Re: North Korea: Threat or Blackmailer?
 

It is about NK. But ... to fail to recognize that the situation has been ratcheted up b/c of NK's most recent rhetoric and is further complicated NK's reliance on China and vice-versa is to ignore a potentially explosive situation.

Regardless of NK's idiocy, our relations with China will take a much more serious turn if China feels the US is trying to exploit the situation.

Re: North Korea: Threat or Blackmailer?
 

[quote=JoeRedskin;1002048]It is about NK. But ... to fail to recognize that the situation has been ratcheted up b/c of NK's most recent rhetoric and is further complicated NK's reliance on China and vice-versa is to ignore a potentially explosive situation.

Regardless of NK's idiocy, our relations with China will take a much more serious turn if China feels the US is trying to exploit the situation.[/quote]

Agreed, and lately I think it has actually been going better.
China is showing signs of being exasperated with North Korea and is buying more and more into our sanction program.

Re: North Korea: Threat or Blackmailer?
 

China and the US need each other too much to strain our relations. End of story.

Re: North Korea: Threat or Blackmailer?
 

Yea buddy, gunboat diplomacy comin your way!

[url=http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2013/apr/4/us-would-seek-regime-change-north-korea-if-attack-/]U.S. would seek regime change in North Korea if attack occurs - Washington Times[/url]

Re: North Korea: Threat or Blackmailer?
 

Hopefully the DPRK will die with a whimper, not a bang. Like the USSR did.

Re: North Korea: Threat or Blackmailer?
 

daily first look

[url=http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2013/04/05/north-korea-aggression-could-strengthen-us-china-alliance/]North Korea's aggression could strengthen US-China alliance | Fox News[/url]

[url=http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/06/world/asia/tensions-with-north-korea-unsettle-souths-economy.html?pagewanted=all]Tensions With North Korea Unsettle South’s Economy[/url]

[url=http://www.aljazeera.com/news/asia-pacific/2013/04/201344231511247914.html]N Korea said to move second missile to coast - Asia-Pacific - Al Jazeera English[/url]

and oddly:
[url=http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/world/intercepted-north-korean-military-communications-reveal-plan-to-launch-missile/story-fnd134gw-1226612936097]North Korea urges Russia, Britain to evacuate embassies| Herald Sun[/url]
[QUOTE]A spokesman for Britain's Foreign Office told London's Daily Telegraph:

"We can confirm that the British embassy in Pyongyang received a communication from the North Korean government this morning.

"It said that the North Korean government would be unable to guarantee the safety of embassies and international organisations in the country in the event of conflict from April 10."[/QUOTE]

Re: North Korea: Threat or Blackmailer?
 

Loved this tweet from HTTR24-7: [QUOTE]Someone needs to sit Kim Jong Un down and show him Zero Dark Thirty.[/QUOTE]

Re: North Korea: Threat or Blackmailer?
 

I find it interesting that when a SK exec from Kaesong said that NK told them to be out by the 10th, he quickly backtracked, and yet now it looks like that was a deadline NK is imposing. I also find it interesting that the SK minister who at first said a 4th nuke test looked likely, now says it's routine movement. I don't think we are getting the real story from our government on all of this.

From the NK newspiece organization(google kcna):
[QUOTE] DPRK FM Statement Distributed as UNSC Official Document
Pyongyang, April 6 (KCNA) -- A statement of the DPRK Foreign Ministry was distributed as an official document of the UN Security Council S/2013/194 on April 1. The statement was made public on March 26 as regards the fact that the U.S. hostile act against the DPRK has reached the phase of a nuclear war. [/QUOTE]

I think our analysts really don't want to believe a madman may be in charge over there, but there rhetoric is way above anything in the near recent past. You can go to that KCNA link, and look at other periods of tension (I did that over this past weekend) and you can see that the words and rhetoric was never anything close to as bellicose and drumlike as it is now. Yes some of the phrases (referring to SK as a puppet, and touch and go politics, and some others) are similar, but this time, they consistently refer to the honorable final battle of reunification under the banner of Songun (or noble fight). And to the fact that the US has "laid seige" to them by the sanctions and refusing to acknowledge their rights as a sovereign nation. and so on and so on.

