The difference between 10-6 and 6-10
 

We're 3 weeks from the beginning of training camp (when we'll have stuff to actually talk about!) and while Redskins Nation is cautiously optimistic, the national publications are unanimously pessimistic. Being a playoff team 2 of the last 4 years proves we're talented. Remaining competitive in 16 of 17 games last year shows we can play with almost anybody in the league.

At the risk of restating the obvious, what do you see is going to make us either successful or a disappointment as we head into camp?? Here's what I am looking for..

-Explosiveness of the offense: Saying that JC has to adapt and become effective in Zorn's offense isn't enough. This is the new NFC East, where offense is king. The Cowboys have the weapons to put up 28-35 points on any given week. If Philly improves as everyone seems to believe they will, McNabb and Westbrook will be as dangerous as ever with the potential to score on any play. I've never been sold on Eli and even still after the Super Bowl, but he has solid playmakers at every position. Our offense needs to be one that's feared, not just a compliment to a strong defense. Ball control and defense don't cut it in the NFL anymore, Campbell needs to throw 25-30 TD and Portis needs 8-12 TD for us to be among the tops in the league.

-A defensive playmaker to emerge: Under Grilliams we were a bend but don't break unit. The problem was, at times we were too pliable and games fell thru the cracks. While we didn't add anything to the defense, we need someone to become that impact player on defense that changes the game. Brian Dawkins, Ed Reed, Troy Polamalu, Shawn Merriman, Lofa Tatupu-these are players that make things happen that significantly change the game, either by scoring points or changing field position. Either Landry or McIntosh needs to step up to be that guy. It's a matter of going from good to great as an individual. If we want to be elite, we need a consistently elite player.

-Zorn's style: Personally I am not really concerned about Zorn as a head coach. He learned at the foot of one of the contemporary great coaches in Holmgren. We've seen Reid, Gruden, Mooch, McCarthy all be successful from his 'tree' and we've read Zorn is a disciple like the rest. What we don't know is does Zorn have the guts of a gambler or the fear of a soccer mom. There were far too many times in the past few years that we squandered 4th and less than 3 with a punt or kicked a FG rather than go for the kill. What we saw last year from the Pats & Cowboys is where the NFL is headed. Going for it on 4th down, putting intense pressure on the defense for 60 minutes, making someone stop you rather than calling off the dogs. Bravado does need to be tempered though. Some stories from Seattle had Zorn wanting to run a lot of trick plays, but Holmgren said no. We'll have to see if he knows the fine line between aggressive and stupid.

Re: The difference between 10-6 and 6-10
 

Paintrain:

Obviously the playcalling and the level of agression in the offense this year will be important. I surely don't want to see the Redskins try to make their mark in the league by running a half-dozen "gadget plays" every game. But I wouldn't mind an offense that tried one or two of them at really unexpected times - and down and distance situations - in a game or two.

Of all the players who look to have the potential to be a "game-changer" of the ilk of the players you mentioned, I think Landry is head and shoulders above everyone else on the squad. That doesn't mean I think he's a lock to achieve the status you described but I think he's the man to do it if anyone is to do it.

It will be good to see Campbell throw 25-30 TDs in a season - whether that is this year or next. I think the key is that his TD/INT ratio has to be high. 25 TDs is great; if they come along with 25 INTs, that's not so great.

So I think it's important for Campbell to throw two-and-a-half times as many TDs as INTs. 20TDs and only 8 INTs may not be the best year in the history of football, but it ain't bad either. Of course, 35 TDs and 14 INTs would be better... :)

Re: The difference between 10-6 and 6-10
 

[quote=Paintrain;455272]We're 3 weeks from the beginning of training camp (when we'll have stuff to actually talk about!) and while Redskins Nation is cautiously optimistic, the national publications are unanimously pessimistic. Being a playoff team 2 of the last 4 years proves we're talented. Remaining competitive in 16 of 17 games last year shows we can play with almost anybody in the league.

At the risk of restating the obvious, what do you see is going to make us either successful or a disappointment as we head into camp?? Here's what I am looking for..

