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Re: Next Year's Cap Situation
GTripp, I'm going to respond to your first post in this thread, but I'm not going to quote it because between my response and the length of your first one, I think the Warpath will crash, LOL.
First, good post. I agree with the majority of what you said. I agree that because we're going to be up against the cap for the next few seasons, we really need to hit on our draft picks, especially 2nd and 3rd round type draft picks (ahem, we need to trade out of the 6th spot) because those 2nd and 3rd rounders tend to yield the greatest talent-to-cap space ratio of all draft spots.
Your analysis is good, but I think the following things are going to ease the 2008 situation:
1) First, the 'Skins would not have cleared $10 million in cap space at this point if they did not have a plan to use it. I can see people criticizing this front office's talent evaluation skills, but they definitely know how massage the cap. The fact that they've cleared this much cap room tells me that either:
a) They're planning to trade Springs and take his cap hit all this season.
b) They're planning to cut either Archuleta or Brandon Lloyd and absorb the entire cap hit this season.
Either one of those moves would save a good chunk from the 08 cap. Clearing Archuleta or Lloyd this year would save us approx 4 million each in 08. Clearing Springs, which seems extremely likely IMHO, would save us $7.3 million in 08. I guess you had him making it to 08, so the incremental benefit to your numbers would be $5 million.
2) And the big one, they have oodles of options to restructure players. In 2008, the following players are on schedule for more than a $4 million base salary (excluding Brunell cause he'll be outta here and Springs because of reasons already mentioned): Griffin, Washington, Samuels, Jansen, Thomas, and Portis. There's an opportunity to restructure all of these contracts and save up to $10-$15 million in 08 cap space just on restructures alone. Of course, as you say, we'd kick the hit into 09 and create more headaches down the road. And as I look at 2009, I can see that being the year we decide to either "sh*t or get off the pot" with our current core of guys. That would make 2008 our last year with our current core group. And it just so happens that 2008 is also the last year of Gibbs' current contract. But as for 2008, I can see the team creating plenty of space.
If we want to have any kind of foundation to move into 2009 and beyond, we need to trade down and hit on multiple picks now. And we need to keep our draft picks in the 08 draft, and hit on those as well. Because in 2009, we're quite possibly looking at saying goodbye to a few good players.
This is not to say the Skins won't be able to restructure and create more cap room in 2009. After all, at that point the cap should be about 125 million, which gives us leeway.
But all in all your post was great because as you look at the cap situation and begin to plan for the next three years, the only logical conclusion is we need to hit on multiple draft picks and start developing talent in-house. Seems to me the team has already realized this. Hopefully we hit it big on a couple of these rooks.
Good thread.
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