We must draft better...
 

I have seen many questions about the draft, and I decided to do a lil' analysis of the last 10 years. From looking at our draft history here, I noticed that for the last ten years we have;

-Drafted 62 out of an alloted 70 choices or 88.6%

-From 1996-2000 we drafted 36 players out of an alloted 35 choices or 102%
* 11 top draft choices (TDC-rounds 1-3) OUT of a possible 15 choices 73%
* 3 TDC players are still with the squad or 27% (3/11)
* 1 player outside TDC choices on the squad 4% (1/25)
* SMART DRAFT QUOTIENT- 26% (80% of TDC players +20% of other players)

-From 2001-2005 we drafted 26 players out of an alloted 36 choices or 74%
* 11 top draft choices OUT of a possible 15 choices 73%
* 7 TDC players are still on squad 63% (7/11)
* 1 player outside TDC choices on the squad 6.6% (1/15)
* SMART DRAFT QUOTIENT- 52% (80% of TDC players +20% of other players)

-JOE GIBBS II we drafted 10 out of an allocated 14 choices or 71%
* 4 TDC out of a possible 6 choices or 66%
* 4 TDC players are still on squad or 100%
* 3 players outside TDC choices are on squad 50% or (3/6)
* SMART DRAFT QUOTIENT- 90% (80% of TDC players +20% of other players).

There are multiple variables here that I am not taking into account such as losses via free agency, such as smoot/champ. Secondly, as it is obvious, players drafted in 1996 would have 10 years of experience, there aren't many in the NFL. Having said that, 3 sources of concern; 1) In the last 5 years, we are trading away too many choices, we are only drafting 66+% of what we are capable on TDC players, 2) Of what we are drafting in the TDC we are only able to put on the squad 63%, 3) Our draft capability in the lower rounds is abysmal.

My 2 cents worth....

Re: We must draft better...
 

[QUOTE=lifetimeskin]I have seen many questions about the draft, and I decided to do a lil' analysis of the last 10 years. From looking at our draft history here, I noticed that for the last ten years we have;

-Drafted 62 out of an alloted 70 choices or 88.6%

-From 1996-2000 we drafted 36 players out of an alloted 35 choices or 102%
* 11 top draft choices (TDC-rounds 1-3) OUT of a possible 15 choices 73%
* 3 TDC players are still with the squad or 27% (3/11)
* 1 player outside TDC choices on the squad 4% (1/25)
* SMART DRAFT QUOTIENT- 26% (80% of TDC players +20% of other players)

-From 2001-2005 we drafted 26 players out of an alloted 36 choices or 74%
* 11 top draft choices OUT of a possible 15 choices 73%
* 7 TDC players are still on squad 63% (7/11)
* 1 player outside TDC choices on the squad 6.6% (1/15)
* SMART DRAFT QUOTIENT- 52% (80% of TDC players +20% of other players)

-JOE GIBBS II we drafted 10 out of an allocated 14 choices or 71%
* 4 TDC out of a possible 6 choices or 66%
* 4 TDC players are still on squad or 100%
* 3 players outside TDC choices are on squad 50% or (3/6)
* SMART DRAFT QUOTIENT- 90% (80% of TDC players +20% of other players).

There are multiple variables here that I am not taking into account such as losses via free agency, such as smoot/champ. Secondly, as it is obvious, players drafted in 1996 would have 10 years of experience, there aren't many in the NFL. Having said that, 3 sources of concern; 1) In the last 5 years, we are trading away too many choices, we are only drafting 66+% of what we are capable on TDC players, 2) Of what we are drafting in the TDC we are only able to put on the squad 63%, 3) Our draft capability in the lower rounds is abysmal.

My 2 cents worth....[/QUOTE]

Ya'll need to keep your draft picks for starters and stop your owner from putting your team in cap hell every 5 years

I should know after wathing Jerry Jones drive this teams into the ground with poor drafts, trading 2 number 1's for Galloway and mismanage the cap by overpaying for aging vets and poor FA decisions

Until snyder follows the lead of the new Jerry Jones, my heart goes out to you guys--mediocrity will reign

Re: We must draft better...
 

[QUOTE=la73hof]Ya'll need to keep your draft picks for starters and stop your owner from putting your team in cap hell every 5 years

I should know after wathing Jerry Jones drive this teams into the ground with poor drafts, trading 2 number 1's for Galloway and mismanage the cap by overpaying for aging vets and poor FA decisions

Until snyder follows the lead of the new Jerry Jones, my heart goes out to you guys--mediocrity will reign[/QUOTE]

I think Snyder has gotten a bad rap for his 2000 free agency spending spree. Aside from that year, he hasn't been going overboard during free agency. In 2001, we went after no one. In 2002, we didn't go after a bunch of guys. The 2003 free agency plans were directed by Spurrier. Our 2004 free agent spending spree was directed by Gibbs. This year, we hardly picked up anyone.

Re: We must draft better...
 

[QUOTE=Ramseyfan]I think Snyder has gotten a bad rap for his 2000 free agency spending spree. Aside from that year, he hasn't been going overboard during free agency. In 2001, we went after no one. In 2002, we didn't go after a bunch of guys. The 2003 free agency plans were directed by Spurrier. Our 2004 free agent spending spree was directed by Gibbs. This year, we hardly picked up anyone.[/QUOTE]


Agreed, the problem is we are not maximizing the draft, other than 2 top 10 picks in Taylor and Rogers, we really have 1 player that I can see, and that's Cooley, in 2 drafts that is it, and I wouldn't expect anything out of this upcoming draft considering we really don't have much of a draft left.

Re: We must draft better...
 

What about Rock, he was a damn good find....Gibbs and company has done a pretty good job.

Re: We must draft better...
 

[QUOTE=NM Redskin]What about Rock, he was a damn good find....Gibbs and company has done a pretty good job.[/QUOTE]


Rock was picked under SS. and he is still a 3rd string back.