-Explosiveness of the offense: Saying that JC has to adapt and become effective in Zorn's offense isn't enough. This is the new NFC East, where offense is king. The Cowboys have the weapons to put up 28-35 points on any given week. If Philly improves as everyone seems to believe they will, McNabb and Westbrook will be as dangerous as ever with the potential to score on any play. I've never been sold on Eli and even still after the Super Bowl, but he has solid playmakers at every position. Our offense needs to be one that's feared, not just a compliment to a strong defense. Ball control and defense don't cut it in the NFL anymore, Campbell needs to throw 25-30 TD and Portis needs 8-12 TD for us to be among the tops in the league.

-A defensive playmaker to emerge: Under Grilliams we were a bend but don't break unit. The problem was, at times we were too pliable and games fell thru the cracks. While we didn't add anything to the defense, we need someone to become that impact player on defense that changes the game. Brian Dawkins, Ed Reed, Troy Polamalu, Shawn Merriman, Lofa Tatupu-these are players that make things happen that significantly change the game, either by scoring points or changing field position. Either Landry or McIntosh needs to step up to be that guy. It's a matter of going from good to great as an individual. If we want to be elite, we need a consistently elite player.

-Zorn's style: Personally I am not really concerned about Zorn as a head coach. He learned at the foot of one of the contemporary great coaches in Holmgren. We've seen Reid, Gruden, Mooch, McCarthy all be successful from his 'tree' and we've read Zorn is a disciple like the rest. What we don't know is does Zorn have the guts of a gambler or the fear of a soccer mom. There were far too many times in the past few years that we squandered 4th and less than 3 with a punt or kicked a FG rather than go for the kill. What we saw last year from the Pats & Cowboys is where the NFL is headed. Going for it on 4th down, putting intense pressure on the defense for 60 minutes, making someone stop you rather than calling off the dogs. Bravado does need to be tempered though. Some stories from Seattle had Zorn wanting to run a lot of trick plays, but Holmgren said no. We'll have to see if he knows the fine line between aggressive and stupid.[/quote]

[x] insightful post
[ ] worthless thread
[x] good read

Re: The difference between 10-6 and 6-10
 

Great post!

Sean Taylor [B]is[/B] better than any of the guys you listed. Our defense was really good last year. We were good against the run and had plenty of takeaways. As far as offense, we can only hope that Zorn envisions putting points on the board. It doesn't seem hard to do seeing what Spurrier did in his short stint with the 'Skins (who were his playmakers?). When you win games you send guys to the pro-bowl. when your guys go to Honolulu people fear them. Unfortunately those to achievements don't guarantee a ring. You have to respect what Eli accomplished. Marion Barber is overratated. What matters most? I rather rank in the top third in offense and defense and take a healthy starting lineup into the playoffs.

Re: The difference between 10-6 and 6-10
 

[QUOTE=JGisLordOfTheRings;455284]
[x] insightful post
[ ] worthless thread
[x] good read[/QUOTE]


I'll add an Amen to the above!

Re: The difference between 10-6 and 6-10
 

i watched the seahawk wild card game yesturday on nfl network. we came up short on the one play when moss gives up on the ball. that was first and ten skins are winning 14 to 13 and they take it back for the score. game over!! we need a little luck with injuries and set jason loose with his new wide outs who hopefully wont give up on a pass in the playoffs!all moss had to do was tackle him!!!!!!!!

Re: The difference between 10-6 and 6-10
 

Great post Paintrain!

Re: The difference between 10-6 and 6-10
 

Good post. I don't really have much to add b/c you made some great points.

Yes, I do think that Landry and MacIntosh could be 2 players that you see emerge as big time playmakers. That is of course if RM can get healthy which he expects to.

Re: The difference between 10-6 and 6-10
 

i think you had some good points, but the main point that i feel will make or break us this year is the health of our team. I thought we were the best team in the NFC last year at the start of the season, but injuries really hurt us. With question marks on so many players, our team is just a big question.

Re: The difference between 10-6 and 6-10
 

[QUOTE=sportscurmudgeon;455273]Paintrain:

[B]Obviously the playcalling and the level of agression in the offense this year will be important.[/B] I surely don't want to see the Redskins try to make their mark in the league by running a half-dozen "gadget plays" every game. But I wouldn't mind an offense that tried one or two of them at really unexpected times - and down and distance situations - in a game or two.

