Redskins 2014 Salary Cap Status
 

Study the numbers and uncover a potential offseason plan. That's the premise of this thread. We've had these threads for a few years running now, typically we're not too far off from what to expect. This year will be tougher to predict because A) there are new sheriffs in town with Allen and Gruden, and B) there's so much salary cap space available that the team could take a million different directions.

That said, I'm assuming Bruce Allen was being truthful when he said to expect an active free agency. And I'm assuming he'll continue to shy away from mortgaging the future.



Last Updated: 1/30/2014 at 4:30pm Eastern


[B][SIZE=3]Current Cap Space: $16.9M[/SIZE][/B]

[U]Expected Contract Voids[/U]:
Josh Morgan: $6.8M Savings
Brandon Meriweather: $2.2M Savings
Void/Retirement - London Fletcher: $4.1M Savings
Incremental Impact of 3 Players Replacing in Top 51: ($1.5M) Hit

[B]Expected Cap Space Following Voids: $28.5M[/B]

[U]Expected Roster Cuts[/U]:
Tyler Polumbus: $1.5M Savings
Sav Rocca: $1.2M Savings
Incremental Impact of 2 Players Replacing in Top 51: ($1.0M) Hit

[B]Expected Cap Space Following Cuts: $30.2M[/B]


[U]Anticipated Resignings[/U]:
Brian Orakpo: ($7.5M) Hit
Perry Riley: ($3M) Hit
DeAngelo Hall: ($2.5M) Hit
Rob Jackson: ($1.5M) Hit
Incremental Impact of 4 Players Bumped Out of Top 51: $2.0M Savings

[B]Expected Cap Space Following Resignings: $17.7M[/B]

[U]Anticipated Free Agent Signings[/U]:
A Decent RT: ($4M) Hit
CB Aqib Talib: ($5M) Hit
FS Jairus Byrd: ($5M) Hit
WR Brandon Tate: ($2.0M) Hit
Any Punter, Whatever: ($0.9M) Hit
5 Other Guys at Pretty Low Sal: ($5.0M) Hit
Incremental Impact of 10 Players Bumped Out of Top 51: $5.0M Savings

[B]Expected Cap Space Following Free Agency: $0.8M[/B]

[U]Rookie Signings[/U]:
Anticipated Rookie Pool: ($4.0M) Hit
Incremental Impact of Players Bumped Out of Top 51: $4.0 Savings

[U][B]Expected Cap Space Following Rookie Signings: $0.8M[/B][/U]


Interestingly, the team has a lot of holes to fill and could go in a thousand different directions in free agency. I set a path here that prioritizes fixing the secondary and the RT spot. Certainly the team could try to address those needs without going after the high dollar players I've listed here.

Also, consider the possibility that the team approaches Trent Williams now to extend him. This would lock in one of the cornerstones of the team for a long time while lowering his 2014 cap number. That kind of move may not be Bruce Allen's style but the opportunity to free up space this way is very significant.

Anyway, have at it. Ask questions or chart a different free agent course. I'll track the moves here and keep this updated as much as possible.

Re: Redskins 2014 Salary Cap Status
 

This is excellent Schneed, thanks for posting this. Ok I will get into more detail later on what I think they should do but at first glance I agree with most of your suggestions. If we could resign those guys on D I would be very happy (especially Riley and Orakpo). Adding a top CB like Talib though for $5M I think is underselling his value. I think he'll go for more than that in the open market. If you're talking just cap hit instead of salary then yeah I can see them structuring it that he only counts for that much. Same with Byrd. I'd love to land him but I think he'll be looking for over $9M/season.

I agree with your releases but I would also think they will definitely cut Carriker or restructure his contract at the very least for a pay cut. That should free up a few Mill. I think Chester and Bowen are possibilities as well. I also hope we go for a bigger name at WR than Brandon Tate. As a surprise to most they may target WR high in the draft.

