Is trading down worth giving up the chance to take a future Pro-Bowler
 

Alright heres the deal. Many scouts out there are thinking that a guy like Okoye could be the next Warren Sapp, and personally I agree with them. However if we trade down past the 7 spot then theres very little chance that we end up with Amobi.

Now I know it would be great to trade down and get some more picks, but the question you have to ask yourself is, it is worth it to give up the chance to draft one of the 8 elite prospects in the draft for the chance to pick up 2 or 3 possible starters?

Lets look at the facts this draft is a little short on talent and not only does a guy like Okoye come along around once every 5 years but the chance to be in position to take a guy like that can come once in, well it depends on how bad you are but even then it can take years.

So why take quanity over quality?
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End necessary reading, begin supporting rant

Personaly if this draft is as lacksadaisy on talent as the so called experts say it is then maybe we picked a hell of a year to give up most of our picks (which is probably why the scouting department wasn't so attached to giving away next years second in the first place during the Rocky McIntosh ordeal).

And for those of you that got mad that the Redskins traded away their 2nd and 3rd round pick consider this, if we had those picks we'd be using them to move up and take Calvin Johnson. I'm not saying it was smart but think of it as taking crack out of the hands of a recovering crack addict.

Re: Is trading down worth giving up the chance to take a future Pro-Bowler
 

Well, I would say no, because I believe there is a big dropoff between Okoye and then next best thing.

Re: Is trading down worth giving up the chance to take a future Pro-Bowler
 

Ask any coach in the NFL, and they will tell you that there are only 2 or 3 if that "Elite players" on any NFL team. With that said it is the quality of the rest of the guys on the roster that make the difference in the Win column.

My point is that I would take 2 potential starters over a possible "Elite" any day of the week.

Re: Is trading down worth giving up the chance to take a future Pro-Bowler
 

[quote=angryssg;301414]Ask any coach in the NFL, and they will tell you that there are only 2 or 3 if that "Elite players" on any NFL team. With that said it is the quality of the rest of the guys on the roster that make the difference in the Win column.

My point is that I would take 2 potential starters over a possible "Elite" any day of the week.[/quote]Well with a waiver wire full of competant players, the NFL is definately a league where quality trumps quantity. So you never pass up a chance to land an elite player at a critical or need position, I agree with you.

You just have to be very careful to not overvalue a guy just because everyone else thinks hes something special.

The Skins have a very good college scouting department. I think we will be taking Okoye.

Re: Is trading down worth giving up the chance to take a future Pro-Bowler
 

Of course the flip side is that the way teams scout prospects today, the elite guys have a good chance of slipping down the board.

Here's my list of "elite" prospects from this years draft:

Amobi Okoye
LaRon Landry
Joe Thomas
Levi Brown
Brady Quinn

I think this is a really good year for top end offensive tackles. Two guys I would consider "elite" and one really good guy in Joe Staley. I'd give em all top 10 grades because LTs are so damn important.

Re: Is trading down worth giving up the chance to take a future Pro-Bowler
 

[quote=GTripp0012;301418]Well with a waiver wire full of competant players, the NFL is definately a league where quality trumps quantity. So you never pass up a chance to land an elite player at a critical or need position, I agree with you.

You just have to be very careful to not overvalue a guy just because everyone else thinks hes something special.

The Skins have a very good college scouting department. I think we will be taking Okoye.[/quote]

I don't disagree with us taking Okoye if we are stuck at six. If the opportunity arises for us to move back, I guarentee that the FO will jump on it.

Re: Is trading down worth giving up the chance to take a future Pro-Bowler
 

[quote=Dirtbag359;301407]

Personaly if this draft is as lacksadaisy on talent as the so called experts say it is then maybe we picked a hell of a year to give up most of our picks (which is probably why the scouting department wasn't so attached to giving away next years second in the first place during the Rocky McIntosh ordeal).
[/quote]

You give them too much credit for foresight. Its impossible to know a year in advance what the draft will look like. Guys have stellar senior campaigns (or flop), there are injuries, juniors come out, etc. etc. etc. The guy you love is a perfect example. Okoye was set up to be a second round pick prior to his work at the Senior Bowl and scouting combine. I say you probably want to stay in the top 10, but if Miami comes strong in a move to get Quinn (and that would require them giving up a 2nd, and I'd rather have their 1st [#40] than their 2nd [#60] but that would be highway robbery) then I say make the move. I think Okoye could very well slip past Atlanta and you get him anyway, and if not then you take someone like Carriker (who I like more than Anderson, but what do I know). The draft is a total crap shoot so you need more chances to roll the dice. If you can pick up a 2nd then do it. You have just as much chance of picking a Pro Bowler at 9 as you do at 6 (in 2005 Demarcus Ware went #11 and Shawn Merriman #12. Just before them Pacman, Troy Williamson, Antrel Rolle, Carlos Rogers, and Mike Williams went 6-10).