Re: We must draft better...
 

[QUOTE=lifetimeskin]I have seen many questions about the draft, and I decided to do a lil' analysis of the last 10 years. From looking at our draft history here, I noticed that for the last ten years we have;

-Drafted 62 out of an alloted 70 choices or 88.6%

-From 1996-2000 we drafted 36 players out of an alloted 35 choices or 102%
* 11 top draft choices (TDC-rounds 1-3) OUT of a possible 15 choices 73%
* 3 TDC players are still with the squad or 27% (3/11)
* 1 player outside TDC choices on the squad 4% (1/25)
* SMART DRAFT QUOTIENT- 26% (80% of TDC players +20% of other players)

-From 2001-2005 we drafted 26 players out of an alloted 36 choices or 74%
* 11 top draft choices OUT of a possible 15 choices 73%
* 7 TDC players are still on squad 63% (7/11)
* 1 player outside TDC choices on the squad 6.6% (1/15)
* SMART DRAFT QUOTIENT- 52% (80% of TDC players +20% of other players)

-JOE GIBBS II we drafted 10 out of an allocated 14 choices or 71%
* 4 TDC out of a possible 6 choices or 66%
* 4 TDC players are still on squad or 100%
* 3 players outside TDC choices are on squad 50% or (3/6)
* SMART DRAFT QUOTIENT- 90% (80% of TDC players +20% of other players).

There are multiple variables here that I am not taking into account such as losses via free agency, such as smoot/champ. Secondly, as it is obvious, players drafted in 1996 would have 10 years of experience, there aren't many in the NFL. Having said that, 3 sources of concern; 1) In the last 5 years, we are trading away too many choices, we are only drafting 66+% of what we are capable on TDC players, 2) Of what we are drafting in the TDC we are only able to put on the squad 63%, 3) Our draft capability in the lower rounds is abysmal.

My 2 cents worth....[/QUOTE]

An interesting and informative analysis. Clearly, we haven't hit on all draft choices. But, before claiming that our lower round drafting is abysmal, how does the Skins draft record compare to other teams. Perhaps it is higher than all but a few teams. Maybe not. Just don't know. The draft is a crap shoot. Also, to be truly comparitive of DRAFTING ability, you have to take into account whether the players are still in the league (Smoot).

Re: We must draft better...
 

[QUOTE=offiss]Rock was picked under SS. and he is still a 3rd string back.[/QUOTE]
Uhh ..... most 7th rounder dont even make the team. Hes been here 3 years. How can you even judge Gibbs picks just 2 years after he took over. Also it not easy even to get good players at the top of the draft. Plus Gibbs brings in rookies the right way.... slowly and doesn't expect them to be a quick fix....cause he remembers Desmond Howard lol.

Re: We must draft better...
 

[QUOTE=NM Redskin]Uhh ..... most 7th rounder dont even make the team. Hes been here 3 years. How can you even judge Gibbs picks just 2 years after he took over. Also it not easy even to get good players at the top of the draft. Plus Gibbs brings in rookies the right way.... slowly and doesn't expect them to be a quick fix....cause he remembers Desmond Howard lol.[/QUOTE]

Well most of them aren't on our roster, or sitting the bench or practice squad somewhere's else.

I remember Desmond to, that's another reason I worry about Gibbs ability to judge talent. lol

Re: We must draft better...
 

Your anaylsis proves what some on this site dont seem to understand, the draft is an inexact science. A team needs to have as many draft picks as possible in order to minimize the 'risk' of this unproven talent and maximize the chance of getting a future star. Unfortunately (I've said this a million time before on this site) the skins have a coach and front office that likes to give away their draft picks so the organization never realizes the full potential of the draft and is constantly stuck plugging holes with high priced free agents. This is not how successful teams are run.

Re: We must draft better...
 

I'd like to see how some other teams compare.

Re: We must draft better...
 

[QUOTE=Ramseyfan]I think Snyder has gotten a bad rap for his 2000 free agency spending spree. Aside from that year, he hasn't been going overboard during free agency. In 2001, we went after no one. In 2002, we didn't go after a bunch of guys. The 2003 free agency plans were directed by Spurrier. Our 2004 free agent spending spree was directed by Gibbs. This year, we hardly picked up anyone.[/QUOTE]

I really dont know where you see he doesn't spend big every year, but thats your opinion. And which leads me to your Spurrier remark. Exactly my point here lately, Spurrier led the spending spree and Gibbs led the spending spree. Why are they leading anything other than practice monday through sunday. That the part of a GM or a knowledgable football guy. I am not saying Gibbs is not knowledgeable so dont start with that crap. 99% of teams need a GM or talent evaluator. there are some exceptions, and I dont thing the Skins are one of them. In no way should a coach, especially one from college, direct a spending spree on free agents. Gibbs shouldn't either. I think he got caught up in all this free agency stuff and the deep pockets of the DANNY!. DRAFT , DRAFT , DRAFT.

Re: We must draft better...
 

[QUOTE=irish]Your anaylsis proves what some on this site dont seem to understand, the draft is an inexact science. A team needs to have as many draft picks as possible in order to minimize the 'risk' of this unproven talent and maximize the chance of getting a future star. Unfortunately (I've said this a million time before on this site) the skins have a coach and front office that likes to give away their draft picks so the organization never realizes the full potential of the draft and is constantly stuck plugging holes with high priced free agents. This is not how successful teams are run.[/QUOTE]

dude, something else we agree on. I have said it for a long time now, this organization will not win consistantly if they do not draft well. We do not have the right people in place to make personel decisions. I mean people that can go out and find that diamond in the rough. I think our scouting group goes to USC games and scouts Reggie Bush! that is stupid, or Texan to scout Vince Young. These things are rediculous. They need to be able to go out and find these guys in 4th to 7th rounds, or undrafted players that have football talent. Patriots do it every year, Philly the good organizations do it year in and year out. They plug holes with draft picks.

