Mattyk72 Presents the "Redskin Most Likely to Bounce Back in '07" Poll
 

Overall, it was-to be blunt-a disappointing season for the Redskins in 2006. Some guys in particular stood out though with their disappointing performance on the field.

Which of these four guys (Archuleta, Lloyd, Marshal, Rogers) is most likely to bounce back in 2007 with a strong season for the Redskins?

Vote or Earthquake will start a thread about starting threads that Daseal will piss on as Sportscurmudgeon asks you to please consider the economic ramifications of Chief Chucking My Spear's latest rant bemoaning Schneed10's poll of optimism.

Re: Mattyk72 Presents the "Redskin Most Likely to Bounce Back in '07" Poll
 

Rogers is the youngest one on the list and is going to mature and come into his own.

Re: Mattyk72 Presents the "Redskin Most Likely to Bounce Back in '07" Poll
 

I agree with Rogers, but dang...Archuletta and Lloyd really have nowhere to go but up

Re: Mattyk72 Presents the "Redskin Most Likely to Bounce Back in '07" Poll
 

The Secondary needs rogers to come into his own and be able to shut down those #1 WR's.

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I picked Rogers. What did he have, 6 or 7 dropped INT's this year? Catch those balls and he'll be a Pro Bowler.

I think Lloyd has the greatest potential if he can get his act together. Too bad for him his success depends on the other receivers and the QB getting him th ball. Not to mention Saunders offense doesn't seem very stat favorable for receivers.

Hard to say what role AA and Marshall are going to play next year so speculating their bounce back is going to be hard to pinpoint.

Re: Mattyk72 Presents the "Redskin Most Likely to Bounce Back in '07" Poll
 

I went with Rogers. Hopefully he is going to train with Darrel Green and Deion so he can really step his game up.

Re: Mattyk72 Presents the "Redskin Most Likely to Bounce Back in '07" Poll
 

Arch.. I find it impossible to believe he forgot to play football in one offseason. I think his confidence was shot and he was probably misused in GW system. Hopefully this year GW and AA will find ways to maximize his skills.

Re: Mattyk72 Presents the "Redskin Most Likely to Bounce Back in '07" Poll
 

I'm feeling Lloyd. I don't really think Rogers had an awful season for a 2nd year player. Lloyd didn't get the ball thrown his way very often and I see that changing in '07!

Re: Mattyk72 Presents the "Redskin Most Likely to Bounce Back in '07" Poll
 

don't you have to have a good season to be able to "bounce back"?

i'd guess arch. if he doesn't get burnt 4 times a game, it'll be a huge improvement.

Re: Mattyk72 Presents the "Redskin Most Likely to Bounce Back in '07" Poll
 

[QUOTE=That Guy;280339]don't you have to have a good season to be able to "bounce back"?

i'd guess arch. if he doesn't get burnt 4 times a game, it'll be a huge improvement.[/QUOTE]

They've all (with the possible exception of Rogers) shown they can play in the NFL.

Re: Mattyk72 Presents the "Redskin Most Likely to Bounce Back in '07" Poll
 

I think Arch. The coaches know what he can and can't do. If they don't get max preformace out of him then they should be fired. With Prioleau back his role will change.

Re: Mattyk72 Presents the "Redskin Most Likely to Bounce Back in '07" Poll
 

I voted for Archuleta, out of all the turds floating in this pool he was diarrhea. Hope he "solidifies" his play next year.

Re: Mattyk72 Presents the "Redskin Most Likely to Bounce Back in '07" Poll
 

I went with Lamar Marshall. I dont know, I just really like the guy. I thought he was our best LB in 2005, and the entire production of the team went down on that side of the ball and he was no exception. I think Arch will be better, but will probaboly still play only select downs, as I think Peirson will be the #1 guy. Lloyd really has no where to go but up as stated, and I think Rogers got way too much shit for his performace last year.

Re: Mattyk72 Presents the "Redskin Most Likely to Bounce Back in '07" Poll
 

Rogers really wasnt that bad compared to the rest. Everyone is just a hater.

Re: Mattyk72 Presents the "Redskin Most Likely to Bounce Back in '07" Poll
 

Sonny Jurgensen. He could always come back!

Re: Mattyk72 Presents the "Redskin Most Likely to Bounce Back in '07" Poll
 

I am surprised so many people voted for Rogers. Perhaps a case of wishful thinking?

