Re: Will Jason Campbell return?
 

[quote=Monksdown;557798]What's laughable is how my entire anaylsis was based on my carefull study of his statistics this morning. Which reveal quite clearly, as i stated, that he is making progress. But at such a ridiculously slow rate, that he could possibly throw 25 td's(reasonable) when he's 33 years old. He's been in the league 5 years brother. 5! He's halfway out of the league already. The numbers are there. I told you, at best, he's turning into a game manager. He'll never be in the pro bowl.

Get over it. Don't be so blindly supporting.[/quote]

Yeah, but that is not careful statistical analysis. That is carefully looking at statistics and then drawing an unreasonable conclusion. You basically conclude that based upon his previous statistics it is impossible that he can throw for more than two extra touchdowns a year every year for the next five years. That is completely random and is not "statistical" analysis. That is saying, A=B therefore C=D. There is no correlation between throwing for 10 (in 7 starts), 12 (in 13 starts), and 13 (in 16 starts) touchdowns per season. Hell, if you wanted to really better your argument you would say that his touchdown/game ratio has decreased every year so by the time he is 33 he will be throwing for 0 touchdowns (which would fit with your argument because you would say he'll be out of the league). I'm not even saying Campbell is a great QB, I am just saying you are making your argument by 1) coming to a conclusion, 2) cherry picking statistics, 3) arbitrarily assigning meaning to those statistics so that they fit with your conclusion. That is not an empirical argument.

Re: Will Jason Campbell return?
 

Hey guys, just take those JC jerseys and hang em in the closet. next yr they will be as useful as my ol Champ jersey i have in mine.

Re: Will Jason Campbell return?
 

^ Or my Arrington & Washington Jerseys...

Re: Will Jason Campbell return?
 

[quote=SC Skins Fan;557817]Yeah, but that is not careful statistical analysis. That is carefully looking at statistics and then drawing an unreasonable conclusion. You basically conclude that based upon his previous statistics it is impossible that he can throw for more than two extra touchdowns a year every year for the next five years. That is completely random and is not "statistical" analysis. That is saying, A=B therefore C=D. There is no correlation between throwing for 10 (in 7 starts), 12 (in 13 starts), and 13 (in 16 starts) touchdowns per season. Hell, if you wanted to really better your argument you would say that his touchdown/game ratio has decreased every year so by the time he is 33 he will be throwing for 0 touchdowns (which would fit with your argument because you would say he'll be out of the league). I'm not even saying Campbell is a great QB, I am just saying you are making your argument by 1) coming to a conclusion, 2) cherry picking statistics, 3) arbitrarily assigning meaning to those statistics so that they fit with your conclusion. That is not an empirical argument.[/quote]

I disagree with you obviously on the validity of the statistics i've pulled. Anyone can "cherry pick" statistics and make them reveal something that may not be there. Yes, i did use the statistics i chose to use. On the other side of that coin, anyone can tear them down by continuing to break down the figures ad nauseum.

Bottom line. Little steps don't equal big steps. I want big steps.

Re: Will Jason Campbell return?
 

[quote=DBUCHANON101;557805]i dont put alot in the 0 ints. its not like he was scoring 2-3 tds a game while doing it. just tells me he was playin not to lose[/quote]
do you put alot into the 6-2 record? because where i come from, that's the bottom line?

Re: Will Jason Campbell return?
 

[quote=DBUCHANON101;557815]Trent Green? wasnt he with Al Saunders when he was havin pro bowl seasons??
[B]Gannon was good because he was a true student of the game[/B], that guy could write the playbook for you. he put the time in.
and it wasnt hard for Johnson to win the SB with that BUC D. they scored like 21pts in that game vs the Raiders.[/quote]
so Campbell isn't putting the time in? that's a pretty ridiculous statement. and anyhoo, Gannon only had 2-3 good seasons. remember how god awful he was in his brief stay here? i cant believe im sticking up for Campbell. to me, this is the year he either does it, or ends up in arena football

Re: Will Jason Campbell return?
 

Ok, bottom line we missed the playoffs. JC started makin up for lost time with the picks he threw to end the season.

Re: Will Jason Campbell return?
 

