Commanders Post at The Warpath - View Single Post - North Korea's Kim Jong II Pushing Up Daisies

JoeRedskin · 12-20-2011, 12:32 PM

Ultimately, it's China's call. If Jong-un can win their support and demonstrate he can keep the Korean peninsula stable, he will remain in power. If not, expect China to replace him. The other main player, apparently, is the N. Korean Army, which was the basis of Jong-il's power. If he can satisfy the Army that they will remain preeminent and satisfy China that he will maintain power. If not, someone will replace him who can satisfy those two needs.

What would be bad is if Jong-un ends up being incompetent, is disposed of, and the Army and the Chinese each attempt to install their own person in power.

I am betting Jong-un is gone by 2015. Whether or not a civil war erupts is the question. And, if it does, what role, if any, will NK's burgeoning nuclear arsenal play (Would a crazy general lob a nuke at China? S. Korea? Japan?).

Scary. Just glad there is not a land bridge between here and there.

12-20-2011, 12:32 PM	#16
JoeRedskin Contains football related knowledge Join Date: Mar 2004 Location: Second Star On The Right Age: 63 Posts: 10,401	Re: North Korea's Kim Jong II Pushing Up Daisies Ultimately, it's China's call. If Jong-un can win their support and demonstrate he can keep the Korean peninsula stable, he will remain in power. If not, expect China to replace him. The other main player, apparently, is the N. Korean Army, which was the basis of Jong-il's power. If he can satisfy the Army that they will remain preeminent and satisfy China that he will maintain power. If not, someone will replace him who can satisfy those two needs. What would be bad is if Jong-un ends up being incompetent, is disposed of, and the Army and the Chinese each attempt to install their own person in power. I am betting Jong-un is gone by 2015. Whether or not a civil war erupts is the question. And, if it does, what role, if any, will NK's burgeoning nuclear arsenal play (Would a crazy general lob a nuke at China? S. Korea? Japan?). Scary. Just glad there is not a land bridge between here and there. __________________ Strap it up, hold onto the ball, and let’s go.