Re: Make your Case for non-HOFer
 

[quote=Mattyk;910748]He should get in. 9 Pro Bowls. One of the best at his position for years.[/quote]

I agree, but that by no means is a lock. Look at my example of Maxie Baughan another 9 Time Pro Bowler at linebacker who also won the NFL Championship in 1960 with the Eagles.

Look how long it took Hanburger to get into the Hall.

Re: Make your Case for non-HOFer
 

Pudge Heffelfinger

Re: Make your Case for non-HOFer
 

[quote=Leader In Sports;910772]I agree, but that by no means is a lock. Look at my example of Maxie Baughan another 9 Time Pro Bowler at linebacker who also won the NFL Championship in 1960 with the Eagles.

Look how long it took Hanburger to get into the Hall.[/quote]

Yeah, but he got in. If you reach the pro bowl a minimum of 7 times and are all pro at least 4 of those times, and you have a long successful career-you are a lock to EVENTUALLY make the HOF.

Its getting harder and harder to make all-pro as the population of our country increases, the depth of talent does as well. Dawkins making it 5 times (4 1st team) is astounding, and as making the all pro team becomes more and more difficult the amount that Dawkins made it will be regarded even higher as time goes on.

Re: Make your Case for non-HOFer
 

[quote=skinster;910826]Yeah, but he got in. If you reach the pro bowl a minimum of 7 times and are all pro at least 4 of those times, and you have a long successful career-you are a lock to EVENTUALLY make the HOF.

Its getting harder and harder to make all-pro as the population of our country increases, the depth of talent does as well. Dawkins making it 5 times (4 1st team) is astounding, and as making the all pro team becomes more and more difficult the amount that Dawkins made it will be regarded even higher as time goes on.[/quote]

I am not disputing your logic at all. There is just a list of guys who 9 pro bowls who are not yet in Canton. Why Dawkins over all of them?

Re: Make your Case for non-HOFer
 

[quote=Leader In Sports;910844]I am not disputing your logic at all. There is just a list of guys who 9 pro bowls who are not yet in Canton. Why Dawkins over all of them?[/quote]

Don't know who your referring to, but IMO its not Dawkins over any of them, but Dawkins with them.

Re: Make your Case for non-HOFer
 

[quote=skinster;910860]Don't know who your referring to, but IMO its not Dawkins over any of them, but Dawkins with them.[/quote]

1960 World Champion Eagle, 9 Time Pro Bowl Linebacker: [url=http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/B/BaugMa00.htm]Maxie Baughan NFL Football Statistics - Pro-Football-Reference.com[/url]

Re: Make your Case for non-HOFer
 

[quote=Leader In Sports;910869]1960 World Champion Eagle, 9 Time Pro Bowl Linebacker: [URL="http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/B/BaugMa00.htm"]Maxie Baughan NFL Football Statistics - Pro-Football-Reference.com[/URL][/quote]

I think one reason a guy like Dawkins might get in before a guy like Baughan would be because voters today are more familiar with Dawkins' work than they are with Baughan's. Since Baughan is probably only eligible to get in through a Seniors Committee nomination we have no idea if he'll even get a nomination until it actually happens.

Re: Make your Case for non-HOFer
 

[quote=mooby;910872]I think one reason a guy like Dawkins might get in before a guy like Baughan would be because voters today are more familiar with Dawkins' work than they are with Baughan's. Since Baughan is probably only eligible to get in through a Seniors Committee nomination we have no idea if he'll even get a nomination until it actually happens.[/quote]

You are right about the senior committee. The problem is there are so many guys who just didn't get the proper press etc when they played, there is a back log. I am willing to bet for half of the modern era guys in each class that get in, there are 2 senior guys who have better numbers etc in that position who won't, just because of press coverage.

Re: Make your Case for non-HOFer
 

[quote=Ruhskins;910740]Speaking of the HOF, any thoughts about Brian Dawkins retirement and whether he'll be a HOF'er? I am leaning towards no given that he has played in the same era as Ed Reed and Polamalu, who are sure HOF'ers.[/quote]

Dawkins also played 5-6 years before Polamalu and Reed played. Dawkins. During his long career, Dawkins went to 9 pro bowls. That alone should put him on the HOF ballot.

