Fantasy Tips
 

So I'm playing fantasy football for the first time this year. Yeah, I know. Anyway, I need some tips and advice, because I know practically nothing about building a team, really how it all works, or how to draft players.

Umm...I guess one of the main things I want to know is how many Redskins, if any, I should bother with. I imagine it's hard not to draft players from your favorite team, although I suppose Chris Cooley and maybe Fred Davis wouldn't be bad players to pick.

I'm playing with a few Steelers and Bears fans, so obviously I want to kick their asses and take their money.

Thanks for your help.

Re: Fantasy Tips
 

In terms of the Skins, honestly it pains me to say it but I wouldn't make it a point to draft anyone from the team. I'd take Portis if he was around in around the 4th round; McNabb if he's available in about the 9th-10th round; Cooley around the 11th-12th, maybe earlier, and Moss around the 8th.

Some general pointers: Don't take a backup TE, defense, or kicker and only take a back up QB if you don't think you have a stud (ie Brees, Manning, Rodgers, Brady).
-If you take a RB that is injury prone make sure you get his backup in the late rounds.
-Try to get a top tier WR early rounds because there aren't that many, but at the same time guys always pop up throughout the season (ie Austin) so luck plays a huge roll.

-One thing I want to try to stick to this year is to try to mainly take players from teams that should be good. Steven Jackson is a great running back but the Rams suck so it's hard for him to consistently put up a ton of points.

Re: Fantasy Tips
 

Good point about taking players from suckey teams.

But as a general rule, it seems people take a stud RB or QB with their first pick?

Re: Fantasy Tips
 

My first pick would probably be Archie manning... I used to really get into fantasy football but it started getting to be a problem when some guys I really needed to do great played against WSH. I actually cheered once when Randy moss scored on us bcuz it helped win me my league. I felt horrible lol so I decided to stop playing.

Re: Fantasy Tips
 

[quote=12thMan;723619]Good point about taking players from suckey teams.

But as a general rule, it seems people take a stud RB or QB with their first pick?[/quote]

Yes as a general rule one takes a stud RB or QB with their 1st pick. Depending on who is already taken and if you are in the bottom of the round for your 1st some may even take the best WR. It depends a lot with the scoring and how many RB's and WR's you can start each week.

Also I have done 3 live drafts so far, 1 with majority being Redskins fans and you can get Portis in like round 9 - 11, McNabb about the same rounds and same with Cooley. Those would be the 3 that I would target. However, after seeing that McNabb also is trusting Moss I may take a chance on him. I must stress that I am in no way saying that these Redskins players are must haves. Just some advice...

Re: Fantasy Tips
 

Solid advice in this thread.

Essentially in your 1st 5 picks, you'll want to end up with at least your QB, 2 RBs and 2 WRs, depending on how your league scores. After that, you start filling in the gaps. As AMD said, no need to pick backup TEs, K, or DEF, especially if the bye week is later in the year. No need to waste on that when you can grab late round RBs and WRs. I usually take a backup QB because if something were to happen to your starter, you don't necessarily want to be left holding the Ryan Fitzgerald bag in hopes he can carry your team.

As far as Skins go, as said before, outside of McNabb/Portis/Moss/Cooley, it's a crap shoot at best. They could be had in middle to later rounds in the 2 drafts I've done thus far. A draft with Bears and Steelers fans and you could have any one of them later than normal.

Re: Fantasy Tips
 

IMO getting a QB is the most important position casue they have the ball in their hands the most. I'm in a 4 player keeper league and have had Brady since 05. I can't tell you how many games he's won me over the years by throwing for 300+ yards and a few TD's. Not to mention in 07 when he carried me to the trophy. Get a QB first and foremost.

Re: Fantasy Tips
 

If you're in a 6 pt per passing TD league, 12th, you have to get one of about seven quarterbacks. Manning first, then Brees, Brady, Rodgers, Schaub, Rivers in order of your preference...with Rodgers and Brees going one/two in both leagues, Manning/Brady/Rivers are excellent targets in the first three rounds.

If your league is 4 pts per passing TD instead, you don't have to worry about getting one of the TD leaders at quarterback. There won't be a huge difference between the first and second tier of quarterback. David Garrard, Matt Ryan, Jay Cutler and Donovan McNabb are excellent second tier fantasy quarterbacks (you can wait on second tier QBs until just before the league starts picking it's backups). Tony Romo, Kevin Kolb, and Joe Flacco are going a lot earlier than those guys in most leagues I've been in, but their fantasy value doesn't justify a reach.

The only indispensable fantasy guys are the backs who are expected to get 1,800+ yards from scrimmage. That's Chris Johnson, Ray Rice, and Jones-Drew. Adrian Peterson is a great bet for 1,500 yards from scrimmage if he stays healthy, but doesn't have the same kind of upside as those other three.

After those top RBs are off the board, QBs and WRs are going to drive fantasy teams this year. So get a lot of big name receivers early.

Re: Fantasy Tips
 

Our league is a ten player money league.

Another question, so what advice do you guys have in terms of organizing/preparing yourself for draft day. Say the guys ahead of you grab your first three choices off the board, how should I be prepared to handle that.

Also, what websites do you guys/gals visit to research players, stats, and that sort of thing. Like I know a ton of players off the top of my head, but is there a source where I can find that one obscure name or two that wouldn't jump out to me otherwise.

Re: Fantasy Tips
 

Good stuff guys...good stuff, Gtripp.

Please keep it coming.

Re: Fantasy Tips
 

The important thing about picking a source for your rankings is that it's updated frequently enough to take players who are out for the year with injuries (if Sidney Rice and Ben Tate are on the list, you have a problem with the rankings -- they're old). Other than that, there are no secret sources that people don't look at. Fantasy players tend to know everything about fantasy players.

Honestly, you can go a long way just not drafting players who are "too old" and also not drafting players who are "too young". If you let everyone else in your league draft the guys they think are sleepers and guys on their own teams, you're going to outdraft them -- no matter how much more fantasy experience they may have.

Re: Fantasy Tips
 

[quote=GTripp0012;723640] Adrian Peterson is a great bet for 1,500 yards from scrimmage if he stays healthy, but doesn't have the same kind of upside as those other three.[/quote]

From a pure fan perspective, I'm very iffy on Adrian Peterson this year. He's already logged a ton of carries in his short career and he was pretty ineffective last year down the stretch. It seemed the defenses made him a non-factor as the Vikes pushed into the playoffs. That and his fumbling problem concerns me big time.

Re: Fantasy Tips
 

One thing that helps determine what you should be drafting is the number of teams in your league. Take a look at where certain position tiers start to drop off based on your point system. Then you can kind of calculate what round it would be appropriate to draft a particular player. There is a huge difference between 8 team leagues and 14 team leagues, especially at WR.

As GTripp said, once you get passed (past?) the top 3 or 4 RBs, then the elite WRs and QBs are fair game because the rest of the RB pool is pretty even. If Frank Gore were not injury prone I might would put him in the elite category btw.

Check out the [URL="http://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/"]fantasy football calculator website[/URL]. You can jump in a mock draft that fits the number of teams in your league. It's nice because it gives you a feel for who's going where and in what round. Forinstance, I've got the number one overall pick in my 14 team league. The first pick isn't a big concern for me because obviously I'll get an elite RB, but my 2nd and 3rd pick falls at the #28/#29 spot. At that point, your top tier QBs and WRs are gone. Now I need to decide what spot I'm going for. Certain positions really start to thin out like RB and WR, whereas QB and TE are pretty thick. So, I usually pick two wrs then a QB/TE, maybe a RB. The strategy isn't set in stone. I mean, I'll Forte or Grant as my 2nd RB if they fall to me in rounds 2/3.

That's my two cents.

Re: Fantasy Tips
 

[quote=12thMan;723645]From a pure fan perspective, I'm very iffy on Adrian Peterson this year. He's already logged a ton of carries in his short career and he was pretty ineffective last year down the stretch. It seemed the defenses made him a non-factor as the Vikes pushed into the playoffs. That and his fumbling problem concerns me big time.[/quote]Yeah, every first round back (expect the least-provens Rice and Mendenhall, really) has a ton of wear on their legs, so when you draft a running back at the top, your drafting a lot of risk as well. If I'm taking on all that risk with a top four draft pick, I do want someone with more upside than Peterson.

I also think, for what it's worth, Portis is falling in fantasy drafts because people don't think he's going to get 300+ carries in this offense like he has every other healthy season. But I've seen Larry Johnson and Willie Parker the last few years, and feel safe saying that if he doesn't get to 300 carries, he'll at least get close.

Re: Fantasy Tips
 

It really depends on what position you're drafting, if you have a top 6 pick, you probably want to go RB, if you have a later pick you can go top QB and then with your 2nd pick take a RB. Like someone mentioned before, with your top 5 picks you should have your QB, 2 RB's and 2 WR's. Every draft is completely different and you really never know how people around you are going to draft.

I've been in 2 drafts so far and they went completely unlike anything I expected, in one of them someone actually took Drew Brees at #2 and AP didn't go until the 4th pick(if he's there when you pick, snag him without hesitation).
In the other draft the top 7 QB's were gone by the middle of the 2nd round, basically screwed me and I got stuck with Kolb.

In one of my drafts I was picking 6th and I got Michael Turner, in the other I picked 2nd and took Peterson.

Good Luck!

Re: Fantasy Tips
 

12th, here's a [URL="http://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/draft/807480"]completed mock draft[/URL] from that website. Once again, I think it helps give you a better idea of where and in what round certain players are going.

Re: Fantasy Tips
 

Now I see why people get all caught up in fantasy football.

I think I just had an eyegasm. Great site 724, thanks!

Re: Fantasy Tips
 

[quote=12thMan;723616]So I'm playing fantasy football for the first time this year. Yeah, I know. Anyway, I need some tips and advice, because I know practically nothing about building a team, really how it all works, or how to draft players.

Umm...I guess one of the main things I want to know is how many Redskins, if any, I should bother with. I imagine it's hard not to draft players from your favorite team, although I suppose Chris Cooley and maybe Fred Davis wouldn't be bad players to pick.

I'm playing with a few Steelers and Bears fans, so obviously I want to kick their asses and take their money.

Thanks for your help.[/quote]

12th!

1st year??? Dude, Really?? j/k!

Try your league stats page to guage:

1. Best point producer over all.

2. Best point producers at each position, QB, RB, WR, TE, K, and D.


3. Then, when player injuries are posted, and if one of them is one of your guys, usually first thing Monday, jump on the absolute best available player depending on who is hot! It may be a rook!

Unless you can drop-add on Sunday during games, but that may not be allowed in your team rules.

4. Keep track of best FA players to target just in case one of your guys goes down. Always have a back-up plan.


5. On Redskin players, others have already covered that. It depends on their expected statistical output.

6. On draft strategy, others have already covered that as well. I can add nothing.

It's a game of how you initially draft, who you start, and who you bench, injuries and how you manage them. Pay attention to weekly stats of FAs, and of course, the ball is funny shaped..........................

Re: Fantasy Tips
 

Okay, so our draft is this coming Sunday. A couple of place kickers jumped out me: Rob Bironas and Nate Kaeding.

How high should I take them if they're still on the board? Or I guess another way to put it, how high is too high to draft a kicker?

Re: Fantasy Tips
 

Kickers are last round picks...period....well, maybe next to last round in special situations.

Re: Fantasy Tips
 

[quote=724Skinsfan;723665]Kickers are last round picks...period....well, maybe next to last round in special situations.[/quote]

What he said...

Re: Fantasy Tips
 

[quote=12thMan;723663]Okay, so our draft is this coming Sunday. A couple of place kickers jumped out me: Rob Bironas and Nate Kaeding.

How high should I take them if they're still on the board? Or I guess another way to put it, how high is too high to draft a kicker?[/quote]Agree with the others, Kickers are last round. The difference between a top 3 kicker vs. a top 10 kicker is not a concern. You may wind up switching kickers throughout the year based on the team's offensive performance and weather.

The strategy I've always used, is to try to maximize each postion relative to what's going on in your draft. For example if you're in the third round and the top tier RBs and WRs are gone, but top tier QB is there, take the QB. Don't reach for a RB or WR just to fill the spot on your board. That being said, you can't wait too long for a solid RB IMO. My strategery has always been to get my RBs in the 1st and 2nd rounds unless a superstar QB (Manning, Brees, Rogers) is still there and the top tier RBS are all gone. Genreally I'll go RB - 1st, RB - 2nd, QB or WR, then in the 4th TE (if Gates, Clark, V. Davis are there) if not WR, then best value with WRs and RBs. I'll get my D when value at WR/RB is not real good. What I mean by value is when a player is still on the board for one reason or another when he should've been gone or when the comparative value of the WRs and RBs is lower than the round you're in. It's not a straight stats thing, it's more of a combination of stats and expectations for players/teams for the year.