Re: Mattyk72 Presents the "Redskin Most Likely to Bounce Back in '07" Poll
 

Really Rogers didn't have that bad of a year.I mean if he had another real CB next to him he would have looked better.That and he needs to learn how to catch the ball.Here's his stats he had 16 Pass Def.Thats pretty damn good for a corner.

[URL="http://www.nfl.com/players/playerpage/419829"]NFL.com - Carlos Rogers[/URL]

Re: Mattyk72 Presents the "Redskin Most Likely to Bounce Back in '07" Poll
 

[quote=Smurf85;280360]Really Rogers didn't have that bad of a year.I mean if he had another real CB next to him he would have looked better.That and he needs to learn how to catch the ball.Here's his stats he had 16 Pass Def.Thats pretty damn good for a corner.

[URL="http://www.nfl.com/players/playerpage/419829"]NFL.com - Carlos Rogers[/URL][/quote]

actually 16 pd means nothing at all. where's the times burnt stat?

seriously, when he was playing opposite of kenny wright, they weren't throwing at wright, they were throwing at him.

Re: Mattyk72 Presents the "Redskin Most Likely to Bounce Back in '07" Poll
 

rogers...the first round pick...i think he is the mostly likely on the list to remain a starter with a chance to prove his worth this season

Re: Mattyk72 Presents the "Redskin Most Likely to Bounce Back in '07" Poll
 

arch, hands down. cant possibly be as bad as he was last season. another year like that and he will be out of the league in a hurry

Re: Mattyk72 Presents the "Redskin Most Likely to Bounce Back in '07" Poll
 

What about Portis? Due to injuries he didnt do anything in 06 and it will be interesting to see if he can regain his form and stay injury free in 07.

Re: Mattyk72 Presents the "Redskin Most Likely to Bounce Back in '07" Poll
 

My feeling is that if Archuleta can work his way onto the field, he's the Favorite for Comeback Player of the Year. The pants-crappingly bad 2006 season left the bar that low.

Re: Mattyk72 Presents the "Redskin Most Likely to Bounce Back in '07" Poll
 

[QUOTE=irish;280380]What about Portis? Due to injuries he didnt do anything in 06 and it will be interesting to see if he can regain his form and stay injury free in 07.[/QUOTE]

Yeah I didn't count Portis or Priloeau because their disappointing 2006 seasons weren't the result of their performance on the field, just their in ability to be healthy and get on the field.

Re: Mattyk72 Presents the "Redskin Most Likely to Bounce Back in '07" Poll
 

Lloyd-Really, there's no evidence to expect this guy to improve for us. It's not like he was a great disappointment last year, he's simply just not a great WR.

Marshall-Boy would I love to pick my boy #98 here. However, I predict Rocky beats him out for the WLB job in training camp. He's going to be one of the best backup LBs in the business for us, and a great STeamer.

Rogers-I don't think Rogers had a horrible 2006. I think he's never going to be good enough to shut down an elite player in man coverage, but I don't think he's looking for a bounceback season.

Archuleta is my selection. He's done it in this league before, and I'm thinking he got scapegoated for a problem that only got worse after he was replaced. Nobody is going to complement his cover skills, but I think the last 7 games proved very clearly that Archuleta wasn't the problem on this defensive unit.

He has to stop missing open field tackles though. He may have had a bad back, but either you tough it out and make the good form tackle, or you get on that injury report. It seems to me that Archuleta probably had a pretty significant injury and was hiding it in an attempt to justify a huge deal.

I think he wins the starting job in camp next year. I'll even go on record as saying I think he and Sean Taylor will be playing together for many more years. He gets my vote.

Re: Mattyk72 Presents the "Redskin Most Likely to Bounce Back in '07" Poll
 

I like Rogers. Like 724Skins said, he cathces those ints, we forget all about Walt Harris.

Re: Mattyk72 Presents the "Redskin Most Likely to Bounce Back in '07" Poll
 

[quote=SkinsLove24/7;280317]The Secondary needs rogers to come into his own and be able to shut down those #1 WR's.[/quote]Not to crap all over your parade, but football outsiders does keep statistical rankings of teams defending certain positions in the passing game.

