Re: Redskins trade for Jason Taylor (updated)
 

[quote=hail_2_da_skins;458115]Picking up Jason Taylor says nothing about Demetric Evans ability to play. When you lose two players for the season at the same position, you have to act quickly and fill those roster spots. It just so happen that a former All-Pro is available. It makes sense to me to upgrade at that position. I would say that Jason Taylor is an upgrade over a healthy Phillips McDaniel. Demetric Evans still has a big role on this team and will have plenty of opportunities to contribute. The combination of Taylor and Carter will allow the Redskins to get a push from both ends in their base defense, something they didn't get in the past few seasons. They always had to go to a pass rushing specialist in obvious passing situations.[/quote]Jason Taylor is unquestionably an upgrade of Daniels.

I think it's totally fallacious to defend the ability to give up a 2nd round pick for a 34 year old defensive player as "opportunity".

If we had done this trade in May, well before we knew about Daniels' and Buzbee's fates, would you have supported it? I think there would have been a lot more debate over whether it was smart or not if we didn't perceive a giant hole on the DL.

Either way, the situations are identical. Taylor is the LDE now, and we're down a second round pick.

Re: Redskins trade for Jason Taylor (updated)
 

[quote=jdlea;458133]Brodie Croyle came in for Damon Huard. Andrew Walter came in for the Raiders a couple of years ago. Cedric Benson came in after the Thomas Jones trade. Gus Frerotte came in for Marc Bulger. Josh Beck came in for Cleo Lemon. Need I go on?

I'm not saying Evans couldn't have done anything, but let's not get carried away and act like every back up who stepped into a starting role became an All-Pro.[/quote]

I know it goes both ways. But Evans has been here for some time now. He's been a solid player here for 4-5 years? He is capable of starting. We're not talking about a camp scrub. Giving up a 2nd round pick for a guy that's probably going to be here for one year when we've got age all over the place is just stupid. If we were a Super Bowl conteding type of team then I'd be OK with it. But let's be honest. We're not that type of team right now.

Re: Redskins trade for Jason Taylor (updated)
 

[QUOTE=Slingin Sammy 33;458136]Jim Zorn: Vinny, we just lost Daniels for the year and Buzbee is gone too. What do we do? We need a decision pretty quickly on the Jason Taylor thing because as other injuries pile up across the league the Fins will have other offers.

Vinny: Jim, if I get JT, can you tell me we'll make the playoffs? If you tell me we'll definitely make the playoffs, then OK. If not, then this may be a bad idea.

Jim Zorn: ?????

Nothing like hedging your bets. Unfortunately VC needs to make the best decision based on the information at hand and the current situation. If he has JT's word that he'll play at least two more seasons, there is no reason not to make this happen, based on our situation at DE.[/QUOTE]

Exactly. There is no guarantee, I think the Patriots in the Super Bowl were as close to a guarantee as I've ever seen in the NFL and even they lost. Plus, how will Zorn know if we're going to make the playoffs before they even finish the first day of training camp? Heck, we didn't even know we were going to make the playoffs last year until AFTER we beat Dallas in the last game of the year.

Re: Redskins trade for Jason Taylor (updated)
 

[quote=Slingin Sammy 33;458136]Jim Zorn: Vinny, we just lost Daniels for the year and Buzbee is gone too. What do we do? We need a decision pretty quickly on the Jason Taylor thing because as other injuries pile up across the league the Fins will have other offers.

Vinny: Jim, if I get JT, can you tell me we'll make the playoffs? If you tell me we'll definitely make the playoffs, then OK. If not, then this may be a bad idea.

Jim Zorn: ?????

Nothing like hedging your bets. Unfortunately VC needs to make the best decision based on the information at hand and the current situation. If he has JT's word that he'll play at least two more seasons, there is no reason not to make this happen, based on our situation at DE.[/quote]Haha. Nice.

Though, I think that's Vinny's call whether or not Jason Taylor gets us back over the top. Realistically, I think it gets us closer, but closer doesn't count.

Thing is, with Jason Campbell right on the edge of maturity, I think we could do some real damage in the playoffs if we can make it. We might be good enough to catch Dallas now, but we're still going to need some injury luck to catch Philly and/or the Giants (or Eli could implode again).