Re: Make your Case for non-HOFer
 

[quote=REDSKINS4ever;910903]Dawkins also played 5-6 years before Polamalu and Reed played. Dawkins. During his long career, Dawkins went to 9 pro bowls. That alone should put him on the HOF ballot.[/quote]

True but it will depend on when Reed and/or Polamalu retire. I think there are some good arguments for Dawkins, I just hope it doesn't get to a situation when him and the likes of Reed and/or Polamalu are up for the hall.

Re: Make your Case for non-HOFer
 

[quote=Ruhskins;910913]True but it will depend on when Reed and/or Polamalu retire. I think there are some good arguments for Dawkins, I just hope it doesn't get to a situation when him and the likes of Reed and/or Polamalu are up for the hall.[/quote]


@ Ruhskins- Ed Reed has 57 interceptions during his career. Troy Polamalu has only 29 interceptions. Ed Reed is definitely headed to the Pro Football Hall of Fame. I'm not so sure about the Pittsburgh Steeler. Troy Polamalu plays excellently, but Dawkins did also.

Re: Make your Case for non-HOFer
 

i bet polamalu has a lot more tackles for losses

Re: Make your Case for non-HOFer
 

Here's the thing about the Hall of fame that most people don't get. It is the called the Hall of the Great, but realistically it is the hall of the very very good. Break it down mathematecially...an average of 6 players get in per year, but for arguments sake lets round down to 5. The average career of a HOF player is at least 11 years. That means that playing today, there is a minimum of 55 players that will make the HOF (really its much more than that as I was being conservative). You think you can name 55 players playing today that are some of the all time greats? I can't. The HOF is the HOTVVG.

Re: Make your Case for non-HOFer
 

[quote=skinster;910939]Here's the thing about the Hall of fame that most people don't get. It is the called the Hall of the Great, but realistically it is the hall of the very very good. Break it down mathematecially...an average of 6 players get in per year, but for arguments sake lets round down to 5. The average career of a HOF player is at least 11 years. That means that playing today, there is a minimum of 55 players that will make the HOF (really its much more than that as I was being conservative). You think you can name 55 players playing today that are some of the all time greats? I can't. The HOF is the HOTVVG.[/quote]show that math please

Re: Make your Case for non-HOFer
 

[quote=skinster;910939]Here's the thing about the Hall of fame that most people don't get. It is the called the Hall of the Great, but realistically it is the hall of the very very good. Break it down mathematecially...an average of 6 players get in per year, but for arguments sake lets round down to 5. The average career of a HOF player is at least 11 years. That means that playing today, there is a minimum of 55 players that will make the HOF (really its much more than that as I was being conservative). You think you can name 55 players playing today that are some of the all time greats? I can't. The HOF is the HOTVVG.[/quote]

I'm just going to (conservatively) say that there are 5 nfl players inducted to the HOF, whose average career is 12 years, which would mean there are roughly 60 HOF players playing now. I'm going to only include players who have completed 5 or more seasons in this estimation, as with the exceptions of Drew Brees, Eli Manning, and Charles Woodson, it was abundantly obvious where each of these players were headed by the end of their 5th season. Under the restriction I should be able to find 35 players who will make the hall.
QBs
1. Tom Brady
2. Peyton Manning
3. Drew Brees
4. Ben Roethelssberger
5. Aaron Rodgers
6. Eli Manning

RBs
7. Ladanian Tomlinson
8. Adrian Peterson

TEs
9. Tony Gonzolez
10. Antonio Gates or Jason Witten...Grahm/Gronk/injuries will keep one out

WRs
12. Calvin Johnson
13. Andre Johnson
13. Larry Fitzgerald
14. Randy Moss
15. Terrell Owens