Our ranks vs:

#1 receiver: 19
[B]#2 receiver: 30[/B]
"other" receiver: 20
[B]TE: 28[/B]
[B]Running backs: 32[/B]

[url=http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef.php]FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Football analysis and NFL stats for the Moneyball era - Authors of Pro Football Prospectus 2006 and 2005[/url]

Considering we were the 32nd ranked passing D, we actually defend No. 1 receivers pretty well. These numbers support the case that LINEBACKERS and SAFETIES are where our trouble spot is, not the corners. That #2 receiver number is also pretty disturbing, but considering either Rogers or Springs was defending the #1 most of the time, those two guys are pretty much getting it done, even on the 32 ranked pass D.

Re: Mattyk72 Presents the "Redskin Most Likely to Bounce Back in '07" Poll
 

I'm riding the bandwagon and going with Rogers. I think with improved play from guys around him he'll really benefit.

Re: Mattyk72 Presents the "Redskin Most Likely to Bounce Back in '07" Poll
 

[quote=GTripp0012;280403]Not to crap all over your parade, but football outsiders does keep statistical rankings of teams defending certain positions in the passing game.

Our ranks vs:

#1 receiver: 19
[B]#2 receiver: 30[/B]
"other" receiver: 20
[B]TE: 28[/B]
[B]Running backs: 32[/B]

[URL="http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef.php"]FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Football analysis and NFL stats for the Moneyball era - Authors of Pro Football Prospectus 2006 and 2005[/URL]

Considering we were the 32nd ranked passing D, we actually defend No. 1 receivers pretty well. These numbers support the case that LINEBACKERS and SAFETIES are where our trouble spot is, not the corners. That #2 receiver number is also pretty disturbing, but considering either Rogers or Springs was defending the #1 most of the time, those two guys are pretty much getting it done, even on the 32 ranked pass D.[/quote]


Even still statistics only tell you so much and really should be taken with a grain salt when measuring what the Redskins did good and bad in '06.

My point is, because the defense as a whole was so bad, I wouldn't put too much stock in any one statistical category on the defensive side of the ball.

Re: Mattyk72 Presents the "Redskin Most Likely to Bounce Back in '07" Poll
 

I'll say David Patten. Damnit, at some point he's got to be good again right?

Really though, Rogers seems to make the most sense

Re: Mattyk72 Presents the "Redskin Most Likely to Bounce Back in '07" Poll
 

Speaking of bounce back, I'm glad we don't have to go through the Taylor Jacobs soap opera this year.

Re: Mattyk72 Presents the "Redskin Most Likely to Bounce Back in '07" Poll
 

[quote=12thMan;280422]Even still statistics only tell you so much and really should be taken with a grain salt when measuring what the Redskins did good and bad in '06.

My point is, because the defense as a whole was so bad, I wouldn't put too much stock in any one statistical category on the defensive side of the ball.[/quote]Stats tell you who produced, and who didn't. Don't turn a blind eye just because they don't tell you [I]why[/I] a guy performed poorly. Sometimes, "why" is irrelivant.

We didn't stop RBs, we didn't stop TE's and we didn't stop #2 WRs. Whats so bad about knowing where our problems lie so we can appropriately fix them?

Re: Mattyk72 Presents the "Redskin Most Likely to Bounce Back in '07" Poll
 

[QUOTE=TAFKAS;280384]Yeah I didn't count Portis or Priloeau because their disappointing 2006 seasons weren't the result of their performance on the field, just their in ability to be healthy and get on the field.[/QUOTE]

I understand but I do think that CP bouncing back is powers of ten times more important than any of those mentioned in the poll.

Re: Mattyk72 Presents the "Redskin Most Likely to Bounce Back in '07" Poll
 

[quote=GTripp0012;280429]Stats tell you who produced, and who didn't. Don't turn a blind eye just because they don't tell you [I]why[/I] a guy performed poorly. Sometimes, "why" is irrelivant.

