The reason picking games is so hard is that even if you make the smart logical selection (i.e. the best team), you still have a good chance of being wrong.
Over the course of the season, if I say the Skins are going to go 9-7, I may miss some games here and there (they might beat GB and lose to the Cards for all I know), but at least things have a chance to even out for me, and allow my prediction to be accurate anyway. In a single game, if one team fumbles one too many times, or drops one too many interceptions, they could lose a very winnable game. Now, later that season, a team could pick up a win in similar style, a dropped INT by the opponent, or by recoving a ball the QB was stripped of.
But thats why it's pointless to debate the matchups, IMO. Theres been some great points on both sides of things that could determine the outcome of this game, but even the most fundamental of knowledges comes down to a wild guess.
I'll hold on to my Skins pick in this one, but I'd never get on anyone for taking the Dolphins. Remember, you can always defend your pick by saying "I think they will get lucky!" Then no one can argue with you