[Macro]

"Why would Cousins sign the tag, why wouldn't he just not sign it?"

Because that would ultimately be self defeating. He would be removing himself from the market, on purpose, and be in self imposed limbo.

The teams that were all lining up to write him a contract in (supposedly) free agency, would then see that he's neither signed, nor under contract, and they would have to start to make plans in lieu of his situation.

That would negatively affect his ability to do the two main things he's been telling everyone, up to and including prior to the SuperBowl, that of wanting to choose his team as well as secure the LTC representative of a franchise QB.

So Cousins signs the tag. That should go without saying.


Another argument floating around. Cousins will just sign the tag and fold his arms and say that "he'll not negotiate with anyone."

This also doesn't make sense to me.

Firstly, he doesn't have a choice. Once he signs the Tag, he's under contract. Bruce can trade him to whoever he wants. Bruce can threaten to send him to Buffalo, or Miami, or wherever.

All that that is simply saying is that Cousins would be sent to team not of his choosing, to a team he wasn't fond of. That's the threat if he doesn't want to comply.

Yeah, perhaps that's an empty threat by Bruce (if he were indeed to make it). Maybe that's just me projecting an example onto the situation that doesn't carry water.

But it applies, if you ask me. The threat of sending Cousins to Buffalo for a 6th round pick ... of course Buffalo would pay a 6th for Cousins. Are you going to tell me that in this year's draft, by the time we get to the 6th round, that the available QBs are going to be anywhere nears to as good as Cousins? No way.

So, of course it's a bluff, intended to see if Cousins would call, but ultimately it's about Bruce offering a better option at the same instance. That of going to Cousins' first choice team, to send him to the place he already wants to be instead of a place he doesn't want to be.



Secondly, the more obvious reason, no sports agent on the planet is going to advice their client not to sign a 90 million dollar guaranteed contract in order to stay on a 34 (or 28) million dollar contract, one that would ultimately see him riding the bench and collecting dust.


Of course McCartney would advise Cousins to negotiate a LTC with Elway/Denver in order to receive the 5 year 90 guaranteed deal. And of course Elway would offer that so as to lock into Bruce's cost of a 3rd round pick.

Buttressed by the fact that a team like the Jets, who have a HC and Front Office personnel whose jobs are hanging in the balance, who is a team that is desperate for competent QB play, would be more than willing to give a throw away 3rd round pick for Cousins, but who more than likely would be the team to offer even more than that, more than Denver, in order to secure Cousins.

Because the Jets ultimately know what we all know, which is they cannot sell their organization to Cousins in the same way that Denver can, despite the Bates connection.

That, IF, this scenario were that Cousins was a free agent, that the Jets would lose out on him to a team like Denver.

So ... in a situation where it's no longer about Cousins being free in an open market (because the Redskins have tagged him), that it's a situation where teams need to offer a draft pick in order to secure his contractual rights, the Jets would look at that as their only chance to win out and get Cousins. Thus, they would be willing to out bid Denver, stands to reason.

And that only means that the Jets would be the team most likely to start the landslide of a bidding war for Cousins, despite him being on a one-year tender. Not only do the Jets have the cap space for 28 or 34, they know that a LTC would spread the guaranteed dollars out over 5 years. And they would simply have to convince Cousins that they were worthy.


Bruce doesn't have to ensure that Cousins would agree to a LTC with the Jets before the fact of a trade, he can accept whatever he wants and let them deal with the negotiations.

It's all about Bruce selling that he'll send Cousins to his top choice.


So when Bruce says to Elway, "hey, I bet I can get a 2nd from the Jets" ... or better yet, if/when the Jets get desperate and do offer a 2nd, Bruce can tell Elway that he'll still agree with him and take the 3rd and Talib, despite getting a high draft pick bid from the Jets.

One, that reinforces to Elway that his cost would be at a value. It also ensures that Elway becomes an additional pressure source upon McCartney for compliance. It would also reassure McCartney and Cousins to feel like Bruce would honor Cousins "#1" team, that he still has his freedom of choice, while simultaneously still getting the LTC with the guaranteed dollar threshold he wants, by willing to sign his signature to a non-disclosure form and an affidavit.