OT
16. Joe Thomas

OG
17. Steve Hutchinson

C
18. Nick Mangold

S
19. Ed Reed
20. Troy Polamalu
21. Brian Dawkins

CB
22. Darell Revis
23. Champ Bailey
24. Charles Woodson

ILB
25. Ray Lewis
26. Patrick Willis
28. Brian Urlacher

OLB
29. Demarcus Ware
30. Jason Taylor

DE
31. Jared Allen
32. Dwight Freeney
33. Julius Peppers
34. Richard Seymour

DT
35. Vince Wilfork
36. Haloti Ngata
37. Kevin Williams

I was able to get 37. This seems about right. Taking into consideration that there will be roughly 3 more that will get in that have played 5 years, and taking into consideration that a couple might get injured, those balance out to be null. I also severely undershot this list. 5 players per year is an undershot, and an average career length of 12 years is an undershot. The old players that will get in will make the number of current HOFers a little lower, but not by much as one day the current players will be the old players preventing future players from getting in.

Bottom line, there are at least 60 HOF players playing today, and through Math, its pretty obvious who most of them are going to be. This is obviously not 100% accurate, but I'd be shocked if my list isn't 85% accurate.

Re: Make your Case for non-HOFer
 

[quote=los panda;910944]show that math please[/quote]

The math is really nothing more than the average number of HOF inductees per year (roughly 6) multiplied by the average career length of a HOF player (roughly 13). That is the amount of HOF players that should be playing right now. Roughly it should be about 78 players. I was conservative by saying 5 and 12 in my last post, but 6 inductees per year and an average of a 13 year career is more accurate.

Re: Make your Case for non-HOFer
 

You are forgetting the LONG list of guys who haven't made the HOF but are eligible now. As a Steeler fan let's just look at Bettis. You can also look at Monk as an example. There is a back log of greats waiting their turn to get into Canton, so your Hall of Very Good just doesn't cut it.

Re: Make your Case for non-HOFer
 

[quote=Leader In Sports;910964]You are forgetting the LONG list of guys who haven't made the HOF but are eligible now. As a Steeler fan let's just look at Bettis. You can also look at Monk as an example. There is a back log of greats waiting their turn to get into Canton, so your Hall of Very Good just doesn't cut it.[/quote]

No, I'm not forgetting anyone. I know that. But I also recognize that these guys will be put on that list one day, and these will be the guys getting in at the end of their eligibility, just like Monk did. It is the Hall of the very good, no ifs ands or butts about it.

If Bettis gets in, that just proves its the hall of the very good. Over his career, the guy had 3.9 yards per carry....that's atrocious. He averaged 7 tds/year...doing better at the end of his career. He didn't ever catch the ball, and he wasn' good with ball security.

What's his claim to fame? He was fat, played forever, and was given the ball alot. Didn't do a whole lot of good when he got it though.

Re: Make your Case for non-HOFer
 

[quote=skinster;910966]No, I'm not forgetting anyone. I know that. But I also recognize that these guys will be put on that list one day, and these will be the guys getting in at the end of their eligibility, just like Monk did. It is the Hall of the very good, no ifs ands or butts about it.

If Bettis gets in, that just proves its the hall of the very good. Over his career, the guy had 3.9 yards per carry....that's atrocious. He averaged 7 tds/year...doing better at the end of his career. He didn't ever catch the ball, and he wasn' good with ball security.

What's his claim to fame? He was fat, played forever, and was given the ball alot. Didn't do a whole lot of good when he got it though.[/quote]
And he is something like the 5th or 7th ALL TIME leading rusher in the NFL.

fyi - insulting Bettis to a Steeler fan is saying Monk should have never made the HOF to a Redskin fan. (before I get jumped on, Monk should have been a first ballot guy).

Re: Make your Case for non-HOFer
 

[quote=Leader In Sports;910982]And he is something like the 5th or 7th ALL TIME leading rusher in the NFL.

fyi - insulting Bettis to a Steeler fan is saying Monk should have never made the HOF to a Redskin fan. (before I get jumped on, Monk should have been a first ballot guy).[/quote]

I can't speak to what era Monk played in, so I don't have much to compare him to. But if you look at his production, he has a career high of 8 tds and only five 1,0000 yd seasons. Doesn't look "great" to me, unless that was somehow good for WRs in his day.

