Quote:
Originally Posted by Schneed10
I have to say this thread has turned into the best discussion we've had on this board for quite a while. Lots of good points being tossed around.
I just think the merits of either move should be measured not just on the likelihood that we'll win a superbowl, but also (and perhaps moreso) on the likelihood that we'll set our team back YEARS if we miss.
With Manning, all he costs is cap room. So if he sucks (yeah, right) or isn't right due to injury (possibly), you take a one-year dead cap hit - which won't be that bad given his stated intention to make a palatable deal. Otherwise, it's no harm no foul. You move on to finding your next QB - but by then the team will have the 6th overall pick this year, plus depth from other picks. The cap room Manning takes up comes with an opportunity cost, it represents players we can't sign in free agency. But that assumes our cap may approach the limit, which doesn't make sense given that we're currently something like $35 - $45 million UNDER the cap. And if we're thinking of shopping so much that we might approach that limit with Manning this year, then we're back to taking the wrong approach to free agency - the Cerrato approach. We're not going to do that.
With Griffin, you give up several picks. If he doesn't pan out you've lost significant young depth due to the lost picks. That's depth this team still needs bad. Missing out on that depth completely stalls this team's development in my mind. The lower cap number Griffin represents really isn't a factor either - as stated, we're so far under the cap it almost doesn't matter.
What people are failing to realize here is that with Manning, you KNOW you still need to find the QB of the future. With Griffin, it sure wouldn't make sense to shop for another QB until you realize he's a failure. By the time Griffin reaches failure status, you're scrambling. Manning gives you the benefit of taking your time over the course of three years to find his successor. You're not stuck reaching for someone.
So those arguments all center around the downside risk which is key to the discussion. As for the upside, if you don't think Peyton Manning gives you the upside to make deep playoff runs over the next three years, I can't help you. You're a lost soul.
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If I were a religious man, I would literally say a prayer that the Redskins FO isn't deciding to not worry about winning Super Bowls and is instead so terrified of making a mistake that they base decisions on that. Fortune favors the bold.
If you make good draft choices, they tend to work out. Bad luck can happen no matter what position you draft. Somehow people think they can talk about this as if Griffin comes with some curse attached which makes it unlikely he'll work out, while the picks spent elsewhere start off halfway to Canton.
And we "know" virtually nothing about what to expect from Manning. He isn't able to throw the ball effectively right now, and he needs nerve regeneration to happen before he does. That
probably will happen, but no one knows when. Nor does anyone know how the year off will affect him. Or a change of scenery. Or the psychology of his injuries. What we do know is that his stats have already shown a downward trend thru his 30s and now we're talking about signing him for his age 36 and beyond years. People are assuming way too much about him for starters.
And RG3 is a full 14 years younger. The decision should really be made on him alone. If the team believes he is going to be a great QB, then they should do what it takes to get him. Peyton Manning shouldn't even enter into that decision. He should be considered only if the decision on Griffin is made in the negative.