If Bruce commits to them and agrees to not double cross Cousins, to not accept any last minute bids, and if Cousins/McCartney agree to sign and not double cross the Redskins by exercising their right to solicit offer sheets (if the transition tag was placed), then all parties would ideally agree to it by March 4th, in Indy.

Just lay it all out on the table.

So, yeah.


The tag won't hit the Redskins on their cap. There won't be this long drawn out period where the Redskins are unable to sign free agents for weeks while Cousins is sitting over in the corner. Cousins will want to be where he is wanted, not with the Redskins. Cousins will also recognize that the contract is the same in the end, be it on the tag and trade or otherwise as obtained in free agency.

Same contract, same first choice team, Cousins' requirements are met.

Elway will want to secure Cousins on a cheaper cost (3rd rounder) than allow a lesser Front office like the Jets to outbid him.


This is why locking into a deal at the Combine and signing a non-disclosure ensures that his bid wins (Elway) and it eliminates any last minute, 11th hour bids, from teams like the Jets or the Browns, who have picks to burn.


A 3rd for Elway also ensures he can claim victory on the trade by not losing his 1st round, or 2nd round picks, which will both be sold as the core pieces to add to the bringing in of Cousins. The 3rd would be seen as requisite based upon what the Skins paid for Alex Smith.


Precedent seems like a big thing in the NFL. Especially recent precedent in terms of cost (like draft picks) on trades. The fact that Smith cost a 3rd means it's fundamentally sound for the Redskins to ask for a 3rd for Cousins. Especially so when many people compare the two QBs in terms of skill and style. I disagree somewhat, I lean toward Cousins as superior, kind-of heavily in fact, but that's a different thread.



Cousins would not be "hamstringing" his new team, as many have argued, at the cost of a 3rd rounder. Cousins has nothing to do with that compensation. He has no say in that whatsoever. The trade compensation is between the Redskins and Denver only.

*
Again, is someone going to argue that the QBs available in the 3rd round of the 2018 NFL Draft are going to be better than Cousins, Day 1?
Are we going to say that? Because that would be wholly incorrect, imo.


When you look at a 2018 3rd round pick in that kind of context, it puts into perspective of what Cousins is actually worth, versus what Bruce would be asking for compensation.

A 3rd is not a hefty price tag.
I might even ask folks, what round grade would you place on Cousins, as he is today, being an NFL vet, if he were placed into this years draft?

No mention of his contract size being much different, and larger, than a rookie contract, that is already understood and taken for granted, but just pure round grade on Cousins?

For me, personally, it far exceeds a 3rd rounder.
Cheap deal for Elway if you ask me. Elway's other alternative, don't give up the 3rd round and watch him go elsewhere, and Elway gets to continue to fart around with next Semian (sp), or Osweiler (sp), or whoever. *


In fact, when Bruce offers that the tag and trade could still be executed as drawn up, but only this time on the transition tag, for 28.73 instead of 34.47 on the franchise, Cousins will see that as his opportunity to give his new a "break," thus lessening what Elway would have to pay on year-one in guaranteed money.

Of course the LTC will average out to 26/27 AAV, or whatever it ends up being, but year one will have to be guaranteed at 28.73, but years 2 through 4 would probably have the base salary drop and the cap hit be like ... IDK, between 18 to 20 million. The signing bonus obviously spread out on the life of the deal.

All that means is that Elway once again can claim victory and say that in years 2 through 4, they can still be big players in FA because of how adeptly he structured Cousins new deal. And Cousins of course (by proxy of McCartney) will be ultimately enticed by the total guaranteed dollars on the deal. Which I've guesstimated at 90 million.

That's what is going to get Cousins to comply.

His only alternative would be to not sign the tag, which he won't, so it's moot.


And Bruce wants a balanced trade. Where the 3rd round pick from Denver offsets the 3rd he sent to KC for Smith. Bruce would want Talib to offset the addition of Fuller to KC in the Smith trade. Notwithstanding that Talib represents "Tampa True," so ... this whole thing, from the Elway and Shanny connection onto Cousins, to Tampa Talib and Bruce, just drips with symbolism.