There's nothing wrong with trying to get as close to your competition as possible I suppose. Either way, I'm going to avoid grading this trade with hindsight. You're right, even though getting into the playoffs may justify this deal in my mind, I can't act like I would have done the same thing, even if it ends up working.

Re: Redskins trade for Jason Taylor (updated)
 

[quote=PSUSkinsFan21;458134]Interesting tidbit: Taylor has more career interceptions and passes defensed than Carlos Rogers. In fact, since Rogers came into the league (i.e. over the last three years), he only has 4 more passes defensed and one more interception than Taylor. I find that interesting for a DE.[/quote]

Is this really all that surprising?? Rogers sucks...

Re: Redskins trade for Jason Taylor (updated)
 

I wasn't against making a move for Taylor a few months ago. But in the end it's the offense I'm looking at as the real key to the season. If the offense clicks I see no reason why this team couldn't be a real threat in the NFC. We have a solid line, some nice playmaking threats at WR, RB, and TE... now it's just up to Campbell to guide the ship. If Campbell breaks out we could be in for a very good year.

Re: Redskins trade for Jason Taylor (updated)
 

[quote=skinsfan69;458144]I know it goes both ways. But Evans has been here for some time now. He's been a solid player here for 4-5 years? He is capable of starting. We're not talking about a camp scrub. Giving up a 2nd round pick for a guy that's probably going to be here for one year when we've got age all over the place is just stupid. If we were a Super Bowl conteding type of team then I'd be OK with it. But let's be honest. We're not that type of team right now.[/quote]I agree fully.

Jason Taylor was/is a great player. But as he ages, the flaws in his game are only going to become more evident.

With that said, Jason Taylor's skill set (poor run defense, excellent speed/power rush combination) should age pretty well, so the Skins might have a multiple year solution on the DL if they can convince him that sticking around to win a championship is worth it.

At the end of the day, Jason Taylor now has the best shot to win the championship that he's had in the last 5 years. This is a great trade for Taylor.

Re: Redskins trade for Jason Taylor (updated)
 

[QUOTE=skinsfan69;458144]I know it goes both ways. But Evans has been here for some time now. He's been a solid player here for 4-5 years? He is capable of starting. We're not talking about a camp scrub. Giving up a 2nd round pick for a guy that's probably going to be here for one year when we've got age all over the place is just stupid. If we were a Super Bowl conteding type of team then I'd be OK with it. But let's be honest. We're not that type of team right now.[/QUOTE]

I don't know what I agree that Demetric will ever be a starter in the NFL. He's never had more than 26 tackles and 2.5 sacks in a season and that was in 04. I'm not saying he's not a fine spot player, I don't mind putting him in the rotation, but I don't think the guy should ever be counted on to start 16 games.

I didn't like the D Line [B]with[/B] Daniels. I feel like, in the short term, this deal makes the Skins better. However, I'm not saying that puts them over the top, but I'm not going to be shocked if by adding the leadership and ability of Taylor, you put this team into the playoffs with a shot at getting hot and making a run a al the NY Giants.

I think, if last season taught us anything, a pass rush can change an entire game.

All that said, that's a tall order for a first year head coach.

Re: Redskins trade for Jason Taylor (updated)
 

[quote=GTripp0012;458120]Well, the average production of a 2nd round pick tends to give a team between 2 and 3 wins over the life of his rookie contract, which is what I was referencing. A star in the making is obviously going to produce much more, and a bust will produce near nothing[/quote]
Where does this metric come from? I don't see how you can accurately predicit that a single 2nd round pick gives a team 2-3 wins over his rookie contract? Way too many variables to factor in. Maybe at QB, but it don't see how you could do this at any other position. This is not baseball or basketball. Football is the ultimate team sport and one player can't win games almost single-handed (outside of a Brady/Manning type QB or dominant pass rusher like LT or Reggie White).

Re: Redskins trade for Jason Taylor (updated)
 

[quote=Mattyk72;458148]I wasn't against making a move for Taylor a few months ago. But in the end it's the offense I'm looking at as the real key to the season. If the offense clicks I see no reason why this team couldn't be a real threat in the NFC. We have a solid line, some nice playmaking threats at WR, RB, and TE... now it's just up to Campbell to guide the ship. If Campbell breaks out we could be in for a very good year.[/quote]The defense looks to be solidly above average now. They won't be quite as good as last year I don't think, but we can live with above average performance.

