The Tea Party thing was a little tongue and cheek.
I feel Rasmussen polling is an outlier for a few reasons. I rely more on the polling averages (
RealClearPolitics - Opinion, News, Analysis, Videos and Polls) and not just one poll, because they're all tilted a bit. Quinnipiac is usually on the mark, however, whereas Rasmussen has a tendency to overstate Republican opinion and badly missed the mark in a number of states during the mid-term elections. Given that unemployment is where it is and the country in general is in a sour mood, I don't think the president could ask for any better than 45% approval right now.
Basically his base will be there come 2012: Jews, blacks, hispanics (don't believe the hype) gays, and female voters. So you're talking about Obama and whomever the GOP nominates will be vying for about 20-25% of the electorate. Probably your middle class independent white male. Without offending anyone on the board, I would say someone in Schneed's demographic. I don't know his politics, but he's about as objective as they come. Right now Obama is faring well vs Republicans--not great-- in a few key states: Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia. If he can pluck 2 or 3 of those states, he's going to be pretty hard to beat.
Finally, I would add any poll that has Sarah Palin within striking distance of the front runner Mitt Romney would make me a little suspicious. Not because of it's lack of accuracy, but it just shows you how much people are paying attention. Her candidacy is DOA, even among the most right leaning Republicans. I think once we get on the other side of Labor Day weekend, settle this debt ceiling thing, let Rick Perry flex a little bit, things will get a little more interesting.
Edit: In the spirit of keeping this thread on topic, let's move additional comments to the presidential thread.