Election predictions thread
 

Who is going to win?

What % of the popular vote will the winner capture?

How many electoral votes will the winner take?

Feel free to offer up any other predictions you may have.

Re: Election predictions thread
 

Isn't this a thread we should have on Tuesday?

Re: Election predictions thread
 

You would rather predict the outcome on the day of the election? That's like having a Redskins prediction thread on gameday.

Re: Election predictions thread
 

My friend has already payed out a $20 bet that Obama would win Washington State by 8 points.

It's going to be either close or a blow out. Either way, I would bet Obama comes out on top.

Obama
EV: 300
PV: 51%

Re: Election predictions thread
 

Obama wins by a land slide.

Once the guy gets in office he should be scard I think a lot of people are planning to kill this guy. IT is scary!

I am voting for him and a change! This country needs both really bad.

Re: Election predictions thread
 

obama- 290
obama- 50%

Re: Election predictions thread
 

Obama leads up about 6-7 points right now and I think that's where the popular vote will end up, though I wouldn't be surprised if he takes it by closer to 10 or more. If a record turnout of voters does indeed happen, that can only favor Obama. People aren't going to come out in record numbers to vote for the same old.

Re: Election predictions thread
 

Obama wins. 56% of the popular vote +/- 3 points!

Re: Election predictions thread
 

Those "air quotes" on the "health of the mother" are going "[URL="http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/15074.html"]hurt[/URL]."

Re: Election predictions thread
 

Obama 51%
McCain 48%

Obama @ 286
McCain @ 255

I further predict that the news on all fronts, (Iraq, Afghanistan, the economy, various domestic "crises") will suddenly take a turn for the better after Tuesday. The news broadcasts will re-discover everything that is good about America quite literally overnight.

I also predict that many male Obama supporters will be chagrinned on election night when they are unable to parlay hours of envelope stuffing into action with the cute female Obama supporters.

Things will pretty much stay the same for the vast majority of us.

This forum will return to late night discussions about television shows, hot supermodels, monkeys that throw their own crap, and the occasional bleg for advice on car-buying, computer troubleshooting, and interior decorating.

Oh, and Keith Olbermann's ratings will start dying a long, slow death as the the political fad dies and young people flip to "Gossip Girl" and "So You Want to be an Albino Stripper".

Re: Election predictions thread
 

[quote=70Chip;495634]Obama 51%
McCain 48%

Obama @ 286
McCain @ 255

I further predict that the news on all fronts, (Iraq, Afghanistan, the economy, various domestic "crises") will suddenly take a turn for the better after Tuesday. The news broadcasts will re-discover everything that is good about America quite literally overnight.

I also predict that many male Obama supporters will be chagrinned on election night when they are unable to parlay hours of envelope stuffing into action with the cute female Obama supporters.

Things will pretty much stay the same for the vast majority of us.

[B]This forum will return to late night discussions about television shows, hot supermodels, monkeys that throw their own crap, and the occasional bleg for advice on car-buying, computer troubleshooting, and interior decorating. [/B]

Oh, and Keith Olbermann's ratings will start dying a long, slow death as the the political fad dies and young people flip to "Gossip Girl" and "So You Want to be an Albino Stripper".[/quote]

How I long for those days

Re: Election predictions thread
 

Obama has been the barer of bad new of late, I didn't like his infomercial that much for reason. I'll go ahead and agree that everything will seem peachy in the world if he is elected. I'm sure the Republicans will take the baton in a year or so.

Re: Election predictions thread
 

McCain wins by a slim margin in electorial votes but may lose the popular vote by a slim margin. We have turmoil in the streets and the lawers start filing their lawsuits. Or Obama blows McCain right out of the water and what 70chip said will happen except wall street will take a downward turn. So I saying I really have no clue but my predictions of what happens after the election I stand by.

Re: Election predictions thread
 

McCain will win by at least 5-6% and by over 100 EC votes.

The fact that Obama is not up by at LEAST 10 points in the polls is bad, bad news to his campaign since polls are always weighted in Democrats' favors. Remember how Kerry was up last time and lost? Gore? Even McGovern had a lead over Reagan a month out. :rofl:

The lead has been rapidly shrinking for Obama this week as the pollsters adjust to try to salvage credibility.

[URL="http://hughhewitt.townhall.com/blog/g/ff2dbb51-f269-4ff2-a82d-e4f6120ef228"]Choosing Prosperity and Strength: The Polls Move Towards McCain[/URL]
[url=http://hughhewitt.townhall.com/blog/g/ff2dbb51-f269-4ff2-a82d-e4f6120ef228]Townhall.com::Blog[/url]

In my state, PA, a few days ago, Obama was up by 10-12 points.

now:
[QUOTE][url=http://thepage.time.com/2008/10/30/pennsylvania-hope-for-mccain/]The Page - by Mark Halperin - TIME[/url]
[B]Pennsylvania is now within the MOE

[/B]NBC/Mason Dixon Poll : Obama 47, McCain 43, Undecided 9

Dates conducted: Oct. 27-28. Error margin: 4 points.
[/QUOTE]


Also, early voting SHOCKINGLY has been in favor of McCain and independent "undecided" voters are almost all doing to McCain.

