Quote:
Originally Posted by firstdown
Well I never picked any of the playoff predictions in my post. I know each and every year we have either a stronger or weaker team based on prior years and all the other stuff that goes on. I just never go into a season thinking that we do not have a chance at the playoffs. Now I don't go into each year thinking we could win the SB but I do always hold that hope. Just look at the Giants last year and who would have thought the Giants had a chance but they found away. With that hope of making the playoffs make me feel they have a chance and I have to atleast pick them to make the playoffs.
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I definately don't think we don't have a shot at the playoffs. In fact, we have a pretty good chance at the playoffs.
Right now, we have the weakest roster in the NFC East. My predictions reflect that, as they probably should. However, we are still probably better than every team in the NFC South, every team in the AFC North, every non-Pats team in the AFC East and every non-Seattle team in the NFC West.
I don't think anyone here are writing the Redskins off. I think my, and plenty of other peoples post show that while we have a ton of concerns about our team (for example, our secondary at this time last year was twice as talented as it is right now), we remain optimistic that they could pleasantly surprise us.
Our probability spreads in Pro Football Prospectus 2008 look like this:
(0-3 wins) 3%
(4-6 wins) 40%
(7-8 wins) 35%
(9-10 wins) 18%
(11+ wins) 4%
Basically, we have about as much of a chance statistically of winning the super bowl as we do in getting the top pick in next years draft: that shouldn't surprise anyone.
This is saying that we have a 93% chance of finishing between 4 and 10 wins. I don't disagree with that (though I'd bet more heavily on 10 than 4 if I was a betting man).
So there's definately a measurable chance that we can make a playoff push. It's more unlikely than likely, but it's there, real, and we're all going to push for it.
I sort of felt like you might be questioning some people's fanhood, which is why my response was a bit edgy, but I understand now that you are just pulling for the best reasonable outcome. No hard feelings.