[Gary84Clark]

Originally Posted by JoeRedskin

Ultimately, it's China's call. If Jong-un can win their support and demonstrate he can keep the Korean peninsula stable, he will remain in power. If not, expect China to replace him. The other main player, apparently, is the N. Korean Army, which was the basis of Jong-il's power. If he can satisfy the Army that they will remain preeminent and satisfy China that he will maintain power. If not, someone will replace him who can satisfy those two needs.

What would be bad is if Jong-un ends up being incompetent, is disposed of, and the Army and the Chinese each attempt to install their own person in power.

I am betting Jong-un is gone by 2015. Whether or not a civil war erupts is the question. And, if it does, what role, if any, will NK's burgeoning nuclear arsenal play (Would a crazy general lob a nuke at China? S. Korea? Japan?).

Scary. Just glad there is not a land bridge between here and there.

Joe, just curious, how do you know what China and North Korea will do? You speak with such certainty.