What about the effect of the departure of Parcells? This article suggests that Dallas might have some problems without him in 2007:
YAP: The Dallas Cowboys
YAP= Year After Parcells. And history shows us that teams don’t usually get better once Bill Parcells leaves town …
When Bill Parcells walked away from the New York Giants following the 1990 season, the G-men were coming off a truly special year. New York went 13-3 during the regular season, their fifth 10+ win season in the previous six years. They won all three playoff games as well, earning a Super Bowl title when Scott Norwood’s kick went wide right for the Buffalo Bills. In the year following Parcells departure, Ray Handley coached the Giants to an 8-8 record. The following year, they were 6-10.
Bill Parcells walked away from the New England Patriots following a magical 1996 season. The Pats went 11-5, won a pair of playoff games, and gave Green Bay a real battle as two touchdown underdogs in the Super Bowl before falling short. In the year following Parcells departure, the Pats declined slightly, finishing the regular season with a 10-6 mark under Pete Carroll. That, too, declined the following year as well, as New England went 9-7
Bill Parcells walked away from the Jets following the 1999 campaign, after three successful seasons in New York. But the Jets only won one playoff game in those three years, and went just 8-8, failing to reach the playoffs in his final year at the helm. The Jets improved to 9-7 in the first year without him, with Al Groh as the head man, then 10-6 the next year under Herm Edwards
Last year, Dallas went 9-7, a botched field goal snap away from upsetting the defending NFC champion Seattle Seahawks in Seattle in the playoffs. For the third time in his coaching career, he left a team that had just made the playoffs. In both previous instances, the team declined in their first YAP.
The offseason talk in Dallas is all about potential. Owner Jerry Jones has been very public in his opinion that the Cowboys are primed for a Super Bowl run, and many media outlets have mirrored his optimism. I don’t. In my mind, the Cowboys have more question marks than sure things, and the vast majority of question marks are going to have to work out in their favor in order to make the postseason, let alone the Super Bowl.
Let’s start with the coaching staff. Wade Phillips is the antithesis of Parcells in the locker room, with a player friendly, laid back style. Unfortunately for Cowboys supporters, Phillips’ approach has not worked in either of his two previous stints as an NFL head coach, lasting only two years in Denver and three in Buffalo. He’s never won a playoff game, much like the Cowboys, a team that hasn’t won in the postseason since 1996. Offensive coordinator Jason Garrett is already the heir apparent for Phillips job, despite the fact that he’s never called a single play in a regular season NFL game. There will HAVE to be tension between Phillips and Garrett, given the situation, and Garrett is not someone I’d trust to call plays just yet. Bottom line: downgrade!
Tony Romo made a big splash on a national stage once Drew Bledsoe was mercifully benched. Romo went 5-1 in his first six starts, many of them national TV games. But once teams had film on the Cowboys inexperienced signal caller, Romo’s production tanked, and the Cowboys went 1-4 down the stretch, losing three of those games as home favorites. He’s no sure thing coming into 2007, that’s for sure. Throw in an aging (ancient?) receiving corps, and arguably the worst backup QB in the league (Brad Johnson, who had absolutely nothing left in the tank in Minnesota last year), and the Cowboys offense looks like a major question mark. It’s worth noting that Dallas hasn’t spent a first round draft choice on an offensive player since 1997!
The Dallas defense is just as question-filled as their offense. On the line, the Cowboys got very little out of former first rounder Marcus Spears and Chris Canty last year, a duo that combined for only 59 tackles and two sacks. LB Greg Ellis is coming off a torn ACL, with top draft pick Anthony Spencer (Purdue) expected to step right in to a starter’s role. LB Bobby Carpenter, another 1st rounder, was a major disappointment as a rookie last year. In the secondary, the Cowboys made a nice pickup with Ken Hamlin at safety, but they still haven’t found a cornerback to man the other side from Terrance Newman. Anthony Henry is clearly not the answer at that position. This defense may end up being quite good, but on paper, it reeks of mediocrity. The Cowboys ranked 20th in the NFL in points allowed last year; 24th against the pass.
So where does this leave us in our pre-preseason prognostication about the Cowboys? Right about where we were last year with this team, that’s where, with 20 of 22 starters returning. In 2006, Dallas was good, not great, compiling a 9-7 record before getting bounced out of the playoffs in the first round. Another nine win, Wild Card type season for the Cowboys seems well within reason, but it’s hard to picture a dramatic uptick that sees them win a dozen or more games, dominating the division.