Re: Is trading down worth giving up the chance to take a future Pro-Bowler
 

[QUOTE=GTripp0012;301422]Of course the flip side is that the way teams scout prospects today, the elite guys have a good chance of slipping down the board.

Here's my list of "elite" prospects from this years draft:

Amobi Okoye
LaRon Landry
Joe Thomas
[B]Levi Brown[/B]
Brady Quinn

I think this is a really good year for top end offensive tackles. Two guys I would consider "elite" and one really good guy in Joe Staley. I'd give em all top 10 grades because LTs are so damn important.[/QUOTE]

You know in college I directed a short film in which Levi Brown played the villain? I have to get it on youtube to show you guys. He is a large human being.

Re: Is trading down worth giving up the chance to take a future Pro-Bowler
 

[quote=djnemo65;301443]You know in college I directed a short film in which Levi Brown played the villain? I have to get it on youtube to show you guys. He is a large human being.[/quote]

That would be awesome.

Re: Is trading down worth giving up the chance to take a future Pro-Bowler
 

[QUOTE=SC Skins Fan;301424]You give them too much credit for foresight. Its impossible to know a year in advance what the draft will look like. Guys have stellar senior campaigns (or flop), there are injuries, juniors come out, etc. etc. etc. The guy you love is a perfect example. Okoye was set up to be a second round pick prior to his work at the Senior Bowl and scouting combine. I say you probably want to stay in the top 10, but if Miami comes strong in a move to get Quinn (and that would require them giving up a 2nd, and I'd rather have their 1st [#40] than their 2nd [#60] but that would be highway robbery) then I say make the move. I think Okoye could very well slip past Atlanta and you get him anyway, and if not then you take someone like Carriker (who I like more than Anderson, but what do I know). The draft is a total crap shoot so you need more chances to roll the dice. If you can pick up a 2nd then do it. You have just as much chance of picking a Pro Bowler at 9 as you do at 6 (in 2005 Demarcus Ware went #11 and Shawn Merriman #12. Just before them Pacman, Troy Williamson, Antrel Rolle, Carlos Rogers, and Mike Williams went 6-10).[/QUOTE]

Great post. Most of us think Okoye would be the best pick because the analysts think so (including me). However, I am aware that most great players out-perform their draft value. It is totally possible that the best D-Lineman from this draft comes deeper than #6.

Re: Is trading down worth giving up the chance to take a future Pro-Bowler
 

Okoye is still very much a project. I could see him sitting for much of the year, much like Rocky did this previous season and Campbell the season before.

Can Redskins fans accept that?

Re: Is trading down worth giving up the chance to take a future Pro-Bowler
 

[quote=SmootSmack;301454]Okoye is still very much a project. I could see him sitting for much of the year, much like Rocky did this previous season and Campbell the season before.

Can Redskins fans accept that?[/quote]

I dont't think GW starts Rookies unless he has no choice ir they really grasp the defense anyway. No matter who we draft, they may not start but will get thrown into the rotation. I do not believe that any rookie that is added will be the difference between the playoffs and another top 10 pick. So we may be waiting anyway.

Re: Is trading down worth giving up the chance to take a future Pro-Bowler
 

[QUOTE=angryssg;301461]I dont't think GW starts Rookies unless he has no choice ir they really grasp the defense anyway. No matter who we draft, they may not start but will get thrown into the rotation. I do not believe that any rookie that is added will be the difference between the playoffs and another top 10 pick. So we may be waiting anyway.[/QUOTE]

I think Landry would be like Taylor, starting within a couple of weeks.

Re: Is trading down worth giving up the chance to take a future Pro-Bowler
 

[quote=SmootSmack;301463]I think Landry would be like Taylor, starting within a couple of weeks.[/quote]

In your opinion do you think that we can afford to go with Landry and bypass getting another defensive lineman, which everyone claims that we need?

Re: Is trading down worth giving up the chance to take a future Pro-Bowler
 

[QUOTE=angryssg;301464]In your opinion do you think that we can afford to go with Landry and bypass getting another defensive lineman, which everyone claims that we need?[/QUOTE]

No. I think Landry is awesome (just like I think CJ is) but you build in the trenches. We need to strengthen that D-line. But when you talk about a guy like Okoye, or even Anderson or J. Moss I think you're looking at someone who probably won't be a major factor in 2007 (but could be for years to come). In the long run, that'll be more beneficial than Landry starting right away in 2007.

