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munny · 11-12-2009, 03:52 PM

No, no. (perhaps you are just messing with me)

Each week you look at the NFL games(with the betting line of course). Out of the 16 games available(obviously less during bye weeks) you would select 12 games. To win the million, you would have to get all 12 picks correct.

So, I figured 2^12 = 4096 possible combinations. So, if I was to place 4096 bets at $12.50 per play, I would spend roughly $51,000 but be assured a $1 million payout. Seems like unacceptable risk to the house.

Now, calculating the odds of hitting that without loading up every combination would be a different thing. Each game could fairly be considered to be a 50% chance of winning. Maybe shade that up to 54% or so if you are having a good year and have a good f"feel" for the games. Either way though, the odds of a single play would be pretty tall.

11-12-2009, 03:52 PM	#7
munny Camp Scrub Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 94	Re: Someone good at math... No, no. (perhaps you are just messing with me) Each week you look at the NFL games(with the betting line of course). Out of the 16 games available(obviously less during bye weeks) you would select 12 games. To win the million, you would have to get all 12 picks correct. So, I figured 2^12 = 4096 possible combinations. So, if I was to place 4096 bets at $12.50 per play, I would spend roughly $51,000 but be assured a $1 million payout. Seems like unacceptable risk to the house. Now, calculating the odds of hitting that without loading up every combination would be a different thing. Each game could fairly be considered to be a 50% chance of winning. Maybe shade that up to 54% or so if you are having a good year and have a good f"feel" for the games. Either way though, the odds of a single play would be pretty tall.