[quote=Monksdown;557828]I disagree with you obviously on the validity of the statistics i've pulled. Anyone can "cherry pick" statistics and make them reveal something that may not be there. Yes, i did use the statistics i chose to use. On the other side of that coin, anyone can tear them down by continuing to break down the figures ad nauseum.

Bottom line. Little steps don't equal big steps. I want big steps.[/quote]

Fair enough. But this year is the one you want to look at for "big" progress. Second year in a system, second year with Zorn as QB coach, and hopefully will get at least limited production from the 2008 draft class. This year is the "make or break" year.

Plus, as I tried to show above, if you take your exact same metrics and apply them to everybody's favorite Super Bowl winning QB you get basically the same outcome. And if it is statistical "progress" you are looking for then you don't get that with Roethlisberger's first three seasons either. He didn't make a "big jump" statistically until year four and then dropped back down (regressed to the mean?) last year.

Re: Will Jason Campbell return?
 

[quote=irish;557773]These numbers are nice but the only thing that really matters is that one QB lead his team to a SB win while the other hasnt won anything in his 5 years in the league.[/quote]Last I checked, football was a team sport. That D in Pitt had a lot more to do with them winning the SB than Big Ben.

Re: Will Jason Campbell return?
 

[quote=SC Skins Fan;557837]Fair enough. But this year is the one you want to look at for "big" progress. Second year in a system, second year with Zorn as QB coach, [B]and hopefully will get at least limited production from the 2008 draft class. This year is the "make or break" year.[/B]

Plus, as I tried to show above, if you take your exact same metrics and apply them to everybody's favorite Super Bowl winning QB you get basically the same outcome. And if it is statistical "progress" you are looking for then you don't get that with Roethlisberger's first three seasons either. He didn't make a "big jump" statistically until year four and then dropped back down (regressed to the mean?) last year.[/quote]

That's the part i'm worried about. Quarterbacks make WR's better, and the offensive line makes a QB better. So my chain of logic is this. Does Derrick Dockery solve our OL issues from last year(one guy goes down and we don't have adequate depth)?

Are we hinging Jason's success on his abilities, or the progress of our often injured 2nd round draft class of last year.

I think QB's that make minimal progress every year need substantial help from the cast around them. And i don't see that improvement on offense. Therefore, i can't predict success.

Re: Will Jason Campbell return?
 

That D in Pitt had a lot more to do with them winning the SB than Big Ben.

The D scored the winning TD??? The D got them there. and they played well most of the game but AZ scored the go ahead td late and Ben led his team down the field for the win.

Re: Will Jason Campbell return?
 

Hey Monksdown and DBuchanon101, I'm interested in hearing your take on this:
What would you call a QB going into his third full season as a starter with career numbers of a completion percentage below 60%, right around 200 YPG, 28 TD and 31 INT, passer rating in the low-mid 70's and a winning percentage below .500?

Re: Will Jason Campbell return?
 

[quote=DBUCHANON101;557848]That D in Pitt had a lot more to do with them winning the SB than Big Ben.

The D scored the winning TD??? The D got them there. and they played well most of the game but AZ scored the go ahead td late and Ben led his team down the field for the win.[/quote]Obviously Ben threw the winning TD pass, but the D put 7 on the board and was the strength of that team throughout the season and playoffs. Those that make the claim that Ben "carried" or "led" the Steelers to the SB win are typical fans who over-emphasize the QB, when the team wins all the credit goes to the QB, when they lose it's the QB's fault.

Re: Will Jason Campbell return?
 

its the league we play in.. its all on the QB

the pats D slowed the greatest show on turf. Adam V kicked the winning fg and all the cred goes to Brady.

Re: Will Jason Campbell return?
 

[quote=Paintrain;557854]Hey Monksdown and DBuchanon101, I'm interested in hearing your take on this:
What would you call a QB going into his third full season as a starter with career numbers of a completion percentage below 60%, right around 200 YPG, 28 TD and 31 INT, passer rating in the low-mid 70's and a winning percentage below .500?[/quote]

Someone with deceptively poor statistics at the beginning of their career that turned out to be a stud???

Re: Will Jason Campbell return?
 

[quote=Monksdown;557846]That's the part i'm worried about. Quarterbacks make WR's better, and the offensive line makes a QB better. So my chain of logic is this. Does Derrick Dockery solve our OL issues from last year(one guy goes down and we don't have adequate depth)?