Re: We must draft better...
 

[quote]Ya'll need to keep your draft picks for starters and stop your owner from putting your team in cap hell every 5 years[/quote]

I'd like you to point to one time during Snyders reign that we've actually been in salary cap hell, as you put it. The "experts" tell us every year that we have no money and we have to cut half the team, I have yet to see anything to that extent. I'll argue that the Redskins are far and away one of the top teams in the NFL at managing the cap. We've had lengthy discussions with CrazyCannuck on here (who seems to know a lot about the cap) and it seems the Redskins factor in X amount of lost money due to the cap in order to make everything else work. While I don't like our free agency sprees often, they have yet to actually kill us via the salary cap.

As far as drafting, I think we get a bum rap for it. Granted, I don't think we've handled our picks very well (Ie giving them away) but in the first round we've been dead on lately. (In no particular order) Taylor, Rogers, Arrington, Bailey, Samuels. While most people argue you should get that #1 pick right, fact is many teams miss on their #1s. I think we need to work a little harder to develop our late picks so we have sufficient depth (especially seeing what our secondary looks like this year!)

Now, Im also not opposed giving up a #1 or a #2 pick for a guy that's proven but still young enough to give us a good 6-10 years. When we did the Coles trade I thought it was a good use of a first rounder. We got a receiver that was talented, established, and from all accounts a good team guy. I know Coles has been demonized here, but I think using a first round pick in that sense is okay IF you feel like the players in the draft aren't as good or would take too long to develop. Ideally we can keep picking up players like Marcus Washington for cheap and build through the draft, but he's the steal of a lifetime.

Re: We must draft better...
 

[QUOTE=Daseal]I'd like you to point to one time during Snyders reign that we've actually been in salary cap hell, as you put it. The "experts" tell us every year that we have no money and we have to cut half the team, I have yet to see anything to that extent. I'll argue that the Redskins are far and away one of the top teams in the NFL at managing the cap. We've had lengthy discussions with CrazyCannuck on here (who seems to know a lot about the cap) and it seems the Redskins factor in X amount of lost money due to the cap in order to make everything else work. While I don't like our free agency sprees often, they have yet to actually kill us via the salary cap.

As far as drafting, I think we get a bum rap for it. Granted, I don't think we've handled our picks very well (Ie giving them away) but in the first round we've been dead on lately. (In no particular order) Taylor, Rogers, Arrington, Bailey, Samuels. While most people argue you should get that #1 pick right, fact is many teams miss on their #1s. I think we need to work a little harder to develop our late picks so we have sufficient depth (especially seeing what our secondary looks like this year!)

Now, Im also not opposed giving up a #1 or a #2 pick for a guy that's proven but still young enough to give us a good 6-10 years. When we did the Coles trade I thought it was a good use of a first rounder. We got a receiver that was talented, established, and from all accounts a good team guy. I know Coles has been demonized here, but I think using a first round pick in that sense is okay IF you feel like the players in the draft aren't as good or would take too long to develop. Ideally we can keep picking up players like Marcus Washington for cheap and build through the draft, but he's the steal of a lifetime.[/QUOTE]

Boy, where does one start. The cap hell thing, I hope I am still here when people start to understand why we avoid the cap hell every year. When we restructure contracts that is just moving money to later years, that eventually has to be paid. an example will be Arrington in the offseason with his 12 million cap number. He will restructure(maybe) his deal move some of the money to later years to free up some immediate cash for upcoming seasons. We do not experience these cap hits because of restructuring, or flat out cutting people, which does cost money towards the cap. Generally, so much in 1year and the remaining amount the 2nd year, depends on when they cut him before or after June 1st(I think the date is right)
Regarding the draft picks, those # 1 picks are pretty easy to pick. Those are talented guys that any owner, GM or coach can make. You cant go wrong selecting any of those guys. Granted there may be a few busts here and there, but for the most part your 1st round guys are pretty damn good players. Where our organization has problems is developing young talent and picking quality players in the later rounds. Once we get to the 3rd or 4th round we essentially waste picks(except Cooley, which is a pretty good pick) Coles deal turned out the be awful. He was never the guy we thought he would be, and we lost a ton of money on him. Fact is we never got what we put into it. Now, if we had drafted a receiver from the draft, he may or may not have turned out but we would not have lost 9 million dollars or so. Giving up draft picks for pricy free agents, or players has not proven in the last 10 years to be all that great for this team. Have we won anything, had a winning season, gone to the playoffs? NO, an infatic NO. Why people think this way of filling roster spots or picking up free agent after free agent is making us a better team, I have no idea. Since Danny took over there has not been a steady progression in this teams progress. Only when Norv was here did we see a progression that usually good teams do. Norv started out kinda bad, but his win total increased every year, with a NFC east title, and one play away from the NFC championship. Since Danny took over, and spent freely every year with this guy and that guy, traded pick after pick away, we have been at best 8-8. that is pretty damn bad concidering we generally have the highest payroll every year, and I believe 2nd highest cost of ticket prices. Hopefully Joe or whoever is here over the next several years can persuade The Danny not to put his nose in the "football" business and just write the checks. AND GET A GM FOR CRYIN OUT LOUD!!!

Re: We must draft better...
 

56Fanatic -- I believe Snyder was planning on an uncapped year this coming year which is part of the reason he's holding the CBA from being signed, and whats wrong with restructuring contracts. Every team does it and we just make it work for the player. First round picks aren't as easy as you may say, need I name a few Redskins players drafted in the first round to remind you that it's not a given? We've picked up incrediable talent that people ahead of us missed, Rogers looks to be the best CB thus far in the rookie class this years yet was 3rd CB taken.

While I agree that you have to develop and scout later round picks better, I think we've done a fairly decent job. Rock, Nemo, (I still have faith) McCune, etc.