As the NK said, the moment of explosion is near. I really hope it's a temper tantrum, and not a "final battle to decide the outcome of the Korean Unification" as they are describing it.

Re: North Korea: Threat or Blackmailer?
 

[quote=CRedskinsRule;1002471]I find it interesting that when a SK exec from Kaesong said that NK told them to be out by the 10th, he quickly backtracked, and yet now it looks like that was a deadline NK is imposing. I also find it interesting that the SK minister who at first said a 4th nuke test looked likely, now says it's routine movement. I don't think we are getting the real story from our government on all of this.

From the NK newspiece organization(google kcna):


I[B] think our analysts really don't want to believe a madman may be in charge over there, but there rhetoric is way above anything in the near recent past. [/B] You can go to that KCNA link, and look at other periods of tension (I did that over this past weekend) and you can see that the words and rhetoric was never anything close to as bellicose and drumlike as it is now. Yes some of the phrases (referring to SK as a puppet, and touch and go politics, and some others) are similar, but this time, they consistently refer to the honorable final battle of reunification under the banner of Songun (or noble fight). And to the fact that the US has "laid seige" to them by the sanctions and refusing to acknowledge their rights as a sovereign nation. and so on and so on.

As the NK said, the moment of explosion is near. I[B] really hope it's a temper tantrum,[/B] and not a "final battle to decide the outcome of the Korean Unification" as they are describing it.[/quote]

I read somewhere (probably on one of the links in this thread) that Kim Jong Un ramped up his rhetoric so the top military commanders dont think hes a p#$$y. I dont know if its due to legitimate concerns of a military coup or just to make himself look strong.

Re: North Korea: Threat or Blackmailer?
 

[quote=BigHairedAristocrat;1002475]I read somewhere (probably on one of the links in this thread) that Kim Jong Un ramped up his rhetoric so the top military commanders dont think hes a p#$$y. I dont know if its due to legitimate concerns of a military coup or just to make himself look strong.[/quote]

He's the kid of a dictator who was the kid of a dictator, historically this does not bode well for rational decision making.

Re: North Korea: Threat or Blackmailer?
 

For those thinking China has a handle on this:
From [URL="http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/north-korea-nuclear-threats-classic-propaganda-ian-bremmer-152540401.html"]Yahoo news[/URL] (don't hate the source):

[QUOTE]Ian Bremmer, president of Eurasia Group, a global political risk research and consulting firm, joined The Daily Ticker remotely from New Dehli to discuss whether Washington should be concerned about the North Korean threats.

...

Bremmer was in China over the last couple of days and met with Chinese officials. "They wanted to make it clear that they hoped the U.S. recognized how much more the Chinese are trying to do to push the North Koreans," he says. [B]"[And] they made it clear they don't really have a direct line to Kim Jon-un right now."[/B]

"That should worry us," Bremmer adds.[/QUOTE]

Re: North Korea: Threat or Blackmailer?
 

And now for today's pronouncement:
[url=http://news.yahoo.com/north-korea-suspends-last-project-south-putin-cites-001526987.html]North Korea warns foreigners to leave South[/url]

Yes, I am buying into this guy thinks he can start, and win, a war on the Korean peninsula. I also believe that he deems respect very important(along the ways a mafia boss might look at respect), and that when he sees his warnings being so totally laughed at and ignored, both by SK citizens and foreign governments, he may very well become of the mindset "I'll show them who's effing around".

While I do think a missile test allows him to spin it as the forces of the DPRK standing up to the US, I'm not sure it's enough to settle his ego, or need for respect from the rest of the world.

Re: North Korea: Threat or Blackmailer?
 

Seems like the appropriate response (as opposed to the my ship's bigger than your ship gunship mentality of earlier)

[url=http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/u-working-escalate-north-korean-standoff-094001335--politics.html]Is the U.S. working to de-escalate a North Korean standoff?[/url]

Re: North Korea: Threat or Blackmailer?
 

