[Lotus]

Originally Posted by JoeRedskin

Jong-un is 28. While, historically, many dictators have held the reigns of power at a young age, I foresee no genius in Jong-un that would allow him to remain in power. I expect that more experienced party members will use him/undermine him as they attempt to increase their own power. Within a year or two, N. Korea will be a very unstable place. An unstable place with nuclear weapons.

The only reason we will miss Jong-il is that he was the evil we knew. In a few years, N. Korea will be the evil we don't know.

Originally Posted by JoeRedskin

Ultimately, it's China's call. If Jong-un can win their support and demonstrate he can keep the Korean peninsula stable, he will remain in power. If not, expect China to replace him. The other main player, apparently, is the N. Korean Army, which was the basis of Jong-il's power. If he can satisfy the Army that they will remain preeminent and satisfy China that he will maintain power. If not, someone will replace him who can satisfy those two needs.

What would be bad is if Jong-un ends up being incompetent, is disposed of, and the Army and the Chinese each attempt to install their own person in power.

I am betting Jong-un is gone by 2015. Whether or not a civil war erupts is the question. And, if it does, what role, if any, will NK's burgeoning nuclear arsenal play (Would a crazy general lob a nuke at China? S. Korea? Japan?).

Scary. Just glad there is not a land bridge between here and there.

That's what I'm sayin'. For all of his madness and flaws, Jong-il did not start a major war.

Jong-un, on the other hand, may do so. He may be driven to aggression to consolidate his power within NK or to show he has the cojones to rule or both. And given that he is certainly a spoiled brat who was raised by a madman, we have no reason to think that he will be any more stable or savvy than his dad. And he likely will be less so.

A hostile crazy spoiled brat with nukes. Yay!