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CultBrennan59 · 02-12-2010, 05:02 PM

This is a good article from Rich Tandler:

Redskins Draft Order Dilemma: QB Or OL At Number 4?

Recommend Comment(26) Email Print Sharing RSS Thursday, February 11, 2010, 8:45 PM

By Rich Tandler
Redskins Correspondent
CSNwashington.com

The NFL draft is over two months away, and Free Agency, The Combine, and Pro Day workouts have yet to take place. However premature, there is a lot of speculation as to the route the Washington Redskins will take on the first day of the draft, which occurs on prime time TV on Thursday, April 22.

The Redskins have the fourth and 36th overall picks (number 4 in round 2). The team is under extreme pressure to get these picks right. If they use them well, they will have two players who will be able to step in as starters right away and contribute. If they blow one of them, it will be a major setback.

One possible scenario that has been discussed by fans and the media would have the Redskins taking an offensive lineman with one of those top picks, and a quarterback with the other. That is logical speculation given that the O-line is in major need of rebuilding and that starting quarterback Jason Campbell will be an unrestricted free agent next year.

What is up for debate is the order in which the team should take the quarterback and lineman, probably an offensive tackle. There are those who want them to take an offensive tackle, such as Russell Okung or Anthony Davis, at the top of the draft, and then get the best available quarterback with that 36th pick. Others favor taking the quarterback first, landing someone like Sam Bradford or Jimmy Clausen, and start the offensive line rebuilding in the second round with the best lineman on the board.

In choosing between these two possibilities (and a myriad of others), one thing that Mike Shanahan must assess is the risk-reward equation. The Redskins need to avoid having one of these picks turn out to be a bust much more than they need to send both of them to the Pro Bowl.

And a look a recent draft history indicates that, if they want to go OL-QB in some order with their first two picks, they should take the quarterback early and the lineman in the second round.

We reached this conclusion by doing a study to measure the bust potential for quarterbacks and linemen selected in the first and second rounds of the draft. We used a simple measuring stick: how many games the player actually has started compared to how many games he possibly could have started. This method is far from comprehensive, but it’s a good, basic indication of whether or not a given player is a bust, or if a group of players has succeeded or failed. After all, if a first or second round player isn’t starting after a short period of time, that’s an indication that something isn’t right.

Players selected in the 2009 draft could have started 16 games; those picked on 2008 have 32 possible starts, and so on. By adding up the players’ possible starts and comparing them to their actual starts, we are able to see how much impact they had as a group, again on a very basic level.

From 2004 through 2009, 17 quarterbacks were taken in the first round. Of a possible combined 1,024 starts, the players in this group actually have started 638, or 62 percent.

In that same period of time, 27 offensive linemen were taken in the first round, and they have started 1,093 games out of a possible 1,328. That comes out to 82 percent.

Comparing first-round quarterbacks to first-round linemen, then, it would appear that if the goal is to avoid a bust, taking a lineman first is the way to go.

But let’s take a look at selections in the second round. The 29 linemen selected have started 1,077 of a possible 1,648 games, or 65 percent.

The eight second-round quarterbacks have started 49 out of 352 games. That’s a paltry 14 percent. Just looking at that number, one would have to say that the potential for a second-round quarterback being a bust is alarmingly high.

Let’s look at those second-round quarterbacks individually:

Year Team Quarterback Starts:
Actual/Possible
Percentage
2006 NYJ Kellen Clemens
9/64 14%
2006 MIN Tavaris Jackson
19/64 30%
2007 PHI Kevin Kolb
2/48 4%
2007 MIA John Beck
4/48 8%
2007 DET Drew Stanton
1/48 2%
2008 GB Brian Brohm
1/32 3%
2008 MIA Chad Henne
13/32 41%
2009 MIA Pat White
0/16 0%

No quarterbacks were drafted in the second round in 2004 or 2005.

Out of the eight names, you can indentify two who most think could end up being unquestioned starters, Kolb and Henne. If Henne can take control in Miami, White may change positions. It may be premature to write off Clemens and Jackson although neither has take possession of the job when given the opportunity to do so. It is not premature to affix the “bust” label to Beck, Stanton, and Brohm.

Just to take a peek a little further in the past, we looked back at the second-round quarterbacks in the 2000-2003 drafts. It turns out that only two quarterbacks were taken in the second round of those four drafts. Both were selected in 2001. One, Drew Brees, certainly is one quarterback who is the exception to the rule. Although he didn’t start until his second season, and was just OK that year and in 2003, he broke out in 2004 and has been a stud ever since.

The other 2001 second-rounder was Quincy Carter, drafted by the Cowboys. He did start 31 games in three seasons there, but he never developed into a solid starter, and he was out of the league after starting three games for the Giants in 2004.

One can only theorize as to why so few second-round quarterbacks work out. One possibility may be that since quarterbacks are so highly valued, teams may reach to take them. You can see some quarterbacks who may have had second-round talent--players such as J. P. Losman, Jason Campbell and Brady Quinn--being snatched up in the first round because teams are so anxious to get their signal caller. That leaves lesser talent available in the second round.

That also might account for why about half as many quarterbacks were taken in the second round (8) as in the first round (17). With the quarterback talent so depleted by the time the second round arrives, most teams may decide to address other needs there and take a flyer on a developmental quarterback later in the draft. The numbers of offensive linemen drafted early were almost evenly split between the first round (27) and the second (29).

Certainly, there is more risk taking a first-round quarterback than there is in selecting a first-round offensive lineman. But you are taking much, much less of a chance if you take an O-lineman in the second round than if you take the quarterback.

Drafting a quarterback this year is not the only option the Redskins have to address the position. But on the list of possibilities, it appears that drafting one in the second round may be the least desirable.

02-12-2010, 05:02 PM	#238
CultBrennan59 Pro Bowl Join Date: Aug 2009 Posts: 6,526	Re: Bradford/Clausen now split among Mock Drafts This is a good article from Rich Tandler: Redskins Draft Order Dilemma: QB Or OL At Number 4? Recommend Comment(26) Email Print Sharing RSS Thursday, February 11, 2010, 8:45 PM By Rich Tandler Redskins Correspondent CSNwashington.com The NFL draft is over two months away, and Free Agency, The Combine, and Pro Day workouts have yet to take place. However premature, there is a lot of speculation as to the route the Washington Redskins will take on the first day of the draft, which occurs on prime time TV on Thursday, April 22. The Redskins have the fourth and 36th overall picks (number 4 in round 2). The team is under extreme pressure to get these picks right. If they use them well, they will have two players who will be able to step in as starters right away and contribute. If they blow one of them, it will be a major setback. One possible scenario that has been discussed by fans and the media would have the Redskins taking an offensive lineman with one of those top picks, and a quarterback with the other. That is logical speculation given that the O-line is in major need of rebuilding and that starting quarterback Jason Campbell will be an unrestricted free agent next year. What is up for debate is the order in which the team should take the quarterback and lineman, probably an offensive tackle. There are those who want them to take an offensive tackle, such as Russell Okung or Anthony Davis, at the top of the draft, and then get the best available quarterback with that 36th pick. Others favor taking the quarterback first, landing someone like Sam Bradford or Jimmy Clausen, and start the offensive line rebuilding in the second round with the best lineman on the board. In choosing between these two possibilities (and a myriad of others), one thing that Mike Shanahan must assess is the risk-reward equation. The Redskins need to avoid having one of these picks turn out to be a bust much more than they need to send both of them to the Pro Bowl. And a look a recent draft history indicates that, if they want to go OL-QB in some order with their first two picks, they should take the quarterback early and the lineman in the second round. We reached this conclusion by doing a study to measure the bust potential for quarterbacks and linemen selected in the first and second rounds of the draft. We used a simple measuring stick: how many games the player actually has started compared to how many games he possibly could have started. This method is far from comprehensive, but it’s a good, basic indication of whether or not a given player is a bust, or if a group of players has succeeded or failed. After all, if a first or second round player isn’t starting after a short period of time, that’s an indication that something isn’t right. Players selected in the 2009 draft could have started 16 games; those picked on 2008 have 32 possible starts, and so on. By adding up the players’ possible starts and comparing them to their actual starts, we are able to see how much impact they had as a group, again on a very basic level. From 2004 through 2009, 17 quarterbacks were taken in the first round. Of a possible combined 1,024 starts, the players in this group actually have started 638, or 62 percent. In that same period of time, 27 offensive linemen were taken in the first round, and they have started 1,093 games out of a possible 1,328. That comes out to 82 percent. Comparing first-round quarterbacks to first-round linemen, then, it would appear that if the goal is to avoid a bust, taking a lineman first is the way to go. But let’s take a look at selections in the second round. The 29 linemen selected have started 1,077 of a possible 1,648 games, or 65 percent. The eight second-round quarterbacks have started 49 out of 352 games. That’s a paltry 14 percent. Just looking at that number, one would have to say that the potential for a second-round quarterback being a bust is alarmingly high. Let’s look at those second-round quarterbacks individually: Year Team Quarterback Starts: Actual/Possible Percentage 2006 NYJ Kellen Clemens 9/64 14% 2006 MIN Tavaris Jackson 19/64 30% 2007 PHI Kevin Kolb 2/48 4% 2007 MIA John Beck 4/48 8% 2007 DET Drew Stanton 1/48 2% 2008 GB Brian Brohm 1/32 3% 2008 MIA Chad Henne 13/32 41% 2009 MIA Pat White 0/16 0% No quarterbacks were drafted in the second round in 2004 or 2005. Out of the eight names, you can indentify two who most think could end up being unquestioned starters, Kolb and Henne. If Henne can take control in Miami, White may change positions. It may be premature to write off Clemens and Jackson although neither has take possession of the job when given the opportunity to do so. It is not premature to affix the “bust” label to Beck, Stanton, and Brohm. Just to take a peek a little further in the past, we looked back at the second-round quarterbacks in the 2000-2003 drafts. It turns out that only two quarterbacks were taken in the second round of those four drafts. Both were selected in 2001. One, Drew Brees, certainly is one quarterback who is the exception to the rule. Although he didn’t start until his second season, and was just OK that year and in 2003, he broke out in 2004 and has been a stud ever since. The other 2001 second-rounder was Quincy Carter, drafted by the Cowboys. He did start 31 games in three seasons there, but he never developed into a solid starter, and he was out of the league after starting three games for the Giants in 2004. One can only theorize as to why so few second-round quarterbacks work out. One possibility may be that since quarterbacks are so highly valued, teams may reach to take them. You can see some quarterbacks who may have had second-round talent--players such as J. P. Losman, Jason Campbell and Brady Quinn--being snatched up in the first round because teams are so anxious to get their signal caller. That leaves lesser talent available in the second round. That also might account for why about half as many quarterbacks were taken in the second round (8) as in the first round (17). With the quarterback talent so depleted by the time the second round arrives, most teams may decide to address other needs there and take a flyer on a developmental quarterback later in the draft. The numbers of offensive linemen drafted early were almost evenly split between the first round (27) and the second (29). Certainly, there is more risk taking a first-round quarterback than there is in selecting a first-round offensive lineman. But you are taking much, much less of a chance if you take an O-lineman in the second round than if you take the quarterback. Drafting a quarterback this year is not the only option the Redskins have to address the position. But on the list of possibilities, it appears that drafting one in the second round may be the least desirable. __________________ "Anyones better than Madieu Williams"