Quote:
Originally Posted by Mattyk
Skins are 6/33 on 3rd downs. 6 conversions in 3 games?? That's insanely bad.
What's interesting is they kick ass on 1st downs and average something close to 8 yards an per play. So something appears to be going horribly wrong on 2nd downs.
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I'm just looking back at my notes from the first three games, and it certainly appears that the tendency after an unsuccessful first down play (and we've had our share of successful ones for sure) is to reverse trend. If it's an incomplete pass, we like to run or screen in second down. If we ran for little gain, we like to take a shot, either at the sticks or down the field.
It's a strong trend.
The result appears to be a severe reliance on getting a big play when we try it. If not, a third down is nearly inevitable. And obviously, that third down figure is going to regress towards the mean a little bit, but it's going to be low as long as we are in third and longs.
And Portis is right that when we do get in third and short, we have the fun ability to get a procedure penalty and back it up to third and long.