2009 Draft Position & Who to Root for Sunday
 

It's ALREADY that time of season for us Redskin fans again. The time for Christmas wishes and looking forward to the NFL draft, not our upcoming playoff matchup.

Since I am sure that many here are wandering where exactly we will be selecting in the 1st round... I decided to take a look at the scenerios leading up to Sundays game in SF.

Basically, depending what happens Sunday, we could draft as high as 13th, but that is unlikely as we would have to lose, the Bills defeat the Patriots, the Saints defeat the Panthers, and the Texans defeat the Bears.

The lowest we could draft is 18th. This happens if we win, the Cowboys defeat the Eagles, the Bears DON'T make the playoffs, and the Jets lose to the Dolphins. This seems a lot more likely.

I wanted to point out for everyone which games will have an effect on our position between 15th and 18th (our most likely landing spot)....

* [B]We want the Bears to win[/B] (vs Texans) [B]& the Vikings to lose[/B] (to G-Men), because the Bears will draft ahead of us if they don't make playoffs, whereas, the Vikings would still draft after us if they don't make it.

* [B]We want the Jets to win[/B] (over Dolphins) as they would draft ahead of us if we finish tied at 9-7 (due to strength of schedule). FYI, whoever doesn't make playoffs between Miami, NE, and Balt. automatically will draft after us as they all have 10 wins.

* [B]We want the Eagles to win[/B] over Dallas (as if we needed MORE reason!) because if they lose they will draft before us (8-7-1 is worse thatn 9-7). FYI, whoever doesn't make playoffs between Dallas (Lions will be USING their pick from a trade) & Tampa will draft after us due to their sos being higher.

If these 4 things happen, and we win, we will have the 15th selection in the upcoming draft.

Basically, each of those "scenarios" constitutes a slot for us in the draft.

So, somewhere between 15 & 18 seems most likely, but if you REALLY care about a couple of slots (us picking 13th), then your Christmas wish is for us to lose, etc. noted above...

HAPPY HOLIDAYS!

OH... And I wanted to point out what I thought was interesting when looking at this....

The Detroit Lions have, by far, the toughest SOS of anyone in football at .573, whereas the Tennessee Titans have, by far, the easiest SOS at .433.... just an extra nugget there.

Re: 2009 Draft Position & Who to Root for Sunday
 

I also read somewhere that if we lose and finish last in the division, we get to play the Lions on the road and the Seahawks at home next year. If we win, we have to play two much tougher opponents - cant remember who they were, but it was something like Colts at Home, Steelers on the road...
it made me kinda hope we lose, so we have an easier schedule next year.

Re: 2009 Draft Position & Who to Root for Sunday
 

That's a great point about next year's schedule... like I said in another post, I am not on the bandwagon saying finishing 9-7 is such a big deal/great thing.

Re: 2009 Draft Position & Who to Root for Sunday
 

I understand it's perfectly rational to lay out these scenarios. I also understand the longer term benefit (next year's schedule, draft position) if the Redskins lose. I especially understand how it makes even more sense to look at it this way since we've been eliminated from the playoffs.

However, I cannot, and will not EVER cheer for the Redskins to lose. Plain and simple.

HAIL.

Re: 2009 Draft Position & Who to Root for Sunday
 

[quote=BigHairedAristocrat;515317]I also read somewhere that if we lose and finish last in the division, we get to play the Lions on the road and the Seahawks at home next year. If we win, we have to play two much tougher opponents - cant remember who they were, but it was something like Colts at Home, Steelers on the road...
it made me kinda hope we lose, so we have an easier schedule next year.[/quote]


there is no way we can play the colts and steelers in the same regular season as they are in different divisions and we just played the AFC North this season more than likely we will face the AFC west next season

Re: 2009 Draft Position & Who to Root for Sunday
 

[quote=EARTHQUAKE2689;515325]there is no way we can play the volts and steelers in the same regular season as they are in different divisions and we just played the AFC North this season [B]more than likely we will face the AFC west next season[/B][/quote]

We do play the AFC West next season. It rotates. in '06 we played the AFC South, last year the AFC East, this year AFC North, next year AFC West. Last time we played the Chargers was when LT ripped off that sick run to beat us at FedEx in OT back in '05. :(

We went 0-4 that year against the AFC.