Really the argument that seems to be going on here is cumulative career numbers vs impact of season by season. I'm of the camp that a player that plays at an elite level for around 7 years or so should be considered to the HOF. I don't believe that a player playing longer and thus upping his numbers should improve his status in the HOF at all. Bettis might be 6th on the all time rushing list (although he is 18th on yds from scrimmage), but he didn't have more than 4 good seasons in his entire career...and only 3 of them were with the steelers.

Re: Make your Case for non-HOFer
 

I like the bus ... but he'll wait a while and nit certain he makes it... in the voters wacky view

Re: Make your Case for non-HOFer
 

[quote=skinster;910994][B]I can't speak to what era Monk played in, so I don't have much to compare him to. But if you look at his production, he has a career high of 8 tds and only five 1,0000 yd seasons. Doesn't look "great" to me, unless that was somehow good for WRs in his day. [/B]

Really the argument that seems to be going on here is cumulative career numbers vs impact of season by season. I'm of the camp that a player that plays at an elite level for around 7 years or so should be considered to the HOF. I don't believe that a player playing longer and thus upping his numbers should improve his status in the HOF at all. Bettis might be 6th on the all time rushing list (although he is 18th on yds from scrimmage), but he didn't have more than 4 good seasons in his entire career...and only 3 of them were with the steelers.[/quote]
And Monk was the all time leading receiver upon his retirement.

Yes, the HOF is a look at your body of work, not just a portion of it.

Re: Make your Case for non-HOFer
 

Looking at the considerable backlog of well qualified players, I find it hard to say the Hall is just for the very good.

Re: Make your Case for non-HOFer
 

[quote=Leader In Sports;911048]And Monk was the all time leading receiver upon his retirement.

Yes, the HOF is a look at your body of work, not just a portion of it.[/quote]

so if I'm a WR who plays for 20 seasons and gets 800 yards every year, I deserve to be in the HOF?

I know that is how the hall works. I just don't think that makes a player great. Thats why I call it the Hall of the very good.

The backlog is there because very good players keep getting inducted, and very good players are on the backlog.

Re: Make your Case for non-HOFer
 

[quote=skinster;911075]so if I'm a WR who plays for 20 seasons and gets 800 yards every year, I deserve to be in the HOF?

I know that is how the hall works. I just don't think that makes a player great. Thats why I call it the Hall of the very good.

The backlog is there because very good players keep getting inducted, and very good players are on the backlog.[/quote]

The Hall represents a pretty small % of players, 267 are in the Hall now. When you consider how many players have come and gone, not sure how you can say these guys were just very good.

Re: Make your Case for non-HOFer
 

[quote=skinster;911075]so if I'm a WR who plays for 20 seasons and gets 800 yards every year, I deserve to be in the HOF?

I know that is how the hall works. I just don't think that makes a player great. Thats why I call it the Hall of the very good.

The backlog is there because very good players keep getting inducted, and very good players are on the backlog.[/quote]

What da ****??

You have any idea how hard it is to even make the NFL?

Re: Make your Case for non-HOFer
 

[quote=SmootSmack;911096][B]What da ****??[/B]

You have any idea how hard it is to even make the NFL?[/quote]

LOL.

#ThingsyouneverexpectSStosay.

Re: Make your Case for non-HOFer
 

[quote=Mattyk;911083]The Hall represents a pretty small % of players, 267 are in the Hall now. When you consider how many players have come and gone, not sure how you can say these guys were just very good.[/quote]
Yea, what he said.

Re: Make your Case for non-HOFer
 

[quote=Mattyk;911083]The Hall represents a pretty small % of players, 267 are in the Hall now. When you consider how many players have come and gone, not sure how you can say these guys were just very good.[/quote]

I guess the issue is the standards we are talking about. I could list an incredible amount of players that I feel weren't "great" that made it. Maybe in your mind they were. There are even some players that are an absolute joke that made it.

Floyd Little, Lynn Swann, Marcus Allen, John Stallworth, and Bob Hayes at a glance.