The offense is all about Campbell and the guys blocking for him. If he posts numbers similar to last year (or worse than last year), we probably don't make the playoffs. If he improves, I really, really like our chances.

It's asking a lot for him to improve this season, especially early on. Someone is going to have to win those first few games for us, and I think Campbell gives us the best chance in September.

Re: Redskins trade for Jason Taylor (updated)
 

So if we did move Evans up to starter who would back him up then?

Re: Redskins trade for Jason Taylor (updated)
 

I know they had to make this move, but let's not forget what put them in this position in the first place...

This is what happens when you depend on 35 year-old guy season after season who has spent 13 years at the most violent position on the football field. All this crap about being a "great locker room leader" sure sounds great now, huh? Suppose this front office hadn't ignored the defensive end position at the upper end of the draft for the past, oh, ELEVEN years?

So what we've done is replace a 35 year-old guy with a 34 year-old guy who'd rather be making movies and they've lost a high draft pick in the process.

Wonderful.

Re: Redskins trade for Jason Taylor (updated)
 

[QUOTE=SmootSmack;458157]So if we did move Evans up to starter who would back him up then?[/QUOTE]

Cedric Wilson man, the DE equivalent of Anthony Mix and Robert McCune

Re: Redskins trade for Jason Taylor (updated)
 

[quote=Slingin Sammy 33;458153]Where does this metric come from? I don't see how you can accurately predicit that a single 2nd round pick gives a team 2-3 wins over his rookie contract? Way too many variables to factor in. Maybe at QB, but it don't see how you could do this at any other position. This is not baseball or basketball. Football is the ultimate team sport and one player can't win games almost single-handed (outside of a Brady/Manning type QB or dominant pass rusher like LT or Reggie White).[/quote]Well, the exact win total is based on some work I've been doing to convert value to team into a win estimate.

For example, if we consider Jon Kitna to be the standard for a starting QB, with most teams having better options, (I just picked a guy who's got a readily available skill set, and doesn't do too much to hurt his team), we can estimate that Tom Brady was worth about 5 wins more than Kitna-level last year alone. Essentially saying that the Patriots, with the same schedule, same team, but Jon Kitna at QB, would have been an 11-5 team.

The value metrics are readily available at places like [URL="http://www.footballoutsiders.com/index.php"]footballoutsiders.com[/URL], [URL="http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=561"]profootballreference.com's[/URL] blog, [URL="http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/insider/columns/story?columnist=joyner_kc&id=3470413&campaign=rsssrch&source=kc_joyner"]KC Joyner's articles[/URL] on ESPN.com, and [URL="http://www.bbnflstats.com/2008/07/why-chargers-defense-will-decline-in-08.html"]Brian Burke's Advanced Football Stats blog[/URL].

There's always going to be slight disagreement among the systems about certain players value, but generally these four sources paint me a pretty good picture of just how valuable a player is.

Anyway, I'm most concerned with how valuable a rookies' first 4 years in the league are for a few reasons: 1) it's a good indicator of how good he will be, and 2) that's how long in which his draft position will determine how much he exceeds his value by.

For a second rounder, in his 2nd-4th years in the league, we know that he's likely to be better than a replacement level player, and a key contributor on this team. Everything I've done says that a second round pick who doesn't bust out of the league, but also fails to become a superstar will be worth not quite a win per season on his rookie deal.

So I'm estimating over a large sample when I say the average second rounder is worth 2-3 wins over his rookie deal. About a third of the second round selections will be less than that, and a third will be more than that. But that's the [B]expectation [/B]for a second round selection, and expectation is really the only thing we are dealing with here.

Re: Redskins trade for Jason Taylor (updated)
 

By the same estimations, Derek Anderson was worth a single win over the Kitna-line in 2007.

I've got the day off today so I'm trying to do some work to see if I can look at the differences between Daniels' value and Taylor's value and see just how much better the Redskins are now than they we're before camp yesterday.

Re: Redskins trade for Jason Taylor (updated)
 

[quote=SmootSmack;458157]So if we did move Evans up to starter who would back him up then?[/quote]

James, Jackson, Wilson and pick up someone off the waiver wire.

