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Originally Posted by Sheriff Gonna Getcha
I saw that report and it certainly isn't encouraging. That said, why do you say it is better to hear how we are failing than to hear that we are succeeding? I guess you mean that you've pretty much determined that we cannot "win" and, therefore, any "positive reports" are pure B.S. If so, it's fair to think as much even if other reasonable people disagree.
Why do you think it is impossible, as opposed to unlikely, that we can defeat the insurgency? The notion that insurgencies cannot be defeated is a total myth. Ever since Vietnam, many people have been under the mistaken impression that it is impossible to defeat an insurgency. History, however, is replete with examples of occupying powers working in conjunction with locals to defeat insurgencies. The Brits did it in Malaya, the Germans did in all over Europe, we did it all over Central America during the 20th century, and the list goes on.
I'm not saying we will defeat the insurgency, I am just saying it is far from certain that we will not. The same people who think the insurgency cannot be defeated are the same who are saying the surge would not work and it would simply result in more death. Well, violence levels are down and AQI is all but gone. We have a LONG, LONG way to go, but I think it's a little unreasonable to say we cannot "win."
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My only comment to your analysis is that, there are a number of ways to defeat insurgents. While Germany was able to suppress insurgency, their methods during the two world wars (particularly WWII) are not acceptable to a modern democracy.
With this said, I generally agree with you. Actually, you can go back to the Napoleonic Wars and the French occupation of Spain. What is interesting in that campaign is that it contained examples of both effective and ineffective counter-insurgency in the same country. The northwest of Spain was essentially docile and safe b/c the Marshal in that region used the "carrot and stick" method with reluctant but fierce use of the "stick". In the Catalan and other southern regions, there was no "carrot" offerred just liberal and brutal applications of the stick. As a result, no French soldier was safe except in company or larger sized units.
Rebuilding an infrastructure that was barely there to start, overcoming generational hatreds, and teaching a citizenry the responsibilities that come with true democracy cannot be achieved overnight and require a long term commitment from the supporting power.
Not saying we should have been in there in the first place, but just not sure how to now get out w/out endangering what has actually been accomplished.