Commanders Post at The Warpath - View Single Post

12thMan · 12-28-2011, 05:49 PM

Interesting analysis.

There's a good chance Ron Paul wins Iowa next week. I think the question is by how much of a margin. If Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, and Newt Gingrich (though it appears Rick Santorum is surging) are all bunched together, I don't think it matters as much. There's very little chance Ron Paul wins New Hampshire. For that to happen would be just an incredible turn of events and would damn near sink Mitt Romney.

That said, Ron Paul is the X factor. If he decides to become a third party candidate it could hurt President Obama as much, if not more so, than Mitt Romney or whomever is the eventual Republican nominee. Ron Paul has cobbled together an interesting coalition of liberal, conservative, and libertarian supporters. Most of his views are considered fringe, but there are elements of his national security platform that resonates strongly with Obama supporters who essentially believe that Barack Obama sold them down the river on issues such as closing Gitmo, National Defense Authorization Act (indefinite detention of American citizens), Bin Laden should have gotten a fair trial, our covert drone operations in Yemen, Pakistan, and Afghanistan and other civil liberties that Ron Paul and his supporters believe are unconstitutional. And that's just the beginning.

At the end of the day it's still Mitt Romney's to lose, but he's going to have to earn it and appears that Republicans are very much in a speed dating mood when it comes to these candidates. Whatever happens on the right, President Obama is going to be a worthy candidate and very difficult to beat, especially with the economy on the mend.

12-28-2011, 05:49 PM	#652
12thMan MVP Join Date: May 2005 Location: washington, D.C. Posts: 11,460	Re: Meet The Candidates: 2012 GOP Thread Interesting analysis. There's a good chance Ron Paul wins Iowa next week. I think the question is by how much of a margin. If Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, and Newt Gingrich (though it appears Rick Santorum is surging) are all bunched together, I don't think it matters as much. There's very little chance Ron Paul wins New Hampshire. For that to happen would be just an incredible turn of events and would damn near sink Mitt Romney. That said, Ron Paul is the X factor. If he decides to become a third party candidate it could hurt President Obama as much, if not more so, than Mitt Romney or whomever is the eventual Republican nominee. Ron Paul has cobbled together an interesting coalition of liberal, conservative, and libertarian supporters. Most of his views are considered fringe, but there are elements of his national security platform that resonates strongly with Obama supporters who essentially believe that Barack Obama sold them down the river on issues such as closing Gitmo, National Defense Authorization Act (indefinite detention of American citizens), Bin Laden should have gotten a fair trial, our covert drone operations in Yemen, Pakistan, and Afghanistan and other civil liberties that Ron Paul and his supporters believe are unconstitutional. And that's just the beginning. At the end of the day it's still Mitt Romney's to lose, but he's going to have to earn it and appears that Republicans are very much in a speed dating mood when it comes to these candidates. Whatever happens on the right, President Obama is going to be a worthy candidate and very difficult to beat, especially with the economy on the mend.