I think with what you have laid out we would then have starters at every position except for another ILB. I can see us making a run for someone like Donald Butler or Brandon Spikes to start opposite Riley. That would cost an additional how much, $2.5M? That's another position I think they'll target early in the draft. They could also resign one of the UFA's on the cheap like Bryan Kehl or Nick Barnett.

Good stuff!

Re: Redskins 2014 Salary Cap Status
 

last season is dead and gone; the future is bright!

is it march 11th yet?

Re: Redskins 2014 Salary Cap Status
 

Yeah Talib and Byrd both will be worth a pretty penny, but cap hits typically come lower in the first season is usually lower from a cap hit angle. I think Orakpo will take 11M a season but have the cap hit at 8.

Re: Redskins 2014 Salary Cap Status
 

The only thing I don't like about your design Schneed is I would rather go into the year with somewhere in the ballpark of 3-4 cap space remaining. I know you don't need multiple millions of cap space, just enough for inseason contingencies, but it would be nice not to get back to the Dallas and previous Skins model of buy alot, rework what you need to. I just don't think that's sustainable. (of course having 60mil like the Raiders do this year is equally ridiculous).

Re: Redskins 2014 Salary Cap Status
 

[quote=CRedskinsRule;1058033]The only thing I don't like about your design Schneed is I would rather go into the year with somewhere in the ballpark of 3-4 cap space remaining. I know you don't need multiple millions of cap space, just enough for inseason contingencies, but it would be nice not to get back to the Dallas and previous Skins model of buy alot, rework what you need to. I just don't think that's sustainable. (of course having 60mil like the Raiders do this year is equally ridiculous).[/quote]

Probably a good point and more reflective of reality.

Re: Redskins 2014 Salary Cap Status
 

I'll hold my numbers where they are in anticipation that the cap gets raised a little bit. It always seems to.

Re: Redskins 2014 Salary Cap Status
 

I have figured a way to get my spreadsheet out there by using a file drop site that doesn't require registration (the file will only be there for 7 days). If you guys are interested download it (it's in Excel) and you tinker with it and see who would be beneficial to release/resign. It's heavily based on numbers from SpotRac and I've taken CrazyCanuck's differences and used his numbers (actually there is a worksheet in there with his info).

[url=http://wikisend.com/download/402404/RedskinsCap2014SFO.xls]Redskins' 2014 Cap Info[/url]

Hope it works. I don't mean to step on anyone's toes I'm just sharing info and enjoy comparing info with others. This seems like a great place to do this. Not sure why I enjoy this cap stuff so much since I'm not a bean counter by any stretch but I just enjoy it.

Re: Redskins 2014 Salary Cap Status
 

[quote=Schneed10;1058089]I'll hold my numbers where they are in anticipation that the cap gets raised a little bit. It always seems to.[/quote]

I believe the NFLPA was trying to do another year of sliding benefit payments/other maneuvers to create more cap space.

Hopefully we don't have any other Mar 10th surprises this year to help them cover up their bad CBA.

Re: Redskins 2014 Salary Cap Status
 

[quote=SkinsFanOttawa;1058106]Hope it works. I don't mean to step on anyone's toes I'm just sharing info and enjoy comparing info with others. This seems like a great place to do this. Not sure why I enjoy this cap stuff so much since I'm not a bean counter by any stretch but I just enjoy it.[/quote]

I was able to download it, I'll play around with it on the weekend.

Re: Redskins 2014 Salary Cap Status
 

[quote=Schneed10;1057999][U]Expected Contract Voids[/U]:
Josh Morgan: $6.8M Savings
Brandon Meriweather: $2.2M Savings
Void/Retirement - London Fletcher: $4.1M Savings
Incremental Impact of 3 Players Replacing in Top 51: ($1.5M) Hit

[B]Expected Cap Space Following Voids: $28.5M[/B]

[U]Expected Roster Cuts[/U]:
Tyler Polumbus: $1.5M Savings
Sav Rocca: $1.2M Savings
Incremental Impact of 2 Players Replacing in Top 51: ($1.0M) Hit

[B]Expected Cap Space Following Cuts: $30.2M[/B]