Are we hinging Jason's success on his abilities, or the progress of our often injured 2nd round draft class of last year.

I think QB's that make minimal progress every year need substantial help from the cast around them. And i don't see that improvement on offense. Therefore, i can't predict success.[/quote]

My solution does not make for good discussion board material, but my argument would be that you have to wait for this year to make a real judgment one way or the other. And the thing is, you really have nothing really to lose. If Campbell fails then his contract is up and you let him walk. If he succeeds you resign him (and if it is an uncapped year he is an RFA anyway). That is why all the trade talk with Cutler and Sanchez made no sense, except for the fact that DS thinks this team is a perennial Super Bowl contender and can win "right now." The rest of us know a little bit better and realize there are substantial potential deficiencies with this team, most notably age and depth (another reason it made no sense to execute a big time trade for a QB).

The major problem with Campbell at this point, and what most detractors are circling around with their criticism of him, is his lack of willingness to take chances with his throws. The physical tools are there, he can make the throws, he is actually an accurate passer (and has improved each year), so the question becomes whether the tentative part of his game is correctable? That is what we have to find out this year. Same system, so he should have greater confidence. If he simply lacks the athletic arrogance (which you can see in an extreme form with Cutler, and is what separates Roethisberger from Campbell despite the statistical comparability) to take some chances then he does have a limited ceiling. If he can become more agressive then he can be successful. So that is what we have to find out in 2009 ... and we do so with very little risk.

Re: Will Jason Campbell return?
 

[quote=Monksdown;557859]Someone with deceptively poor statistics at the beginning of their career that turned out to be a stud???[/quote]

How are they 'deceptively poor' stats? Are they poor or not? At that point in his career how would you classify him? If he were the QB of your team what would you be advocating to be done with him? More patience, trade, outright release?

Re: Will Jason Campbell return?
 

[quote=DBUCHANON101;557858]its the league we play in.. its all on the QB

the pats D slowed the greatest show on turf. Adam V kicked the winning fg and all the cred goes to Brady.[/quote]That's the problem with typical fans, they place all the blame on the QB. That ain't how football works. True, a Brady/Manning type can take over a game, but he still needs protection and receivers who can make plays. Manning struggled early last year when his OL struggled, Brady struggled in the SB against the Giants becuase his OL was getting handled.

Campbell struggled in the 2nd half last year because of poor OL play and some very good D's we faced, not becuase he just magically started to suck. He's gotten better every year and his QB rating shows that.

I can't wait until mid-season to call you guys out, of course just like early last season all the JC haters came out after the Giants game and then disappeared until he struggled later in the season.

Re: Will Jason Campbell return?
 

Of course they are poor. And this is where you name drop some big stud on me. Some anomaly amongst the 100's of other qb's with numbers like that, that never succeeded. So go ahead, i'll play along.

Yes, those numbers are terrible. I'd move the quarterback out.

Re: Will Jason Campbell return?
 

[quote=Slingin Sammy 33;557876]That's the problem with typical fans, they place all the blame on the QB. That ain't how football works. True, a Brady/Manning type can take over a game, but he still needs protection and receivers who can make plays. Manning struggled early last year when his OL struggled, Brady struggled in the SB against the Giants becuase his OL was getting handled.

Campbell struggled in the 2nd half last year because of poor OL play and some very good D's we faced, not becuase he just magically started to suck. He's gotten better every year and his QB rating shows that.

I can't wait until mid-season to call you guys out, of course[B] just like early last season all the JC haters came out after the Giants game and then disappeared until he struggled later in the season[/B].[/quote]

:laughing2 Ain't that the truth. Kinda like Cowgirl fans who talk a lot of crap before the season, and then once we kick their ass, they disappear.

Re: Will Jason Campbell return?
 

Don't misunderstand our angle. I think we all [I]want[/I] him to do well. We just don't feel based on the numbers we have on him, and on our limited ability to analyze his skills, that he's going to take a huge step forward this year.

That is honestly how i feel. And i can back it up with 36 starts, just over 2 years of hard numbers. Granted, i probably put too much stock in cold hard touchdowns.