Floyd Little-Inducted [B]2010[/B], Played 9 seasons. Averaged 702 yards a season at 3.9 yards per carry and 4.7 touchdowns per season.
This guy getting inducted 2 years ago isn't a backlog of great players. Its a backlog of good players somehow bumping out better players.

All the players that should be in, but aren't will inevitably get in. They will just have to wait their turn as the backlog pushes them back.

Re: Make your Case for non-HOFer
 

[quote=SmootSmack;911096]What da ****??

You have any idea how hard it is to even make the NFL?[/quote]

I fully appreciate just how hard it is to make it onto a COLLEGE team. Making it in the NFL is no small feat. They are all great players relative to the world. But greatness IN the NFL isn't judged by how good a player is relative to the world; its how good he is relative to the rest of the NFL.

When I say a player is very good, not great; I am not trying to insinuate he is not incredible at football; every player in the NFL is incredible. I'm saying that greatness is being elite among all the amazing players in the NFL.

Re: Make your Case for non-HOFer
 

Wait, you are really saying that John Stallworth doesn't belong in the Hall of Fame? Marcus Allen does not belong in the Hall of Fame?

:spank:
Shame on you.

:smashfrea

Not only does it take the stats, but you have to look at the body of work. If you don't comprehend that, then it is hard to discuss the topic with you.

So, a defensive player who played before they kept the stat for sacks, shouldn't ever be allowed in Canton because he doesn't have the numbers?

Re: Make your Case for non-HOFer
 

Sorry for the tripple post; but I'd like someone to respond to why my assertion that there will be roughly 72 NFL players playing today that will one day make the HOF. I did the math, and there was an average of 6 HOF inductees over the last 5 years, and everyone drafted in the 1980s or after had an average career of 14 seasons. When we do the math that means that there should be 84 HOF players taken today; but for conservancy's sake I shortened the average length of a HOF player to 12 to make it at roughly 72 HOF players playing today (rookies through 18 year vets).

Don't tell me that "there is a backlog preventing these players from getting in." Because one day the current players will be the backlog preventing future players from getting in.

Are you really telling me you think that there are 72 players playing today whose end of their careers will warrant the tag, "greatness?" I don't.

Re: Make your Case for non-HOFer
 

[quote=Leader In Sports;911127]Wait, you are really saying that John Stallworth doesn't belong in the Hall of Fame? Marcus Allen does not belong in the Hall of Fame?

:spank:
Shame on you.

:smashfrea

Not only does it take the stats, but you have to look at the body of work. If you don't comprehend that, then it is hard to discuss the topic with you.

So, a defensive player who played before they kept the stat for sacks, shouldn't ever be allowed in Canton because he doesn't have the numbers?[/quote]

The stats are the body of work for those two positions. Defensive end is different. For example, Howie Long does not have very good sack statistics. I never saw him play, but I've asked people who have and they told me that he completely took over games. I can accept that as a D-Lineman can impact the game without recording any statistics.
Both a WR and a D-Lineman can be double teamed and record no statistics. But a D-linemen can still make an impact through pushing the pocket in the direction he desires. A WR can either get open to make the catch, or not.

Statistics pretty much define the WR and the RB position. As their (significant, game changing) impact is limited to the ways in which they can advance the ball.

Re: Make your Case for non-HOFer
 

[quote=skinster;911136]Sorry for the tripple post; but I'd like someone to respond to why my assertion that there will be roughly 72 NFL players playing today that will one day make the HOF. I did the math, and there was an average of 6 HOF inductees over the last 5 years, and everyone drafted in the 1980s or after had an average career of 14 seasons. When we do the math that means that there should be 84 HOF players taken today; but for conservancy's sake I shortened the average length of a HOF player to 12 to make it at roughly 72 HOF players playing today (rookies through 18 year vets).

Don't tell me that "there is a backlog preventing these players from getting in." Because one day the current players will be the backlog preventing future players from getting in.

