Commanders Post at The Warpath - View Single Post

44 70 chip · 11-10-2009, 08:54 PM

Stats are wonderful, they never lie... they will tell whatever story you want them to simply by using the ones you like and omitting the ones you don't. So they don't lie... but they are the favored tool of people who want to establish a conclusion that flies in the face of simple observation.

I observe (simply) that JC is overly cautious and hesitant (even when his line has been healthy) to make longer throws, so he checks down too quickly and throws the ball to safe outlet receivers too often, and that along with west coast short pass play calling handily accounts for his higher than expected completion percentage... This explanation seems far more plausible than suggesting he's actually among the best QB's in the league when he very plainly isn't. His completion % is also helped by the 3 or 4 sacks per game where he could have thrown it away. When you throw around 30 times a game 3 or 4 incompletions is a significant number.

He has a ponderous wind up, that leads to fumbles and jumped routes... he is not nearly as mobile as people give him credit for. He holds the ball too long, and he doesn't throw it away even when he can legally do so outside the tackles. He looks at the rush, instead of down field. He has ZERO pocket presence, he hears "footsteps" and steps into sacks while avoiding phantoms that aren't there... The line is awful, but he had these same issues in past seasons when the line was much better.

He is sorely lacking in fundamentals such at ball control when he's moving, and taking the snap. We've seen him coached to keep the ball high and tight to his chest with both hands when he drops back... But he always reverts back to one handing the ball down at his hips, gunslinger style. This significantly increases his already long wind up, and makes him an easy target for sack/fumbles. He appears to be hard to coach, or not smart enough to be coached, because he surely has had this drilled into him by now (along with all the other sloppy fundamentals he can't seem to shake)

And yes his WR core is thin, his O-line is old and patchwork... But in the past even when he has played his best he is a mediocre QB who starts slow and doesn't play well until the second half of games. At his best (so far) Physically he looks slower and less confident than the career backup behind him. Under current circumstances he of course looks even worse.

I'm talking about how he moves, how he takes snaps, how he throws and drops back, how he sets himself, how he carries the ball, how long he holds it... These are not rocket science and they will tell you a whole crap load more about Jason Campbell than any statistic can.

All of this is ignoring important aspects such as leadership among the players and on field trust with his coaches there's a rumor that they don't allow him to audible(!) and while he'll still have "automatics" or "hot reads" that says a lot about his ability to read defenses.

11-10-2009, 08:54 PM	#1070
44 70 chip Registered User Join Date: Nov 2009 Posts: 60	Re: Campbell's numbers dont lie Stats are wonderful, they never lie... they will tell whatever story you want them to simply by using the ones you like and omitting the ones you don't. So they don't lie... but they are the favored tool of people who want to establish a conclusion that flies in the face of simple observation. I observe (simply) that JC is overly cautious and hesitant (even when his line has been healthy) to make longer throws, so he checks down too quickly and throws the ball to safe outlet receivers too often, and that along with west coast short pass play calling handily accounts for his higher than expected completion percentage... This explanation seems far more plausible than suggesting he's actually among the best QB's in the league when he very plainly isn't. His completion % is also helped by the 3 or 4 sacks per game where he could have thrown it away. When you throw around 30 times a game 3 or 4 incompletions is a significant number. He has a ponderous wind up, that leads to fumbles and jumped routes... he is not nearly as mobile as people give him credit for. He holds the ball too long, and he doesn't throw it away even when he can legally do so outside the tackles. He looks at the rush, instead of down field. He has ZERO pocket presence, he hears "footsteps" and steps into sacks while avoiding phantoms that aren't there... The line is awful, but he had these same issues in past seasons when the line was much better. He is sorely lacking in fundamentals such at ball control when he's moving, and taking the snap. We've seen him coached to keep the ball high and tight to his chest with both hands when he drops back... But he always reverts back to one handing the ball down at his hips, gunslinger style. This significantly increases his already long wind up, and makes him an easy target for sack/fumbles. He appears to be hard to coach, or not smart enough to be coached, because he surely has had this drilled into him by now (along with all the other sloppy fundamentals he can't seem to shake) And yes his WR core is thin, his O-line is old and patchwork... But in the past even when he has played his best he is a mediocre QB who starts slow and doesn't play well until the second half of games. At his best (so far) Physically he looks slower and less confident than the career backup behind him. Under current circumstances he of course looks even worse. I'm talking about how he moves, how he takes snaps, how he throws and drops back, how he sets himself, how he carries the ball, how long he holds it... These are not rocket science and they will tell you a whole crap load more about Jason Campbell than any statistic can. All of this is ignoring important aspects such as leadership among the players and on field trust with his coaches there's a rumor that they don't allow him to audible(!) and while he'll still have "automatics" or "hot reads" that says a lot about his ability to read defenses.