Quote:
Originally Posted by firstdown
Well if you look at the history of WR's in general I bet your wrong. You listed 7 WR's and there are how many that have played the game in that time span? I could go in and pick a ton in that span who's # that dropped off after 30. Its a crap shot and you think he is good for another 4 to 5 years (which I think he is) you just don't know when the body is going to turn on a player. I'm not saying your wrong I just don't think history is on your side in this situation.
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I think the money argument offered above by some is better than the age argument. I'm sure you could find plenty of WRs who dropped off after 30, but I bet they wouldn't have the credentials of Chad Johnson. The guy has 6 straight 1,000 yard seasons, has averaged 1,340 yards and 8 tds over that span (and not all those years were with Carson Palmer either before someone makes that argument). So you can't just cherry pick some WR, you have to come with perennial Pro Bowl talent whose performance dropped off after 30. I bet you will be hard pressed to find your examples.
Let's take it from 1990 and WRs with multiple Pro Bowl appearances (# of 1,000 yard seasons after 30 in parenthesis):
- Andre Reed (2, noted decline in 1999 age 35)
- Jerry Rice (see previous)
- Andre Rison (1)
- Sterling Sharpe (n/a career ending injury at age 29)
- Tim Brown (see previous)
- Gary Clark (0)
- Michael Irvin (2)
- Irving Fryar (4)
- Chris Carter (see previous)
- Herman Moore (0 - perhaps the best counter example available)
- Isaac Bruce (2 - perhaps another)
- Torry Holt (2 for 2)
- Jimmy Smith (7)
- Randy Moss (see previous)
- Eric Moulds (1)
- Terrell Owens (see previous)
- Hines Ward (0)
- Steve Smith (n/a not yet 30)
- Donald Driver (3 for 3)
I've probably spent too much time on this, but I think the point stands. It would stretch credulity to put some of the above with Johnson and, frankly, there are only a handful of guys over the past 15-20 years we probably could accurately compare him to. Isaac Bruce might provide the best counter example, but Jimmy Smith adds another example on the over 30 side. I'd say the point stands that elite receivers do not decline over 30 and that most continue to produce at a high level until around age 35, and some longer.
Dirtbag offers good reasons above for why this is, particularly the lower level of physical pounding a wide receiver takes vis-a-vis a running back.