[U]Anticipated Resignings[/U]:
Brian Orakpo: ($7.5M) Hit
Perry Riley: ($3M) Hit
DeAngelo Hall: ($2.5M) Hit
Rob Jackson: ($1.5M) Hit
Incremental Impact of 4 Players Bumped Out of Top 51: $2.0M Savings

[B]Expected Cap Space Following Resignings: $17.7M[/B]

[U]Anticipated Free Agent Signings[/U]:
A Decent RT: ($4M) Hit
CB Aqib Talib: ($5M) Hit
FS Jairus Byrd: ($5M) Hit
WR Brandon Tate: ($2.0M) Hit
Any Punter, Whatever: ($0.9M) Hit
5 Other Guys at Pretty Low Sal: ($5.0M) Hit
Incremental Impact of 10 Players Bumped Out of Top 51: $5.0M Savings

[B]Expected Cap Space Following Free Agency: $0.8M[/B]

[U]Rookie Signings[/U]:
Anticipated Rookie Pool: ($4.0M) Hit
Incremental Impact of Players Bumped Out of Top 51: $4.0 Savings

[U][B]Expected Cap Space Following Rookie Signings: $0.8M[/B][/U]

[/quote]

I doubt that Polumbus will be cut but Rocca is as good as gone. They'll probably keep Polumbus as a backup, at least. I would think that Carriker, Bowen, and Golston might be cut. That would free up over $6MM in cap space.

I don't think that Rob Jackson is a given as a re-signing, but there may be a couple of other re-signings.

I like your list of possible FA signings. Signing both Byrd and Talib may be a dream but they would be my first choices at their positions. Like you, I think we need to sign proven players at FS and CB.

We're probably going to cut a boatload of players who are paid in the $400K to $700K range, maybe as many as 10-15. That would save $4.5MM - $7.5MM, enough to replace them with inexpensive FA's and drafted players.

Re: Redskins 2014 Salary Cap Status
 

[quote=KI Skins Fan;1058176]I doubt that Polumbus will be cut but Rocca is as good as gone. They'll probably keep Polumbus as a backup, at least. I would think that Carriker, Bowen, and Golston might be cut. That would free up over $6MM in cap space.

I don't think that Rob Jackson is a given as a re-signing, but there may be a couple of other re-signings.

I like your list of possible FA signings. Signing both Byrd and Talib may be a dream but they would be my first choices at their positions. Like you, I think we need to sign proven players at FS and CB.

We're probably going to cut a boatload of players who are paid in the $400K to $700K range, maybe as many as 10-15. That would save $4.5MM - $7.5MM, enough to replace them with inexpensive FA's and drafted players.[/quote]

Carrier Bowen AND Golston? Who would you have starting on the line? That'd be quite a revamp, they'd have to sign replacements. I bet you are right on at least one of them but all three sounds like leaving the line too thin.

With Jackson I feel like he will look around and test the market and find no takers, and Bruce will sign him late in the FA process on the cheap. All it takes though is one team, like Lorenzo Alexander.

On the vet minimum guys, remember that if you sign one like that, he bumps someone out of the top 51, so the net cap hit is pretty much negligible. You can sign almost all the guys in the world at vet min with very little cap hit. I agree, they will prob pick up plenty like this, I bet many are Bengals second teamers. I didn't bother to list this because there's practically no net impact on the cap.

Re: Redskins 2014 Salary Cap Status
 

Thanks for posting this. This site is always my go to source for Washington salary cap questions. Great job.

Re: Redskins 2014 Salary Cap Status
 

I wouldn't mind seeing Carlos Rogers in a skins uniform if the 9ers cut him, he doesn't have a problem with the current regime.

Re: Redskins 2014 Salary Cap Status
 

[quote=Schneed10;1058180]Carrier Bowen AND Golston? Who would you have starting on the line? That'd be quite a revamp, they'd have to sign replacements. I bet you are right on at least one of them but all three sounds like leaving the line too thin.[/quote]

I like Adam Carriker in our 3-4 but I think it's just not worth the injury risk to pay Carriker and take a $3.240MM cap hit in the process.

