The downside to trading down.
 

It looks like a consensus is forming that there isn't a whole lot of first round talent in this draft. It looks like this is a good draft to be drafting early in round one to get a shot at one of the top 7 or 8 players, or in the mid teens or so to get a crack at one of the few second tier first rounders. After the late teens or so, this draft apparently drops to a lot of second round talents, so having a stockpile of second and third round picks is also looking good, because the real sharp talent drop off in the first round is going to make it so the late first round picks aren't going to be a great deal better that their second and third round counterparts.

With that said, I think that overall depiction of this years crop of draftees makes me very hesitant to do anything to land us in the late first round. We have heard a lot of people talk about "value" this offseason. It would appear that the value is around where we're picking and down a couple spots. If we trade too far down we could wind up paying a second round talent first round money, which is exactly what this team doesn't need.

Here is a Peter King (we hate him) article on the topic.

[url=http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/writers/peter_king/04/15/draft/index.html]SI.com - Writers - Peter King: Not enough talent to justify first-round money in draft - Monday April 16, 2007 1:12PM[/url]

Thoughts?

Re: The downside to trading down.
 

IMO there is NO downside to trading down PERIOD........Peter the Peter just like the rest of um.

Re: The downside to trading down.
 

more draft picks = good thing. just my 2 cents worth

Re: The downside to trading down.
 

I still believe that the best thing to do is get more picks this year. We can sign the start in free agency, but we need two solid players from this draft.

Re: The downside to trading down.
 

I have heard the opposite - that outside of the top 4 or 5 picks there is not a lot of seperation between the players. Also, there are no true elite defensive players in this draft. Since defense is ostensibly where we are looking, I would think trading down would make more sense this year, especially if we are targeting a certain player we believe will still be available further back.

Re: The downside to trading down.
 

Trading down is far more beneficial than trading up. Just look at what the Chargers got when the drafted and traded Eli Manning. If Eli doesnt start picking up the play that might go down as one of the most uneven trades of all time. To trade up you always spend more than what a player is worth. And because the draft is so unpredicatable having more picks is better than putting all your eggs in one basket. If you trade up and the player you pick plays like garbage...Eli Manning you might screw your team over for years to come. On the other side you might pass up on a great player like Reggie Bush because you think you have more pressing needs. The Texans are idiots. The lesson is dont be like the giants or texans

Re: The downside to trading down.
 

I'm fine if we stay put or trade down. Trading up is NOT an option.

Re: The downside to trading down.
 

Can we find second half of round one picks over the last five to ten years? Maybe the answer can be had with them. I know there have been some real good late first rounders, but some bad ones too. What are they like on average. The NFL draft is kind of like a baseball game, you don't know what is going to happen but you should almost always play the averages.

Re: The downside to trading down.
 

I really don't care if we trade down, or use the draft pick...I care about actually making the most of these draft picks. If that means getting Okoye, fine, if that means, getting Gaines Adams, fine, if that means getting more picks, I'm all for it, but don't take a freakin chance on another Patrick Ramsey type player. Use the draft for needs!!!!

Re: The downside to trading down.
 

* He said this year's first round talent isn't as good as last year's star-studded first round.

"There's not much difference between the guy that goes 45 and the guy that goes 25," he said. "There are going to be some guys that go in the first round that aren't necessarily worthy."

Since not many people responded, I thought maybe hearing it from the biggest draft guru on the planet might stir up some less one sided debate. I still say we need more picks, but we also need to be sure that we land one of these two guys:

* He is high on LSU safety LaRon Landry -- Kiper's mock draft has the Redskins taking Landry.

"He should be a Pro Bowl caliber player," he said. "He'll be better than Roy Williams, no question."

* Kiper is also high on Louisville defensive tackle Amobi Okoye, another player on the Redskins' radar screen.

"You see a lot of the same qualities in Okoye that you do in Calvin Johnson -- tremendously mature and productive week in and week out," he said. "Athletically and strength-wise, he's what you want."

We must have one of these two players sitting at our position. If they are both there at six I would take a 3rd, 4th or perhaps even a fifth rounder to move down a spot. Best case is that one of the QB's is there as well. We can't get too greedy about what we get back. We need one of those two and a pick if possible. We cannot settle for less. If we trade too far down we are really setting up for an overpaid second round talent who gets paid first round money. Unacceptable.

