Quote:
Originally Posted by Beemnseven
Perhaps I'm misreading you, but here's the way I'm seeing your posts.
You seem to resemble the thoughts of Joe Gibbs back in the 1980's when he drafted quarterbacks. He selected them, then put them on injured-reserve for years before he'd let them sniff the grass of a regular-season playing field. We all know that you can't do that anymore because you have to find out sooner rather than later what kind of player you've got.
There's no formula set in stone for when a player is ready to start. I get the idea that you believe that general managers and front office guys draft players with the long-term crystal ball in mind -- that this year, we should be drafting a replacement for say ... Clinton Portis or Santana Moss -- that the process should be in place now to groom their eventual replacements.
My argument is that they aren't looking that far ahead. The pick the guy who they think can best help their team as soon as possible.
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I believe players that are
unusually slow learners are just that,
unusual. So
in general by drafting the best available player, you are also getting a guy who in theory will be a better player as a rookie than an inferior player. There is little to debate there.
The build through the draft philosophy assumes that ALL players value as a rookie is completely unpredictable. A player is, in theory, going to be a better player in EVERY season following his rookie year. That's why teams shouldn't count on rookies to play for them. If the player is good enough, he should be perfectly capable of beating out his competition and earning a starting role. But as you stated before, it's impossible to have that sort of foresight on draft day.
The key to the philosophy is to draft at a position that is going to create a problem for the franchise if left unimproved. For us, defensive tackle is this position. Griffin is a possible (probable) cap casulty at the end of the season and Saleve'a contract expires. We NEED to get a dominant player to play that position for next year right now. IF Okoye/Branch beats out Saleve'a this season, he should start as a rookie. But he might not beat out big Joe, and thats OK because he's a
rookie. He's only going to get better.
In player eval, if we take the player of the two who helps us more this year, and not the guy who is going to be the best NFL player, we have made a draft error. That's what I'm saying. If Sean Taylor continues to regress and Kellen Winslow continues to improve (God forbid), we've made a draft error. That's what building through the draft is.