The argument that he's finally able to be in the same system 2 years in a row does hold [I]some[/I] water. But i can't quantify that potential success with any hard numbers. You could bring up the 'Matt Hasselback developed at this pace argument'. But that argument sucks too, there are too many variables for an apple to apple comparison.

Re: Will Jason Campbell return?
 

[quote=SC Skins Fan;557863]My solution does not make for good discussion board material, but my argument would be that you have to wait for this year to make a real judgment one way or the other. And the thing is, you really have nothing really to lose. If Campbell fails then his contract is up and you let him walk. If he succeeds you resign him (and if it is an uncapped year he is an RFA anyway). That is why all the trade talk with Cutler and Sanchez made no sense, except for the fact that DS thinks this team is a perennial Super Bowl contender and can win "right now." The rest of us know a little bit better and realize there are substantial potential deficiencies with this team, most notably age and depth (another reason it made no sense to execute a big time trade for a QB).

The major problem with Campbell at this point, and what most detractors are circling around with their criticism of him, is his lack of willingness to take chances with his throws. The physical tools are there, he can make the throws, he is actually an accurate passer (and has improved each year), so the question becomes whether the tentative part of his game is correctable? That is what we have to find out this year. Same system, so he should have greater confidence. If he simply lacks the athletic arrogance (which you can see in an extreme form with Cutler, and is what separates Roethisberger from Campbell despite the statistical comparability) to take some chances then he does have a limited ceiling. If he can become more agressive then he can be successful. So that is what we have to find out in 2009 ... and we do so with very little risk.[/quote]

I totally agree with your analysis. Which brings me back to a concern i voiced yesterday about his athletic arrogance(as you called it). I think that's just a part of who he is. He is cautious to a fault.

Re: Will Jason Campbell return?
 

[quote=Monksdown;557859]Someone with deceptively poor statistics at the beginning of their career that turned out to be a stud???[/quote]Eli Manning? If you want to call him a stud.

Re: Will Jason Campbell return?
 

[quote=DBUCHANON101;557858]its the league we play in.. its all on the QB

the pats D slowed the greatest show on turf. Adam V kicked the winning fg and all the cred goes to Brady.[/quote]Do you consider Snyder a good businessman? Why would a good businessman go out and spend 100 million dollars, 41 million guarenteed, on a player who doesn't matter because he's not a Quarterback. Seems like the gaffe of the century and [SIZE=4][B]you[/B][/SIZE] should be outraged!

Re: Will Jason Campbell return?
 

[quote=Paintrain;557866]How are they 'deceptively poor' stats? Are they poor or not? At that point in his career how would you classify him? If he were the QB of your team what would you be advocating to be done with him? More patience, trade, outright release?[/quote]Paintrain, what age and draft position is the player you speak of?

Re: Will Jason Campbell return?
 

[quote=GTripp0012;557906]Eli Manning? If you want to call him a stud.[/quote]


I don't really want to. But damn, that ring is shiny.

Re: Will Jason Campbell return?
 

Is their anyone on this board who honestly believes that if Peyton, Tom, or Ben changed systems as much as the Redskins have in the last 4-5 years, it wouldn't affect their play? Or more to the point, the teams play? Doe's anyone really believe they would win as much if they changed offensive systems every year? Let's not forget the QB is not the only one who has to learn a new system. The receiver we just signed, Roydell or whatever his name is, is pretty lost right now and he's not a rookie. He's just new to this system. JC has frustrated the hell out of me at times, but I'm waiting to pass judgement on him after he's been given a chance to completely learn and play in a system for more than 1 year. To say changing systems is just an excuse is pure BS and shows a lack of football related knowledge IMO. If Jason doesn't progress this year or continues to make the same mistakes, then he needs to go. But to completely dismiss constantly changing offensive systems as a variable in a QB's progression or for a teams lack of offensive output is crazy.

Re: Will Jason Campbell return?
 

[quote=Monksdown;557887]Don't misunderstand our angle. I think we all [I]want[/I] him to do well. We just don't feel based on the numbers we have on him, and on our limited ability to analyze his skills, that he's going to take a huge step forward this year. [/quote]What if I told you that he already took that huge step forward last year (in my opinion), sometime between weeks 2-5, or possibly weeks 11-13, but that it was masked by the fact that every one else on offense was so terrible.

