Quote:
Originally Posted by AnonEmouse
I think the staff have 3 keys to decide how they approach the draft, FA and any trade option, and in this order:
1) How likely are we to have a desirable QB available at 19 without any trading up?
2) What capability do we have to trade up without giving up too much capitol?
3) If we can't get a QB at 19 (and don't see starter material in a lower pick), who is available via FA or trade that could start for at least 2 years while we look at future drafts for a long term successor?
Way I see it there are 6 teams above us that would probably take a good QB if available at their slot (I discount Jax as it's probably nailed on they take Lawrence) but I'm not sure I see any of them desperate enough to trade any further up. I'd say the Bears might trade up if they see an opportunity to get their guy. To me that says it's highly unlikely that any of the top 3 prospects are available at 19, maybe even top 4 are gone, so it's highly likely that the answer to 1 is very unlikely.
While we haven't thrown away picks recently so have some capitol to trade up, to me we'd need to be trading with maybe the Jets (very expensive) Falcons (not much cheaper) or 49ers to get a good prospect with their pick. I believe that even with an above average QB we could be competing for the East crown for 2-3 years, so our future draft position is likely to be mid round. We'd have to therefore give up more picks than a team like the Panthers to move up. And we really don't want a RG3 Mk2 trade to happen. I therefore think our capability to trade up is limited (without giving away too much).
FA is limited. I only see Fitz as a possible successful 2 year starter, assuming Heinicke isn't cut out for QB1. The other options don't hold out much promise as they haven't shown any real success or are basically too old/immobile. Which would leave us with a trade, but I only see a feasible trade being Stafford or Ryan at this point and neither will come cheap (I too would love Watson but I'd say its a miracle if we could get him for much less than an entire draft worth of picks). So if we trade for either of them, we could be trading away our picks that would fetch a future franchise QB in '21 or '22.
I can't help thinking that without a massive (and dumb?) trade, we will be best served bringing in an FA to compete with Heinicke for the #1 slot this camp, then try to get a diamond in the rough development project in lower rounds, or target a guy in the 22 draft. I believe if he's still here, Smith may well be able to get our man in round 2 or 3 this year without selling off our draft.
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I keep seeing that this team, namely the defense, is "close". I beg to differ. They won a terrible division - someone had to win it. Hell, if they didn't end up beating Philly, who did all they could to give us the game, the Giants would have won the division with six wins... They played a soft schedule. 5 of the 7 wins came against backup QBs. Most teams outside this terrible division, who had their starting QB, ran up 30+ points on this team. While I believe this team is headed in the right direction, I am not agreeable to the idea that they are "close". Too many holes to fill on both sides of the ball, including the most important one - QB.
Fact is, with their current draft position, this team will have to trade up if they want to draft a highly rated QB prospect this year. I'd rather use that #19 pick for a top O lineman, DB, LB, or WR (if they don't get Robinson, Davis, Godwin, or Samuel via FA), and use the rest of the draft to stay young - BPA all the way through.
So to me, the immediate "fix" for the QB position is via free agency this year. I'm on the Tyrod Taylor train personally, but would not be mad if they went after Andy Dalton. Either guy would be an immediate upgrade, and could stabilize that position for the next 2-3 years while the future QB is groomed, and without giving up multiple picks and/or players.
I honestly do not get the Ryan Fitzpatrick love. Dude has a lot of experience, but there's a reason he has played for 25% of the teams in the league. He has a losing record, and he turns the ball over too much.