Re: Redskins trade for Jason Taylor (updated)
 

[QUOTE=jdlea;458159]Cedric Wilson man, the DE equivalent of Anthony Mix and Robert McCune[/QUOTE]

You mean Chris Wilson, right?

Re: Redskins trade for Jason Taylor (updated)
 

[quote=SKINSnCANES;458105]Jason Taylor will make everyone around him better. We had no one worth double teaming on our line. Carter stepped up at the end of the year and may have started to get double teamed. If anything now jason taylor will continue to be double teamed and open up opportunities for the other 3 linemen to get to the QB.

Ive always thought Andre Carter was in the mold of Jason Taylor, but hadnt learned all the technique yet. Well now he will learn first hand. No one heard of Adowale Ogunleye (sp) and Taylor turned him into a sack machine by takign the double teams to his side.

Im sooo happy we finally have a pass rush with our front four. We need that pressure even more so being thin at corner.[/quote]

YES, you have it. He will make everybody around him better!!! As you say, he will create oppurtunities for the down lineman..........and for Carter.
JT is a good guy. Monster on the field, AND in the locker room as well . Pretty good "fox-trot" as well
Whatever he has left in the tank, we WILL get. That is who he is. My only regret is.......we do not play the Fins this season
nice work Vinny!!!!!!!!

Re: Redskins trade for Jason Taylor (updated)
 

[quote=SmootSmack;458157]So if we did move Evans up to starter who would back him up then?[/quote]James/Wilson.

I do think we needed to add something at DE after Buzbee also got hurt. We could have waited for Philadelphia to shave one DE off their roster, lord knows they have way too many for their own good. Maybe we would have gotten Jerome McDougal at a bargain basement price.

It's moot now, and we'll never know for sure, but I really think we would have been fine.

Re: Redskins trade for Jason Taylor (updated)
 

[QUOTE=Sheriff Gonna Getcha;458168]You mean Chris Wilson, right?[/QUOTE]

Yeah, my bad, I thought the first name was wrong, but was way too lazy to go look it up...lol

Re: Redskins trade for Jason Taylor (updated)
 

[QUOTE=Beemnseven;458158]I know they had to make this move, but let's not forget what put them in this position in the first place...

This is what happens when you depend on 35 year-old guy season after season who has spent 13 years at the most violent position on the football field. All this crap about being a "great locker room leader" sure sounds great now, huh? Suppose this front office hadn't ignored the defensive end position at the upper end of the draft for the past, oh, ELEVEN years?

[B]So what we've done is replace a 35 year-old guy with a 34 year-old guy who'd rather be making movies and they've lost a high draft pick in the process.[/B]
Wonderful.[/QUOTE]

Though I can see your point....2 major factors...Jason Taylor is WAY better than Daniels...count the probowls AND we had no other legitimate option.

Re: Redskins trade for Jason Taylor (updated)
 

[QUOTE=skinsfan69;458164]James, Jackson, Wilson and pick up someone off the waiver wire.[/QUOTE]

Are you out of your mind?
James in injured, Jackson is a nobody, Wilson is strictly a pass specialist.
We needed a valid starter, options were limited to zero.

I'm not thrilled about giving up a 2 but we really didn't have any other options rather than hoping one of our guys (or a FA) suddenly got 2-3 times more effective overnight

Re: Redskins trade for Jason Taylor (updated)
 

[QUOTE=Beemnseven;458158]I know they had to make this move, but let's not forget what put them in this position in the first place...

This is what happens when you depend on 35 year-old guy season after season who has spent 13 years at the most violent position on the football field. All this crap about being a "great locker room leader" sure sounds great now, huh? Suppose this front office hadn't ignored the defensive end position at the upper end of the draft for the past, oh, ELEVEN years?

So what we've done is replace a 35 year-old guy with a 34 year-old guy who'd rather be making movies and they've lost a high draft pick in the process.

Wonderful.[/QUOTE]

I see your points. But it's not like Daniels has been deteriorating over the years. He's missed one game in the last three years. It's not unreasonable to think he had at least a year left. Plus, while some want to dismiss him as a practice squad scrub, the Redskins were counting on Buzbee to take a major step this year at least from a depth standpoint.

On a somewhat related note, will be interesting to see how much PT Lorenzo Alexander gets against the run on the d-line now.

