Quote:
Originally Posted by Sheriff Gonna Getcha
Statistically, we roughly have a 50-50 chance of drafting a bust at 21. We have about a 1 in 5 chance of drafting an immediate impact player. We have even worse odds of drafting an immediate impact player at a position of need (WR, CB, DT). In any event, it makes the most sense to draft a guy who is most likely to have a long-term impact, not a guy who is just going to fill an immediate need.
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With that said, whats the point of drafting for need if the player you draft is going to be off the team in a few years? (Taylor Jacob's anyone?) I say draft for need when it makes sense. I know it sounds obvious but it seems that lots of teams ignore common sense when it comes to the draft. Kind of like how the Chargers took LSU's slot reciever, Craig Davis, in the first round. Ironically they had to give up a 2008 2nd round pick midway through the season to acquire Chris Chambers.
Every NFL team has holes, and our's are realtively small. We can deal with not having a possible Superman at Reciever. Hell we've done it in the past and so have many other teams that did it went on to win the Super Bowl (Buc's, Ravens, Steelers, Giants (Plax isn't Randy Moss), Patriots) . With that said I want to stick to doing what we do best, identifying talented guys up front.
On a side note, lots of teams have systems, coaching, and personell set ups where they could virtually take any guy at a certain position and turn him into a quality starter. Like for example the Steelers know how to find LB's, the Colts can plug in virtually anyone at WR, LB, and CB, and the Patriots specialize in finding D-Lineman and DB's. The Redskins are best IMO at finding Offensive Lineman and Linebackers.