Re: How Low Can It Go?
 

Housing starts take surprising jump in Feb.
Wall Street closes strong; Dow up 179 points
hopefully the beginning of good things to come

Re: How Low Can It Go?
 

sorry, something up with the links

Re: How Low Can It Go?
 

The Dow had had a good 6 days. Perhaps we have seen the bottom. If so, congratulations to Matty, Jsarno, and Schneed for being the closest. However, I think we will wait a while longer to make sure.

Re: How Low Can It Go?
 

[quote=70Chip;537717]The Dow had had a good 6 days. Perhaps we have seen the bottom. If so, congratulations to Matty, Jsarno, and Schneed for being the closest. However, I think we will wait a while longer to make sure.[/quote]

On a bottom you should actually wait a year or so to see if it's a real bottom or not.

Re: How Low Can It Go?
 

It's b.s. rally, big boys playing big games. Nothing has changed really.

Re: How Low Can It Go?
 

yeah, citigroup gets good news, market goes up, short sellers come in to make their cash. repeat.

Re: How Low Can It Go?
 

Speaking of the shorts, here's a nice primer(I'm not a financial person so I find this sort of thing helpful):

[URL="http://vimeo.com/3609097"]The Uptick Rule on Vimeo[/URL]

[URL="http://vimeo.com/3019229"]Mark to market on Vimeo[/URL]

[url=http://vimeo.com/2606496]Quantitative easing on Vimeo[/url]

Re: How Low Can It Go?
 

A very close friend with a degree in finance who works in the energy markets, predicted this false bounce followed by a further drop. I'm sticking with my prediction.

Re: How Low Can It Go?
 

[url=http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/090318/fed_interest_rates.html]Fed to buy up to $300B long-term Treasury bonds: Financial News - Yahoo! Finance[/url]

Major news

Re: How Low Can It Go?
 

Dow soars nearly 500 points on banking plan
Existing-home sales post surprising 5% gain

Re: How Low Can It Go?
 

[quote=dmek25;539225]Dow soars nearly 500 points on banking plan
[B]Existing-home sales post surprising 5% gain[/B][/quote]

The bolded part to me wasn't all that surprising, mortgage rates have been SUPER low lately, spurring a whole bunch of refinances and bringing buyers out of the woodwork. But I guess it's a surprise to most when other things have been grabbing the headlines and keeping everyone's attention.

Re: How Low Can It Go?
 

[quote=Schneed10;539300]The bolded part to me wasn't all that surprising, mortgage rates have been SUPER low lately, spurring a whole bunch of refinances and bringing buyers out of the woodwork. But I guess it's a surprise to most when other things have been grabbing the headlines and keeping everyone's attention.[/quote]

All the tax incentives combined with the declined home values and low rates make it a great time to buy. Definitely not too surprising, but good news for sure.

Re: How Low Can It Go?
 

Existing-home sales leap in June
Dow tops 9,000 after home sales data
Ford reports surprise second-quarter profit
so, dd we bottom out?

Re: How Low Can It Go?
 

[quote=dmek25;569525]Existing-home sales leap in June
Dow tops 9,000 after home sales data
Ford reports surprise second-quarter profit
so, dd we bottom out?[/quote]
Short-term possibly, however I wouldn't hop back in the market just yet.

[URL]http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2009/07/23/new-jobless-claims-rise-despite-steady-decline-spring/?test=latestnews[/URL]

