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Re: Kirk Cousins pick 4.7
According to Graziano, 14 teams started the same QB all season last year. That means there is a 67% chance our backup sees action over one year, and virtual certainty that our backup will start multiple games over the next 10-15 years. Add to that a QB that can run / take hits, and one that has already missed a year with an injury.. I think this was a great move.
In comparison, our 4th round picks for the past ~2 decades:
2011 - 4th - Roy Helu RB
2010 - 4th - Perry Riley LB
2008 - 4th - Justin Tryon CB
2005 - 4th - Manuel White FB
2001 - 4th - Sage Rosenfelds QB
2000 - 4th - Michael Moore G
1999 - 4th - Nate Stimson LB
1998 - 4th - Shawn Barber LB
1997 - 4th - Albert Connel WR
For the past 15 years, 3 out of 8 fourth round picks ended up being... average. Riley and Helu could do more, but for now we should say they're passable / average. I'd say Cousins is a MUCH safer pick in a position of need. With near certainty of playing multiple games over the next decade, a good backup QB makes the difference between winning/losing, and competing when the unthinkable happens (think TJ Yates, Cassel @ NE, Flynn).
And I agree completely that if New England, the Steelers or Ravens make this pick, everyone would be saying it was pure genius. But to be fair - we haven't done much over the past 20 years to deserve any credit -- yet. RG3 and Shanahan hopefully will change our reputation so our moves won't be questioned in the future..
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