Re: The downside to trading down.
 

[QUOTE=TenandSix:Unacceptable;299296]* He said this year's first round talent isn't as good as last year's star-studded first round.

"There's not much difference between the guy that goes 45 and the guy that goes 25," he said. "There are going to be some guys that go in the first round that aren't necessarily worthy."

Since not many people responded, I thought maybe hearing it from the biggest draft guru on the planet might stir up some less one sided debate. I still say we need more picks, but we also need to be sure that we land one of these two guys:

* He is high on LSU safety LaRon Landry -- Kiper's mock draft has the Redskins taking Landry.

"He should be a Pro Bowl caliber player," he said. "He'll be better than Roy Williams, no question."

* Kiper is also high on Louisville defensive tackle Amobi Okoye, another player on the Redskins' radar screen.

"You see a lot of the same qualities in Okoye that you do in Calvin Johnson -- tremendously mature and productive week in and week out," he said. "Athletically and strength-wise, he's what you want."

We must have one of these two players sitting at our position. If they are both there at six I would take a 3rd, 4th or perhaps even a fifth rounder to move down a spot. Best case is that one of the QB's is there as well. We can't get too greedy about what we get back. We need one of those two and a pick if possible. We cannot settle for less. If we trade too far down we are really setting up for an overpaid second round talent who gets paid first round money. Unacceptable.[/QUOTE]

No, no, no...Either we get Okoye / Gaines Adams, or we trade WAY down. Landry is not the answer for the Skins.

Re: The downside to trading down.
 

I would'nt mind trading down, best scenario if Quinn or Russell fell to #6, highly unlikely but thats where we'd get the most, many teams would be willing to give up a lot.

Re: The downside to trading down.
 

[QUOTE=pdid5000;299301]I would'nt mind trading down, best scenario if Quinn or Russell fell to #6, highly unlikely but thats where we'd get the most, many teams would be willing to give up a lot.[/QUOTE]


This is why I try to stay away from draft day comments, cause we do not need a Russell or a Quinn...that would be a waste of a pick unless we planned to trade them.
We have glaring needs, and we need the draft to address these needs.
Not that it matters, but neither of those 2 will be available.

Re: The downside to trading down.
 

The fact of the matter is nobody knows if the talent is good in the draft or not. There are always good players in every draft and the good organizations are gonna find them. I gaurentee you Ozzie Newsome won't have any problems finding players. Vinny Cerrato might find it hard.

Re: The downside to trading down.
 

[quote=jsarno;299298]No, no, no...Either we get Okoye / Gaines Adams, or we trade WAY down. Landry is not the answer for the Skins.[/quote]

If we trade WAY down, it better be all the way out of the first round. I'm telling you, based on very legit sources, this draft doesn't have a full stock of first round talents. Getting a late first is a terrible move unless it is part of a trade that gets us a BUNCH of seconds, thirds and fourths. For instance, if we got a late first and a second, we have the potential to shell out a lot of cash and have a couple of scrubs in return. Landry is the best athlete IN THE ENTIRE STATE OF LOUISIANA. He will not bust barring injury and he will be a first year starter and projects as a pro bowler. He will help out our entire back seven, allow ST to roam/headhunt, and take pressure off our cornerbacks.

We're going to have our pick of these two. We should at least expect one of them. The DL is in need of some serious attention, I don't deny it, but you can't fix everything in one offseason and passing up on BPA's for need in the NFL draft is crazy talk unless it means us taking Peterson which would be ridiculous. If they wanted a full slate of draft picks they should have thought about it before being complete ass clowns the last couple years. Gains Adams is the next best option IMO. There are questions about how he'd fit in with us, that's why he worries me so high. But if they trade WAY down as you say, there will be no Adams, no Carriker, no Okoye, no Branch, no Landry. If this was a different type of draft, then trading down to the end of the round would be a great idea. This is not the draft to drop out of the top 14 or so. We can't afford to spend first day money on undeserving chumps and projects.

I am hoping for Landry more and more now just to prove all these haters wrong. Like I've been saying, IF we take LL and the team still sucks, there's always 2008. LL is worth top dollar in terms of talent, the question is does he translate into wins? As far as I can see, our success depends more on JC than anyone we draft. If JC plays well, I'll take a LL and ST lead D into any building in the league, and I'll be damn confident too. We'll see what we do. Whatever it is, I am on record as saying it doesn't look good late first round of this draft. Private message me in three years if I'm wrong.