[url]http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/390452/North-Korea-to-launch-missile-TOMORROW-after-warning-foreigners-to-evacuate-South??[/url]

[quote]NORTH Korea has completed preparations for a mid-range missile launch tomorrow from its east coast, officials in Seoul have revealed – just hours after foreigners living in South Korea were warned to quit the country.[/quote]


Eventually, if you keep talking shit, you are going to get smacked in the mouth. Telling people to leave SK, and then firing a "test" missile. It's asking to be attacked.


I still don't think this is Jong Un's doing, but more the people behind him. I think he still has to show his people and generals that he's a top dog just like his dad and grand pops.

Re: North Korea: Threat or Blackmailer?
 

[quote=NC_Skins;1002630][url]http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/390452/North-Korea-to-launch-missile-TOMORROW-after-warning-foreigners-to-evacuate-South??[/url]




Eventually, if you keep talking shit, you are going to get smacked in the mouth. Telling people to leave SK, and then firing a "test" missile. It's asking to be attacked.


I still don't think this is Jong Un's doing, but more the people behind him. I think he still has to show his people and generals that he's a top dog just like his dad and grand pops.[/quote]

I just don't understand why people(media) assume this is a test. I hope that the military isn't assuming that. I think he believes his country to be on equal par with the US now that he has useful nukes, and his military believes in the strength of numbers in terms of soldiers.

Re: North Korea: Threat or Blackmailer?
 

Its certainly possible it may not be a test.
Our analysts have stated that they do not have a missle that can reach Guam.
If that is correct and its not a test then South Korea or Japan will get nuked tomorrow.

Or we will shoot it down right after it enters international space.
Imagine the can of worms that will open.

Re: North Korea: Threat or Blackmailer?
 

[quote=CRedskinsRule;1002649]I just don't understand why people(media) assume this is a test. I hope that the military isn't assuming that. I think he believes his country to be on equal par with the US now that he has useful nukes, and his military believes in the strength of numbers in terms of soldiers.[/quote]

If it were an actual attack, do you think they'd be so obvious about it? One would think they'd be more sneaky.

Also, saying North Korea has "useful" nukes is a bit of an overstatement. they've only got a handful of nukes, and i'd be shocked if anyof them were even hiroshima-grade. Also, their missles dont have the range to go much further than Japan. I'm not saying countries in the region shouldnt be worried, but i'm not worried about N Koreas actual threat to the US.

The US and allied countries have thousands of nukes with essentially unlimited range, most of which are significantly more powerful than anything North Korea has.

North Korea might [I]think[/I] its on par with the US, but its not.

Re: North Korea: Threat or Blackmailer?
 

Japan getting hit by a NK nuke would just be sad, honestly in the great scheme of things what did Japan do to anybody to be the worlds nuclear wasteland?

I certainly don't think that NK is on par with us, but they do, and in terms of useful nukes, it only takes a few IF they use them. For all the nukes we have, there is no chance in this world that we would nuke NK, even if they nuked Japan. Korea would be a land war, and if NK felt they could launch a few nukes to equalize the battlefield, I think they might. They hate Japan, and have re-run articles on Japan's poor record when Korea was a colony of Japan.

I really hope that I've just bought into the paranoia, and that it all settles down in the next few days.

Re: North Korea: Threat or Blackmailer?
 

[quote=CRedskinsRule;1002704]Japan getting hit by a NK nuke would just be sad, honestly in the great scheme of things what did Japan do to anybody to be the worlds nuclear wasteland?

I certainly don't think that NK is on par with us, but they do, and in terms of useful nukes, it only takes a few IF they use them. For all the nukes we have, there is no chance in this world that we would nuke NK, even if they nuked Japan. [B]Korea would be a land war,[/B] and if NK felt they could launch a few nukes to equalize the battlefield, I think they might. They hate Japan, and have re-run articles on Japan's poor record when Korea was a colony of Japan.

I really hope that I've just bought into the paranoia, and that it all settles down in the next few days.[/quote]

I think the days of land wars are over. Theres simply no reason for it. I'd see tons of stealth areal bombings and Guerrilla warefare. theres no reason to send thousands of soldiers into battle if you can send in a few seal teams to paint targets and let planes take em out.

I also dont think the NK could nuke South Korea or Japan without equivalent retalliation.

Re: North Korea: Threat or Blackmailer?
 