It will be good to see Campbell throw 25-30 TDs in a season - whether that is this year or next. I think the key is that his TD/INT ratio has to be high. 25 TDs is great; if they come along with 25 INTs, that's not so great.

So I think it's important for Campbell to throw two-and-a-half times as many TDs as INTs. 20TDs and only 8 INTs may not be the best year in the history of football, but it ain't bad either. Of course, 35 TDs and 14 INTs would be better... :)[/QUOTE]

after watching some games from the 90's on nfl net the last few weeks you really notice the impact of all the new rule changes in favor of receivers in place now. back then you could grab or hold a guy for second or two, now you cant even touch the receiver past 5 yards. so i'd like to see the skins adopt an offense where you still run the ball (thats what we do best) but rely on the aerial attack for points. so yeah, a more aggressive approach to play calling would be nice.

go skins!

Re: The difference between 10-6 and 6-10
 

[QUOTE=Paintrain;455272] Being a playoff team 2 of the last 4 years proves we're talented. [/QUOTE]

Then what happened in 2006? Having talent and going to the playoffs don't necessarily go hand in hand. It's certainly tough to make the postseason if you don't have talent, but talented players can underperform (Santana Moss is Exhibit A), injuries can take a toll, and then there's coaching.

Do the national publications have a point when they express doubt that there will be a seamless transition from the Hall of Fame legend Joe Gibbs to the completely unproven Jim Zorn? Couldn't it be argued that we as Redskins fans aren't giving enough credence to this fact?

Also, consider that there have been [U]no significant upgrades[/U] on either side of the ball; Carlos Rogers and Rocky McIntosh are coming back (we hope) from devastating injuries; and we just saw aging, battered, limping and hobbling offensive line get shuffled around week after week with only the [I]hope[/I] that nothing like that will happen again, because, as many people seem to say, Murphy's Law just CAN'T be as bad this year .... right?

Call me a pessimist, and some no doubt will question my status as a "real fan", but is it impossible for anyone else to see how the 2008 season can totally blow up in our face? To me, there are very legitimate concerns everywhere for this team.

Re: The difference between 10-6 and 6-10
 

[quote=Beemnseven;455806]Then what happened in 2006? Having talent and going to the playoffs don't necessarily go hand in hand. It's certainly tough to make the postseason if you don't have talent, but talented players can underperform (Santana Moss is Exhibit A), injuries can take a toll, and then there's coaching.

Do the national publications have a point when they express doubt that there will be a seamless transition from the Hall of Fame legend Joe Gibbs to the completely unproven Jim Zorn? Couldn't it be argued that we as Redskins fans aren't giving enough credence to this fact?

Also, consider that there have been [U]no significant upgrades[/U] on either side of the ball; Carlos Rogers and Rocky McIntosh are coming back (we hope) from devastating injuries; and we just saw aging, battered, limping and hobbling offensive line get shuffled around week after week with only the [I]hope[/I] that nothing like that will happen again, because, as many people seem to say, Murphy's Law just CAN'T be as bad this year .... right?

Call me a pessimist, and some no doubt will question my status as a "real fan", but is it impossible for anyone else to see how the 2008 season can totally blow up in our face? To me, there are very legitimate concerns everywhere for this team.[/quote]

Can't agrue w/that IMO & I think Paintrain essentially speaks to that w/the title of the post. There's often not too much difference between 6-10 & 10-6. Add to that, the div. is really tough this year. I believe it'll be improved over last year w/Philly coming back strong.

Schlereth's pick on espn of 8-8 due to "too many questions" is about as safe yet fair as can be. I feel good overall about our offense for some reason, maybe just because zorn is an O guy, but our D has some age & injury issues.

This team has some things going for it & we've got to be excited about the youth, but you're right, 08 could be a really tough one. Let's give Zorn some time.

Re: The difference between 10-6 and 6-10
 

For me it all starts in the trenches. I know it's cliche, but check out the Skins history. The staple of their 3 Superbowl wins was the OL and DL. If the OL stays healthy it could be dominant (aging starters or not, Buges is the master at maximizing talent). The DL should be much improved and appears to have some decent depth (watch out for Montgomery and Wilson this season). The line controls the game on both sides of the ball. For me, THAT is the difference between 10-6 and 6-10.