Re: 2009 Draft Position & Who to Root for Sunday
 

More FYI...

From what I read & understand...

* The last place team (if we lose) from NFC East will play at Detroit Lions and at home against the St. Louis Rams (wow that's be weird... identical to this year)

* The 3rd place team (if we win) will play at Green Bay Packers and at home against Seattle Seahawks

to me .... that's a HUGE difference, because of 2 things...

1) Obviously, we would have an easier schedule (Lions instead of Packers jumps out!) by losing & finishing last...

2) If we win Sunday and Dallas loses, THEY would be last place in division, meaning THEY would get to play Lions/Rams!! If we win & Dallas wins, then Eagles would play Rams/Lions.


Oh... Here is our exact schedule:

[B]Home[/B]: Dallas, Philadelphia, NYG, Saints, Buccaneers, Broncos, Chiefs, same place finisher from NFC West

[B]Away[/B]: Dallas, Philadelphia, NYG, Falcons, Panthers, Raiders, Chargers, same place finisher from NFC North

Re: 2009 Draft Position & Who to Root for Sunday
 

At this point all I already look forward to seeing is the Giants getting knocked out of the playoffs. I know I'm fast forward a bit but I can't stand the Giants. And say what you will about Dallas and Eagles. But for me the Giants really get under my skin.(No pun intended) I would like to see the Skins go out winning. If it means a tougher schedule next year, so be it. We are either good enough to beat them or no sence in getting in the playoffs next year. Draft is concerning but to many variables to worry about that. Go Skins!!!!!!!!!

Re: 2009 Draft Position & Who to Root for Sunday
 

[quote=GMScud;515324]I understand it's perfectly rational to lay out these scenarios. I also understand the longer term benefit (next year's schedule, draft position) if the Redskins lose. I especially understand how it makes even more sense to look at it this way since we've been eliminated from the playoffs.

[B]However, I cannot, and will not EVER cheer for the Redskins to lose. Plain and simple.[/B]

HAIL.[/quote]

Could'nt of said it better myself! Win and let the pieces fall where they may. I'm not trying to back into anything. HAIL REDSKINS!!!

Re: 2009 Draft Position & Who to Root for Sunday
 

Well, like I said, in the original post... we can win sunday and still pick 15th. I just wanted to make Sunday more interesting for 'Skins fans by pointing out who else to root for in order to pick up 1 to 3 spots in the draft.

I think the whole playing Lions/Rams instead of Packers/Seahawks IS a bigg deal... especially if we are the ones playing GB/Sea & Dallas is playing Det/StL...

so while I am not necessarily ROOTING to lose, what I REALLY want is to play a bunch of the young guys Sunday...

If we win, good news for the future with some guys that contribute well, if we lose because these guys are starting/getting majority of reps (Rinehart, Kelly, Thomas, Davis, Tryon), it helps us next year with an easier schedule and better draft pick... to me win-win.

Too bad Cerrato totally disagrees (from Wash Post)..

"No longer in the hunt for an NFC wild-card berth, the Redskins could use their final game as an audition for next season, giving rookies such as Rinehart and Tryon playing time with the first team. But with the opportunity to finish with consecutive victories, "we're looking to win the game," Cerrato said. Rinehart "hasn't played yet. It makes no sense to do that. How's that fair to [starting left guard] Pete Kendall? We're not into evaluating, we're into winning the last two games in a row." "

Re: 2009 Draft Position & Who to Root for Sunday
 

[yt]IMk5sMHj58I[/yt]

Re: 2009 Draft Position & Who to Root for Sunday
 

:lol: EXACTLY!

Re: 2009 Draft Position & Who to Root for Sunday
 

[quote=EARTHQUAKE2689;515325]there is no way we can play the volts and steelers in the same regular season as they are in different divisions and we just played the AFC North this season more than likely we will face the AFC west next season[/quote]

I posted a response but it has been covered already so i modified... suffice to say, if we lose to the 49ers Sunday, we basically get two easy wins next year. If we win, its almost assured we get two losses (atleast based on how the opponents played this year... anything can happen in the NFL so the Lions could be the best team in the NFL next year... lol, nevermind thats just too crazy!)