Re: Redskins trade for Jason Taylor (updated)
 

I saw this news, and my eyes nearly popped out of my head.

Good work, front office.

Re: Redskins trade for Jason Taylor (updated)
 

[quote=GTripp0012;458160]For example, if we consider Jon Kitna to be the standard for a starting QB, with most teams having better options, (I just picked a guy who's got a readily available skill set, and doesn't do too much to hurt his team), we can estimate that Tom Brady was worth about 5 wins more than Kitna-level last year alone. Essentially saying that the Patriots, with the same schedule, same team, but Jon Kitna at QB, would have been an 11-5 team.

The value metrics are readily available at places like [URL="http://www.footballoutsiders.com/index.php"]footballoutsiders.com[/URL], [URL="http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=561"]profootballreference.com's[/URL] blog, [URL="http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/insider/columns/story?columnist=joyner_kc&id=3470413&campaign=rsssrch&source=kc_joyner"]KC Joyner's articles[/URL] on ESPN.com, and [URL="http://www.bbnflstats.com/2008/07/why-chargers-defense-will-decline-in-08.html"]Brian Burke's Advanced Football Stats blog[/URL].

There's always going to be slight disagreement among the systems about certain players value, but generally these four sources paint me a pretty good picture of just how valuable a player is.

Anyway, I'm most concerned with how valuable a rookies' first 4 years in the league are for a few reasons: 1) it's a good indicator of how good he will be, and 2) that's how long in which his draft position will determine how much he exceeds his value by.

For a second rounder, in his 2nd-4th years in the league, we know that he's likely to be better than a replacement level player, and a key contributor on this team. Everything I've done says that a second round pick who doesn't bust out of the league, but also fails to become a superstar will be worth not quite a win per season on his rookie deal.

So I'm estimating over a large sample when I say the average second rounder is worth 2-3 wins over his rookie deal. About a third of the second round selections will be less than that, and a third will be more than that. But that's the [B]expectation [/B]for a second round selection, and expectation is really the only thing we are dealing with here.[/quote]
IMO these numbers are pretty much a wild approximation or SWAG and not useful at all, but you're quoting them like they're well accepted throughout the media and sports world. The QB rating formula is less complicated and tells you a lot more than this stuff. These ratings give little account to the DL & OL because most of what they do doesn't show on stats.

Stats are important, but the interpretations and extrapolations made from these stats tells a FO guy, GM, or coach next to nothing that they don't already know. T. Brady is better than Kitna....my 15 yr. old could tell you that. Hell, the computer programmers at EA know that. How do you account for a QB or WR who plays on a team with a bad OL, how about a good CB with a bad DL. Would Archie Manning have been a Peyton Manning if he wasn't on bad teams? Who knows? Stats are important but IMO these are taking the interpretation too far.

Bottom line is; we gave up the equivalent of probably the # 50 overall pick in the draft, under duress, for a Pro Bowl caliber player at DE. If JT is productive for two seasons, not only is he helping the pass defense, but he's given us some flexibilty in when/how we address needs at CB, DE, DT and LB in the 2009 & 2010 off-seasons.

Re: Redskins trade for Jason Taylor (updated)
 

[quote=GTripp0012;458160]Well, the exact win total is based on some work I've been doing to convert value to team into a win estimate.

For example, if we consider Jon Kitna to be the standard for a starting QB, with most teams having better options, (I just picked a guy who's got a readily available skill set, and doesn't do too much to hurt his team), we can estimate that Tom Brady was worth about 5 wins more than Kitna-level last year alone. Essentially saying that the Patriots, with the same schedule, same team, but Jon Kitna at QB, would have been an 11-5 team.

The value metrics are readily available at places like [URL="http://www.footballoutsiders.com/index.php"]footballoutsiders.com[/URL], [URL="http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=561"]profootballreference.com's[/URL] blog, [URL="http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/insider/columns/story?columnist=joyner_kc&id=3470413&campaign=rsssrch&source=kc_joyner"]KC Joyner's articles[/URL] on ESPN.com, and [URL="http://www.bbnflstats.com/2008/07/why-chargers-defense-will-decline-in-08.html"]Brian Burke's Advanced Football Stats blog[/URL].

There's always going to be slight disagreement among the systems about certain players value, but generally these four sources paint me a pretty good picture of just how valuable a player is.