[quote=BigHairedAristocrat;1002707]I think the days of land wars are over. Theres simply no reason for it. I'd see tons of stealth areal bombings and Guerrilla warefare. theres no reason to send thousands of soldiers into battle if you can send in a few seal teams to paint targets and let planes take em out.

I also dont think the NK could nuke South Korea or Japan without equivalent retalliation.[/quote]

How would you then hold the ground, rebuild the infrastructure and convert the people to happy quasi-Americans?

At some point you have to put boots on the ground unless it's just a retributive strike/scorched earth deal.

Re: North Korea: Threat or Blackmailer?
 

[quote=BigHairedAristocrat;1002707][B]I think the days of land wars are over. Theres simply no reason for it.[/B] I'd see tons of stealth areal bombings and Guerrilla warefare. theres no reason to send thousands of soldiers into battle if you can send in a few seal teams to paint targets and let planes take em out.

I also dont think the NK could nuke South Korea or Japan without equivalent retalliation.[/quote]
What do you call Afghanistan? I will not get started on the level of wounded soldiers coming back, or the dead, but NK is a land of tunnels and hardened bunkers. When you say guerrilla warfare, I am calling that land warfare, armed forces trying to recapture highland from a numerically superior enemy. Can we, and would we win, yes - depending on casualty count, and public reaction. But remember this is an entire society that lives day to day basically only on the glory and eventual defeat of the US. They have very little else to compare life too.

Re: North Korea: Threat or Blackmailer?
 

[quote=RedskinRat;1002711]How would you then hold the ground, rebuild the infrastructure and convert the people to happy quasi-Americans?

At some point you have to put boots on the ground unless it's just a retributive strike/scorched earth deal.[/quote]

North Korea is so indoctrinated/brainwashed,* I imagine any sort rebuilding infrastructure/conversion would be 100 times more difficult than in Iraq/Afghanistan. I dont see the US wanting to get involved in that. In all honesty, if Iraq didnt have oil, i think there would have bee more of a scorched earth approach there. North Korea has absolutely nothing the rest of the world cares about. I dont think a strong argument could be made not to take the scorched earth approach. Maybe im just cynical.

*[I]Note - this is where you accuse me of the same prejudice i accused you of in the middle eastern thread. :)[/I]

Re: North Korea: Threat or Blackmailer?
 

[quote=BigHairedAristocrat;1002694]

Also, saying North Korea has "useful" nukes is a bit of an overstatement. they've only got a handful of nukes, and i'd be shocked if anyof them were even hiroshima-grade. Also, their missles dont have the range to go much further than Japan. [/quote]


I stand corrected. North Korea has tested a missle that could hit Alaska.

[url=http://edition.cnn.com/interactive/2013/04/world/north-korea-missile-capabilities/]North Korea's missile capabilities[/url]

Re: North Korea: Threat or Blackmailer?
 

We also don't know what size nuke they actually have tested, only what we assume they have. Certainly they aren't going to be volleying hundreds of nukes a la WarGames, but they don't have to start a major confrontation.

Serious question: Hypothetically they test fire a long range ICBM, or even a midrange missile capable of hitting Guam, with a live nuke on it. But they aim it away from a live target, ie japan/guam. It explodes harmlessly in the pacific, but the point is made that they could have reached Guam effectively. What step should the US take?

Re: North Korea: Threat or Blackmailer?
 

Send in a QRF and abduct and hold Un after a UN resolution supporting action against a rogue state. Probably atek a week or two, but let's do things right.

Re: North Korea: Threat or Blackmailer?
 

[quote=CRedskinsRule;1002725]We also don't know what size nuke they actually have tested, only what we assume they have. Certainly they aren't going to be volleying hundreds of nukes a la WarGames, but they don't have to start a major confrontation.

Serious question: Hypothetically they test fire a long range ICBM, or even a midrange missile capable of hitting Guam, with a live nuke on it. But they aim it away from a live target, ie japan/guam. It explodes harmlessly in the pacific, but the point is made that they could have reached Guam effectively. What step should the US take?[/quote]

Surrender lol

Re: North Korea: Threat or Blackmailer?
 