Re: The difference between 10-6 and 6-10
 

[quote=SkinzzFan;455823]For me it all starts in the trenches. I know it's cliche, but check out the Skins history. The staple of their 3 Superbowl wins was the OL and DL. If the OL stays healthy it could be dominant (aging starters or not, Buges is the master at maximizing talent). The DL should be much improved and appears to have some decent depth (watch out for Montgomery and Wilson this season). The line controls the game on both sides of the ball. For me, THAT is the difference between 10-6 and 6-10.[/quote]I love our DL as much as I love your sig! This year will be, "I love my [B]cornerback[/B]". [sniff sniff].

Re: The difference between 10-6 and 6-10
 

I'm not much for the West Coast Offense except to say that it severely diluted what Art Monk accomplished in 1984. Thank God that has been rectified.

I will be looking for that run game to spite the dink 'n dunk passing game. Something along the lines of what Sean Alexander was in '03-'05 until we ended his career. I think that is what will make Zorn a good to great coach. In fact, it would be cool if he could develop an effective heavy package, using those big receivers, JC could option into when short yardage was all that was needed.

Re: The difference between 10-6 and 6-10
 

It all starts up front my friends. If the offensive line stays healthy this year we will make the playoffs. If not we won't.

Re: The difference between 10-6 and 6-10
 

I know that I'm stating the obvious, but if Landry is going to be our playmaker on defense, he needs to stop getting those taunting/late hit penalties and grow up. He does have the talent to be that playmaker that can change the game.

Re: The difference between 10-6 and 6-10
 

[QUOTE=Jacobylookalike;456614]I'm not much for the West Coast Offense except to say that it severely diluted what Art Monk accomplished in 1984. Thank God that has been rectified.

I will be looking for that run game to spite the dink 'n dunk passing game. Something along the lines of what Sean Alexander was in '03-'05 until we ended his career. I think that is what will make Zorn a good to great coach. [b] In fact, it would be cool if he could develop an effective heavy package, using those big receivers, JC could option into when short yardage was all that was needed.[/b][/QUOTE]
I'd rather see a jumbo light package with 2 TE (Cooley, Davis, Yoder) and 3 RB (Portis, Betts & Sellars), that'd screw the defense up.. They'd send in the goal-line defense, then Cooley and Davis could split out wide, Portis and Betts in the slots and Sellars at TE.. Talk about a D. coordinator crapping his shorts with his LB matched up in space with that corp? A coach would burn a time out instantly!

Re: The difference between 10-6 and 6-10
 

Dyslexia?

Re: The difference between 10-6 and 6-10
 

I think it all depends on how quickly Jason Campbell learns the system

Re: The difference between 10-6 and 6-10
 

[QUOTE=Paintrain;456712]I'd rather see a jumbo light package with 2 TE (Cooley, Davis, Yoder) and 3 RB (Portis, Betts & Sellars), that'd screw the defense up.. They'd send in the goal-line defense, then Cooley and Davis could split out wide, Portis and Betts in the slots and Sellars at TE.. Talk about a D. coordinator crapping his shorts with his LB matched up in space with that corp? A coach would burn a time out instantly![/QUOTE]

Paintrain, you just turned that play into a thinking man's game! I hope JZ picks a spot to do just that!

Re: The difference between 10-6 and 6-10
 

[QUOTE=SBXVII;456752]Dyslexia?[/QUOTE]

Very ogod post!

Re: The difference between 10-6 and 6-10
 

Good thread.

The difference between 6-10 and 10-6 this year may be a coach who is used to having division games be the easy ones. Going to Philly aint like going to Pheonix. That sounded somewhat Han Soloesque I think.

Re: The difference between 10-6 and 6-10
 

[quote=Beemnseven;455806]Then what happened in 2006? Having talent and going to the playoffs don't necessarily go hand in hand. It's certainly tough to make the postseason if you don't have talent, but talented players can underperform (Santana Moss is Exhibit A), injuries can take a toll, and then there's coaching.