I just wonder if fans have the patience for that.

Re: Is trading down worth giving up the chance to take a future Pro-Bowler
 

[quote=SmootSmack;301454]Okoye is still very much a project. I could see him sitting for much of the year, much like Rocky did this previous season and Campbell the season before.

Can Redskins fans accept that?[/quote]I personally could live with that. He's like any other rookie after all.

I don't neccessarily agree with this assessment. He's young, but he's got the college experience. If he is the prospect I think he is, why would he be any slower to develop than any other prospect?

The key to Okoye is that hes 19, but that he also is well versed in the college game. I think he's ready to go when called on. Just keep in mind, that like every other college draftable player, he starts as a rookie.

Re: Is trading down worth giving up the chance to take a future Pro-Bowler
 

[quote=SmootSmack;301472]No. I think Landry is awesome (just like I think CJ is) but you build in the trenches. We need to strengthen that D-line. But when you talk about a guy like Okoye, or even Anderson or J. Moss I think you're looking at someone who probably won't be a major factor in 2007 (but could be for years to come). In the long run, that'll be more beneficial than Landry starting right away in 2007.

I just wonder if fans have the patience for that.[/quote]

Most want to win now. We are on a 15 year drought minus 2 seasons. The way I look at it Ive alreay waited this long, whats another few years? Just entertain me in between.

Re: Is trading down worth giving up the chance to take a future Pro-Bowler
 

[quote=SmootSmack;301472]No. I think Landry is awesome (just like I think CJ is) but you build in the trenches. We need to strengthen that D-line. But when you talk about a guy like Okoye, or even Anderson or J. Moss I think you're looking at someone who probably won't be a major factor in 2007 (but could be for years to come). In the long run, that'll be more beneficial than Landry starting right away in 2007.

I just wonder if fans have the patience for that.[/quote]This I agree with.

I don't know whether the fans have the patience for this, but if Okoye makes the pro bowl in 2008, I think all will be forgiven. IMO, it doesn't matter who we take, we have to allow at least a year for development. That's why all the Rocky bust talk for not beating out Holdman is downright silly.

No matter who we draft, you won't hear anything from me about their bust potential during their rookie year. You have to see them in their second year before you can even begin to assess what you have in them.

Re: Is trading down worth giving up the chance to take a future Pro-Bowler
 

[quote=GTripp0012;301477]This I agree with.

I don't know whether the fans have the patience for this, but if Okoye makes the pro bowl in 2008, I think all will be forgiven. IMO, it doesn't matter who we take, we have to allow at least a year for development. That's why all the Rocky bust talk for not beating out Holdman is downright silly.

No matter who we draft, you won't hear anything from be about their bust potential during their rookie year. You have to see them in their second year before you can even begin to assess what you have in them.[/quote]

"Whoop de doo Basil, but what does it all mean?" (Austin Powers)

Re: Is trading down worth giving up the chance to take a future Pro-Bowler
 

if you can get 2 starters, as opposed to one pro bowler, then yes(its worth it) and gtripp, we usually agree, but brown really scares me as a player. way too inconsistant

Re: Is trading down worth giving up the chance to take a future Pro-Bowler
 

In my opinion, you go with the stud. I feel that the Redskins needs are being way over blown. How many years did we have a great defense with a line that was simply awful. Guys like Wynn who play great against the run.

I feel we have to go Landry or Okoye at the number six pick. Moving down two spots could cause us to lose both Okoye and Landry even if they're both still there when we pick.

Re: Is trading down worth giving up the chance to take a future Pro-Bowler
 

The other thing is that out of say 8 "elite" prospects maybe 2 will be real pro bowlers, another 2-3 will be good players and the other 3-4 will be average to bust. Maybe trading down gives you a better shot at getting a few good players rather than risking it all on one "elite" player who may end up being no better than players taken a round later. I guess there is no real scientific way to do this. You just have to trust your scouting and evaluating to avoid busts.

Re: Is trading down worth giving up the chance to take a future Pro-Bowler
 

By the way I luike Okoye and he would be the only pick at 6 that wouldn't piss me off. Other than him I think we need to mvoe our pick. I think I'd still rather move the pick but only if we can drop just a few spots and still pick up someone we really like.

