[Schneed10]

This is a pointless discussion anyway. Russia would not invade Poland for a number of reasons, most notably they don't want to start a nuclear standoff with the United States.

Keep in mind, just as it was in the Cold War, nobody ever launched their nukes because they knew the other side would just end up doing the same... mutually assured destruction.

No country would ever have the incentive to actually launch nukes unless:

1) The enemy's nukes were no longer a threat or
2) The country's back was against the wall and had absolutely no other recourse.