhskins;886190]Well you wouldn't be able to surround the young QB with a lot of new talent this season (since you'd be giving up picks), but possibly the next season.[/QUOTE]

I would consider Helu/Hightower/Royster/Hankerson/Davis young talent. Throw Dwayne Bowe in there and you've got something.

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

[quote=NC_Skins;886207]It's a simple numbers game. Would have have more of a chance of winning the lottery if I gave you 100 tickets or if I game you 1? [/quote]Could be either, depending on how the different games are structured.

With the caveat of: if we have a chance to turn this 6th overall pick into 100 picks anywhere in the draft, I think we should do it, no matter who is available at the 6th pick.

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

NC:

I respectfully disagree...do it now (if they have targeted a guy they like).

All due respect....Vinny jokes are getting a tad stale. Just saying, I appreciate original material.

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

[quote=Dirtbag59;886194]And there are sources that point to the Redskins going after Griffin. Granted I would bet on them signing Peyton at this point but it's certainly not outside the realm of possibility that they will trade up for RGIII.

[url=http://washington.cbslocal.com/2012/02/08/haslett-insider-confirms-discussion/]Haslett “Insider” Confirms Chat « CBS DC[/url][/quote]

I didn't say they weren't interested in RGIII or that they weren't going to move up. I said they weren't going to sell the farm for him.

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

Have your nurse call me secretary. Had a similar case last year when a client was being sued for eating while removing tonsils. Knocked it out in 15 minutes.

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

[quote=NC_Skins;886215]I didn't say they weren't interested in RGIII or that they weren't going to move up. I said they weren't going to sell the farm for him.[/quote]

I wouldn't sell the whole farm.

But I would slaughter a couple of cows, butcher a few pigs and break some chicken necks....to make room for a prized Stallion I could put out to stud.

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

[quote=Son Of Man;886213]NC:

I respectfully disagree...do it now (if they have targeted a guy they like).

All due respect....Vinny jokes are getting a tad stale. Just saying, I appreciate original material.[/quote]


No. What's getting stale is the..........TRADE IT ALL FOR THIS GUY BECAUSE HE"S THE SURE FIRE THING.....mentality. How about you practice your own advice and try something new instead of what we've been doing the past 12 years. Until that mentality changes, it's Vinnish and always will be. I just find it ironic that many of you are exactly like the guy you profess to hate or despise.

I like RGIII and would love for him to be on this team, but not at the expense of what some of you are willing to give up. That said, there is a certain amount I would be fine with doing. Hell, I would rather move up to the #3 or #4 than the #2.

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

[quote=NC_Skins;886219]No. What's getting stale is the..........TRADE IT ALL FOR THIS GUY BECAUSE HE"S THE SURE FIRE THING.....mentality. How about you practice your own advice and try something new instead of what we've been doing the past 12 years.[/quote]

NEWS FLASH:

We have a different Front Office.

Maybe some hourly paid couch time might help you get past the trauma you suffered during the Ceratto era?

Now...breathe in, breathe out....isn't that soothing

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

[quote=Son Of Man;886220]NEWS FLASH:

We have a different Front Office.

Maybe some hourly paid couch time might help you get past the trauma you suffered during the Ceratto era?

Now...breathe in, breathe out....isn't that soothing[/quote]


I know and I'm glad for it. I have confidence they'll make the right decision. If it be a trade up, stay put, or move back in the draft. I'll be fine with it as long as we don't put all our eggs in one basket.

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

In the end I feel that Shanahan is not going to have one single strategy in mind. How this all develops will be a series of cause/effect situations happening. For instance here is my take:

Free Agency: The Redskins will look for a viable FA QB in free agency. If a healthy Manning is an option, I think MS goes for him. It gives him a lot of flexibility in the draft and the team will be able to keep their picks. Worst case scenario the team will sign some FA QB that is a viable starter, this will be important for any trade up negotiations. The Redskins will also look at the deep free agent class of WRs to possibly get their #1 receiver. Also, I am sure they will look for o-line depth, and defensive players.

Draft: With Manning or a viable FA QB starter, the Redskins may be in a better position to negotiate, as they will not appear to be desperate for RG3. So here is where a lot of things could happen or not happen. The Browns have the most ammo, but if they acquire a FA QB, then I think we become the next best trading partner. Also, RG3 could miraculously fall to us. Or we could trade up (esp if we don't have Manning), but hopefully it will mean that we won't be betting the farm. I think that if we do come out of free agency with a mediocre QB (e.g. another Grossman) then we are going to get bent over in a trade up.

My point with this is that anything can happen. There are good and bad reasons for acquiring Manning, there are good or bad reasons for trading up for RG3. At least we have options this year. We could be stuck with a terrible QB free agent class and having to overpay in a trade to get RG3.

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

The Redskins have great flexibility in free agency to add contracts the way that the other NFC East teams do not have, and I think they will leverage that flexibility. I mean, you sign a bunch of 25 and 26 year olds and then you pay a huge price to go get Griffin, and you've managed to improve the team without mortgaging the future.

The problem is that, even if you do a great job with contract structure, there's going to be a certain percentage of the free agent class that just -- for lack of a better term -- doesn't fit, and you'll be overcoming it all season which is incredibly problematic if you don't have young depth behind it. Given a year to get it all right, you can always throw away the parts that didn't work out and keep the parts that did, but the biggest problem is that Mike Shanahan doesn't have a year to throw away.