Re: Election predictions thread
 

hahaaaa I love the last two predictions. Almost as hilarious as bill o'reilly's electoral map

Re: Election predictions thread
 

[IMG]http://img.skitch.com/20081026-x2im57n1u5csefs549hyman3qg.jpg[/IMG]

Re: Election predictions thread
 

[quote=hooskins;495650]hahaaaa I love the last two predictions. Almost as hilarious as bill o'reilly's electoral map[/quote]

Obama's arrogance of proclaiming himself the next President, already planning his transition, even doing a Hollywood-produced commercial with him in a room very similar to the Oval Office is also going to contribute to his loss.

He has his followers convinced he can't lose because he doesn't believe he can.

There will be riots. :D

Re: Election predictions thread
 

[quote=Buster;495657]Obama's arrogance of proclaiming himself the next President, already planning his transition, even doing a Hollywood-produced commercial with him in a room very similar to the Oval Office is also going to contribute to his loss.

He has his followers convinced he can't lose because he doesn't believe he can.

[B]There will be riots.[/B] :D[/quote]

I'm glad your happy about that.

Re: Election predictions thread
 

[quote=Buster;495648]McCain will win by at least 5-6% and by over 100 EC votes.

The fact that Obama is not up by at LEAST 10 points in the polls is bad, bad news to his campaign since polls are always weighted in Democrats' favors. Remember how Kerry was up last time and lost? Gore? Even McGovern had a lead over Reagan a month out. :rofl:

The lead has been rapidly shrinking for Obama this week as the pollsters adjust to try to salvage credibility.

[URL="http://hughhewitt.townhall.com/blog/g/ff2dbb51-f269-4ff2-a82d-e4f6120ef228"]Choosing Prosperity and Strength: The Polls Move Towards McCain[/URL]
[URL="http://hughhewitt.townhall.com/blog/g/ff2dbb51-f269-4ff2-a82d-e4f6120ef228"]Townhall.com::Blog[/URL]

[B]In my state, PA, a few days ago, Obama was up by 10-12 points.[/B]
now:



Also, early voting SHOCKINGLY has been in favor of McCain and independent "undecided" voters are almost all doing to McCain.[/quote]
i just checked the latest gallup poll, and obama is up 11 points. thats was around lunch time. its all in what poll you look at

Re: Election predictions thread
 

[url=http://www.reuters.com/article/vcCandidateFeed7/idUSN2950447220081030]POLL-Obama takes 7-point lead on McCain | Reuters[/url]

Re: Election predictions thread
 

[quote=dmek25;495679]i just checked the latest gallup poll, and obama is up 11 points. thats was around lunch time. its all in what poll you look at[/quote]
Their traditional pole most use is around 3% which is through the 28th. Maybe you have a more updated pole.
[url=http://www.gallup.com/poll/election2008.aspx]2008 US (United States) Presidential Election and Candidate Coverage -- Gallup.com[/url]

Re: Election predictions thread
 

[quote=firstdown;495693]Their traditional pole most use is around 3% which is through the 28th. Maybe you have a more updated pole.
[URL="http://www.gallup.com/poll/election2008.aspx"]2008 US (United States) Presidential Election and Candidate Coverage -- Gallup.com[/URL][/quote]

It says 5 - 7% right now

Re: Election predictions thread
 

sorry, i was talking about Penn. Buster and my home town

Re: Election predictions thread
 

If McCain wins it's because democrats just didn't get out to the polls. But in all reality, I expect Obama to win, though it won't be with my vote.

Re: Election predictions thread
 

Prediction: pain. Obama kicks a late field goal to win 20-17. McCain does his best Wade Phillips impression by being old.

Seriously, Obama wins.

Re: Election predictions thread
 

Either Obama's going to win by a slim margin (less than 5%) or he's going to win by more than expected (I'd say by over 7-8%).

Everyone pretty much knows Black people are going to go out in droves, moreso than 2004. I'm hoping that will be enough to tip him over..

I mean my sig link won't make anymore sense if he loses... :(

Re: Election predictions thread
 

[quote=Mattyk72;495665]I'm glad your happy about that.[/quote]

I wouldn't mind it. Beating up a pretentious Republican might make me happy? Whoooo knows! It could be an effective therapy technique!

(Note: All Republicans are not pretentious)

Re: Election predictions thread
 

[quote=DynamiteRave;495740]Either Obama's going to win by a slim margin (less than 5%) or he's going to win by more than expected (I'd say by over 7-8%).

Everyone pretty much knows Black people are going to go out in droves, moreso than 2004. I'm hoping that will be enough to tip him over..

I mean my sig link won't make anymore sense if he loses... :([/quote]
I think if he wins the increase in turn out in the black vote will show to be the margin of victory. Who really knows its all just one big halfway educated guess.

Re: Election predictions thread
 

[quote=firstdown;495744]I think if he wins the increase in turn out in the black vote will show to be the margin of victory. [B]Who really knows its all just one big halfway educated guess.[/B][/quote]

Yep. That's politics for ya.

