Failed Completions
 

Aaron Schatz, over at football outsiders, released [URL="http://www.footballoutsiders.com/extra-points/2010/stat-day-failed-completions"]this list[/URL] today of failed completions, which is designed to measure how frequent a quarterback ineffectively dumps the ball off, and not enough yardage is gained to constitute a "successful" play.

As I'm sure a bunch of people (myself included) suspected, Jason Campbell is on the list of top ten quarterbacks in failed completions. He's actually tied for ninth with Peyton Manning with 79 "unsuccessful" completions (24% of his total completions). What's more interesting, to me at least, is some of the players higher up on the list.

Re: Failed Completions
 

If a pass is thrown to a RB for example to avoid a sack, is that considered a failed completion if it doesn't get the desired yardage? Even though it saved a loss? My guess would be yes. So line protection would also play into this stat correct?

Re: Failed Completions
 

very interesting stat. JC isn't in the top10 in rate though, neither are brees or farve.

I would like to see this stat compared w/sack & penalty plays. If a qb is more often facing 3rd & long he'll have more of these of course.

Re: Failed Completions
 

[quote=53Fan;655162]If a pass is thrown to a RB for example to avoid a sack, is that considered a failed completion if it doesn't get the desired yardage? Even though it saved a loss? My guess would be yes. So line protection would also play into this stat correct?[/quote]Yep. Excellent point.

Re: Failed Completions
 

[quote=GTripp0012;655151]Aaron Schatz, over at football outsiders, released [URL="http://www.footballoutsiders.com/extra-points/2010/stat-day-failed-completions"]this list[/URL] today of failed completions, [B]which is designed to measure how frequent a quarterback ineffectively dumps the ball off, and not enough yardage is gained to constitute a "successful" play[/B].

As I'm sure a bunch of people (myself included) suspected, Jason Campbell is on the list of top ten quarterbacks in failed completions. He's actually tied for ninth with Peyton Manning with 79 "unsuccessful" completions (24% of his total completions). What's more interesting, to me at least, is some of the players higher up on the list.[/quote]

i dont know how relevant this is but more than 2,000 of JCs 3600 yds passing came after the catch. that means something like 67.8% of his yards were YAC..... by far the most in the NFL last year.

i dont know how to interpret that 67.8 stat b/c YAC is a good thing, especialy in a west coast type offense. the part that gets me is just how much higher JC's percent of passing yds came YAC compared to any other qb. i would think leading teh league in YAC would be indicative of a proficient offense but after seeing this season im starting to think to much YAC has to be a negative indication of something, too many check downs? i dont know.

Re: Failed Completions
 

[quote=over the mountain;655168]i dont know how relevant this is but more than 2,000 of JCs 3600 yds passing came after the catch. that means something like 67.8% of his yards were YAC..... by far the most in the NFL last year.

i dont know how to interpret that 67.8 stat b/c YAC is a good thing, especialy in a west coast type offense. the part that gets me is just how much higher JC's percent of passing yds came YAC compared to any other qb. i would think leading teh league in YAC would be indicative of a proficient offense but after seeing this season [b]im starting to think to much YAC has to be a negative indication of something[/b], too many check downs? i dont know.[/quote]

Well, when you yac too much it makes your stomach hurt. :)

Good article GTripp, I just don't know how to apply it to come to any conclusions.

Re: Failed Completions
 

Now let's compare offensive lines...Jason Campbell had the worst in the NFL. You can't judge him as being mediocre in stats that don't tell the whole picture. What is more fundamental to a football team, a quarterback or the five men protecting him?

Re: Failed Completions
 

That was really interesting to see the company that he was in. Let's see what the whole 'all he does is dump off' crowd has to say about that.

Re: Failed Completions
 

^^ he does dump off alot, even for a WC style offense imo. check the other qb stats on football outsiders and see where he ranks compared to other nfl qbs there. 13th to 23rd-ish in most of football outsider's weighted stats.

Re: Failed Completions
 

Look at the rate of failed completions. I think that stat tells you more than the total number. Just look at the bums that made that top 10.