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

[quote=GTripp0012;886227]The Redskins have great flexibility in free agency to add contracts the way that the other NFC East teams do not have, and I think they will leverage that flexibility. I mean, you sign a bunch of 25 and 26 year olds and then you pay a huge price to go get Griffin, and you've managed to improve the team without mortgaging the future.

The problem is that, even if you do a great job with contract structure, there's going to be a certain percentage of the free agent class that just -- for lack of a better term -- doesn't fit, and you'll be overcoming it all season which is incredibly problematic if you don't have young depth behind it. Given a year to get it all right, you can always throw away the parts that didn't work out and keep the parts that did, [B]but the biggest problem is that Mike Shanahan doesn't have a year to throw away.[/B][/quote]

And this is where his two wasted years of QB blunders will come back and haunt MS.

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

Think of the Adam Archuleta signing in 2006 and how Gregg Williams was planning on starting Pierson Prioleau at SS that season. And then on the opening kickoff of the season (because someone has to cover kicks), Prioleau tears his knee up and you're stuck watching Archuleta get torched in coverage for seven games. If your Plan B is not existent, a Plan A such as I outlined above can work against you.

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

[quote=Ruhskins;886230]And this is where his two wasted years of QB blunders will come back and haunt MS.[/quote]The single biggest problem with the Shanahan era has been that other part: that in terms of the moves he made, you can't really group it by moves that have worked out, and moves that haven't worked out. The two groups have been: moves that have failed spectacularly (McNabb, Brown, unfortunately Hightower), and moves that still could go either way (Banks, Cofield, Wilson, Atogwe, Bowen). There is no group of guys who have achieved great success in the NFL (Kerrigan? Even that's jumping to conclusions).

The moves that worked out great have been Vonnie Holliday, Jabar Gaffney, Sav Rocca. Those guys were all too old to be franchise cornerstones, and the offensive weapon of the group is the punter.

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

[quote=Son Of Man;886185]I keep hearing the "we can't afford to take risks"...."let's stockpile our picks" arguement.

It's like a guy who gets his undergrad degree...gets offered a high paying job with big bonus incentives (performance based of course)...and turns it down because he doesn't want to risk not getting his MBA before hitting the field. He takes more years, gets his MBA, and comes out making the same money he was offered after undergrad...then he realizes that he could have "taken a risk", took the job, earned his MBA part-time, built up his resume and would have been making more $$$$.


Long and corny way to say....get our QB of the future and build around him while we develop him. Don't be afraid to multi-task.[/quote]

We can't take risks for a guy that's not pro ready. The issue I have is we're not getting Luck, who's more pro ready than RG3.

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

[quote=NC_Skins;886223]I know and I'm glad for it. I have confidence they'll make the right decision. If it be a trade up, stay put, or move back in the draft. I'll be fine with it as long as we don't put all our eggs in one basket.[/quote]What if that one basket was named Andrew Luck?

Given the Shanahan era to date, if I said you could get Andrew Luck in a trade with the Colts, but it would cost you every pick in the 2012 draft and the 2013 first rounder, would you trade an entire draft for the guy?

I'd have to imagine you would, because there is a good chance the Colts would turn that offer down if it was actually made to them.

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

[quote=Dirtbag59;886197]Exactly. By the way that jerk I operated on last week wants to sue me. Said surfing the web on my smart phone during emergency surgery counts as Malpractice.[/quote]

Sounds like they should be suing the anesthesiologist. Emergency surgery should put the patient under. If the patient could tell what you were doing while operating on them, that's somebody else's problem... :)

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

[quote=skinsfan69;886240]We can't take risks for a guy that's not pro ready. The issue I have is we're not getting Luck, who's more pro ready than RG3.[/quote]

Analogy:

Given the choice between Giada DeLaurentis and Kate Upton.

I'll marry the sexier lady and teach her how to cook later. We'll just order take out for a while.

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

[quote=NM Redskin;886175]I hate you. But really sick car.[/quote]

Don't hate. Classic cars and race cars is my thing. I build'em restore'em and drive'em. That car is sick. All original numbers matching engine and trans. Raven Black with Red Stripes, Black interior. The car is considered a survivor. As in it has never been painted or restored. It is in great shape though for being older than me by 9 years!! Completely original. We picked it up during the recession. Classic cars took a big hit just like the rest of the economy. It was like buying a stock that you know is going to come back.

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

[quote=SkinzWin;886144]I want to see! I have a lowly 1970 Mustang Fastback 302... :([/quote]

I'll post a pick in a couple of days in one of the other threads. If I can figure out how!

My daughter has surgery in the am and will not be home till Saturday. So sometime next week I will get it done.

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

[QUOTE=skinsfan69;886240]We can't take risks for a guy that's not pro ready. The issue I have is we're not getting Luck, who's more pro ready than RG3.[/QUOTE]

You mean how Cam Newton wasn't pro ready? Because i'll take that not pro ready every day of the week.

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

EarthQuake, we aren't going to see a guy do what Cam did anytime soon. That guy was just a freak and is not comparable to RGIII. Completely different players.

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

What was the notion of Cam Newton this time last year? That he wasn't pro ready. We don't know what we will see from RGIII or Luck next year. For all we know they both could pass for 3,500 yards and 25 TDs.

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

[quote=EARTHQUAKE2689;886282]What was the notion of Cam Newton this time last year? That he wasn't pro ready. We don't know what we will see from RGIII or Luck next year. For all we know they both could pass for 3,500 yards and 25 TDs.[/quote]

Oh Cam wasn't pro ready at all. Even in the preseason he looked lost. Then for some reason he became a Pro Bowl QB. Now the Panthers are contenders in the NFC South.

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

I'll take that non pro ready everyday.