[quote=BigHairedAristocrat;1002728]Surrender lol[/quote]

Perhaps this would be more appropriate?
[url=http://www.rodong.rep.kp/InterEn/index.php?strPageID=SF01_02_01&newsID=2013-04-09-0001&chAction=T]Floral Basket, Congratulatory Letters to Kim Jong Un[/url]

Re: North Korea: Threat or Blackmailer?
 

[quote=CRedskinsRule;1002729]Perhaps this would be more appropriate?
[url=http://www.rodong.rep.kp/InterEn/index.php?strPageID=SF01_02_01&newsID=2013-04-09-0001&chAction=T]Floral Basket, Congratulatory Letters to Kim Jong Un[/url][/quote]

Wtf is wrong with these people?

Re: North Korea: Threat or Blackmailer?
 

[quote=BigHairedAristocrat;1002747]Wtf is wrong with these people?[/quote]

I agree. I looked through their news releases trying to just kinda prove to myself that this was the normal junk they do every year, but this year's releases are just so far out there, even compared to their normal loopiness.


This is the headline banner from their daily newspaper (the Rodong Sinmun):
[quote]All out for a general offensive to achieve the prosperity of the
great Kim Il Sung's nation, Kim Jong Il's Korea![/quote]

Re: North Korea: Threat or Blackmailer?
 

[quote=BigHairedAristocrat;1002707][B]I think the days of land wars are over. [/B]Theres simply no reason for it. I'd see tons of stealth areal bombings and Guerrilla warefare. theres no reason to send thousands of soldiers into battle if you can send in a few seal teams to paint targets and let planes take em out.

I also dont think the NK could nuke South Korea or Japan without equivalent retalliation.[/quote]

What do you think the Iraq war was? Sure we hit them first by air but our main attack was by land and they ran the other way.

Re: North Korea: Threat or Blackmailer?
 

numbers aren't everything, but they do say somethings:

[IMG]http://resources.news.com.au/files/2013/04/04/1226612/440181-nd-north-korea-update.jpg[/IMG]

Re: North Korea: Threat or Blackmailer?
 

[url=http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/wp/2013/04/09/in-sign-of-chinese-frustration-with-north-korea-daily-show-clip-mocking-kim-racks-up-2-8-million-chinese-views/]In sign of Chinese frustration with North Korea, ‘Daily Show’ clip mocking Kim racks up 2.8 million Chinese views[/url]


:rofl:

Jon Stewart wins again.

Re: North Korea: Threat or Blackmailer?
 

[quote=CRedskinsRule;1002760]numbers aren't everything, but they do say somethings:

[IMG]http://resources.news.com.au/files/2013/04/04/1226612/440181-nd-north-korea-update.jpg[/IMG][/quote]

That chart looks like it was made by a high school student and is about as accurate.
If North korea has 700 fighter jets then my name is Alice Cooper.
Also to note is that some of the hyped up F-22s and B-2s that were out there are back in the US and they are grounded becaue of the sequestartiatationtartersaucetion crapola.

Re: North Korea: Threat or Blackmailer?
 

The F-22's aren't back from SK, and the B-2's for SK defense are not grounded.

The chart was published in the Australian newspaper, and is accurate to Jane's Weapons guide.

Re: North Korea: Threat or Blackmailer?
 

The US Air Force says otherwise.

[I]The grounding includes F-22s from the 1st Fighter Wing's 94th Fighter Squadron at Joint Base Langley-Eustis, Va.[COLOR="Red"] The squadron is returning[/COLOR] from a deployment to the Pacific where airmen participated in a high-profile exercise in South Korea.[/I]
[url=http://www.airforcetimes.com/article/20130408/NEWS/304080035/Reduced-flying-hours-forces-grounding-17-USAF-combat-air-squadrons]Reduced flying hours forces grounding of 17 USAF combat air squadrons | Air Force Times | airforcetimes.com[/url]

And mentioning some Australian newspaper as a source creates neagative credibility AFAIC.

Re: North Korea: Threat or Blackmailer?
 

To correct myself the specific unit that was in SK is due back, but we still have operational F22's:

(from your article)

F-22

94th Fighter Squadron — Grounded April 9 - [[I]this was the unit in SK[/I]]

27th Fighter Squadron — Basic mission capable through September

3rd Fighter Wing — Two squadrons combat mission ready through September

15th Wing — One squadron combat mission ready through September

49th Wing — One squadron combat mission ready through September

Re: North Korea: Threat or Blackmailer?
 