We didn't stop RBs, we didn't stop TE's and we didn't stop #2 WRs. Whats so bad about knowing where our problems lie so we can appropriately fix them?[/quote]

[FONT=Verdana][SIZE=2][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][FONT=Verdana]Yes, that's true and I'm not turning a blind eye to stats, per se. [/FONT][/COLOR][/COLOR][/SIZE][/FONT]

[FONT=Verdana][SIZE=2][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][FONT=Verdana]That is a valid stat you pulled, but the defense as a whole ranked at the bottom of the league. We sucked when it was time to stop the pass and we sucked when it was time to stop the run. To me that's a 'nitpick' stat.[/FONT][/COLOR][/COLOR][/SIZE][/FONT]

[FONT=Verdana][SIZE=2][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][FONT=Verdana]I think a better question, in my mind, is how well did we do stopping teams on third down conversions? How many passing touchdowns did we give up inside the twenty? I'm not asking you to pull it up, but do you see where I'm going?[/FONT][/COLOR][/COLOR][/SIZE][/FONT]

[FONT=Verdana][SIZE=2][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][FONT=Verdana]Another thing, in my football ignorance, I still can't my mind around exactly what is a number one as opposed to a number two receiver. [/FONT][/COLOR][/COLOR][/SIZE][/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana][SIZE=2][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][FONT=Verdana]A team is going to use the best option available and try to create mismatches. Reggie Wayne torched us, yet he's considered a number two. [/FONT][/COLOR][/COLOR][/SIZE][/FONT]

Re: Mattyk72 Presents the "Redskin Most Likely to Bounce Back in '07" Poll
 

[quote=12thMan;280460][FONT=Verdana][SIZE=2][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][FONT=Verdana]Yes, that's true and I'm not turning a blind eye to stats, per se. [/FONT][/COLOR][/COLOR][/SIZE][/FONT]

[FONT=Verdana][SIZE=2][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][FONT=Verdana]That is a valid stat you pulled, but the defense as a whole ranked at the bottom of the league. We sucked when it was time to stop the pass and we sucked when it was time to stop the run. To me that's a 'nitpick' stat.[/FONT][/COLOR][/COLOR][/SIZE][/FONT]

[FONT=Verdana][SIZE=2][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][FONT=Verdana]I think a better question, in my mind, is how well did we do stopping teams on third down conversions? How many passing touchdowns did we give up inside the twenty? You see where I'm going?[/FONT][/COLOR][/COLOR][/SIZE][/FONT]

[FONT=Verdana][SIZE=2][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][FONT=Verdana]Another thing, in my football ignorance, I still can't my mind around exactly what is a number one as opposed to a number two receiver. [/FONT][/COLOR][/COLOR][/SIZE][/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana][SIZE=2][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][FONT=Verdana]A team is going to use the best option available and try to create mismatches. Reggie Wayne torched us, yet he's considered a number two. [/FONT][/COLOR][/COLOR][/SIZE][/FONT][/quote]All valid points. Our ranking vs certain receiver is just that, a ranking vs. certain receivers. Generally the CBs (or nickel backs) are responsible for the #1 and #2 wideouts, and the safeties and LBs for the TE, RBs, and slot receivers.

Actually, the #1 vs #2 wideout is a fairly subjective process. Generally I would say the #1 is the guy that gets the most passes thrown to him on a seasonal basis. Sometimes you do get teams like Indy who have a 1 and 1a. However, over the course of 16 games, if the numbers vs a #1 and #2 show a large discrepancy (as these do), then there is likely a significant value in the numbers.

I don't think it's nitpicking at all to use numbers to determine the safeties and linebackers are much farther below league average than the corners are. These numbers tell me that we need to improve the LBs (i.e. sign London Fletcher) and the S (get Taylor to play with more discipline--or bench him). We could use some improved CB depth in case of another Springs injury, but Rogers and Springs did a pretty good job with No. 1 receivers COMPARED to Wright/Rogers/Rumph/Jimoh with No. 2s and Washington/Marshall/Holdman/Taylor/Archuleta/Vincent/Fox with TEs and espicially RBs.

These numbers were charted under a consistent Redskin pass rush (or lack thereof), so it eliminates that varible.

Things like stopping 3rd down conversions and red zone TD passes are conducive to winning (and important statistical columns to improve in), but stats like that don't assign responsibility at an individual level. What I'm saying is that if we find statistically significant evidence that our team is poorly adept to stop a 3rd down conversion (a very reasonable theory) compared to other teams in the league, how is it that we can go about improving that? It's not specific enough to fault a position or player for this defensive shortcoming, so it's tough to fix the problem.

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I don't like Lloyd's chances at rebounding because he's such a bad apple. I don't think he accepts coaching well, and I think JC likes Moss and Cooley so much better as his primary targets.

I don't like Archuleta's chances at bouncing back either, but mainly because his skills just don't fit our defense. If you can't cover, you have no business playing safety alongside Sean Taylor. If you bring him in just for run support, you're basically telling the opposing QB, "hey, now would be a great time to audible to a post route."