Re: Failed Completions
 

[quote=over the mountain;655168]i dont know how relevant this is but more than 2,000 of JCs 3600 yds passing came after the catch. that means something like 67.8% of his yards were YAC..... by far the most in the NFL last year.

i dont know how to interpret that 67.8 stat b/c YAC is a good thing, especialy in a west coast type offense. the part that gets me is just how much higher JC's percent of passing yds came YAC compared to any other qb. i would think leading teh league in YAC would be indicative of a proficient offense but after seeing this season im starting to think to much YAC has to be a negative indication of something, too many check downs? i dont know.[/quote]I can verify the validity of this. Campbell led the league in YAC from his receivers.

Re: Failed Completions
 

[quote=GhettoDogAllStars;655173]Well, when you yac too much it makes your stomach hurt. :)

Good article GTripp, I just don't know how to apply it to come to any conclusions.[/quote]It might not mean anything. Next year's top ten list could be void of 7 or 8 names on this list, including Campbells.

Or it might mean a lot about players who "check down" a lot. It's anyones guess really.

Re: Failed Completions
 

That's some great analysis. JC is really a good QB and I am miffed at how much hate he gets. I wonder sometimes if these people are watching the same game.

Re: Failed Completions
 

[quote=GhettoDogAllStars;655173]Well, when you yac too much it makes your stomach hurt. :)

Good article GTripp, I just don't know how to apply it to come to any conclusions.[/quote]

It means he is a capable reader of what defenses are doing and makes the necessary adjustment. He's not great at it but he is good at it contrary to popular belief. When he dumps it off a high percentage of his dump offs go for a modest gain at the very least and when he passes it to a receiver that receiver is wide open and gets mad YAC. He has done a pretty good job despite not having a decent offensive line, a capable running back, and good play caller for much of the year.

With better personal, coaching, and play calling the sky is the limit for JC.

Re: Failed Completions
 

[quote=saden1;655206]It means he is a capable reader of what defenses are doing and makes the necessary adjustment. He's not great at it but he is good at it contrary to popular belief. When he dumps it off a high percentage of his dump offs go for a modest gain at the very least and when he passes it to a receiver that receiver is wide open and gets mad YAC. He has done a pretty good job despite not having a decent offensive line, a capable running back, and good play caller for much of the year.

[B]With better personal, coaching, and play calling the sky is the limit for JC.[/quote][/B]

I agree

Re: Failed Completions
 

But...but...the Skins should have gotten rid of Campbell for Cutler...

Who leads that list? Oh, damn, that's Jay Cutler's name, but he's a franchise QB with all the tools and a big arm and he takes shots...well, at least he doesn't throw any picks

[/sarcasm]

Re: Failed Completions
 

tell your boy to measure that vs how many completions either scored or were part of a scoring drive

it's not all JC no doubt, but it's not all some pretty number either

Re: Failed Completions
 

[quote=tryfuhl;655287][B]tell your boy to measure that vs how many completions either scored or were part of a scoring drive
[/B]
it's not all JC no doubt, but it's not all some pretty number either[/quote]How would that be relevant to anything?

I'd imagine it would just be very positively correlated to passing attempts. Which means that Campbell would rank in the middle of the league. As he seems to do with everything.

Re: Failed Completions
 

I think if JC had and Oline he might do Somthing but he holds on to the ball for too long

Re: Failed Completions
 

[quote=GTripp0012;655151]Aaron Schatz, over at football outsiders, released [URL="http://www.footballoutsiders.com/extra-points/2010/stat-day-failed-completions"]this list[/URL] today of failed completions, which is designed to measure how frequent a quarterback ineffectively dumps the ball off, and not enough yardage is gained to constitute a "successful" play.

As I'm sure a bunch of people (myself included) suspected, Jason Campbell is on the list of top ten quarterbacks in failed completions. He's actually tied for ninth with Peyton Manning with 79 "unsuccessful" completions (24% of his total completions). What's more interesting, to me at least, is some of the players higher up on the list.[/quote]I read the link and without doing some of my own digging onto stats, one thing pops out at me. The analysis counts "failed completions" as plays of less than 4.5 yd on 1st, 60% on second down (obviously this will vary), and 100% on 3rd or 4th (no problem on that). I would like to see the numbers on just the 3rd & 4th down percentages, I think that's much more telling, because if a team is passing on those downs then the QB is in a position to have to "make a play", good ones do, mediocre/poor ones don't.