[quote=NC_Skins;1002765][url=http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/wp/2013/04/09/in-sign-of-chinese-frustration-with-north-korea-daily-show-clip-mocking-kim-racks-up-2-8-million-chinese-views/]In sign of Chinese frustration with North Korea, ‘Daily Show’ clip mocking Kim racks up 2.8 million Chinese views[/url]


:rofl:

Jon Stewart wins again.[/quote]

LOL, i'll have to watch that clip when i go home. Some interesting comments from the linked WP article:

[quote]It is true that the North Korean military is very big, one of the world’s largest standing armies: 1.1 million troops! 4,200 tanks! 820 fighter jets!... Even the military’s size and political backing, though, can’t make up for North Korea’s isolation and impoverishment. Most of those fighter jets, for example, will never take off because the regime can’t afford enough fuel to fill them up. Even if they could somehow procure enough jet fuel, the fighters “would have been shot out of the sky in the first few hours of a conflict,” Dartmouth professor and North Korea-watcher Jennifer Lind told NPR recently. The tanks, likewise, are old and inferior.[/quote]

Re: North Korea: Threat or Blackmailer?
 

[quote=Alvin Walton;1002796]The US Air Force says otherwise.

[I]The grounding includes F-22s from the 1st Fighter Wing's 94th Fighter Squadron at Joint Base Langley-Eustis, Va.[COLOR="Red"] The squadron is returning[/COLOR] from a deployment to the Pacific where airmen participated in a high-profile exercise in South Korea.[/I]
[url=http://www.airforcetimes.com/article/20130408/NEWS/304080035/Reduced-flying-hours-forces-grounding-17-USAF-combat-air-squadrons]Reduced flying hours forces grounding of 17 USAF combat air squadrons | Air Force Times | airforcetimes.com[/url]

And mentioning some Australian newspaper as a source creates neagative credibility AFAIC.[/quote]
How does Australia create negative credibility? They are relatively neutral, shaded pro-US. Your open bias in all things military amazes me.

Re: North Korea: Threat or Blackmailer?
 

You dont provide a link and you just mentioned something about Australia....
Why not a credible American source?
And I'll reiterate that the above jpeg is a crap.
And yea....I'm going to be highly critical of anything anyone says about the military in this forum.
I am very much a civilian armchair general, no doubt.
However all things military have been my hobby most of my life.
With a couple tangible exceptions I have access to the same info all of you have.
The difference might be that I've been reading a ton of it for a long time.
As have my friends and family members.
So my bullshit alarm goes off very easily.

Re: North Korea: Threat or Blackmailer?
 

[quote=Alvin Walton;1002801]You dont provide a link and you just mentioned something about Australia....
Why not a credible American source?
And I'll reiterate that the above jpeg is a crap.
And yea....I'm going to be highly critical of anything anyone says about the military in this forum.
I am very much a civilian armchair general, no doubt.
However all things military have been my hobby most of my life.
With a couple tangible exceptions I have access to the same info all of you have.
The difference might be that I've been reading a ton of it for a long time.
As have my friends and family members.
So my bullshit alarm goes off very easily.[/quote]
My dad was a highly decorated AF officer, served in Vietnam, very proud of him. I was in Civil Air Patrol at Andrews for all of my teen life, 13 -22, was leader of a regional CAP drill team, conducted search and rescue sorties, served both as cadet commander, and on the senior executive staff. Served in the Army 5 years. I have been reading a ton my whole life too.
I am proud of our military generally, but also see us as a world policeman, and understand that there is another view of the US that sees our policies as overbearing and hypocritical.

What specifically do you dispute in the jpeg. The data is valid and accurate
the link for the whole story is [url=http://www.news.com.au/world-news/north-korea-gives-final-approval-for-nuclear-attack-on-united-states/story-fndir2ev-1226612136732]North Korea seen moving missile | News.com.au[/url] and I purposely used a non-US source, so that it would be LESS likely to be claimed to be biased.

edit: deleted one paragraph, probably to pejorative.