Then, as my logic follows, if the offense around Campbell is just a little less horriffic, he should pick up right where he left off, at a pro bowl level.

Here's a tip, if you have to point to a single (one) season as evidence that a player can't get it done, you're likely seeing too many other variables to know. You see his improvements as "super-slow", in the data, but the rest of us just see them as "there," and need more information to see if a breakout is coming/has already come.

Re: Will Jason Campbell return?
 

[quote=53Fan;557916]Is their anyone on this board who honestly believes that if Peyton, Tom, or Ben changed systems as much as the Redskins have in the last 4-5 years, it wouldn't affect their play? Or more to the point, the teams play? Doe's anyone really believe they would win as much if they changed offensive systems every year? Let's not forget the QB is not the only one who has to learn a new system. The receiver we just signed, Roydell or whatever his name is, is pretty lost right now and he's not a rookie. He's just new to this system. JC has frustrated the hell out of me at times, but I'm waiting to pass judgement on him after he's been given a chance to completely learn and play in a system for more than 1 year. To say changing systems is just an excuse is pure BS and shows a lack of football related knowledge IMO. If Jason doesn't progress this year or continues to make the same mistakes, then he needs to go. [B]But to completely dismiss constantly changing offensive systems as a variable[/B] in a QB's progression or for a teams lack of offensive output is crazy.[/quote]

It's not being completely dismissive. And it is a variable in a QB's development. Just not alone a very good excuse for not leaping forward. Your final analysis is accurate though...should he not perform, goodbye.

Re: Will Jason Campbell return?
 

Uh oh, Tripps getting arrogant again ;)

Re: Will Jason Campbell return?
 

[quote=GTripp0012;557917]What if I told you that he already took that huge step forward last year (in my opinion), sometime between weeks 2-5, or possibly weeks 11-13, but that it was masked by the fact that every one else on offense was so terrible.

Then, as my logic follows, if the offense around Campbell is just a little less horriffic, he should pick up right where he left off, at a pro bowl level.

Here's a tip, if you have to point to a [B]single (one) season[/B] as evidence that a player can't get it done, you're likely seeing too many other variables to know. You see his improvements as "super-slow", in the data, but the rest of us just see them as "there," and need more information to see if a breakout is coming/has already come.[/quote]

My analysis earlier was based on 36 games started.

Re: Will Jason Campbell return?
 

[quote=Monksdown;557910]I don't really want to. But damn, that ring is shiny.[/quote]I don't actually know that it's Manning, but that's who I thought of when I saw Paintrain's numbers.

I don't know if I like a E. Manning example because he's probably not as good a QB as Campbell, just playing the odds. His play was a big reason why the Giants won the SB two years ago. But whose to say that if our defense could have gotten Jason into the playoffs at 10-6 by not imploding down the stretch, and staying in the top quadrant of defenses, he wouldn't have surprised everyone and led Zorn to a super bowl in his first year as HC?

I mean, yeah, pie in the sky scenario. But no less realistic than calling a Giants championship in 2007 or a Cardinals championship this year (which didn't happen, but you know, no fault to the QB position).

Re: Will Jason Campbell return?
 

[quote=GTripp0012;557925]I don't actually know that it's Manning, but that's who I thought of when I saw Paintrain's numbers.

I don't know if I like a E. Manning example because he's probably not as good a QB as Campbell, just playing the odds. His play was a big reason why the Giants won the SB two years ago. But whose to say that if our defense could have gotten Jason into the playoffs at 10-6 by not imploding down the stretch, and staying in the top quadrant of defenses, he wouldn't have surprised everyone and led Zorn to a super bowl in his first year as HC?

I mean, yeah, pie in the sky scenario. But no less realistic than calling a Giants championship in 2007 or a Cardinals championship this year (which didn't happen, but you know, no fault to the QB position).[/quote]


G-What imploded last year that led to that decrease in projection? The O-line right? So how is Derrick Dockery alone going to fix that? And in turn, if the Oline flounders again due to injury(entirely possible), then Jason's gone. Possibly to flourish somewhere else. I don't think there's another way to look at it. Right or wrong.

Re: Will Jason Campbell return?
 

[quote=Monksdown;557922]My analysis earlier was based on 36 games started.[/quote]But then you aren't seeing an upwards trend, or any trend at all. That would just be a weighted average of a QBs developmental portion of his career.

