Quote:
Originally Posted by GTripp0012
I do believe your "coaches maximize win expectancy in the preseason" assumption is a tad faulty. From a pure W/L perspective, we have absolutely nothing to gain from kicking the extra point there. Might as well take a knee on the PAT try.
But for Shanahan to have made the wrong call there, we have to assume that the goal is to win the preseason game, even if overtime is necessary. On the contrary, there's plenty of evidence that coaches are averse to overtime in preseason situations.
Jeff Fisher, who uses the chart, went for two down by four points in the final four minutes in the preseason's first week vs. Seattle. Of course, this is not what the chart suggests because the chart always instructs coaches to play for the tie where applicable.
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The Fisher example supports my argument: why not go for two and get some practice? And none of you naysayers has really responded to the question, "Why not?"
The point is simple: the difference between 4 or 5 points is meaningless, a 6 point lead likely is meaningless but might not be. So, in this case, you take the "might not be meaningless" option. Especially in a preseason game, where practicing scenarios is a good idea (see Jeff Fisher).
In the heat of battle, decision-making can become cloudy. This is why even the best coaches keep 2-point charts. I think I am right about Shanny blowing it, but even if I'm not, the arrogance of the practice of not keeping a chart frightens me.
My point is simple. Whether the point is accepted or not by others, I am done here.