Re: The downside to trading down.
 

I love the NFL, baseball season is starting up, the NBA playoffs are about to begin, and I just googled hockey and apparently there's some league called the NHL that has playoffs going on right now. I think their games are on Oxygen right after a replay of Oprah.

Anyways, the last time I recall us getting a first round talent in the second round said wideout tore his labrum tying his shoes in his first year, and I think he sprained all three of his knee ligaments when he stepped out of a cab going to the Cherry Blossom Festival in year two. I swear I'm not normally this negative...

If we had a scouting department worth a crap then we would be able to find some players who could excel in our system.

Re: The downside to trading down.
 

How in the world is there a downside to trading down? You can either get 1 Football player or you can get 2. I like the idea of two, yeah, yeah, I think 2 is better than 1.

Re: The downside to trading down.
 

[QUOTE=TenandSix:Unacceptable;299327]If we trade WAY down, it better be all the way out of the first round. I'm telling you, based on very legit sources, this draft doesn't have a full stock of first round talents. Getting a late first is a terrible move unless it is part of a trade that gets us a BUNCH of seconds, thirds and fourths. For instance, if we got a late first and a second, we have the potential to shell out a lot of cash and have a couple of scrubs in return. Landry is the best athlete IN THE ENTIRE STATE OF LOUISIANA. He will not bust barring injury and he will be a first year starter and projects as a pro bowler. He will help out our entire back seven, allow ST to roam/headhunt, and take pressure off our cornerbacks.

We're going to have our pick of these two. We should at least expect one of them. The DL is in need of some serious attention, I don't deny it, but you can't fix everything in one offseason and passing up on BPA's for need in the NFL draft is crazy talk unless it means us taking Peterson which would be ridiculous. If they wanted a full slate of draft picks they should have thought about it before being complete ass clowns the last couple years. Gains Adams is the next best option IMO. There are questions about how he'd fit in with us, that's why he worries me so high. But if they trade WAY down as you say, there will be no Adams, no Carriker, no Okoye, no Branch, no Landry. If this was a different type of draft, then trading down to the end of the round would be a great idea. This is not the draft to drop out of the top 14 or so. We can't afford to spend first day money on undeserving chumps and projects.

I am hoping for Landry more and more now just to prove all these haters wrong. Like I've been saying, IF we take LL and the team still sucks, there's always 2008. LL is worth top dollar in terms of talent, the question is does he translate into wins? As far as I can see, our success depends more on JC than anyone we draft. If JC plays well, I'll take a LL and ST lead D into any building in the league, and I'll be damn confident too. We'll see what we do. Whatever it is, I am on record as saying it doesn't look good late first round of this draft. Private message me in three years if I'm wrong.[/QUOTE]

Well, my projections have Gaines Adams going 2nd or 3rd. Not that I'm an expert, but I just don't see him being there when we draft. That will leave Okoye and Landry. While I do like Landry...what's not to like...I think Okoye is the better option. This kid is amazingly talented and he's only 19. How do we even know Landry would fit into our secondary...I mean we did break a once all pro AA.
I just don't put much stock into people saying it's "thin" after a certain amount of players are gone. There have been 4th / 5th / 6th rounders that have become all pro's and some hall of famers. And who is to say that we won't trade our first rounder for a 1st rounder in 08 and a first rounder in 09 or something like that? There are a million options.
Who knows...you may be right...but why convince us? We don't make the decisions. We (the Redskins) may make a horrible choice in our draft pick...it wouldn't be the first time.

Re: The downside to trading down.
 

[quote=angryssg;299343]How in the world is there a downside to trading down? You can either get 1 Football player or you can get 2. I like the idea of two, yeah, yeah, I think 2 is better than 1.[/quote]

depends on how far we go down

Re: The downside to trading down.
 