Stephen Bowen has been a disappointment because he hasn't been able to push the pocket, as he was expected to do when he was signed. I wouln't take a $1.980MM cap hit for him if we could do better at that position.

Kedrick Golston seems to be a quality teammate but he is an average 3-4 DT. He's not a bad player at all but, now that he's 30 years old, it might be a better alternative to look for a younger FA player who can do what he does but who has more speed and more potential to get better. That player would probably cost less, as well. I think that Golston would be easy to replace, so why not save some of the $880K of cap space he takes up?

Now, what would I do to replace these players?

We would still have Jarvis Jenkins who could start and who I think should have more upside in his second season after having knee surgery. Chris Baker can backup at DT, if needed, but I see him as the primary backup to Coefield at NT.

I would add two FA DT's and a drafted player to the mix.

The first FA would be a proven starter who can push the pocket and improve our pass rush, as well as stop the run. I like either Randy Starks or Michael Johnson in that role.

The second FA would replace Golston and is described above. But I wouldn't mind too much if they decided to keep Golston instead.

Re: Redskins 2014 Salary Cap Status
 

Over on Redskins Insider at the WP they're discussing what Perry Riley might be worth to resign. They mention that London Fletcher made nearly $11M over the last two seasons, and thus Riley might ask for more than that given that he's younger and potentially more impactful.

That's absurd. He may start his negotiation that way, but there's no way any team will pay him near $6M per season, in my opinion. What do you guys think is the right target for Riley?

[url=http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/football-insider/wp/2014/02/04/offseason-questions-how-much-is-perry-riley-jr-worth/]Offseason questions: How much is Perry Riley Jr. worth?[/url]

Re: Redskins 2014 Salary Cap Status
 

[quote=Schneed10;1058725]That's absurd. He may start his negotiation that way, but there's no way any team will pay him near $6M per season, in my opinion. What do you guys think is the right target for Riley?

[url=http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/football-insider/wp/2014/02/04/offseason-questions-how-much-is-perry-riley-jr-worth/]Offseason questions: How much is Perry Riley Jr. worth?[/url][/quote]

I just read this article too and almost spit out my sandwich. There is no way that Riley is worth even close to that much. He is an average or maybe slightly above average inside LB who isn't that great of a run stopper if you ask me. He's good, just not worth elite type money for that position. For what Riley is looking for that's Sean Lee type of money or a guy like Paul Posluszny.

I think he's worth somewhere in the $3-4M range tops. I know we are thin at that position but let him walk if need be and test out the waters and see if he gets what he thinks he's worth. In the meantime we draft a guy, let Keenan Robinson take one of the spots and resign Barnett and another FA like Donald Butler or Pat Angerer who wouldn't be asking for AS much I don't think.

Re: Redskins 2014 Salary Cap Status
 

Riley shouldn't be asking for Fletcher money until he makes the Pro Bowl.

Re: Redskins 2014 Salary Cap Status
 

[quote=Schneed10;1058725]Over on Redskins Insider at the WP they're discussing what Perry Riley might be worth to resign. They mention that London Fletcher made nearly $11M over the last two seasons, and thus Riley might ask for more than that given that he's younger and potentially more impactful.

That's absurd. He may start his negotiation that way, but there's no way any team will pay him near $6M per season, in my opinion. What do you guys think is the right target for Riley?

[url=http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/football-insider/wp/2014/02/04/offseason-questions-how-much-is-perry-riley-jr-worth/]Offseason questions: How much is Perry Riley Jr. worth?[/url][/quote]

thats fucking retarded. walk. im gonna be pissed if we pay him, but let players more talented at their positions, Carlos and Landry, walk.