Personally, I just want Tuesday to come and go. So these boards can go back to, like 70Chip said, models and monkey's throwing crap. Those were the good old days.

Re: Election predictions thread
 

I thopught this was interesting ... the guy is in baseball stats so I thought it was fitting, hes got 344 to 193
[IMG]http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_5ieXw28ZUpg/SQks0JhKnYI/AAAAAAAAAgM/JkcyS93Myfk/S1600-R/1029_scenario.png[/IMG]
[url=http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/]FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right[/url]

Re: Election predictions thread
 

I thought this was interesting ... the guy is in baseball stats so I thought it was fitting, hes got 344 to 193 for Obama
[IMG]http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_5ieXw28ZUpg/SQks0JhKnYI/AAAAAAAAAgM/JkcyS93Myfk/S1600-R/1029_scenario.png[/IMG]
[url=http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/]FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right[/url]

Re: Election predictions thread
 

[quote=NM Redskin;495749]I thought this was interesting ... the guy is in baseball stats so I thought it was fitting, hes got [B]344 to 193 for Obama[/B]
[IMG]http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_5ieXw28ZUpg/SQks0JhKnYI/AAAAAAAAAgM/JkcyS93Myfk/S1600-R/1029_scenario.png[/IMG]
[URL="http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/"]FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right[/URL][/quote]

That seems huge. As much as I'd like to see that, I think it's gonna be a bit closer than that.

Re: Election predictions thread
 

[quote=TheMalcolmConnection;495720]Prediction: pain. Obama kicks a late field goal to win 20-17. McCain does his best Wade Phillips impression by being old.

Seriously, Obama wins.[/quote]

LOL. Maybe we'll have another election gameday thread

[url]http://www.thewarpath.net/parking-lot/3542-the-offical-2004-election-thread-9.html[/url]

Re: Election predictions thread
 

Funny to see some Obama mentions in that thread

Re: Election predictions thread
 

[quote=SmootSmack;495752]LOL. Maybe we'll have another election gameday thread

[URL]http://www.thewarpath.net/parking-lot/3542-the-offical-2004-election-thread-9.html[/URL][/quote]

It would be nice to have a combined "We're 7-2!!!/Election Gameday Thread".

So money!

Re: Election predictions thread
 

[quote=dmek25;495679]i just checked the latest gallup poll, and obama is up 11 points. thats was around lunch time. its all in what poll you look at[/quote]

The poll I just checked said Nader is in the lead with a commanding 63% (plus or minus 63%.)

Re: Election predictions thread
 

obama wins period....

Re: Election predictions thread
 

we need some change that is for sure i just hope obama listens to his experts like clinton did and get us out of this mess that bush made.mcCain has very little chance.but i will vote for him anyway

Re: Election predictions thread
 

[URL="http://www.gallup.com/poll/111679/Gallup-Daily-Obamas-Lead-Widens-Some-All-Bases.aspx"]Obama advances to 8-point lead among “traditional likely voters”[/URL]

The political landscape could be improving for Barack Obama in the waning days of the campaign. [URL="http://www.gallup.com/tag/Gallup%2bDaily.aspx"][COLOR=#0000ff]Gallup Poll Daily tracking[/COLOR][/URL] from Oct. 28-30 shows him with an eight percentage point lead over John McCain among [URL="http://www.gallup.com/poll/111124/Gallup-Daily-Likely-Voters-Traditional.aspx"][COLOR=#0000ff]traditional likely voters[/COLOR][/URL] -- 51% to 43% -- his largest margin to date using this historical Gallup Poll voter model.

Obama's current 11-point lead over McCain among all registered voters -- 52% to 41% -- is up from an eight-point lead in yesterday's report, and ties his highest advantage on this basis, last recorded 10 days ago. (To view the complete trend since March 7, 2008, [URL="http://www.gallup.com/poll/107674/Gallup-Daily-Election-2008.aspx"][COLOR=#0000ff]click here[/COLOR][/URL].)

Re: Election predictions thread
 

[quote=70Chip;495634]Obama 51%
McCain 48%

Obama @ 286
McCain @ 255

I further predict that the news on all fronts, (Iraq, Afghanistan, the economy, various domestic "crises") will suddenly take a turn for the better after Tuesday. The news broadcasts will re-discover everything that is good about America quite literally overnight.

I also predict that many male Obama supporters will be chagrinned on election night when they are unable to parlay hours of envelope stuffing into action with the cute female Obama supporters.

Things will pretty much stay the same for the vast majority of us.

This forum will return to late night discussions about television shows, hot supermodels, monkeys that throw their own crap, and the occasional bleg for advice on car-buying, computer troubleshooting, and interior decorating.

Oh, and Keith Olbermann's ratings will start dying a long, slow death as the the political fad dies and young people flip to "Gossip Girl" and "So You Want to be an Albino Stripper".[/quote]

70, you're pretty much on point with your predictions except for the part about making out with the cute female supporters: