Quote:
Originally Posted by Mattyk72
Regardless of their yardage rankings, which honestly doesn't tell us very much, we've played some quality QBs/passing attacks. Manning, Romo, McNabb, Ryan, are all very worthy opponents. And then there was Orton that was tearing us up prior to getting hurt.
I do think the #1 pass ranking is a bit misleading because most of the time teams are playing us with the lead, but honestly outside of some issues here and there with giving up the big play, the pass D has been pretty solid.
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When I picked us to win 11 games this preseason, I did so because I knew we were playing Cassel, Delhomme, Leftwich/Freeman/(Johnson), Russell (now Gradkowski), Bulger, and Stafford all in the same year. Certainly, there was no guarentee we were going to win every single one of those games, and we haven't played the Raiders yet, but all those teams except one were able to get to double digits against us.
As a rule of thumb, I adjust yards per pass 0.2 over the course of a season for every well above average or well below average passing offense/defense that's played. Well, it hasn't been a whole season yet, but we're giving up 5.5 yards per pass against a league average of 6.2, which would put is 0.7 per pass attempt above the league average (that's a pretty big margin). That's 3rd best in the NFL. But we're the only team who has played 5 bad passing offenses in the same year (+1.0 YPA adjustment), and I would say we have yet to play a well above average passing offense.
That all changes this week. According to my rule of thumb, playing the Saints should force our season YPA on defense from 5.5 to 5.7, and if it doesn't, then we played much better or worse than we have this season. But, right now, our passing defense is averaging about a yard better per attempt simply because of the competition we've played. If we get to play against Drew Brees and Phillip Rivers, that will go a long way to helping the conventional stats match the opponent adjusted ones.
And those (not you Matty) who do think we have the No. 1 pass defense, well, then we should have no issue shutting down Drew Brees this week. Should be an even matchup.