Re: Redskins 2014 Salary Cap Status
 

$2M/year tops i'd think. what's he done that's so incredible?

fletcher was making that much based on how well he was playing 3 years ago and based on his knowledge of the D/ability to get guys lined up properly. Shannahan would have re-worked or cut fletcher if he were anyone else not named london fletcher, but he had too much respect to ask him to take a pay cut.

if fletcher wasn't worth nearly the 5.5M he was paid, riley is obviously worth way less than that.

Re: Redskins 2014 Salary Cap Status
 

Riley is one of our core ST and best ILB. Does he deserve Fletcher money know, but he is one of ours that we should keep. I would think 3-4yr /with an avg of around 4 ought to be a reasonable contract.

Re: Redskins 2014 Salary Cap Status
 

thanks for the work schneed....someone told me the cowboys are about 25 million over? do you know anything about that?

Re: Redskins 2014 Salary Cap Status
 

[quote=dmek25;1058742]thanks for the work schneed....someone told me the cowboys are about 25 million over? do you know anything about that?[/quote]

Right now, from Overthecap, their top 51 are at 140mil, plus 11mil in dead cap.

If the Salary cap comes in at 127, that would be the 25 million over.

BUT they will definitely restructure Romo (hurt back and all) to save about 10mil, and Ware is expected to restructure or take a paycut to save about 6 million.

Re: Redskins 2014 Salary Cap Status
 

[quote=CRedskinsRule;1058751]Right now, from Overthecap, their top 51 are at 140mil, plus 11mil in dead cap.

If the Salary cap comes in at 127, that would be the 25 million over.

BUT they will definitely restructure Romo (hurt back and all) to save about 10mil, and Ware is expected to restructure or take a paycut to save about 6 million.[/quote]

Yep well said. They'll be able to restructure quite a bit, but they'll definitely still shed some under-performing players. And the more they restructure, the more they kick the can down the road. Eventually they're going to have to blow that whole thing up, even if that won't be this season.

Re: Redskins 2014 Salary Cap Status
 

[quote=Schneed10;1058765]Yep well said. They'll be able to restructure quite a bit, but they'll definitely still shed some under-performing players. And the more they restructure, the more they kick the can down the road. Eventually they're going to have to blow that whole thing up, even if that won't be this season.[/quote]

What would throw them for a loop is Romo having a career ending injury next season. They clearly have to restructure him this year, and with their typical restructure they would push a bunch of cap hit into 15/16.

Re: Redskins 2014 Salary Cap Status
 

[quote=CRedskinsRule;1058732]Riley is one of our core ST and best ILB. Does he deserve Fletcher money know, but he is one of ours that we should keep. I would think 3-4yr /with an avg of around 4 ought to be a reasonable contract.[/quote]

you've seen our special teams, right? and i'd substitute "best" ILB for "only" ILB, so it's not like there's much competition.

not saying he's awful or anything, but he's not a super stud either.

Re: Redskins 2014 Salary Cap Status
 

[quote=CRedskinsRule;1058766]What would throw them for a loop is Romo having a career ending injury next season. They clearly have to restructure him this year, and with their typical restructure they would push a bunch of cap hit into 15/16.[/quote]

IMO never wish evil on anyone I'm a Karma type of person.

Re: Redskins 2014 Salary Cap Status
 

To be clear, I'm not wishing it on Romo, but two offseason's in a row with back surgeries is not something that can be overlooked when pushing salary cap forward.

Re: Redskins 2014 Salary Cap Status
 

[quote=CRedskinsRule;1058769]To be clear, I'm not wishing it on Romo, but two offseason's in a row with back surgeries is not something that can be overlooked when pushing salary cap forward.[/quote]

I hear yah!

Re: Redskins 2014 Salary Cap Status
 

[quote=That Guy;1058767]you've seen our special teams, right? and i'd substitute "best" ILB for "only" ILB, so it's not like there's much competition.

not saying he's awful or anything, but he's not a super stud either.[/quote]

I have liked Riley from day one, he had penalty issues to get past, but I think he is more than just ok, he's been overshadowed by an aging Fletcher, but I think this year he breaks out in his own right.

