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Originally Posted by Skinzman
We are talking about what was going on inside of someone elses head, we have no choice but to deal in maybes.
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I think we can discuss draft choices without wandering off into speculation or dealing in maybes. But as this thread illustrates, its not the only way.
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As far as miscalculating where a pick will go. You rate someone as a 5th round pick, he gets taken in the 3rd round. Using hindsight, that does not mean that you should have picked that player in round 2 (or earlier in round 3 if you pick before the team that took him). The best GM's stay true to their board and pick best available (granted thats taking into account that they are good talent evaluators in the first place).
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Every team has a draft board and most teams say they pick best player available. If a team says they stayed true to their board it doesn't necessarily make them right. Only time can answer that question. So back to your example lets say a team liked Russell Wilson but figured he would be available in the 5th round (or like the Redskins admitted the 4th round) but Wilson gets taken in the 3rd round then yes the teams that passed on him with the thought that he would be available later miscalculated his availability and therefore made a mistake. It happens all the time, even the best GM hit about a rate of ~60 so there will be mistakes/misses of omission or commission every draft. So extending your line of though further (even though its not my point in regards to the QB) Bill Parcels or Polian one of the 2 says 'its better to take a player you like 1 round early then 1 pick to late'