Quote:
Originally Posted by nonniey
Unfortunately the Ukraine is in a worse tactical/strategic position than they were in 2014 the last time the Russians made a major move against them (I'm not counting the Donbass situation at that level). Their fleet for all intents was wiped out in 2014 as most of their units were interned in Crimea. If the Russians want to take the whole shebang I think they could.
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The situation is interesting. Im not going to pretend to know the nuances of the past 30 years of Ukraine-Russia divorce but it seems Putin can take this as far as he wants. Parts of eastern Ukraine he could probably take in a week with his green men. Id guess he has enough clandestine forces there now to do a Crimea. Eastern Ukraine is mostly pro Russia it seems.
I just cant imagine western Ukraine or Kyiv going quietly. They are pro west and theres no way Russia will be able to get away with all the civilian deaths in Ukraine like they did in Syria. Cyber attacks or not, video will get out of crimes against humanity.
Id guess Putin takes parts of eastern Ukraine, solidifies lines and then tries to turn down the temperature. He would have achieved his goal of pouring cold water on the hopes of the people of Ukraine or Georgia ever becoming a NATO member. Perhaps they stop electing pro Nato presidents bc these campaign promises of "we will join NATO" are starting to ring hollow. Thye mght be forced to accept a more pro russian stance allowing Russia to offer them the carrot and not the stick.
Going into western Ukraine or Kyiv ... the snake might choke itself.
https://www.vox.com/22917719/russia-...nato-explained
^^^ a good basic info, how-did-we-get-here article.