Anyway, I'm most concerned with how valuable a rookies' first 4 years in the league are for a few reasons: 1) it's a good indicator of how good he will be, and 2) that's how long in which his draft position will determine how much he exceeds his value by.

For a second rounder, in his 2nd-4th years in the league, we know that he's likely to be better than a replacement level player, and a key contributor on this team. Everything I've done says that a second round pick who doesn't bust out of the league, but also fails to become a superstar will be worth not quite a win per season on his rookie deal.

So I'm estimating over a large sample when I say the average second rounder is worth 2-3 wins over his rookie deal. About a third of the second round selections will be less than that, and a third will be more than that. But that's the [B]expectation [/B]for a second round selection, and expectation is really the only thing we are dealing with here.[/quote]

I'd be interested to hear what kind of analysis you're doing to strip out the covariances involved with the multiple variables driving team performance. That's the big reason sabermetrics has not caught on in football. With baseball, you can normalize your data set rather easily because in the end, it largely boils down to a pitcher vs hitter matchup, with a few variables like day vs night, score, and situation to adjust for. But in football, the QB's performance depend's upon the line's ability to block the defense, the WRs' ability to get open, the effectiveness of the running game, the score, the quarter, etcetera. It's hard enough to quantify some of these variables, and even harder to mathematically formulate the covariance quotients to effectively tease them out and normalize your data. Have you done anything on this front?

Re: Redskins trade for Jason Taylor (updated)
 

[quote=skinsnut;458079]Here are my thoughts

1. We paid too much with a 2nd and a 6th....I dont know what that amounts too by draft points...but its probably close to a low 1st for 2 years max.

...

5 This one really pisses me off.....our training staff.....last year we lost tons of guys for cramps and muscle pulls...injuries attributable to hydration and stretching.....NOW we lose 2 guys that arguably could have been avoided if they were loosened up more.
I dont blame the training staff....but...this is definately a trend that has not stopped which almost killed our season last year.

6 I love the fact that JT did that dancing thing....why? because he is flexible and has zero body fat...that means he's fit and unlikely to suffer bogus "freak" non contact injuries.

Even though the cons include a weaker run d and a loss of a very valuable 2nd rounder, I hesitantly approve due to the fact that there was NO ALTERNATIVE.
But I am still pissed at the training staff for sucking so bad.[/quote]


On point 1. The truth it is a 6th rounder is worth nothing on those charts. The 34th pick plus the first 6th round pick is "worth" less than the 32nd pick. Next the value of a 6th rounder in 2 years is not worth a sixth rounder in the current year according to charts. So that sixth is more like a 7th and the best 7th pick and the 33rd pick are less than the 32nd pick according to the charts. So really that 6th rounder is worth next to nothing.

Point 5. I agree. It has to do with conditioning. I would blame the players over the staff tho. It probably has to do more with their offseason programs than anything.

Point 6. yeah, I always though it was dumb of him to do that stupid dancing show. I mean he was saying on the show that he was dancing 8 9 hours a day. He is bound to have lost weight and lost muscle. A smart player would save that for retirement.
----


Honestly, we were forced into making this move. We needed to. Our D-line has been shit. AC helped us move from 19 sacks in 06 to like 33 in 07. This will help us move even farther. JT will finish out his contract and Vinny said that he expects him to play longer than that with the skins. This is a great move and again i have to say our staff did a great job. How do you lose a player before i eat lunch and have the best DE of the past 8 years signed before i eat dinner? On top of that we didn't give more than other teams were offering. On top of that our organization left enough cap to make a move like this. Good job on not blowing the cap before we actually needed it.

CAN"T WAIT TO SEE JASON IN CAMP!

Re: Redskins trade for Jason Taylor (updated)
 

taylor was by far the best option, and i'm shocked how many people here are complaining that we should have kept the 2nd and let wilson ruin our season... what a terrible idea.

yeah, we need to draft a DE, but at #21 it's hard to get a great player, and they (obviously) didn't like merling all that much. I rather trade down and get players the team actually does want than settle.

we'll need to draft someone eventually though, and it is pretty silly how long the team's waited to do so...

