Increasing taxes on cigarettes certainly can cause a decrease in the number of smokers.
ACS :: NYC Mayor Signs Law Upping Cost Of Cigarettes
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Studies have shown that when the price of cigarettes increases, the number of youth who smoke decreases. One study the mayor cited said a 22% tax increase would reduce smoking among youth by 15%. That would mean roughly 70,000 less smokers, which will prevent more than 20,000 additional premature deaths, he said.
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Economics of Tobacco - About this site
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Myth 5: Tobacco addiction is so strong that simply raising taxes will not reduce demand; therefore, raising taxes is not justified
Reality: Scores of studies have shown that increased taxes reduce the number of smokers and the number of smoking-related deaths. Price increases induce some smokers to quit and prevent others from becoming regular or persistent smokers. They also reduce the number of ex-smokers returning to cigarettes and reduce consumption among continuing smokers. Children and adolescents are more responsive to changes in the price of consumer goods than adults-that is, if the price goes up, they are more likely to reduce their consumption. This intervention would therefore have a big impact on them. Similarly, people on low incomes are more price-responsive than those on high -incomes, so there is likely to be a bigger impact in developing countries where tobacco consumption is still increasing. Models developed for this report show that tax increases that would raise the real price of cigarettes by 10 percent worldwide would cause 40 million smokers alive in 1995 to quit and prevent a minimum of 10 million tobacco-related deaths.
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I say tax the shit out of cigarettes.