[quote=angryssg;299343]How in the world is there a downside to trading down? You can either get 1 Football player or you can get 2. I like the idea of two, yeah, yeah, I think 2 is better than 1.[/quote]

Well you can get 1 Pro-Bowler (Okoye) or two starters that might pan out. Tommie Harris is greater than Tank Johnson and Bernard Berrian. Remember in 2003 when the Cardinals traded down from 6 to 17 and 18. At 6 they could have taken Kevin Williams, Terrance Newman, Jordan Gross, Byron Leftwich, Terrell Suggs, or Marcus Trufant. Instead they ended up with Calvin Pace and Bryant Johnson.

Then again nothings a gurantee as far as the drafts concerned. I say stay pat a 6 and take Okoye, or trade down to 12 and take Cariker. Other than that keep all of next years pick. Usually when theres a bad draft then you can be fairly confident that the next one will be loaded with talent.

Re: The downside to trading down.
 

I don't even think that Okoye is a guarantee. I think he'll be good, but honestly if we can move to the early tens, I'd LOVE that if we could also pick up a second rounder.

Re: The downside to trading down.
 

As it is seen in every draft there is no down side to trading down. You really never know what your gonna get. There a tons of guys selected in the first round that do not make 3 or 4 years in the NFL. Why not trade down and get 2 or 3 more players that help. That helps all the way around from salary to on the field. Sean Taylor and Jason Campbell were good 1st round selections, but Carlos Rogers is another story. He shows flashes but this will be a make or break year for him. As of right now he may not be starting opposite Springs on opening day. It very well could be Smoot. Other than that look at Ramsey, Jacobs-2nd rounder but high , Desmond Howard, heath Shuler. What i am really trying to state is trading down would honestly be the best option and it will not hurt this team. I still do like Gaines Adams and Laron Landry. But you still do not know if they will be good in the NFL though. So why not trade down and save some money.

Re: The downside to trading down.
 

[quote=TheMalcolmConnection;299712]I don't even think that Okoye is a guarantee. I think he'll be good, but honestly if we can move to the early tens, I'd LOVE that if we could also pick up a second rounder.[/quote]

Hey if we go down to the ten range, would most people be happy with Branch, Anderson, or Carriker and a second? That doesn't seem bad to me. Is that better than Okoye only?



(Obviously better than LL in most peoples minds, so I won't even ask. :cheeky-sm )

Re: The downside to trading down.
 

Mel Kiper also noted that the value chart is over blown, that it is usually a good thing to have more picks, period. We might not trade because we won't get chart value, he thinks we should be more flexible and realize the benefit of getting a few more choices. If we are truly unconfident in our ability to make mid round selections and turn them into pros, we need a new scouting department IMO.

Re: The downside to trading down.
 

I have to say, I'll take a second or third rounder...that's IT. When you get into the fourth and after rounds, it becomes more and more of a crapshoot.

Re: The downside to trading down.
 

If indeed it is a fact there is no player of need worthy of what a #6 pick will command, then the question becomes; what can we possibly expect by trading down? The Redskins have a track record of not drafting well in later rounds, coupled with their seemingly lack of desire to develop young players of lesser talent. My concern with trading down is the quality of talent, and the length of time it will take to develop them. I would hope for at least one impact player with the ability to start as opposed to two or three developmental projects knowing the teams desire for proven players. A team should not have to wait two or three years to reap the benefits of such a high draft position. This team need to concentrate on improving it's defense "now", and should draft accordingly because it hasn't done enough thus far to make a marked improvement.

Re: The downside to trading down.
 

To make the comparison a little fairer, let's suppose our two options are trade down to 7 or 8 and get a shot at LL, Adams or Okoye and a 4th rounder, or going down to 10-14 and while getting a second rounder and whoever's left of Carriker, Branch, Anderson. Which would you prefer?

Re: The downside to trading down.
 

The latter.

Re: The downside to trading down.
 

[QUOTE=TenandSix:Unacceptable;299779]To make the comparison a little fairer, let's suppose our two options are trade down to 7 or 8 and get a shot at LL, Adams or Okoye and a 4th rounder, or going down to 10-14 and while getting a second rounder and whoever's left of Carriker, Branch, Anderson. Which would you prefer?[/QUOTE]


Basically I have no problem with any trade down (providing we have a trade partner) that will render us a player (regardless of position) that will make the roster and contribute this year. I'm not for trading for players we'll have to wait years for them to be ready to play. That would be fine for a team with limited needs, but if the Redskins want to do better than 5-11 this year, we need players that can step in and contribute right away. I've said before, this team is almost set, there's not going to be many additions, therefore the additions we do make must be for quality contributors "now".