I hear people using the term make-or-break around Campbell this year. To an extent, I agree. Right now, he still carries the "young prospect" label, as the first four years of anyones career tend to be the developmental stage. But he's 27. So at the end of this year, he's going to turn 28, and he'll either have "franchise Quarterback", or "journeyman".

The statistics suggest that he'll be a franchise QB. But that's probability, not certainty. The question if he doesn't fulfill his promise this year is not whether we keep him or not, that's pretty irrelevant. It's why he was unable to live up to promise, i.e. what do we need to do to make sure the next surefire prospect does not fail. It could be a team thing, or it could be structural-organizational.

Re: Will Jason Campbell return?
 

I don't think 'franchise' quarterbacks throw as few td's as Jason is trending towards continuing to do. He's clearly not a consistent scoring threat for us. That consistency is based on the limited data we've got. If he makes it as a franchise qb, it wont be with the 'skins.

Re: Will Jason Campbell return?
 

[quote=Monksdown;557930]I don't think 'franchise' quarterbacks throw as few td's as Jason is trending towards continuing to do. He's clearly not a consistent scoring threat for us. That consistency is based on the limited data we've got. If he makes it as a franchise qb, it wont be with the 'skins.[/quote]

You don't need my help but I'll take your side on this. Totally agree.

Re: Will Jason Campbell return?
 

[quote=Monksdown;557927]G-What imploded last year that led to that decrease in projection? The O-line right? So how is Derrick Dockery alone going to fix that? And in turn, if the Oline flounders again due to injury(entirely possible), then Jason's gone. Possibly to flourish somewhere else. I don't think there's another way to look at it. Right or wrong.[/quote]If Samuels doesn't get injured, Campbell's December looks very very different.

But it wasn't just the OLine. You could see it in Zorn's gameplanning. Campbell and Portis were the only guys you could trust to run any play right. Moss had no big play ability, ARE dropped off the face of the planet, Thomas and Kelly were useless, Yoder played himself off the field, even Sellers made two huge game changing mistakes in that month. Cooley fumbled a game away. And THEN the protection from not only the OL, but the usually dependable Portis was crap.

So yeah, there was a lot of heat on Zorn because it was an entire offensive breakdown. And Campbell showed a lot of poise in altering his game to pick up a lot of the offensive slack. Became a leader, if you want to use those terms. Leaders tend to arise out of adverse situations, not because things are going well.

And he played all 16 games. Which is very underrated, IMO. Because after the Cincinnati loss, there was nothing left to gain from leaving him out there behind that line. But not only did he not break down, he made some week to week improvements, and almost won the SF game singlehandedly.

So I like Campbell for that, and I like Campbell for his composure this offseason. I don't know if he will turn into a great quarterback, but I would suggest if he doesn't, we find out why he didn't, and fix it fast.

Re: Will Jason Campbell return?
 

[quote=GTripp0012;557909]Paintrain, what age and draft position is the player you speak of?[/quote]
He was 26 at the time and is a QB. EDIT-And is not Eli Manning.

Re: Will Jason Campbell return?
 

[quote=Monksdown;557930]I don't think 'franchise' quarterbacks throw as few td's as Jason is trending towards continuing to do. He's clearly not a consistent scoring threat for us. That consistency is based on the limited data we've got. If he makes it as a franchise qb, it wont be with the 'skins.[/quote]Well, we also don't have any touchdown scorers on the offense that would make you think, why are their numbers suffering? Cooley had a 1 TD year last year, so if he doesn't rebound, I might get worried. But Moss was never a big TD guy, neither was ARE. The fact that the big scorer on this team is the RB explains why Campbell probably shouldn't ever be graded by his TD totals.

This is a different point if his INT rate rises to meet his TD rate. At a 1:1 TD/INT rate, Campbell is ineffective. But at 5:2 or 3:1, he's a very effective, borderline pro-bowler. That's what we should look for this year.

The pro bowl voters do tend to get caught up in the big TD numbers, which is why I think if the team can replace those 35+ TD seasons with wins, Campbell will get his dues.

Re: Will Jason Campbell return?
 

[quote=Paintrain;557934]He was 26 at the time and is a QB. EDIT-And is not Eli Manning.[/quote]Brees?