As far as Coles, let's look at Coles who went to the Pro Bowl in Spurrier's system. Coles was built for that kind of offense and he made HUGE plays. He also got hurt which limited his best skill -- speed. Coles put up monster numbers when he was in an offense that suited him, just like Portis averaged about 5 YPC in denver and it drops to 3.something in Washington. He was in an offense that suits them.

I often wonder what today's "stars" would be if they weren't in the scheme they were in.

Re: We must draft better...
 

[QUOTE=#56fanatic]Boy, where does one start. The cap hell thing, I hope I am still here when people start to understand why we avoid the cap hell every year. When we restructure contracts that is just moving money to later years, that eventually has to be paid. an example will be Arrington in the offseason with his 12 million cap number. He will restructure(maybe) his deal move some of the money to later years to free up some immediate cash for upcoming seasons. We do not experience these cap hits because of restructuring, or flat out cutting people, which does cost money towards the cap. Generally, so much in 1year and the remaining amount the 2nd year, depends on when they cut him before or after June 1st(I think the date is right)
Regarding the draft picks, those # 1 picks are pretty easy to pick. Those are talented guys that any owner, GM or coach can make. You cant go wrong selecting any of those guys. Granted there may be a few busts here and there, but for the most part your 1st round guys are pretty damn good players. Where our organization has problems is developing young talent and picking quality players in the later rounds. Once we get to the 3rd or 4th round we essentially waste picks(except Cooley, which is a pretty good pick) Coles deal turned out the be awful. He was never the guy we thought he would be, and we lost a ton of money on him. Fact is we never got what we put into it. Now, if we had drafted a receiver from the draft, he may or may not have turned out but we would not have lost 9 million dollars or so. Giving up draft picks for pricy free agents, or players has not proven in the last 10 years to be all that great for this team. Have we won anything, had a winning season, gone to the playoffs? NO, an infatic NO. Why people think this way of filling roster spots or picking up free agent after free agent is making us a better team, I have no idea. Since Danny took over there has not been a steady progression in this teams progress. Only when Norv was here did we see a progression that usually good teams do. Norv started out kinda bad, but his win total increased every year, with a NFC east title, and one play away from the NFC championship. Since Danny took over, and spent freely every year with this guy and that guy, traded pick after pick away, we have been at best 8-8. that is pretty damn bad concidering we generally have the highest payroll every year, and I believe 2nd highest cost of ticket prices. Hopefully Joe or whoever is here over the next several years can persuade The Danny not to put his nose in the "football" business and just write the checks. AND GET A GM FOR CRYIN OUT LOUD!!![/QUOTE]

One of these days I'm going to create a cookie cutter post to put up whenever somebody misunderstands the salary cap as is done in this post.

First off, Snyder is a great business man. He has people who can project the salary cap limits in future years based on the league's growing finances. Actually, as smart as Snyder is with numbers, he can probably do it himself in his head.

The signing bonuses are only part of the equation. The team schedules roster bonuses to occur in lumpsum halfway through the contracts. These bonuses make it very easy for the team to keep the player by restructuring them to signing bonuses. Because of the growth taking place in NFL salaries, once players are 3 years removed from their original signing bonus, the allocated portion of said bonus takes up a lot lower % of the growing salary cap limit. That growing limit is why we never run into "cap hell."

While our cap figure for 2006 looks crappy now, it's very easy for the Skins to fit under the 2006 limit just by cutting a few chumps like Matt Bowen, and then restructuring a bunch of roster bonuses. Our cap figure will come down by about $20 million from where it is now, and we won't have to get rid of any core players. And in future years, the cap will either cease to exist or continue to grow. And Snyder's financial projections will be right on the money.

Re: We must draft better...
 

On draft picks, the "risk" of missing on players you pick is part of the reason it makes sense to trade picks away. For example, we traded a 5th round pick for James Thrash. What are the chances that you're going to find a guy in the draft with a 5th round pick to become more of a sure thing than Thrash is? He's a known commodity, you're getting a good special teams player for a pick that would likely turn into a nobody of a player.

Same thing can be said for the Cooley trade. Gibbs was so confident that Cooley was a sure thing, that he felt comfortable giving up a 2nd rounder the next year. He felt Cooley was more certain to be effective than a player he might find in the 2nd round next year. And so far, we can't complain on that one.

The Campbell trade appears dubious because we gave up so much. But the same line of thinking applies, Gibbs apparently feels that Campbell really is that much of a sure thing to develop into an effective player. Enough that he'll be worth what all those picks could have turned into. To be fair, we have to wait and see on that one.

Champ and a 2nd rounder for Portis seems like a lot though. I'll agree that was a wasted pick.

Re: We must draft better...
 

[QUOTE=Daseal]56Fanatic -- I believe Snyder was planning on an uncapped year this coming year which is part of the reason he's holding the CBA from being signed, and whats wrong with restructuring contracts. Every team does it and we just make it work for the player. First round picks aren't as easy as you may say, need I name a few Redskins players drafted in the first round to remind you that it's not a given? We've picked up incrediable talent that people ahead of us missed, Rogers looks to be the best CB thus far in the rookie class this years yet was 3rd CB taken.

While I agree that you have to develop and scout later round picks better, I think we've done a fairly decent job. Rock, Nemo, (I still have faith) McCune, etc.

As far as Coles, let's look at Coles who went to the Pro Bowl in Spurrier's system. Coles was built for that kind of offense and he made HUGE plays. He also got hurt which limited his best skill -- speed. Coles put up monster numbers when he was in an offense that suited him, just like Portis averaged about 5 YPC in denver and it drops to 3.something in Washington. He was in an offense that suits them.