Re: The downside to trading down.
 

[quote=Longtimefan;299782]Basically I have no problem with any trade down (providing we have a trade partner) that will render us a player (regardless of position) that will make the roster and contribute this year. I'm not for trading for players we'll have to wait years for them to be ready to play. That would be fine for a team with limited needs, but if the Redskins want to do better than 5-11 this year, we need players that can step in and contribute right away. I've said before, this team is almost set, there's not going to be many additions, therefore the additions we do make must be for quality contributors "now".[/quote]Generally, if you have to wait more than a year for a player to be starting quality (quarterbacks are an exception), he's probably not going to be very good.

The name of the game is simple: Just ignore the hype and draft the best prospect. The best prospect will produce at levels respective to his experience, but always at a level higher than lesser prospect.

Re: The downside to trading down.
 

[quote=TenandSix:Unacceptable;299779]To make the comparison a little fairer, let's suppose our two options are trade down to 7 or 8 and get a shot at LL, Adams or Okoye and a 4th rounder, or going down to 10-14 and while getting a second rounder and whoever's left of Carriker, Branch, Anderson. Which would you prefer?[/quote]I'd take the second, but only because that first trade is a horrible offer. If the Falcons aren't going to give us their 2nd to move up to 6, I would expect [I]at least[/I] a third this year and a day 1 selection next year.

If somebody in the 7-10 range wants to trade up, it will cost them a 2nd rounder.

Actually now that I think about it, I'd just tell those teams to "screw off" and keep the No. 6 pick and take Okoye with it. They can take those rip off offers to Arizona.

Re: The downside to trading down.
 

the more I think about last season, the more I think that LL should be a consideration. I'm still a believer in the d-line problems being big, but if we could have just generated an average number of turnovers against other teams we could have easily won 4 more games and made the playoffs. We have enough money to sign one more free agent DT and there are a couple out there that could help in a rotation (scott...) or improve things a good bit.

I wonder what the skins are really planning to do????????

Re: The downside to trading down.
 

[quote=jsarno;299305]This is why I try to stay away from draft day comments, cause we do not need a Russell or a Quinn...that would be a waste of a pick unless we planned to trade them.
We have glaring needs, and we need the draft to address these needs.
Not that it matters, but neither of those 2 will be available.[/quote]I'm not saying draft quinn or russell if they fell, teams would want to trade up to our pick to get either one of those guys and would probably give up a lot.

Re: The downside to trading down.
 

[QUOTE=pdid5000;299847]I'm not saying draft quinn or russell if they fell, teams would want to trade up to our pick to get either one of those guys and would probably give up a lot.[/QUOTE]

That's true...and we will see a trade take place if those 2 are still available at our pick...but I doubt that will happen.
I just don't forsee a lot of teams trying to trade up this year...but I could be wrong.

Re: The downside to trading down.
 

Lets face it, we are stuck at 6.

Re: The downside to trading down.
 

[QUOTE=angryssg;299986]Lets face it, we are stuck at 6.[/QUOTE]

I don't think this is a bad thing...if we get Okoye we'll get a truly gifted athlete that can be a force in the middle for us for at least a solid decade.

Re: The downside to trading down.
 

[quote=jsarno;299993]I don't think this is a bad thing...if we get Okoye we'll get a truly gifted athlete that can be a force in the middle for us for at least a solid decade.[/quote]

I'm not concerned whatsoever. I have faith that the FO will do the right thing. I like Okoye and Adams

Re: The downside to trading down.
 

[QUOTE=angryssg;299994]I'm not concerned whatsoever. I have faith that the FO will do the right thing. I like Okoye and Adams[/QUOTE]

hahaha...I don't have that faith...but I'm hoping REALLY hard that we don't skrew this one up.

Re: The downside to trading down.
 

Oh yeah, and we NEED Gaines Adams more than we need Okoye, but I am betting Adams will be gone before our pick.

Re: The downside to trading down.
 

[quote=jsarno;300000]Oh yeah, and we NEED Gaines Adams more than we need Okoye, but I am betting Adams will be gone before our pick.[/quote]

Lets say that Hypothetically we got Adams. Which DE does he replace if any? IYO