Re: Redskins trade for Jason Taylor (updated)
 

[quote=Schneed10;458198]I'd be interested to hear what kind of analysis you're doing to strip out the covariances involved with the multiple variables driving team performance. That's the big reason sabermetrics has not caught on in football. With baseball, you can normalize your data set rather easily because in the end, it largely boils down to a pitcher vs hitter matchup, with a few variables like day vs night, score, and situation to adjust for. But in football, the QB's performance depend's upon the line's ability to block the defense, the WRs' ability to get open, the effectiveness of the running game, the score, the quarter, etcetera. It's hard enough to quantify some of these variables, and even harder to mathematically formulate the covariance quotients to effectively tease them out and normalize your data. Have you done anything on this front?[/quote]

yeah, i watch the game.




but i did make a neat equation if you're interested:
good players = win more games.

yay!

Re: Redskins trade for Jason Taylor (updated)
 

[QUOTE=That Guy;458205]good players = win more games.[/QUOTE]

That is some funny sh#t!

Re: Redskins trade for Jason Taylor (updated)
 

[quote=skinsnut;458180]Are you out of your mind?
James in injured, Jackson is a nobody, Wilson is strictly a pass specialist.
We needed a valid starter, options were limited to zero.

I'm not thrilled about giving up a 2 but we really didn't have any other options rather than hoping one of our guys (or a FA) suddenly got 2-3 times more effective overnight[/quote]

I'm just a big believer in playing the guys you signed and brought in. If James is totally useless and isn't ready to play this year then why sign him in the first place? If they think Jackson has no ability except to be a camp scrub then why draft him? Can't Washington rush off the edge too? I don't believe in the quick fix because history shows it simply doesn't work. I believe in coaching up the guys you've got and going that route. Buges did it with Heyer last year. Wasn't Heyer a free agent??? Now going into this year Heyer has gained valuable experience and is a solid back-up with playing experience in case Jansen isn't effective. Why can't this new D-line coach do the same thing?

Re: Redskins trade for Jason Taylor (updated)
 

While E. James has been mentioned in this thread, nobody has really said anything about him in relation to the "we should've addressed DE years ago" argument. I don't disagree w/that sentiment, but like Vinny said, they weren't going to draft solely on need if nobody is left that they like. That's the way the chips fell.

The reason I mention James is that he's a project that could come around for us. If he can regain health & form (it's been done before), we'll have a young DE that could be re-signed for the next 5 years or so. My point is, they didn't draft a DE high but they did take steps to acquire some recently - Wilson, Buzbee, James & drafting Rob Jackson.

Though he's a long shot, if Jackson makes the team & James starts to contribute, the same people will be praising the front office's inexpensive & efficient methods at filling the DE position while still drafting offensive weapons.

Re: Redskins trade for Jason Taylor (updated)
 

[QUOTE=skinsfan69;458208]I'm just a big believer in playing the guys you signed and brought in. If James is totally useless and isn't ready to play this year then why sign him in the first place? If they think Jackson has no ability except to be a camp scrub then why draft him? Can't Washington rush off the edge too? I don't believe in the quick fix because history shows it simply doesn't work. I believe in coaching up the guys you've got and going that route. Buges did it with Heyer last year. Wasn't Heyer a free agent??? Now going into this year Heyer has gained valuable experience and solid bac-up with playing experience in case Jansen isn't effective. Why can't this new D-line coach do the same thing?[/QUOTE]

The problem is that you're not really being consistent with your use of the term "quick fix." What if James were ready to play, is that a "quick fix?" What if we had traded for Taylor earlier in the offseason? Would he not be a quick fix then? I just don't follow what you're saying.

As for Jackson, he was a 7th round draft pick this year. It's asking a whole lot for him to play a bunch of snaps this year. I'm aware of what Marques Colston did, but to ask that of anyone is a bit much.

On the topic of James, I don't think this was a situation where the Skins were looking for him to start the season at LE. He may not be able to play at all this year. That's not really a big deal, this was a low risk trade from the beginning. I don't see the problem if he doesn't play this year.

From what I saw last year, I don't ever want to see Marcus Washington with his hand on the ground again. I thought he was horribly ineffective last season. It seemed that he, more often than not, got stone walled and got his hands up.