I often wonder what today's "stars" would be if they weren't in the scheme they were in.[/QUOTE]

As I stated there are some picks in the 1st round that did not work out. But Arrington, Samuels, Jansen, Taylor, come on! And later picks getting better. Are Nemo, McCune playing? Not that I have noticed. If they were good they would be playing, and its not like we have a great short yardage guy, which Nemo was brought in to do. McCune, I actually think he could be a good player, but I may be wrong. He isn't playing on special teams, and he was special teams player of the year for Louisville. ROck is playing special teams, and contributes when called upon. As far as Coles goes, he made the probowl, as an alternate. and Monster year, he never led the Skins in TDs in any of the years he was here. and averaged about 6 yards a catch. Stud? Waste of money and a #1 draft pick. You can not plan on an uncapped year, that is just rediculous. What happens if you spend till you can spend anymore and there is a cap, then what do you do. that is crazy.

Re: We must draft better...
 

[QUOTE=Schneed10]One of these days I'm going to create a cookie cutter post to put up whenever somebody misunderstands the salary cap as is done in this post.

First off, Snyder is a great business man. He has people who can project the salary cap limits in future years based on the league's growing finances. Actually, as smart as Snyder is with numbers, he can probably do it himself in his head.

The signing bonuses are only part of the equation. The team schedules roster bonuses to occur in lumpsum halfway through the contracts. These bonuses make it very easy for the team to keep the player by restructuring them to signing bonuses. Because of the growth taking place in NFL salaries, once players are 3 years removed from their original signing bonus, the allocated portion of said bonus takes up a lot lower % of the growing salary cap limit. That growing limit is why we never run into "cap hell."

While our cap figure for 2006 looks crappy now, it's very easy for the Skins to fit under the 2006 limit just by cutting a few chumps like Matt Bowen, and then restructuring a bunch of roster bonuses. Our cap figure will come down by about $20 million from where it is now, and we won't have to get rid of any core players. And in future years, the cap will either cease to exist or continue to grow. And Snyder's financial projections will be right on the money.[/QUOTE]

I found an artice that basically says exactly what I have been saying about all this restructuring and reworking of the bonuses that you and other people seem to think they dont hurt our cap figures down the road.





In our example, let's say the Falcons need to save some extra space so they need to restructure some contracts. Say it is the offseason prior to Year 3 of Ed's contract, so it would not be a good idea to cut him (would add an extra $1 million to the Falcons cap). So they decide to restructure Ed's contract. A common form of restructuring is lowering the player's base salary. In this case, the Falcons can lower Ed's base salary of $1.5 million to $500,000. Now the Falcons have cleared $1 million off Ed's contract. But now what happens to that $1 million? Usually teams treat it as a signing bonus. In that way, it becomes prorated over the remaining years of his contract just like a normal signing bonus. That means that there will be a $333,333 cap hit ($1 million / 3 years) in Years 3, 4, and 5. Although this frees up $666,667 in cap space in Year 3, it adds an additional $333,333 to the Falcons cap in Years 4 and 5.
So although restructuring is a quick way to gain cap space without losing a player, but it also can hurt a team down the road. When you begin to restructure contracts with large bonuses, it can be very detrimental to the salary cap in future years.

Now, I dont see how people can keep arguing with me in regards to all this restructing crap. It says it right here, load and clear.

Re: We must draft better...
 

Still waiting for that cap hell...

:sleep:

Re: We must draft better...
 

[QUOTE=Mattyk72]Still waiting for that cap hell...

:sleep:[/QUOTE]

How come this is hard to understand? We avoid every year by reworking contracts. Further moving the cap hits later in years. eventually you have to pay the contracts. Here is another article from a cap person



Teams also gain a degree of flexibility from the contract length and the early cheap years. This means that a player who in effect is being paid five or six million per year has less of an impact on the salary cap his first couple of seasons than in the outyears. Of course eventually you have to pay the piper. Often the length of the contract extends beyond the likely career of a given player, or the latter year salary levels are so high its obvious the player will be cut rather retained.

Such contracts are virtually certain to lead to “dead money” at some future date. Obviously we can only estimate what that will be for a given contract, but it’s still very real. This is what I mean by “cap overhang”: unamortized bonus money likely to become dead money in the future. In effect, teams are trading off the future for the present.

Re: We must draft better...
 

[QUOTE=#56fanatic]How come this is hard to understand? We avoid every year by reworking contracts. Further moving the cap hits later in years. eventually you have to pay the contracts. Here is another article from a cap person[/QUOTE]

Like I said, still waiting.

Snyder has been running the team for 5 years now. Shouldn't we be paying the piper already? Where is this cap hell that is supposed to ruin the team?

Snyder knows how to massage the cap better than just about anyone. Why is that so hard to understand??

What the Skins do isn't exclusive to them. Every team re-works deals, every team backloads deals, etc. Why is that so hard to understand?

Re: We must draft better...
 

[QUOTE=#56fanatic]How come this is hard to understand? We avoid every year by reworking contracts. Further moving the cap hits later in years. eventually you have to pay the contracts. Here is another article from a cap person



Teams also gain a degree of flexibility from the contract length and the early cheap years. This means that a player who in effect is being paid five or six million per year has less of an impact on the salary cap his first couple of seasons than in the outyears. Of course eventually you have to pay the piper. Often the length of the contract extends beyond the likely career of a given player, or the latter year salary levels are so high its obvious the player will be cut rather retained.

Such contracts are virtually certain to lead to “dead money” at some future date. Obviously we can only estimate what that will be for a given contract, but it’s still very real. This is what I mean by “cap overhang”: unamortized bonus money likely to become dead money in the future. In effect, teams are trading off the future for the present.[/QUOTE]

I think it would help if you specify your sources-link and person, just so you know whou you're referring to.

Re: We must draft better...
 

[QUOTE=Mattyk72]Like I said, still waiting.

Snyder has been running the team for 5 years now. Shouldn't we be paying the piper already? Where is this cap hell that is supposed to ruin the team?

Snyder knows how to massage the cap better than just about anyone. Why is that so hard to understand??