Bear market cycles
Nine years is short for a bear market as these cycles can last up to 14 years. When Napier wrote his book in 2005 he said we would need to see four things before a true market bottom emerged: a bond market crash, a recession, lower interest rates and a general price disturbance (inflation or deflation) leading to a final bottom in share prices.
Given that in the past four years we have only seen two out of these four factors – recession and low interest rates – at least two more things still have still to happen based on the historical precedents of the 1921, 1932, 1949 and 1982 stock market bottoms.
‘Equities will have to fall below fair value and the likely catalyst will be a bout of deflation or, more likely, inflation. There will have to be a bear market in bonds and a recession,’ concluded Napier.
‘Before the bear market is over, the DJIA is likely to decline by at least 60 per cent – perhaps something more than 80 per cent (given the current level of earnings and replacement value of assets.’
Hyperinflation scenario
That would take the Dow down to 2,800-5,600 points, sometime between 2009-2014, according to Napier. Recently the hyperinflationists like Dr Marc Faber and Jim Rogers have suggested that inflation is likely to come to the rescue of share prices and support the Dow in an economic recession.
Share prices would therefore be supported in nominal if not real value terms. Yet there is nothing from the experience of the 1970s to support this theory. You have to look at the Weimar Republic or Zimbabwe for a precedent.
It could be that the US economy deteriorates to such a degree but surely we would first see a re-run of the 1970s? And that would allow time for Napier’s bottom to be formed in US markets. Unless you think it is different this time, Napier will be right. History is always a good precedent.
And a final reason to believe the market has not seen the bottom yet: share trading volumes are far too high. You need to see a widespread aversion to share ownership before a real bottom can be called. People are still far too keen on equities.

An increase in prices during a primary trend bear market is called a [B]bear [URL="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rally_(stock_market)"][COLOR=#0000ff]market rally[/COLOR][/URL][/B]. A bear market rally is sometimes defined as an increase of 10% to 20%. Bear market rallies typically begin suddenly and are often short-lived. Notable bear market rallies occurred in the [URL="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dow_Jones_Industrial_Average"][COLOR=#0000ff]Dow Jones[/COLOR][/URL] index after the 1929 stock market crash leading down to the market bottom in 1932, and throughout the late 1960s and early 1970s. The [URL="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japan"][COLOR=#0000ff]Japanese[/COLOR][/URL] [URL="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nikkei_stock_average"][COLOR=#0000ff]Nikkei stock average[/COLOR][/URL] has been typified by a number of bear market rallies since the late 1980s while experiencing an overall long-term downward trend.

[URL]http://www.uschambermagazine.com/content/0907_econ[/URL]

[URL]http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124753066246235811.html[/URL]

Re: How Low Can It Go?
 

[quote=dmek25;569525]Existing-home sales leap in June
Dow tops 9,000 after home sales data
Ford reports surprise second-quarter profit
so, dd we bottom out?[/quote]

Yes, we did a while ago.

I expect we'll take another dip down as another wave of foreclosures hits the US in the next 12 months, but not below where we were back in the early part of this year.

We'll go down again, but then back up in 2010 as we pull out of the now-oncoming second wave of recession.

Re: How Low Can It Go?
 

If so, I for one will say that I am happy my prediction was wrong.

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. By March 9, 2009, the DJIA reached a closing low at 6,547.05 (after an intra-day low of 6,469.95[13] during the March 6 session), its lowest close since April 1997
if this holds, who was closest?

Re: How Low Can It Go?
 

[quote=dmek25;569545]. By March 9, 2009, the DJIA reached a closing low at 6,547.05 (after an intra-day low of 6,469.95[13] during the March 6 session), its lowest close since April 1997
if this holds, who was closest?[/quote]

A number of us said 6,000. Including me.

Of course jsarno also said it, so apparently the sun shines on every dog's ass.

jk jsarno

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I know my buddy who is a home appraiser has been very busy which is always a good sign and he says its about 50/50 with refinacing and home sales.

Re: How Low Can It Go?
 

[quote=firstdown;569548]I know my buddy who is a home appraiser has been very busy which is always a good sign and he says its about 50/50 with refinacing and home sales.[/quote]Talking to a friend who is a real estate agent, the market for >$ 300K homes in our area has almost returned to normal, + $ 300K is still very slow.

Re: How Low Can It Go?
 

Damn I wanted riots in the streets and Obama's head on a stick. For the record I said 6000 as well.