BTW...is this the most intersting draft in a while? No one has any idea what direction anyone is really going other than the first pick and there are only 4 more days until the draft. A guy like Russell could not go 1 and drop big time. Thomas..who the hell knows? Who is going to make the biggest push for Johnson? How will Detroit figure out how to screw up this year? What guys will be available at 6 so we can trade our pick? How precipitous a fall does Branch make? I got no answers.

Re: Is trading down worth giving up the chance to take a future Pro-Bowler
 

[quote]By the way I luike Okoye and he would be the only pick at 6 that wouldn't piss me off. Other than him I think we need to mvoe our pick. I think I'd still rather move the pick but only if we can drop just a few spots and still pick up someone we really like.[/quote]
If we stay pat. I want Landry or Okoye. Those guys I feel will both be great players in this league.

Re: Is trading down worth giving up the chance to take a future Pro-Bowler
 

The whole assumption here is that the player we're getting at 6 (whether it be Okoye or Landry) is a pro-bowler in the making. While that certainly seems to be the case based on what we know of them now, it's definitely not an assumption we can just make. Corey Simon was selected at 6 overall, he had a few good years, but in general I'd say he didn't live up to the potential. Throughout history the top of the draft is rife with players who didn't make the pro bowl. There's no telling that Landry or Okoye won't be one of them.

Also, why should we assume that a player we'd get at 12, 15, 18, or 31 wouldn't become a pro bowler? Lots of teams have success with those players. And who's to say we can't get a great player out of a 2nd or 3rd rounder? Portis, Cooley, and Derrick Dockery all came out of rounds 2 and 3.

The whole point I'm trying to make is you might study the players relentlessly, and research them to the point where you think you're absolutely sure who's going to be good and who's not. But the whole point is YOU NEVER KNOW. NEVER EVER EVER.

You can't assume Okoye or Landry will be pro-bowlers. You have to assess your team's overall needs. If you've got more than one hole, as we do, then it makes the most sense to trade down.

Re: Is trading down worth giving up the chance to take a future Pro-Bowler
 

Dlinemen in general scare me. I'd argue they bust more often than WRs in the first round. Lets look at someone many people here was high on, Kenechi Udeze. he has a good line around him, and he played between 85-89% of defensive snaps (dont remember exact #) and he had a total of 0 sacks. Very few defensive linemen taken in the first round seem to do poorly over the last 6 years.

Re: Is trading down worth giving up the chance to take a future Pro-Bowler
 

I want to echo some of SS' and Schneed's sentiments. First, we don't know that ANYONE, even the almighty CJ, is going to be a Pro Bowler. If the deal is right, it could make a lot of sense to trade down and particularly if the other team is willing to give considerably more than the sacrosanct draft pick value chart says we should get (e.g., trade down with ATL for their 1st and a 2nd). Second, I'm not sure that we'd be drafting Okoye to make an immediate impact as much as we'd be drafting him with the expectation that he would become an absolute monster within a year or two. I don't necessarily think he'll sit for a whole year (especially considering his would-be competition), but I don't think anyone is going to put up numbers like Jevon Kearse did in his rookie year.

Re: Is trading down worth giving up the chance to take a future Pro-Bowler
 

[quote=angryssg;301464]In your opinion do you think that we can afford to go with Landry and bypass getting another defensive lineman, which everyone claims that we need?[/quote]


yes i do according to john clayton's pod cast we are going to draft LL if we stay at 6

Re: Is trading down worth giving up the chance to take a future Pro-Bowler
 

[quote=SmootSmack;301454]Okoye is still very much a project. I could see him sitting for much of the year, much like Rocky did this previous season and Campbell the season before.

Can Redskins fans accept that?[/quote]

I couldn't. We need a horse up front that can play right away. Our D-line was as soft as butter last year. All this Landry talk makes no sense to me. Can't Peirson P. play? I know he is coming off a major injury but it seems to me that safety is an easier position to fill than D-line. No pass rush = no pass defense.

I am getting the feeling that our FO/GW thinks that our D-line was not a problem last year.

Re: Is trading down worth giving up the chance to take a future Pro-Bowler
 

[quote=Sheriff Gonna Getcha;301571]I want to echo some of SS' and Schneed's sentiments. First, we don't know that ANYONE, even the almighty CJ, is going to be a Pro Bowler. If the deal is right, it could make a lot of sense to trade down and particularly if the other team is willing to give considerably more than the sacrosanct draft pick value chart says we should get (e.g., trade down with ATL for their 1st and a 2nd). Second, I'm not sure that we'd be drafting Okoye to make an immediate impact as much as we'd be drafting him with the expectation that he would become an absolute monster within a year or two. I don't necessarily think he'll sit for a whole year (especially considering his would-be competition), but I don't think anyone is going to put up numbers like Jevon Kearse did in his rookie year.[/quote]


what about merriman

Re: Is trading down worth giving up the chance to take a future Pro-Bowler
 

[quote=EARTHQUAKE2689;301577]what about merriman[/quote]

Merriman goes right to my point, he was drafted at pick #11.