I think Lemar Marshall will rebound nicely if we end up with Alan Branch. Ask me again after the draft.

I think Carlos Rogers will come around. He's better than that, and he started to show it at the end of last season. I vote for him.

Re: Mattyk72 Presents the "Redskin Most Likely to Bounce Back in '07" Poll
 

[quote=GTripp0012;280469]All valid points. Our ranking vs certain receiver is just that, a ranking vs. certain receivers. Generally the CBs (or nickel backs) are responsible for the #1 and #2 wideouts, and the safeties and LBs for the TE, RBs, and slot receivers.

Actually, the #1 vs #2 wideout is a fairly subjective process. Generally I would say the #1 is the guy that gets the most passes thrown to him on a seasonal basis. Sometimes you do get teams like Indy who have a 1 and 1a. However, over the course of 16 games, if the numbers vs a #1 and #2 show a large discrepancy (as these do), then there is likely a significant value in the numbers.

I don't think it's nitpicking at all to use numbers to determine the safeties and linebackers are much farther below league average than the corners are. These numbers tell me that we need to improve the LBs (i.e. sign London Fletcher) and the S (get Taylor to play with more discipline--or bench him). We could use some improved CB depth in case of another Springs injury, but Rogers and Springs did a pretty good job with No. 1 receivers COMPARED to Wright/Rogers/Rumph/Jimoh with No. 2s and Washington/Marshall/Holdman/Taylor/Archuleta/Vincent/Fox with TEs and espicially RBs.

These numbers were charted under a consistent Redskin pass rush (or lack thereof), so it eliminates that varible.

Things like stopping 3rd down conversions and red zone TD passes are conducive to winning (and important statistical columns to improve in), but stats like that don't assign responsibility at an individual level. What I'm saying is that if we find statistically significant evidence that our team is poorly adept to stop a 3rd down conversion (a very reasonable theory) compared to other teams in the league, how is it that we can go about improving that? It's not specific enough to fault a position or player for this defensive shortcoming, so it's tough to fix the problem.[/quote]


I think it's fair to say we just need help on that side of the ball. As I've also stated in previous posts, I think coaching played a role in our demise.

That's a theory or reality which hard to quantify statistically.

I also might add, I'm not sure about the idea London Fletcher being the answer in the middle. We'll see.

Re: Mattyk72 Presents the "Redskin Most Likely to Bounce Back in '07" Poll
 

[quote=12thMan;280478]I think it's fair to say we just need help on that side of the ball. As I've also stated in previous posts, I think coaching played a role in our demise.

That's a theory or reality which hard to quantify statistically.

I also might add, I'm not sure about the idea London Fletcher being the answer in the middle. We'll see.[/quote]So, if I understand you right, you believe we need to 1) change the scheme and 2) gut the defensive roster and rebuild it from relative scratch? Or are you saying keep the roster, and just add as much help as cost allows for?

It doesn't get any worse than last year, but are there any players (outside of our recent draft picks like Taylor and Rogers) you'd want to keep around (as starters)?

Re: Mattyk72 Presents the "Redskin Most Likely to Bounce Back in '07" Poll
 

It was a toss up between the three, Lloyd just being on the field will improve, Rogers had a better year in 05 so we know he can play better he just has to go out and play, But I think AA is going to be the surprise this year (if he is still on the team). He came out and admitted that the big contract really effected his play and he seemed to be ashamed of the way he played. He comes back ready to show the NFL that last year was a fluke and he plays with a chip on his shoulder and the coaches find a way to use his strengths.

Re: Mattyk72 Presents the "Redskin Most Likely to Bounce Back in '07" Poll
 

[quote=GTripp0012;280497]So, if I understand you right, you believe we need to 1) change the scheme and 2) gut the defensive roster and rebuild it from relative scratch? Or are you saying keep the roster, and just add as much help as cost allows for?

It doesn't get any worse than last year, but are there any players (outside of our recent draft picks like Taylor and Rogers) you'd want to keep around (as starters)?[/quote]

I think change the scheme would be an overstatement, tweek yes.

I said nothing about gutting or rebuilding the defensive side of the roster.

Personally I think we're maybe two good players, a good offseason, and looking at the cover-two scheme away from laying a hurting on some teams next year.

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Lemar Marshall. Also, I expect George Preston Marshall to have a much better year. He's due.