I think the big thing is that the Skins had an opportunity to get a difference maker on the defensive line and did it. I would have made this trade even without the injury to Philip Daniels. It would have made the line deeper, Daniels can move inside and that would have been invaluable. I would have preferred a group of versatile players, but that's not what the Skins have. One thing I can pretty much guarantee is that Evans + Williams would not have been as effective as Jason Taylor.

Re: Redskins trade for Jason Taylor (updated)
 

[quote=That Guy;458205]yeah, i watch the game.




but i did make a neat equation if you're interested:
good players = win more games.

yay![/quote]

This was basically the point of my post. Sabermetrics is relatively useless in football because nobody's been able to do any of the things I mentioned.

Re: Redskins trade for Jason Taylor (updated)
 

[quote=Schneed10;458198]I'd be interested to hear what kind of analysis you're doing to strip out the covariances involved with the multiple variables driving team performance. That's the big reason sabermetrics has not caught on in football. With baseball, you can normalize your data set rather easily because in the end, it largely boils down to a pitcher vs hitter matchup, with a few variables like day vs night, score, and situation to adjust for. But in football, the QB's performance depend's upon the line's ability to block the defense, the WRs' ability to get open, the effectiveness of the running game, the score, the quarter, etcetera. It's hard enough to quantify some of these variables, and even harder to mathematically formulate the covariance quotients to effectively tease them out and normalize your data. Have you done anything on this front?[/quote]


This paragraph drips nerd. =)

Re: Redskins trade for Jason Taylor (updated)
 

Just heard Shockey went to the Saints. Can anyone confirm??

Re: Redskins trade for Jason Taylor (updated)
 

[quote=jdlea;458212]The problem is that you're not really being consistent with your use of the term "quick fix." What if James were ready to play, is that a "quick fix?" What if we had traded for Taylor earlier in the offseason? Would he not be a quick fix then? I just don't follow what you're saying.

As for Jackson, he was a 7th round draft pick this year. It's asking a whole lot for him to play a bunch of snaps this year. I'm aware of what Marques Colston did, but to ask that of anyone is a bit much.

On the topic of James, I don't think this was a situation where the Skins were looking for him to start the season at LE. He may not be able to play at all this year. That's not really a big deal, this was a low risk trade from the beginning. I don't see the problem if he doesn't play this year.

From what I saw last year, I don't ever want to see Marcus Washington with his hand on the ground again. I thought he was horribly ineffective last season. It seemed that he, more often than not, got stone walled and got his hands up.

I think the big thing is that the Skins had an opportunity to get a difference maker on the defensive line and did it. I would have made this trade even without the injury to Philip Daniels. It would have made the line deeper, Daniels can move inside and that would have been invaluable. I would have preferred a group of versatile players, but that's not what the Skins have. One thing I can pretty much guarantee is that Evans + Williams would not have been as effective as Jason Taylor.[/quote]

It's a quick fix cause Taylor is at the tail end of his career and probably isn't going to play but one or two more years. If we have a bad year I bet he is one and done.

As far as the other guys use them in a rotation. I don't think any of them are full time guys but rotate them.

Re: Redskins trade for Jason Taylor (updated)
 

Shockey traded: [url=http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=3498795]ESPN - Report: Saints acquire Shockey for draft picks - NFL[/url]

Re: Redskins trade for Jason Taylor (updated)
 

[QUOTE=skinsfan69;458218]It's a quick fix cause Taylor is at the tail end of his career and probably isn't going to play but one or two more years. If we have a bad year I bet he is one and done.

As far as the other guys use them in a rotation. I don't think any of them are full time guys but rotate them.[/QUOTE]

Okay, I see your point. I think that's fair, but for me, it's more of a "is Jason Taylor better than a rotation of the other guys on the roster?" For me that answer is definitely, he does. While I'm pretty sure no one disagrees with that, I don't believe Cerrato just made up this idea that he thinks Jason will play for a few seasons with the Skins. If he's right, that's great, if not, I'll revisit my feelings on this trade then.

Re: Redskins trade for Jason Taylor (updated)
 

[quote=BleedBurgundy;458224]Shockey traded: [URL="http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=3498795"]ESPN - Report: Saints acquire Shockey for draft picks - NFL[/URL][/quote]

Man that pisses me off. They could have at least waited a week to trade the guy. I hate it when people try to steal our thunder. Now the media has to split time praising the Redskins with the Saints.