There's no reason you can't get an impact player at a spot like 11. It's not like pick 6 is the only place we'll be able to find an impact player in this draft. There will be some impact players available at all stages of round 1. It's just a matter of identifying who they are, and being willing to have the patience to let them fall down the board to us. That's certainly the hard part of this whole thing; but trading down would be worth the payoff if it means we have a chance to add 2 or 3 players at positions of need rather than just 1.

Re: Is trading down worth giving up the chance to take a future Pro-Bowler
 

What makes Okoye a can't miss, future Pro Bowler?

Re: Is trading down worth giving up the chance to take a future Pro-Bowler
 

[quote=Mattyk72;301581]What makes Okoye a can't miss, future Pro Bowler?[/quote]

Nothing, and though most don't like Pasquarelli he does have an article on ESPN.com that goes right to this point.

Excerpt:
"Since 2000, there have been 26 defensive tackles selected in the first round and 59 chosen as first-day picks. Only six have played in even one Pro Bowl game, and 15 are out of the NFL entirely right now. The 2001 draft produced five of the six Pro Bowl tackles chosen since 2000 -- Seymour, Stroud, [URL="http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=5466"][COLOR=#000000]Casey Hampton[/COLOR][/URL], Jenkins and Rogers -- and the league might never see such a bounty at the position again."

Full Article:
[url=http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/draft07/columns/story?columnist=pasquarelli_len&id=2844964]ESPN.com - NFL/DRAFT07 - Pasquarelli: Teams struggle to find right inside man[/url]

Re: Is trading down worth giving up the chance to take a future Pro-Bowler
 

By the way, slightly unrelated, but speaking of trading picks, what are the chances that we trade one of next year's picks for some pick in round 2 or 3?

Re: Is trading down worth giving up the chance to take a future Pro-Bowler
 

[quote=Schneed10;301583]By the way, slightly unrelated, but speaking of trading picks, what are the chances that we trade one of next year's picks for some pick in round 2 or 3?[/quote]

I'd ordinarily say pretty high, but we've shown some restraint this year. I think Gibbs will want to do some deals but will be a lot stingier in negotiations & nothing will happen.

Re: Is trading down worth giving up the chance to take a future Pro-Bowler
 

[quote=Schneed10;301583]By the way, slightly unrelated, but speaking of trading picks, what are the chances that we trade one of next year's picks for some pick in round 2 or 3?[/quote]

Man I really hope not... but knowing the way the Skins operate you can't rule anything out.

Re: Is trading down worth giving up the chance to take a future Pro-Bowler
 

[QUOTE=SmootSmack;301472]No. I think Landry is awesome (just like I think CJ is) but you build in the trenches. We need to strengthen that D-line. But when you talk about a guy like Okoye, or even Anderson or J. Moss I think you're looking at someone who probably won't be a major factor in 2007 (but could be for years to come). In the long run, that'll be more beneficial than Landry starting right away in 2007.

I just wonder if fans have the patience for that.[/QUOTE]

That all depends on how well Griffin and Salave'a hold up against the run -- so in that sense, we may not have to wait as long as you think.

Re: Is trading down worth giving up the chance to take a future Pro-Bowler
 

[quote=Schneed10;301583]By the way, slightly unrelated, but speaking of trading picks, what are the chances that we trade one of next year's picks for some pick in round 2 or 3?[/quote] I would guess that will happen if the skins see a guy in the third round that they had rated as an early 2nd rd pick . I imagine if they are very high on a pass rusher who " slips " too far , they might make a trade . Lets just hope we get some impact from our draft this year and some returns down the road !

Re: Is trading down worth giving up the chance to take a future Pro-Bowler
 

[QUOTE=EARTHQUAKE2689;301577]what about merriman[/QUOTE]

Should I name the other 8 billion high draft picks who have been complete busts?

Re: Is trading down worth giving up the chance to take a future Pro-Bowler
 

Nobody can predict the future. Based on what would be best for the team I think trading down and taking Alan Branch would be best. As far as he drops, the farther we go down taking as many picks as we can in the process... Like the ramsey draft. Pick up Brandon Merriweather in the second, then a gaurd in the 3rd. Whether or not we have the discipline to do that is yet to be seen.