I'm assuming your league starts QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, K, DEF each week. Also, do you know what your draft postion is yet or will you find out on Sunday?

I bought the ProFootball Weekly and Yahoo Sports Fantasy Football Guide 2010, you should be able to find it almost anywhere. It's nice to have someone else do all your homework for you and a good reference. I don't follow their picks by the book, but it's a good source of info.

Here's some random tips I used this year.

- A lot of folks are saying this year it's all about QBs & WRs, RBs are not as valuable. Folks who draft that way won't win leagues IMO. RBs are still king and will perform more consistently week in, week out. Weather late in the season also will normally help RBs and hurt WRs.

- Speaking of weather, consider that when you draft. It's not a top concern, but think about the league playoffs, make sure you don't have Hines Ward, Greg Jennings, and Tom Brady at home games at the end of the year.

- If you can draft a QB/WR pair or a QB/top TE pair that can win a game or two by itself for you. It can also kill you if the QB has an off day or you've got a pair playing in bad weather. I like to get a pair if I can, the reward outweighs the risk IMO.

- Players I like: Outside of your "Gimmes" (Chris Johnson, Manning, Peterson, Jones-Drew, etc):
Phillip Rivers
Joe Flacco (as a backup QB, and I recommend solid backup QB in round 7 - 9)
Ryan Mathews
Cedric Benson
Jahvid Best - later rounds
Matt Forte - later rounds
Brandon Jacobs - later rounds
Antonio Gates - He should have a strong year with VJ's suspension and holdout.
Jermichael Finley
Vernon Davis

Players I avoid this year:
L. Fitzgerald - no QB = drop in production
Matt Schaub - no Kyle Shanahan = less production
Romo - no explanation needed.
Favre - major injury waiting to happen
Steven Jackson - poor OL = poor production
Beanine Wells - I initially thought he might have a good year, watching the Cards pre-season, I'd stay away.
A. Johnson - his numbers will still be top 10 WR numbers, but don't take him over a solid RB.
Kolb - not jumping on that bandwagon until he shows something.

- I normally stay away from Redskins players altogether unless it is the later rounds and I take a chance. Moss/Cooley/Davis if they are a good value, but no McNabb, no Portis. I took a flyer on Devin Thomas in the later rounds of the Warpath Draft, but it was very late in the draft.

Re: Fantasy Tips
 

Strategy wise get your QB first then your RBs. For the past several seasons the usual strategy was go RB at least the first 2 rounds. The past two years I drafted 3 RBs in the first 3 rounds. Found a gem in Chris Johnson as a rook, but I picked him up off of waivers early in the season. I had AP last year as I had the first pick, but he wasn't so hot and Parker sucked as he got hurt. THe last few years the guy that landed one of the hot QBs won my league. My advice is to stay away from Skins, unless it is Cooley or Portis. McNabb is only worth a backup QB to be honest as he is inconsistent a bit still and that affects Moss' fantasy value. NFL.com and the others of course have all the stud RBs going first in the fantasy drafts, but I think the new thing is go for QB first. Only RB worth going for in the first round is Johnson, maybe AP, but Favre will dominate the Viking O like last season. Gore was a disappointment last season(fantasy wise) and will probably be the same this year. I would get Brady or Brees with your first pick.

Re: Fantasy Tips
 

Also constantly look for upgrades on the waiver/FA lists. Like I said before I was able to pick up Chris Johnson two years ago off of waivers as he was a nobody then. Also, some folks rush the gun and get rid of players too soon. I picked up TO that way a few years ago. The guy dropped him when he(TO) was busy with his antics in Dallas and I picked him up. Helped salvage my season.

Re: Fantasy Tips
 

If it's a money league, be prepared to spend, spend, spend for FA pick ups. The guy with all the bucks won our SB last year. No, wasn't me.

Re: Fantasy Tips
 

[quote=GTripp0012;723640]If you're in a 6 pt per passing TD league, 12th, you have to get one of about seven quarterbacks. Manning first, then Brees, Brady, Rodgers, Schaub, Rivers in order of your preference...with Rodgers and Brees going one/two in both leagues, Manning/Brady/Rivers are excellent targets in the first three rounds.