What the Skins do isn't exclusive to them. Every team re-works deals, every team backloads deals, etc. Why is that so hard to understand?[/QUOTE]

HELLO!!! McFly, the constant turnover, cutting of players here or there, restructing of contracts, reworking bonuses, this is how we avoid it. No it isn't exclusive to them. Teams have cap troubles. Remember the 49ers, Cowboys who reworked all those deals, bonuses , contracts , free agent signings, once the players were too old and diminished talent they had to cut them, trade em what ever. How long did it take the Cowboys to get out of there mess, 3 to 4 years, the 49 ers just recently got out of their cap trouble. Titans, after all the years of stuff they did to compete are in it now. I am done with this. I have provided two articles regarding cap implications, how these thing work and people still question not necessarily me, but what the articles are saying. Better yet, why dont the people saying we will not have cap problems find articles supporting there version of the cap and how it works. Like I said, I supplied 2 showing exactly what I have been saying.

Re: We must draft better...
 

I guess we're just arguing to which the degree this supposed cap hell is.

I'm saying we're never going to see the Redskins have a firesale like the Titans did last offseason, where their hands are tied and they are forced to part ways with key players.

The Skins have managed to avoid major problems by re-working deals and getting rid of excess baggage along the way (Trotter, Coles, etc.)

I'm well aware the potential is there with this method of cap mgmt., but again, I doubt we'll ever see "cap hell" to the degree that some other teams have faced.

Snyder always has a 3-year revolving cap plan in place, and therefore they are able to avoid many common mistakes other teams make. They take into account the dead cap space available and use it almost as a tool when calculating their cap space.

Re: We must draft better...
 

Here's some interesting quotes from a Vinny C. interview on extremeskins:

[url="http://www.extremeskins.com/forums/showthread.php?t=114278"]http://www.extremeskins.com/forums/showthread.php?t=114278[/url]

On the salary cap is it a process where Snyder does that or where you and the coaches are involved with that?


[quote]
Vinny Cerrato

Everybody's involved because everybody has to understand it because it impacts so much of what we do because it's all about choices. If you sign this guy then how does that hurt you in the future.

Had we signed, say, Fred Smoot, how does that effect you this year, the next year and the following year? Everything we do is planned out three years. It's budgeted out three years. If you do this thing right now and it's budgeted this way and the cap numbers are this, then in the future you can't do this or you can do that.

Everything you do kind of drives the other things you can and can't do.[/quote]




Follow question

With everything being budgeted out three years, how does that work where you have somewhat surprising moves with Coles? The release of Trotter the year before? How does the budgeting plan than you have in place work with the changes in systems and philsophies recently?


[quote]
Vinny Cerrato

You have to stay somewhat flexible.

That's why if you sign guys like that (Coles and Trotter) and you're so tight against the cap you have no flexibility to do anything. In the case like Tennessee this past year they couldn't even dress their full allotment of players on game day because they had no cap room.[/quote]

How is it that every year the "media" tells the world that the Redskins will be in cap hell, but yet it never comes about...Do they not understand the basics behind the cap or is the cap as difficult to understand as the tax system?


[quote]
Vinny Cerrato

It's about planning and it's about budgeting. It's about knowing what you can and can't do. The thing that we have an advantage of over most teams is that cash creates cap. Our owner allows us to spend cash which creates cap room. What we do historically is we give big signing bonuses and then small Paragraph 5s, which makes the cap number smaller, which allows you to have more players.

When you see these big signing bonuses they are spread out over seven years. What we've learned over the years is not to overpay older guys. If you'll notice all the guys we're paying larger signing bonuses to are young guys who can play out the contract so their cap burns off every year.

In a situation like Coles, which is not normal, we took a big cap hit, but by getting Chris Samuels done it allowed us to take his whole hit this year. After this year we have zero left of Laveranues' cap. We're taking over a $9 million cap hit this year, but after this season we have no more cap room of Laveraneus.

We weren't allowed to do certain things because of this. It limited some of the things we could and couldn't do, but it was all planned and budgeted out.[/quote]

Re: We must draft better...
 

[QUOTE=TAFKAS]I think it would help if you specify your sources-link and person, just so you know whou you're referring to.[/QUOTE]

This one came from falcfans.com / salary cap tutorial & faq.



In our example, let's say the Falcons need to save some extra space so they need to restructure some contracts. Say it is the offseason prior to Year 3 of Ed's contract, so it would not be a good idea to cut him (would add an extra $1 million to the Falcons cap). So they decide to restructure Ed's contract. A common form of restructuring is lowering the player's base salary. In this case, the Falcons can lower Ed's base salary of $1.5 million to $500,000. Now the Falcons have cleared $1 million off Ed's contract. But now what happens to that $1 million? Usually teams treat it as a signing bonus. In that way, it becomes prorated over the remaining years of his contract just like a normal signing bonus. That means that there will be a $333,333 cap hit ($1 million / 3 years) in Years 3, 4, and 5. Although this frees up $666,667 in cap space in Year 3, it adds an additional $333,333 to the Falcons cap in Years 4 and 5.
So although restructuring is a quick way to gain cap space without losing a player, but it also can hurt a team down the road. When you begin to restructure contracts with large bonuses, it can be very detrimental to the salary cap in future years.

2nd one came from football outsiders.com Capanomics II cap management strategies.

I’d like to introduce another term: “Cap Overhang”. These are bonus payments that will not be amortized over the life of the contracts of players currently with the team. We all know that NFL teams sign players to very long contracts that include up front bonuses, and to measure the value of the contract against the salary cap, those bonuses are amortized (evenly spread on an annual basis) over the length of the contract. These contracts typically have very low salary levels in the early years, escalate to “normal” levels in the middle (say the third and fourth years), and then typically include some very high salary years at the end. These last years are not intended to be paid — the players are usually cut instead — but exist in order to extend the amortization period to lower the immediate cap impact.

This is really a pretty efficient form for a contract in the NFL. It gives the player what he needs most, guaranteed cash, and gives the team a high degree of flexibility to cut the player rather than pay him if his skills decline through age or injury. Of course they’re left with dead cap money, but at least they’re not forced to throw good money after bad as per baseball contracts.