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since you cant reach it, ill pat you on the back :)

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[quote=Mattyk72;569552]Damn I wanted riots in the streets and Obama's head on a stick. For the record I said 6000 as well.[/quote]
Come on, he's only been in for 7 months, give him time - geez ;)

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[quote=Mattyk72;569552]Damn I wanted riots in the streets and Obama's head on a stick. For the record I said 6000 as well.[/quote]
Patience.........there is still time. The health care bill must still be haggled out.........

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[quote=Slingin Sammy 33;533349]The high income earners are so far outnumbered they have little to no chance to win at the ballot box.[/quote]

I think that's the way democracy is supposed to work.

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[quote=firstdown;534442]I just wished that ever American had to sit down at the end of the month and write out a check to the federal and state to pay their taxes. This way its not hidden in each paycheck and people had to actually write out the amount and withdraw it over and over again from their check book. Now the goverment has the employeer do their dirty work and most people have no clue what they pay in taxes. All they care about is how much of a refund will they get at the end of the year. If they had to actually pay these taxes those refund checks they receive would start to look kind of small. I love when someone making 60,000 grand a year gets all excited at getting back $500 to $1,200 like they hit the jack pot. When I hear someone like that I look at them and ask them how much they paid in taxes. They usually get this dumb look on their face and say "I don't know". So who here knows what they pay in taxes each year without looking at you taxes or pay stub?[/quote]

$20K federal and $400 state for 2008.

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[quote=GhettoDogAllStars;570311]I think that's the way democracy is supposed to work.[/quote]

James Madison would argue it isn't. His argument is that a federalist democracy, our basic founding structure, protects the minority from the "tyranny of the majority" at a national level. Basically a collection of mostly self-governing states would prevent a national majority from expropriating the minority since states rights would provide protection from such occurrences. Of course we long ago ceased actually having a true federalist structure (if we ever did) and more and more of our federalist principles seep away every day.

Re: How Low Can It Go?
 

[url=http://sbk.online.wsj.com/article/SB124870175008183715.html]New-Home Sales Jumped 11% in June From May - WSJ.com[/url]

good news

Re: How Low Can It Go?
 

[quote=Slingin Sammy 33;569551]Talking to a friend who is a real estate agent, the market for >$ 300K homes in our area has almost returned to normal, + $ 300K is still very slow.[/quote]


Gotcha, i think you meant less than $300k is getting better. Yeah, if you are over $300k it's very sluggish. It's still very sluggish under $300k but at least it's getting better. We're a long ways from being in a normal market but at least I think we've hit a bottom or we're at the bottom.

I'm a mortgage lender. It's been an extremely busy year w/ refi's and some purchases. It's seemed to have tapered off w/ increases in mortgage rates since the end of May.

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The DOW is back up to 10K. Praises be Lord Obama.

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[quote=saden1;608488]The DOW is back up to 10K. Praises be Lord Obama.[/quote]

Obama for General Manager/Head Coach!

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Wait, I thought Obama was the front runner for the Heisman?

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[quote=SmootSmack;608491]Obama for General Manager/Head Coach![/quote]
He's been working with our Cap dept

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[quote=Mattyk72;570323][URL="http://sbk.online.wsj.com/article/SB124870175008183715.html"]New-Home Sales Jumped 11% in June From May - WSJ.com[/URL]

good news[/quote]
Any clue on what pct were foreclosures?

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[quote=SmootSmack;608491]Obama for General Manager/Head Coach![/quote]

General manager of Arbys maybe.

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[quote=Mattyk72;570323][URL="http://sbk.online.wsj.com/article/SB124870175008183715.html"]New-Home Sales Jumped 11% in June From May - WSJ.com[/URL]

good news[/quote]

21% less then 2008. When you sell nothing one month then sell one the next month then you have sold 100% more but your still broke.

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Do you guys realize my post you are replying to was from like 3 months ago?

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[quote=Mattyk72;608663]Do you guys realize my post you are replying to was from like 3 months ago?[/quote]
reactionariasm