If your league is 4 pts per passing TD instead, you don't have to worry about getting one of the TD leaders at quarterback. There won't be a huge difference between the first and second tier of quarterback. David Garrard, Matt Ryan, Jay Cutler and Donovan McNabb are excellent second tier fantasy quarterbacks (you can wait on second tier QBs until just before the league starts picking it's backups). Tony Romo, Kevin Kolb, and Joe Flacco are going a lot earlier than those guys in most leagues I've been in, but their fantasy value doesn't justify a reach.

The only indispensable fantasy guys are the backs who are expected to get 1,800+ yards from scrimmage. That's Chris Johnson, Ray Rice, and Jones-Drew. Adrian Peterson is a great bet for 1,500 yards from scrimmage if he stays healthy, but doesn't have the same kind of upside as those other three.

[B]After those top RBs are off the board, QBs and WRs are going to drive fantasy teams this year. So get a lot of big name receivers early[/B].[/quote]


This has become more true over the last several years. More and more teams are going with the duel threat at the RB role and less guys carrying the entire rushing load, so remember that when ranking guys.
Just a couple rules:
1) Never draft a QB in the first round
2)Always draft a K in the last round
3) Stay away from all players with recent injury history ie. missing like 6+ games in the last year or 10+ in the last two.

Re: Fantasy Tips
 

Really it all depends on how league's scoring is set up. You can't definitively say take a QB first, or take a RB first. And of course what slot you're picking in matters too. Not sure I would take someone like Brees with a really high first round pick. In most leagues he's going to be there in round 2, maybe even round 3. And if you're in a points per reception league, a RB that racks up a lot of catches is going to be a high priority.

Re: Fantasy Tips
 

A big hint I always tell folks is watch those bye weeks. You see it all the time where someone drafts a team with no regard to the bye weeks, and they end up with half their starters out for a particular week.

Re: Fantasy Tips
 

What do you do about Sidney Rice? This is my first year also, and I drafted him - had totally missed the injury stuff. So now do I waive him, or just hold him on the bench and hope?

Re: Fantasy Tips
 

[quote=CRedskinsRule;723729]What do you do about Sidney Rice? This is my first year also, and I drafted him - had totally missed the injury stuff. So now do I waive him, or just hold him on the bench and hope?[/quote]

Yeah that sucks. He's not going to even be able to practice until halfway through the season, so best case maybe he's back on the field for 6-7 games at the end. Personally I would dump him. If he was going to be out a month you could justify holding a spot for him, but half the season is too long IMO.

Re: Fantasy Tips
 

[quote=CRedskinsRule;723729]What do you do about Sidney Rice? This is my first year also, and I drafted him - had totally missed the injury stuff. So now do I waive him, or just hold him on the bench and hope?[/quote]
Pick up Bernard Berrian if he's available. Or, see if you can sucker someone into a trade.

Re: Fantasy Tips
 

Well since this is the Fantasy Thread I just had my draft Friday, I picked 6th and this is what I ended up with. We use IDP's by the way.

QB-Aaron Rogers
Carson Palmer
RB-Cedric Benson
Darren McFadden
Jerome Harrison
Cadillac Williams
WR-Greg Jennings
Eddie Royal
Mohammad Massaquoi
TE-Tony Gonzalez
Tony Scheffler
LB-Patrick Willis
Rolando McClain
Brian Orakpo
Nick Barnett
DL-Darnell Dockett
DB-Adrian Wilson
-Roman harper
Erik Coleman
K-Nate Kaeding

Now my WR game is some doo doo after Greg Jennings. I'm gonna grab Kenny Phillips, a D-Lineman from somewhere, and Marko Mitchell out of Free Agency today (starts at 12:00 pm) and I have some trades in the works already but we can't start trading til 12 anyway. What do you all think of my team. Who would you look to dump ? Where can I improve ?

Re: Fantasy Tips
 

[quote=Mattyk;723711]Really it all depends on how league's scoring is set up. You can't definitively say take a QB first, or take a RB first. And of course what slot you're picking in matters too. Not sure I would take someone like Brees with a really high first round pick. In most leagues he's going to be there in round 2, maybe even round 3. And if you're in a points per reception league, a RB that racks up a lot of catches is going to be a high priority.[/quote]

It does, but most leagues now are 4 pts for throwing a TD, so at quarterback it groups them together easier. I feel also the first 2 rounds you gotta go with consistency, meaning I usually dont do 1 hit wonder picks or i rate players higher with longer track records than bust out players the previous year. Last year taking Matt Forte or Steve Slaton in the top ten was a pretty bad move.

Re: Fantasy Tips
 

The value of any fantasy player can be defined as the value he offers over a replacement player. So if you have a 10 team league, and each team starts 1 QB, then the expected fantasy point production of the 11th best QB represents the replacement player.

I'm a data guy and a fairly big geek, so I went through and examined production for the past four years for NFL WRs, RBs, QBs, and TEs. If Brees and Rodgers perform like they did last year, and the replacement player is someone like David Garrard, then Brees and Rodgers are worth the 7th and 8th overall picks respectively. That's using a scoring system of 5 points per TD pass, -2 per INT, 1 point per 25 yards passing. If you can get one in the 2nd round you're pulling a huge profit.

There's no way Peyton Manning should be taken before either of them. He's a better QB, but not more prolific stat-wise.

Other guys I find to be major values given their expected draft position:

- Jermichael Finley - TE Packers; he basically put up 90 fantasy points (1 point per 10 yds rec, 6 per TD) in just 8 weeks starting. Rodgers is making huge strides with accuracy, and he's leaning heavily on Finley. He'll challenge Dallas Clark for top TE honors.

- Santana Moss; There were at least 5 or 6 occasions last year where Moss had burned the DBs badly on deep routes, but Campbell's ineptitude on deep balls failed him. I don't have enough fingers to count the times that Moss threw up his hands in exasperation because he was so open, but was just missed. The guy still gets open with the best of them, but between our line and JC's deep-ball problems, he was underutilized. If there's one thing McNabb can do, it's throw a deep ball. Moss will come back up to 8 TDs. He'll perform like a 4th round WR for a 6th round price.

- Clinton Portis; I just got him in the 8th round the other night. His average draft position at Yahoo is 91st overall. LJ looks like hell, Willie Parker is done. Portis is the only one who can block worth a crap, Shanahan will keep him on the field. He won't be dominant but he'll be a startable 2nd RB, and you can get him after you've filled your other roster spots.

- Jahvid Best - RB Lions; it sure looks like they're going to lean on him really heavily. Everyone knows about Ryan Matthews in SD, he's going in the low first, high second round. But Best can be had in the 3rd or 4th, and it's looking like he'll get just as many carries as Matthews.

- Arian Foster - RB Texans; Ben Tate is out for the year, and the coaches hate Steve Slaton (fumbles). Foster is bigger anyway, he's the natural choice for goalline carries. It's looking like he'll get the starting nod. You can probably get him in the 4th or 5th round. Good opportunity to pull a profit.

Re: Fantasy Tips
 

Mike Williams - WR Tampa Bay

He's a rookie, but already looks like their best receiver. They've got to throw to somebody. Won't be a fantasy starter in all likelihood, but a great guy for depth who you can grab at the end of your draft.

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So wait, I see that MonkFan drafted a few defensive players. I thought (by the way, I have the rules for my league tucked away, I just wanted to stop by Warpath for a primer) if you drafted a defense you had to draft an entire defense, not individual players?

Another question about drafting defensive players, do you draft guys who have the ability to score TD or produce sacks, which in turn gives you points? Is that the idea?

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Damn Schneed my head just exploded, but thanks for the analysis and break-down.


Interesting point about Manning too, because I know everyone will try to take him, AP or Chris Johnson with their first pick.

Seems like most here think Moss and Portis could be good picks in the right round(s).

Re: Fantasy Tips
 

[quote=Schneed10;723758]The value of any fantasy player can be defined as the value he offers over a replacement player. So if you have a 10 team league, and each team starts 1 QB, then the expected fantasy point production of the 11th best QB represents the replacement player.

I'm a data guy and a fairly big geek, so I went through and examined production for the past four years for NFL WRs, RBs, QBs, and TEs. If Brees and Rodgers perform like they did last year, and the replacement player is someone like David Garrard, then Brees and Rodgers are worth the 7th and 8th overall picks respectively. That's using a scoring system of 5 points per TD pass, -2 per INT, 1 point per 25 yards passing. If you can get one in the 2nd round you're pulling a huge profit.

There's no way Peyton Manning should be taken before either of them. He's a better QB, but not more prolific stat-wise.

Other guys I find to be major values given their expected draft position:

- Jermichael Finley - TE Packers; he basically put up 90 fantasy points (1 point per 10 yds rec, 6 per TD) in just 8 weeks starting. Rodgers is making huge strides with accuracy, and he's leaning heavily on Finley. He'll challenge Dallas Clark for top TE honors.

- Santana Moss; There were at least 5 or 6 occasions last year where Moss had burned the DBs badly on deep routes, but Campbell's ineptitude on deep balls failed him. I don't have enough fingers to count the times that Moss threw up his hands in exasperation because he was so open, but was just missed. The guy still gets open with the best of them, but between our line and JC's deep-ball problems, he was underutilized. If there's one thing McNabb can do, it's throw a deep ball. Moss will come back up to 8 TDs. He'll perform like a 4th round WR for a 6th round price.

- Clinton Portis; I just got him in the 8th round the other night. His average draft position at Yahoo is 91st overall. LJ looks like hell, Willie Parker is done. Portis is the only one who can block worth a crap, Shanahan will keep him on the field. He won't be dominant but he'll be a startable 2nd RB, and you can get him after you've filled your other roster spots.

- Jahvid Best - RB Lions; it sure looks like they're going to lean on him really heavily. Everyone knows about Ryan Matthews in SD, he's going in the low first, high second round. But Best can be had in the 3rd or 4th, and it's looking like he'll get just as many carries as Matthews.

- Arian Foster - RB Texans; Ben Tate is out for the year, and the coaches hate Steve Slaton (fumbles). Foster is bigger anyway, he's the natural choice for goalline carries. It's looking like he'll get the starting nod. You can probably get him in the 4th or 5th round. Good opportunity to pull a profit.[/quote]

You might like this:
[url=http://www.footballguys.com/bryantvbd.htm]Joe Bryant - Principles of VBD[/url]

"The value of a player is determined not by the number of points he scores, but by how much he outscores his peers at his particular position."

1. The object of the game is not to score a ton of points, but to outscore the opponent. You must fill a roster with a specified number of players at specified positions. The surest way to outscore your opponent is to build a team of players that outscore their peers. The players who most distance themselves from the other players at their respective positions are therefore the most valuable. Remember the 8 player draft example where I can't lose after drafting the 20 point WR.

2. Factors such as the specific number of teams, starting lineup requirements, frozen players, and scoring system for your league dramatically effect the values of each player. These factors can cause the same player in two different leagues to have dramatically different values.

Re: Fantasy Tips
 

[quote=12thMan;723764]So wait, I see that MonkFan drafted a few defensive players. I thought (by the way, I have the rules for my league tucked away, I just wanted to stop by Warpath for a primer) if you drafted a defense you had to draft an entire defense, not individual players?

Another question about drafting defensive players, do you draft guys who have the ability to score TD or produce sacks, which in turn gives you points? Is that the idea?[/quote]

No you don't 12th. Only if your league uses Individual Defensive Players or IDP's. Generally you draft a Team Defense. Most likely you are using Team D's so you want to look for more prolific defenses. You want to make sure that you are getting points so whover get's a lot of turnovers, sacks, TD's. Check the scoring that your league is using and you can judge better off of that.

Re: Fantasy Tips
 

[quote=12thMan;723767]Damn Schneed my head just exploded, but thanks for the analysis and break-down.


Interesting point about Manning too, because I know everyone will try to take him, AP or Chris Johnson with their first pick.

Seems like most here think Moss and Portis could be good picks in the right round(s).[/quote]

In my opinion, everyone's top 3 should be the same:

1) Chris Johnson
2) Adrian Peterson
3) Maurice Jones-Drew

After that you can debate 4/5/6 between Ray Rice, Michael Turner, and Frank Gore.

7 & 8 should be Brees and Rodgers, but if you think your league is sleeping on their value then pass on them in the late first and try to get them in the high second round.

Then Andre Johnson, Rashard Mendenhall, and Steven Jackson should be in the 9/10/11 conversation.