My first thought on why Orton, Brees, Manning, and Schaub are up there is their style of offense and lack of emphasis on the running game (yes I know the Saints were 6th in rushing, but they are a "pass first" offense), so a 4 yd smoke, bubble, or whatever, would count as an "unsuccessful" completion, yet it's just as good as a 4 yd run. on first down.

Re: Failed Completions
 

[quote=Slingin Sammy 33;655549]I read the link and wihout doing some of my own digging onto stats, one thing pops out at me. The analysis counts "failed completions" as plays of less than 4.5 yd on 1st, 60% on second down (obviously this will vary), and 100% on 3rd or 4th (no problem on that). I would like to see the numbers on just the 3rd & 4th down percentages, I think that's much more telling, because if a team is passing on those downs then the QB is in a position to have to "make a play", good ones do, mediocre/poor ones don't.

My first thought on why Orton, Brees, Manning, and Schaub are up there is their style of offense and lack of emphasis on the running game (yes I know the Saints were 6th in rushing, but they are a "pass first" offense), so a 4 yd smoke, bubble, or whatever, would count as an "unsuccessful" completion, yet it's just as good as a 4 yd run. on first down.[/quote]

I agree. The failed completion stat seems by far most relevant when on 3rd/4th down.

Re: Failed Completions
 

JC has proven himself as a great average player behind instability with coaches and schemes. Neverending O-line struggles and primadonnas who dont practice and punt returners who dont get him good field position.

JC is the only stable thing we've had in our unstable nation and that is not really that good.

Re: Failed Completions
 

I'm throwing this here:

[URL="http://www.footballoutsiders.com/extra-points/2010/stat-day-quarterbacks-getting-hit"]FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | Stat of the Day: Quarterbacks Getting Hit[/URL]

Basically, it says there were quarterbacks in the NFL who were hit more frequently than Campbell (no word on harder), specifically, Garrard, Schaub, and Warner, with Campbell getting hit roughly as often as Tom Brady or Matt Hasselbeck.

Aaron Rodgers was hit significantly less often, which might surprise some of you, but is quite in line with what my eyes told me, re: Packer games.

Re: Failed Completions
 

Not sure if you can say the sky is the limit, but he is better than folks give him credit for. He needs to step up his game regardless. I know Lewis called the plays the last several games, but still, why did the offense light it up only after the season was lost? Lewis called the plays, but from the same playbook as Zorn. JC seems to fold it up in the big games or in tight situations.

Re: Failed Completions
 

These numbers are REALLY good news for Jay Cutler, who was hit on 8.2% of his pass attempts, but only sacked on 5.9% of them. On the other hand, Kyle Orton was hit on 4.6% of his passes, but nearly was sacked as often as Cutler was (5.1%), so looks like the Denver line was just fine at pass blocking, and Orton just really sucks.

Re: Failed Completions
 

[quote=GTripp0012;658931]
Aaron Rodgers was hit significantly less often, which might surprise some of you, but is quite in line with what my eyes told me, re: Packer games.[/quote]

Someone actually explained the Rogers thing pretty well on ES....I know surprised me to. Apparently though, part of the reason the Pack gave up a league high in sacks was because they employed a lot of down field passes as evidenced by the fact that the Packers had great numbers in the passing game this year, especially against the Cardinals.....Holla! By the same token we were running three step drops and ended giving up 46 sacks. I guess that fares well for the Campbell supporters.

Re: Failed Completions
 

[quote=GTripp0012;658935]Basically, it says there were quarterbacks in the NFL who were hit more frequently than Campbell (no word on harder), specifically, Garrard, Schaub, and Warner, with Campbell getting hit roughly as often as Tom Brady or Matt Hasselbeck.
[/quote]

Crap didn't Jacksonville draft two tackles and sign Tra Thomas. Sorry, but something else has to be going on down there. Either Garrard is holding on to the ball to long or the coaching staff is doing a poor job of calling pass protections, especially considering they do a great job of establishing the run.