Re: 2009 Draft Position & Who to Root for Sunday
 

[quote=Hail to the Redskins;515314]It's ALREADY that time of season for us Redskin fans again. The time for Christmas wishes and looking forward to the NFL draft, not our upcoming playoff matchup.

Since I am sure that many here are wandering where exactly we will be selecting in the 1st round... I decided to take a look at the scenerios leading up to Sundays game in SF.

Basically, depending what happens Sunday, we could draft as high as 13th, but that is unlikely as we would have to lose, the Bills defeat the Patriots, the Saints defeat the Panthers, and the Texans defeat the Bears.

The lowest we could draft is 18th. This happens if we win, the Cowboys defeat the Eagles, the Bears lose to the Texans, and the Jets lose to the Dolphins. This seems more likely, except for the Bears game, as they are playing to win division & Texans are playing for nothing.

I wanted to point out for everyone which games will have an effect on our position between 15th and 18th (our most likely landing spot)....

* [B]We want the Bears to win[/B] (vs Texans) [B]& the Vikings to lose[/B] (to G-Men), because the bears will draft ahead of us if they don't make playoffs, whereas, the Vikings would still draft after us if they don't make it.

* [B]We want the Jets to win[/B] (over Dolphins) as they would draft ahead of us if we finish tied at 9-7 (due to strength of schedule). FYI, whoever doesn't make playoffs between Miami, NE, and Balt. automatically will draft after us as they all have 10 wins.

* [B]We want the Eagles to win[/B] over Dallas (as if we needed MORE reason!) because if they lose they will draft before us (8-7-1 is worse thatn 9-7). FYI, whoever doesn't make playoffs between Dallas (Lions will be USING their pick from a trade) & Tampa will draft after us due to their sos being higher.

If these 4 things happen, and we win, we will have the 15th selection in the upcoming draft.

Basically, each of those "scenarios" constitutes a slot for us in the draft.

So, somewhere between 15 & 18 seems most likely, but if you REALLY care about a couple of slots (us picking 13th), then your Christmas wish is for us to lose, etc. noted above...

HAPPY HOLIDAYS!

OH... And I wanted to point out what I thought was interesting when looking at this....

The Detroit Lions have, by far, the toughest SOS of anyone in football at .573, whereas the Tennessee Titans have, by far, the easiest SOS at .433.... just an extra nugget there.[/quote]

Well done. I was wondering how this was all going to play out. I was just too lazy to do the homework.

If it were up to me, I'd nominate you for VIP status for this thread.

Re: 2009 Draft Position & Who to Root for Sunday
 

With our cap situtation, wouldn't it make more sense to pick a few spots lower, considering the talent level is roughly the same?

I mean, obviously, if it was a huge issue, we could just skip over a few picks and have a lower slot. But, you know, lots of discussion about the difference between pick 14-18.

Re: 2009 Draft Position & Who to Root for Sunday
 

[quote=BigHairedAristocrat;515365]I posted a response but it has been covered already so i modified... suffice to say, if we lose to the 49ers Sunday, we basically get two easy wins next year. If we win, its almost assured we get two losses (atleast based on how the opponents played this year... anything can happen in the NFL so the Lions could be the best team in the NFL next year... lol, nevermind thats just too crazy!)[/quote]
At this time last year I would have welcomed facing the Falcons and Dolphins in '08. Two easy wins.
An offseason can change a lot.

Re: 2009 Draft Position & Who to Root for Sunday
 

[quote=rypper11;515380]At this time last year I would have welcomed facing the Falcons and Dolphins in '08. Two easy wins.
An offseason can change a lot.[/quote]It can change a lot, but the Lions and Rams happen to be two of the worst teams [I]ever.[/I]

Where as the Dolphins and Falcons last year were merely bad. Dolphins because of a ton of injurys, and the Falcons were playing with dead-weight vets and no quarterback.

