Quote:
Originally Posted by Schneed10
You're right in saying that the probability of having two injury-ravaged seasons in a row is much lower than having one. But that's not the issue: the issue is will this ONE season coming up in 2008 be injury-ravaged? We're not looking at two at the same time, we're looking at one season. We're looking at the NEXT coin flip. What happened last season has no bearing, the odds remain the same.
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Please note in the official warpath records that this is the first time I have ever disagreed with the very astute Schneedster.
However, I would argue that coming off an injury-ravaged year makes us MORE probable to have another one, since injuries are known to have set-backs and/or cause new injuries to occur.
It's like once you have heat-stroke, you're exponentially more likely to have it again. Once you're injured, you've very likely to be injured again.
By my math, the odds are 72.9% that we'll not have an injury-filled year. My cousin Vinny the Clam from Vegas confirmed this to be accurate.
I'm not happy about it, but the numbers don't lie.