Teams also gain a degree of flexibility from the contract length and the early cheap years. This means that a player who in effect is being paid five or six million per year has less of an impact on the salary cap his first couple of seasons than in the outyears. Of course eventually you have to pay the piper. Often the length of the contract extends beyond the likely career of a given player, or the latter year salary levels are so high its obvious the player will be cut rather retained.

Here are some quotes from CBS sportsline.com regarding cap numbers :


In recent years, the 49ers, Packers, Steelers and Cowboys have all seen juggernauts torn apart because their front offices planned for today with little regard for tomorrow.

Here is another article from the post-gazette.com regarding the steelers pending cap problems by doing the same thing we do.



[url="http://www.post-gazette.com/insider/"][img]http://www.post-gazette.com/includes/images/120x90bgisignup.gif[/img][/url]
[url="http://www.post-gazette.com/insider/bg"][img]http://www.post-gazette.com/includes/images/120x30bglogin.gif[/img][/url]
[url="http://www.post-gazette.com/steelers/steelerbars.asp"][img]http://www.post-gazette.com/includes/images/120x90steelersbars.gif[/img][/url]
[url="http://post-gazette.salary.com/"][img]http://www.post-gazette.com/includes/images/120x60salarygeneric.gif[/img][/url]
[img]http://www.post-gazette.com/includes/images/blank.gif[/img] [img]http://www.post-gazette.com/includes/wider/images/468X40maststeelersnfl.gif[/img] [b]Cap games costly in long run[/b]

Friday, March 04, 2005

By Ed Bouchette, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette


Are the Steelers mortgaging their future to try to keep their team together?

That's the opinion of some NFL executives, and maybe one of their own, as the Steelers voraciously restructure contracts to retrofit their salary cap.

They reworked at least four contracts the past week to clear $5 million worth of salary cap room for 2005. But in the NFL's world of the hard salary cap, that room doesn't magically appear -- or disappear.

The room created today must be made up tomorrow, which reduces their salary caps in future years. Once begun, it's a vicious cycle that ultimately must be confronted, like paying the minimum on a credit-card bill.

Despite $5 million in restructured savings, the Steelers were only $1.7 million under the NFL's $85.5 million salary cap. They might have to restructure more contracts as they sign their draft picks, possible free agents and extend contracts to such players as Hines Ward and Casey Hampton, who enter the final year of their deals.

The Steelers, who once stood steadfast against such tactics, began restructuring contracts to create immediate salary cap relief about three years ago and have routinely done so since then. Dan Rooney, their chairman, long opposed the strategy, believing it to be an unsound way to operate under the salary cap. Nevertheless, they continue to do it.

"You're pushing your problems into the future," an executive from another NFL team said. "It's not a solid way to do it. You can avoid it for a while, but eventually it will catch up to you." Other NFL teams have done it, some wholly embracing the idea as a way to keep a good team together. But their financial judgment day arrived, and it forced them to dump players in order to comply with the salary cap. An example of that this year is Tennessee. Jacksonville, San Francisco and Baltimore are teams that also had to purge players in recent years because of contract restructures that ultimately caught up to them. "They're going to get into trouble," said one team financial officer. "You can't keep pushing it on to other years. It's going to catch up with you."





Now, there is 3 to 4 different people, atricles, executives, capologists, experts that say what we do will eventually catch up to us. Not in a year two years, eventually. As long as we continue to restructure, renegoiate, whatever, we just keep putting it off until the future.

Do you need anymore proof?

Re: We must draft better...
 

see above

Re: We must draft better...
 

[QUOTE=Mattyk72]see above[/QUOTE]


saw it. This is getting a bit out of hand. Skins are creating cap room by negotiating contract or renegotiating contracts, and turning roster bonuses and insentives into signing bonuses. When all this comes to fruition you will all see what I am talking about and everyone else is talking about. I am done with it. Its a never ending argument.

Re: We must draft better...
 

LOL ok, call me in 5 years and we'll see where we stand.

Can't wait for the cap crash!

:rolleyes:

Re: We must draft better...
 

[QUOTE=#56fanatic]saw it. This is getting a bit out of hand. Skins are creating cap room by negotiating contract or renegotiating contracts, and turning roster bonuses and insentives into signing bonuses. When all this comes to fruition you will all see what I am talking about and everyone else is talking about. I am done with it. Its a never ending argument.[/QUOTE]

Believe it or not, most people who have been debating you have a clear understanding of the fact that the Skins have been manipulating the cap. Unlike you, they also understand that manipulating the cap in an intelligent fashion is a working business model under the current CBA that has allowed us to sign and retain good talent over the last 5 years.

And as for your several articles - They are about as incisive as a cold butter knife cutting icecubes. They are pretty much cap 101. Snyder & Co. have moved into advanced cap management - something you don't seem willing or are unable to do.

More importantly - Still waiting for the specifics of how the Skins manipulation fo the cap has actually hurt us in the past and who you expect to lose. You think doom is coming and yet, when caught by an unexpected cap hit, we absorb a 9M hit and move on without cutting anybody AND signing Moss, Patten, Rabach.

Spouting of vague predictions of doom without specifics is easy. Come on man, Lay it on the Line - Who we gonna lose and when? I'll make it easier for you - Name me 5 current "core" Redskins you think are endanger of being cut FOR CAP PURPOSES. If two of them are cut this offseason, I'll do a public apology in a new thread.

As for those articles that predict our eventual disaster - Well, if its in print, it MUST be true.

Re: We must draft better...
 

Man, all these numbers. Why not talk about something like if Rock runs for over 100 yards in his last game and Betts runs for 6 in his last game. Who will back up Portis Sunday against Dallas and why?

Re: We must draft better...
 