Re: Redskins 2014 Salary Cap Status
 

[B]@MikeJonesWaPo

Some expect Perry Riley to seek similar contract to MIA LB Dannell Ellerbe, who last yr got deal 5-yr deal paying $7M per season. #Redskins[/B]


Need to drug test this fucker if he actually thinks he's going to get anywhere close to 7mil/year. No way in hell.

Re: Redskins 2014 Salary Cap Status
 

[quote=CRedskinsRule;1058773]I have liked Riley from day one, he had penalty issues to get past, but I think he is more than just ok, he's been overshadowed by an aging Fletcher, but I think this year he breaks out in his own right.[/quote]

So then what if we offered him a deal rich in incentives? Something like $4 mil / 5 yrs but with a large bonus for making the Pro Bowl or All-Pro, a decently large bonus for leading the team in tackles, etc.

Re: Redskins 2014 Salary Cap Status
 

[quote=Lotus;1058783]So then what if we offered him a deal rich in incentives? Something like $4 mil / 5 yrs but with a large bonus for making the Pro Bowl or All-Pro, a decently large bonus for leading the team in tackles, etc.[/quote]

This is a move I would make if I were Allen

Re: Redskins 2014 Salary Cap Status
 

[quote=Lotus;1058783]So then what if we offered him a deal rich in incentives? Something like $4 mil / 5 yrs but with a large bonus for making the Pro Bowl or All-Pro, a decently large bonus for leading the team in tackles, etc.[/quote]

Har-de-har-har! His agent can't be that stupid. He and his agent will want a boatload of bonus opportunities on top of a rich, long-term contract.

We all know the nature of the FA system is that decent FA players get paid way more than what they are actually worth. Then they restructure later on for even more money. That eventually cripples any team that signs too many of them.

We need him more than any other team does. So we're probably going to overpay for him, if we sign him. Our only hope is that there won't enough interest in him on the part of other teams to push up the price so high that we'll be forced by common sense to let him sign elsewhere.

Re: Redskins 2014 Salary Cap Status
 

[quote=NC_Skins;1058782][B]@MikeJonesWaPo

Some expect Perry Riley to seek similar contract to MIA LB Dannell Ellerbe, who last yr got deal 5-yr deal paying $7M per season. #Redskins[/B]


Need to drug test this fucker if he actually thinks he's going to get anywhere close to 7mil/year. No way in hell.[/quote]

I would replace him, no way Id come close to that. Im really on the fence about him resigning anyways. I'd think 4 mil per would be a stretch.

Re: Redskins 2014 Salary Cap Status
 

Riley can ask for that type of money all he wants, he's not going to get it here or anywhere else. That's just negotiating. The player shoots for the moon, the team comes back low, and they end up meeting in the middle.

Re: Redskins 2014 Salary Cap Status
 

[quote=Mattyk;1058806]Riley can ask for that type of money all he wants, he's not going to get it here or anywhere else. That's just negotiating. The player shoots for the moon, the team comes back low, and they end up meeting in the middle.[/quote]

True, he just comes off looking like a major dipshit. 4 for 15, thats about his value

Re: Redskins 2014 Salary Cap Status
 

[quote=Chico23231;1058807]True, he just comes off looking like a major dipshit. 4 for 15, thats about his value[/quote]

He's not the one saying anything...

[quote][B]Two other league insiders predict that Riley, who has earned an average of $790,000 a year over the past four seasons, will seek a similar contract to that of Miami’s Dannell Ellerbe,[/B] who last season signed a five-year deal that pays him roughly $7 million per year. Will the Redskins deem him worthy of that significant a raise? Or, will they let him test the market to gauge his worth and then act accordingly?[/quote]

Re: Redskins 2014 Salary Cap Status
 

I think Carriker will be cut and resigned at a lesser number like DHall was last year.

Re: Redskins 2014 Salary Cap Status
 

[quote=diehardskin2982;1058810]I think Carriker will be cut and resigned at a lesser number like DHall was last year.[/quote]

I think we need to cut ties with Carriker, regardless of contract numbers.