Re: 2009 Draft Position & Who to Root for Sunday
 

[quote=GTripp0012;515379]With our cap situtation, wouldn't it make more sense to pick a few spots lower, considering the talent level is roughly the same?

I mean, obviously, if it was a huge issue, we could just skip over a few picks and have a lower slot. But, you know, lots of discussion about the difference between pick 14-18.[/quote]


See, I'm not good with cap numbers, but is there really a huge difference in price for 13th compared to 18th pick? I mean, is 13th that much higher? I don't know much about it...

I can tell you the difference in what you can get between 13th and 18th is this: Last year Branden Albert, the lineman most around here wanted, went 15th. Chris Williams OT went 14th.... and Gosder Cherilus OL went 17th.

Not to say that there is any drop off in talent between the picks, my point is that if we were at 18th pick last year, that's 3 offensive linemen difference (between 13 & 18)

It seems a lot of times to me that the team picking before you always seems to want the same player/position, but you never truly know what you are getting anyway.

Also, it may be easier to trade the 13th pick than the 18th. Like last year, Jonathan Stewart RB went 13th. There is more likely to have a top 10 projected player still be there at 13 compared to 18. But like I said, this is information for those who DO care where we pick, if you don't that's fine.

Oh... GTripp, I totally agree about the difference between playing Packers & Seahawks or playing Lions & Rams. GB & Sea were deep in playoffs last year, StL & Det aren't really close right now.... they are MUCH better targets.

and Beemnseven... thanks a lot for the comments. I like when I can have something to root for in other games so that Sundays are even more entertaining. Plus, I REALLY was wondering how much Sundays results could effect us for the draft & next season!

Re: 2009 Draft Position & Who to Root for Sunday
 

[quote=Hail to the Redskins;515394]See, I'm not good with cap numbers, [B]but is there really a huge difference in price for 13th compared to 18th pick? I mean, is 13th that much higher?[/B] I don't know much about it...

I can tell you the difference in what you can get between 13th and 18th is this: Last year Branden Albert, the lineman most around here wanted, went 15th. Chris Williams OT went 14th.... and Gosder Cherilus OL went 17th.

Not to say that there is any drop off in talent between the picks, my point is that if we were at 18th pick last year, that's 3 offensive linemen difference (between 13 & 18)

It seems a lot of times to me that the team picking before you always seems to want the same player/position, but you never truly know what you are getting anyway.

Also, it may be easier to trade the 13th pick than the 18th. Like last year, Jonathan Stewart RB went 13th. There is more likely to have a top 10 projected player still be there at 13 compared to 18. But like I said, this is information for those who DO care where we pick, if you don't that's fine.

Oh... GTripp, I totally agree about the difference between playing Packers & Seahawks or playing Lions & Rams. GB & Sea were deep in playoffs last year, StL & Det aren't really close right now.... they are MUCH better targets.

and Beemnseven... thanks a lot for the comments. I like when I can have something to root for in other games so that Sundays are even more entertaining. Plus, I REALLY was wondering how much Sundays results could effect us for the draft & next season![/quote]

No there's not. There's no material difference when it comes to cap impact of drafting 13th compared to 18th. It's not something you'd worry about.

Re: 2009 Draft Position & Who to Root for Sunday
 

[quote=Hail to the Redskins;515394]See, I'm not good with cap numbers, but is there really a huge difference in price for 13th compared to 18th pick? I mean, is 13th that much higher? I don't know much about it...

I can tell you the difference in what you can get between 13th and 18th is this: Last year Branden Albert, the lineman most around here wanted, went 15th. Chris Williams OT went 14th.... and Gosder Cherilus OL went 17th.

Not to say that there is any drop off in talent between the picks, my point is that if we were at 18th pick last year, that's 3 offensive linemen difference (between 13 & 18)

It seems a lot of times to me that the team picking before you always seems to want the same player/position, but you never truly know what you are getting anyway.

