Quote:
Originally Posted by GTripp0012
Portis is right now in the prime age for a running back, 27, but very rarely do players at age 27 have quite as many carries as Portis had in the past.
Look, if you are saying that you are 100% not concerned that we've already guaranteed Portis' 2009 salary to him, you are simply fooling yourself here.
Nobody in this thread yet believes that Portis won't be productive this season. But, again, it's hard to get a gauge on exactly why he was so unproductive (3.9 YPC, career ave. 4.5) last season. There are a bunch of possible reasons and it was probably a combination of all of them:
1) The offensive line was decimated.
2) He's been worked too hard too often. (343 carries in 2004, 352 in 2005, 325 in 2006)
3) He's been around for awhile, and it's possible his actual age is hiding the age of his body. (Broke into the NFL at age 21--7 years ago)
4) He could have been hiding an injury.
Again, probably was a combination of the first three factors there, but facts are facts, and reasons two and three are only going to get worse with time.
Of course, reason one is already fixed. So he could be in line for a career year. And one of his closest similarity scores is Emmitt Smith. He should be better than last year pretty easily. I'm just wondering how long before a 2007-type year becomes the norm for CP.
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Running backs typically fall off a cliff after they turn 30 (or after they rush for 370 carries in a single season), almost invariably actually, unless your name is Emmitt Smith or a select few others (on age rather than carries). I'd say given his size and physical style of play the same is in store for Portis. I'd point out, though, that another guy who compares favorably in terms of both size and workload with Portis is Curtis Martin. Through his first 6 seasons Martin carried the ball 2010 times while Portis has carried 1710 times. Martin remained highly productive until year 10 (when he both turned 31 and had 371 carries ... a virtual RB death sentence). I'd say we could probably expect something approaching that sort of career arch for Portis, barring a major injury of course.
The thing that ticks me off is the notion that Portis was so much better in Denver and that he has not lived up to expectations in Washington. That is the impression given, not by you obviously, but at the open of this thread. I find that frustrating and lacking perspective.
Curtis Martin Statistics - Pro-Football-Reference.com
Clinton Portis Statistics - Pro-Football-Reference.com