Are you really telling me you think that there are 72 players playing today whose end of their careers will warrant the tag, "greatness?" I don't.[/quote]

Your math breaks down because HoFer's tend to have longer careers. The average career number that you are using is way off for ALL players. Therefore there would be far fewer than 72 current players inducted.

Re: Make your Case for non-HOFer
 

[quote=Lotus;911142]Your math breaks down because HoFer's tend to have longer careers. The average career number that you are using is way off for ALL players. Therefore there would be far fewer than 72 current players inducted.[/quote]

The length of the average NFL players career is irrelevant as the HOF only inducts players with HOF careers.
I'm not saying that there are 72 players who are incredible right now, simply that there are 72 players playing right now whose career will end up in the HOF. Some might be rookies, some might be in their 14th year, but the math is pretty undeniable that ALOT of today's players will make the HOF.

Re: Make your Case for non-HOFer
 

[quote=skinster;911138]The stats are the body of work for those two positions. Defensive end is different. For example, Howie Long does not have very good sack statistics. I never saw him play, but I've asked people who have and they told me that he completely took over games. I can accept that as a D-Lineman can impact the game without recording any statistics.
Both a WR and a D-Lineman can be double teamed and record no statistics. But a D-linemen can still make an impact through pushing the pocket in the direction he desires. A WR can either get open to make the catch, or not.

Statistics pretty much define the WR and the RB position. As their (significant, game changing) impact is limited to the ways in which they can advance the ball.[/quote]

You cannot compare stats of a receiver from the 70's to the modern era guys. The game has completely evolved. You have to look at the player and how they effected the game and the opposition.

Based on your logic, Paul Krause should have been a first ballot HOFer since he still has the most ever interceptions [url=http://www.profootballhof.com/hof/member.aspx?PlayerId=116]Hall of Famers » PAUL KRAUSE[/url]

It took Paul 20 years to be inducted in Canton.

If you used your logic, Sam Huff would still be waiting to be inducted since he only went to 5 pro bowls.

Re: Make your Case for non-HOFer
 

[quote=skinster;911136]Sorry for the tripple post; but I'd like someone to respond to why my assertion that there will be roughly 72 NFL players playing today that will one day make the HOF. I did the math, and there was an average of 6 HOF inductees over the last 5 years, and everyone drafted in the 1980s or after had an average career of 14 seasons. When we do the math that means that there should be 84 HOF players taken today; but for conservancy's sake I shortened the average length of a HOF player to 12 to make it at roughly 72 HOF players playing today (rookies through 18 year vets).

Don't tell me that "there is a backlog preventing these players from getting in." Because one day the current players will be the backlog preventing future players from getting in.

Are you really telling me you think that there are 72 players playing today whose end of their careers will warrant the tag, "greatness?" I don't.[/quote]

The logic behind your math seems to be a little fuzzy at best, but I'll play along, 72/1696 players in the league right now = 4%. You really don't think 4% of the league consists of great players?

Re: Make your Case for non-HOFer
 

[quote=Mattyk;911155]The logic behind your math seems to be a little fuzzy at best, but I'll play along, 72/1696 players in the league right now = 4%. You really don't think 4% of the league consists of great players?[/quote]


Great is a relative term. Of course the best 4% of any profession is great at what they do. When I say greatness; I mean the type of greatness that deserves to have you to forever be enshrined as one of the best to EVER play the game. I think that's what the HOF should be for, and no I don't think that the top 4% warrants immortality in the hall.

Re: Make your Case for non-HOFer
 

Guess we'll have to agree to disagree then. If 4% is too high of a figure for you then we're not even in the same ballpark. And again, only 267 players in the Hall out of god only knows how many guys that have come through the league??

Re: Make your Case for non-HOFer
 

[quote=Mattyk;911225]Guess we'll have to agree to disagree then. If 4% is too high of a figure for you then we're not even in the same ballpark. And again, only 267 players in the Hall out of god only knows how many guys that have come through the league??[/quote]

I am not very good at math, but 4% of players make it to Canton? I would suggest the equation this way:

The number of players who have played in the NFL (in all it's forms) divided by the number of players enshrined in Canton. I doubt that would be 4% I doubt it would even be 1%.