Also, it may be easier to trade the 13th pick than the 18th. Like last year, Jonathan Stewart RB went 13th. There is more likely to have a top 10 projected player still be there at 13 compared to 18. But like I said, this is information for those who DO care where we pick, if you don't that's fine.[/quote]What Schneed said. It's not a make or break type thing, but it's enough, IMO, to make it a wash whether we pick 13th or 18th. All the unianimously top talents will be gone, and we'll probably still be able to grab one of the best players on our board at any of those slots, assuming we don't trade back (in which case, it might make the big difference).

It's something to keep an eye on. Vinny will try to trade away the pick for veteran talent three separate times, giving us all heartattacks, before the pick is used anyway.

Re: 2009 Draft Position & Who to Root for Sunday
 

[quote=BigHairedAristocrat;515317]I also read somewhere that if we lose and finish last in the division, we get to play the Lions on the road and the Seahawks at home next year. If we win, we have to play two much tougher opponents - cant remember who they were, but it was something like Colts at Home, Steelers on the road...
it made me kinda hope we lose, so we have an easier schedule next year.[/quote]


shouldn't be the Steelers. We'll probably play the COlts next year, but you only play one division cross-conference each year.

Re: 2009 Draft Position & Who to Root for Sunday
 

All this talk about us losing and getting to play "Easy" teams?? I do not get it.. I seem to remember we lost to the Rams this year and we also lost to the Bengals who only had three wins. So do we really want to play the easy teams, as we seem to have a habit of playing down to their level?

Whatever happens happens, but I will never cheer for the Skins to lose.

Also if we had beaten those two bad teams,, guess who would be going to the playoffs this year...

Re: 2009 Draft Position & Who to Root for Sunday
 

[quote=53Fan;515338]Could'nt of said it better myself! Win and let the pieces fall where they may. I'm not trying to back into anything. HAIL REDSKINS!!![/quote]


Screw that( cheering the Skins to lose)!!!!!!!! 9-7 isn't to hot, but it is a marked improvement to last season and will show the folks that keeping Zorn around was warranted. He still needs to do some massive tinkering with his WCO setup though to have a successful '09.

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[quote=Schneed10;515405]No there's not. There's no material difference when it comes to cap impact of drafting 13th compared to 18th. It's not something you'd worry about.[/quote]

Schneedy is right. First rounder is going to cost you some $$$$$$$$$$$$$$, no matter if he is 1st or 32nd. THere will be a difference of course, but you are still going to shell out a big wad of dough for a guy with that first rounder tag on him. You know those agents are going in for the kill then.

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[quote=GusFrerotte;515605]Screw that( cheering the Skins to lose)!!!!!!!! 9-7 isn't to hot, but it is a marked improvement to last season and will show the folks that keeping Zorn around was warranted. He still needs to do some massive tinkering with his WCO setup though to have a successful '09.[/quote]

wtf are you talking about? we finished 9-7 last yr,hows this a marked improvement?

Re: 2009 Draft Position & Who to Root for Sunday
 

Superb thread.

Re: 2009 Draft Position & Who to Root for Sunday
 

[quote=MrJL;515431]shouldn't be the Steelers. [B]We'll probably play the COlts next year[/B], but you only play one division cross-conference each year.[/quote]

Football 101 people. Each team plays 4 games from the opposite conference per year, all in the same division. We play the AFC West next year. We played the AFC South in 2006. We play that division again in 2010.

Re: 2009 Draft Position & Who to Root for Sunday
 

two easy wins? if you recall we lost to the rams and barely beat detroit.

Re: 2009 Draft Position & Who to Root for Sunday
 

[quote=CanadianSkin;515604][B]All this talk about us losing and getting to play "Easy" teams?? I do not get it.. I seem to remember we lost to the Rams this year and we also lost to the Bengals who only had three wins.[/B] So do we really want to play the easy teams, as we seem to have a habit of playing down to their level?

Whatever happens happens, but I will never cheer for the Skins to lose.

Also if we had beaten those two bad teams,, guess who would be going to the playoffs this year...[/quote]

Not to mention the parity in the NFL... See teams like the Dolphins and Falcons. You just never know who is going to drastically improve from one season to the next. This business of rooting for the Skins to lose so we can speculate on possibly having a stronger schedule is flat out stupid IMO.