Do the national publications have a point when they express doubt that there will be a seamless transition from the Hall of Fame legend Joe Gibbs to the completely unproven Jim Zorn? Couldn't it be argued that we as Redskins fans aren't giving enough credence to this fact?

Also, consider that there have been [U]no significant upgrades[/U] on either side of the ball; Carlos Rogers and Rocky McIntosh are coming back (we hope) from devastating injuries; and we just saw aging, battered, limping and hobbling offensive line get shuffled around week after week with only the [I]hope[/I] that nothing like that will happen again, because, as many people seem to say, Murphy's Law just CAN'T be as bad this year .... right?

Call me a pessimist, and some no doubt will question my status as a "real fan", but is it impossible for anyone else to see how the 2008 season can totally blow up in our face? To me, there are very legitimate concerns everywhere for this team.[/quote]Totally blow up? Almost certainly not, assuming that's referring to a 4 or fewer win season.

Too many veteran players we can rely on for that to happen. As much as we need Campbell to break out to make a playoff run, he would have to be substantially worse than his prior season and a half for us to totally collapse.

Portis figures to have a rebound year of sorts, so theres that, and although the pass defense is only one year removed from being the worst pass d of the last ten years, it's a pretty safe bet that they will finish somewhere in the top 20. On third downs alone, the team figures to improve somewhat simply because Grilliams' schemes were pretty historically bad at preventing third down conversions.

So even though I think 8-8 would be somewhat optimistic thinking, I would think 3-13 or 4-12 would be pretty downright weak predictions. I mean, we play the Lions, Browns, and Niners for crying out loud, and though I'm not going to use the phrasing "automatic win" (because such a thing doesn't exist in the NFL), even at our worst, we'd be favored to beat those teams.

Re: The difference between 10-6 and 6-10
 

[QUOTE=GTripp0012;456838]Totally blow up? Almost certainly not, assuming that's referring to a 4 or fewer win season.

[B]Too many veteran players we can rely on for that to happen. [/B] As much as we need Campbell to break out to make a playoff run, he would have to be substantially worse than his prior season and a half for us to totally collapse.

Portis figures to have a rebound year of sorts, so theres that, and although the pass defense is only one year removed from being the worst pass d of the last ten years, it's a pretty safe bet that they will finish somewhere in the top 20. On third downs alone, the team figures to improve somewhat simply because Grilliams' schemes were pretty historically bad at preventing third down conversions.

So even though I think 8-8 would be somewhat optimistic thinking, I would think 3-13 or 4-12 would be pretty downright weak predictions. I mean, we play the Lions, Browns, and Niners for crying out loud, and though I'm not going to use the phrasing "automatic win" (because such a thing doesn't exist in the NFL), even at our worst, we'd be favored to beat those teams.[/QUOTE]

The Redskins have consistently been one of the teams that has a significant veteran presence over the past five years or so. So much so, in fact, that people often use the term "old" when describing this team. With more of an emphasis on the draft, I expect this to change with more of a blend of savvy vets with young, upstart talent from the college ranks. Nonetheless, all the veterans we've had -- the "locker room leaders" we hear so much about -- gave us a 30-34 record under the guidance of a living legend in Joe Gibbs.

So you'll have to forgive me if I believe the possibility exists that things might not go quite the way most everybody here thinks.

Re: The difference between 10-6 and 6-10
 

All compliments to Paintrain for this high quality thread.

The one thing I'd say about explosiveness on offense is the probability seems low in the first half of the season. We've got rookies in 3 of our 5 biggest receiving targets and a new offense to learn for everyone. Me thinks we'll have to rely on the monster rushing attack for those first 7 to 9 games. Personally, I think CP is more fit for the challenge than anyone is predicting, so my hope is our line can hold together and dominate. In the second half of the season I really hope the chemistry between JC and the supercharged 6 (my lame nickname for Thomas, Kelly, Davis, Cooley, Moss and El) explodes into 3 or 4 TD passes per game.

Defensively I agree Landry should be a gamechanger, but A. Montgomery is more likely to be the other breakout guy (than Rocky). Rocky should be solid @ OLB but only for a few years IMO. His knees will deteriorate quickly. AM learned how to stop the run last year - this year he'll be pressuring the QB too. D-line will be better than most people expect.