[QUOTE=firstdown]Man, all these numbers. Why not talk about something like if Rock runs for over 100 yards in his last game and Betts runs for 6 in his last game. Who will back up Portis Sunday against Dallas and why?[/QUOTE]


Betts will back up because he's the better back, how many yards did Rock have against the Cardinals? Betts didn't get many carries and got a big first down on 4th and short, Rock had a nice game against a lowsey Ram defense, I do like Rock but not ahead of Betts.

Re: We must draft better...
 

56fanatic, you're preaching to the choir. I understand how player salaries are renegotiated into signing bonuses. What you're failing to see is that is a good thing, not a problem.

Every time we cut a Coles or Trotter and eat a big sum of dead money, there are a huge number of players we have at cap bargains. This year we're eating $9 million on Coles, but we also have players at these bargains:
Portis $2.4 million
Griffin $1.9 million
Springs $2.4 million
Brunell $2.4 million
Jansen $2.1 million
R Thomas $2.0 million
M Washington $1.7 million

Now you're right, we'll have to eat a big number on one or two of those guys sometime very soon. Brunell is the one that comes to mind. But we'll never reach "cap hell" because we'll have other players on our roster at big time bargains, just like we do now.

If you think it's cap hell to have to eat $9 million in dead money for a Coles deal, then I think you're overreacting. That's something that every team deals with. But if you're talking cap hell where we have to dismantle our team like the Titans did, you're just wrong.

Re: We must draft better...
 

[QUOTE=#56fanatic]saw it. This is getting a bit out of hand. Skins are creating cap room by negotiating contract or renegotiating contracts, and turning roster bonuses and insentives into signing bonuses. When all this comes to fruition you will all see what I am talking about and everyone else is talking about. I am done with it. Its a never ending argument.[/QUOTE]

The only reason this is a never ending argument is because you're failing to see the complete picture. Yes, renegotiating delays the cap hit. But you're not seeing how fast the salary cap is growing. You can afford to delay cap hits when the salary cap limit is expected to grow $7-$10 million from 2005 to 2006. It will then grow another $7-8 million from 2006 to 2007. You're not understanding that the salary cap limit changes.

That's why we never run into a cap hell. The delays from renegotiating are carefully budgeted into the expected growth in the salary cap limit. As long as your cap overhang is growing at the same rate or slower than the salary cap limit is growing, then you're in great shape. That's what Snyder has been doing for the last 5 years.

Re: We must draft better...
 

[QUOTE=JoeRedskin]An interesting and informative analysis. Clearly, we haven't hit on all draft choices. But, before claiming that our lower round drafting is abysmal, how does the Skins draft record compare to other teams. Perhaps it is higher than all but a few teams. Maybe not. Just don't know. The draft is a crap shoot. Also, to be truly comparitive of DRAFTING ability, you have to take into account whether the players are still in the league (Smoot).[/QUOTE]

It's not better then the steelers

Re: We must draft better...
 

Question for you guys?

I know that we dont have our first rounder this year for J. Campbell. And maybe not our 4th or 2nd?

But after ths 2006 draft, will we have all our picks back for the 2007 draft> That way we can start building again...

Re: We must draft better...
 

I just had to come back and see what you people had to say about me and my post regarding the cap. Of course I supply the articles that show how teams run into the problems they do. And of course, the Redskins are above all other 31 teams and have a magical cap that no one else understands and no one else in the league has figured out. I forgot that most of our stuff is done in fantasy land, what am I thinking? You wanted proof of where I get my info, I gave it to you and you say that its not worth anything, that absolutely cracks me up. This is from a CAPOLOGIST, who does this, who knows the cap. How you and everyone else can discredit a capologist is beyond me. Of course Vinney and Dannys minions are going to say what they say. You quoted a redskin article. Are they going to come out and say we are mortgaging our future every year by handling contract this way, NO, HELL NO. they are going to say it, we have a plan, 3 year plan. Well , yeah, all these players they have now are young. and they can rework the deals to create cap room for upcoming years. But what are they going to do when these players are getting old and have to be cut, because that is what they are going to have to do. They are not going to be able to pay these backloaded deals. LaVar is a perfect example, 12 million, now you can rework it to save for the next 3 years, but when that 3 years is up, rework again? you have to pay the contracts eventually, You cannot run from it. Ask 49ers, Cowboys, Titans. You have to pay these off eventually, they dont go away, the debt just doesn't disappear. Like I said, maybe not next year or the year after, but when Portis, Arrington, Washington , Griffin, Taylor, Moss, when all these guys are getting older and it a decision do you pay them the 10 million or cut them? And when you cut them, yeah you may not pay the 10 million all in one year, but you still have to pay it over two year period. Are they going to do that with everyone? Is everyone going to be willing to renegotiate there contract? Dont think that every person here is loyal to this franchise because that is in no way the case. Samuels refused to rework his deal until his contract was up. They decided to pay him the 9 million the last year of his deal, but that was because they had to let players go, rework some deals here and there, which is all fine and dandy if other players agree to do it. This is all on assumption that players are willing to do these things, and Samuels is an example that no everyone is going to do it. Dont worry fellas, when all this happens I will hopefully be out here to say I dont you so. It may be 3 years, 5 years however many years, but it will happen. You cant keep putting off the payment of these contracts forever.


You know, you all questioning what a capologist does, is like questioning Bill Gates on Microsoft. Now you are going to say I am questioning Vinny, Well, tell me somebody that is going to come out and say his business is in 3 years going to have to make major cuts, cut costs and we are going to struggle for the 3 or 4 years, but we'll be back. Nobody, they will say down the end that we have plan, everything is great, we are thriving, ENRON, ring a bell. I am using that as an example of people who run businesses not telling you truth about what is going on. But, I guess Vinny, Danny and the minions always tell the truth, I forgot they are the gods, the greatest management ever assembled, the greatest owner and yes men ever, thats why our best record is 8-8 in 8 years.

Re: We must draft better...
 

LOL nevermind.

We'll check back in 3-5 years when the Skins are burning in cap hell. :FIREdevil

:banghead: